Article: How Much Would Winning the Draft Lottery Change the Wild's Outlook?

[OldDutchChip]

Just now, Will D. Ness said:

Right?  I don't think this has been said enough around here.  

I also don't think he is going to want to leave when we make him the highest paid player in the league next year.

exactly! you got to be smart with the planning. Give him the current MOST $ (the cap and price will only go up) but he needs to be assured he is the leader. Give him the C and make him what Edwards is to the wolves. It's going to be tough to get him to sign early, so i still think he will wait it out, but giving him the reign of the franchise as a Captain and showing him your full commitment (in addition to what i previously mentioned - the legacy that is basically for the taking and new) - will likely mean he will bite and stay.

[Citizen Strife]

"It is mind-boggling that people put Ek, Boldi, Rossi and Faber in the same class as Kaprizov."

 

I didn't say that.  I said Ek, Boldy, and Faber were top line quality players.  Namely Ek, a person routinely touted as some weird "eh, he's a 2C or elite whatever something or other" so I put some numbers to back that up that his 30 goals were good enough to put him in a Top 25 discussion for center scoring.

My point was the Wild aren't lacking for talent, even some mythical top end can't miss player.  They HAVE that guy.  They just need more of the level of Ek, Boldy (or even Rossi and Faber right now) to get more secondary scoring.  They can get that sort of guy where they are at in the draft.  Trade a piece like Gus and 13, maybe someone goes for it.  But you don't need to be blowing up a team's immediate infrastructure for a slightly better ping pong ball.  It's worth seeing what future pieces they do have add to the equation before blowing it all up again.

Never did I say anything about saying he's at Kaprizov's point totals or any such thing.  Kaprizov was 10-15 in the entire league.  That isn't what I said, so please don't misconstrue things. 

Edited May 8 by Citizen Strife

[Citizen Strife]

Do note: blowing up a team's future for the here and now that isn't there to try and make the owner happy was what the FORMER GM would try to do.  At least Guerin kept his aces up his sleeve.  For every Stramel, there's a Kumpulainen or Heidt coming in the same draft, so extra ammunition.  

Or, we could just get Martin Hanzal or Matt Moulson again.  Those trades sure were something.  That stuff probably set the Wild back way worse than anything Guerin is or isn't doing now.

[OldDutchChip]

8 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

"It is mind-boggling that people put Ek, Boldi, Rossi and Faber in the same class as Kaprizov."

 

I didn't say that.  I said Ek, Boldy, and Faber were top line quality players.  Namely Ek, a person routinely touted as some weird "eh, he's a 2C or elite whatever something or other" so I put some numbers to back that up that his 30 goals were good enough to put him in a Top 25 discussion for center scoring.

My point was the Wild aren't lacking for talent, even some mythical top end can't miss player.  They HAVE that guy.  They just need more of the level of Ek, Boldy (or even Rossi and Faber right now) to get more secondary scoring.  They can get that sort of guy where they are at in the draft.  Trade a piece like Gus and 13, maybe someone goes for it.  But you don't need to be blowing up a team's immediate infrastructure for a slightly better ping pong ball.  It's worth seeing what future pieces they do have add to the equation before blowing it all up again.

Never did I say anything about saying he's at Kaprizov's point totals or any such thing.  Kaprizov was 10-15 in the entire league.  That isn't what I said, so please don't misconstrue things. 

When you say that Kaprizov is 10-15 in the entire league - that speaks for itself. You devalue your best player! Then  you assert that the status quo is acceptable, and we are on the right trajectory, which is completely false. We are approaching a cliff.

You need to prioritize your top player the best you can. Not to say - hey Kap "you know you had these guys you helped achieve career highs? remember hartman - (yeah he was always a scoring machine!) HA what about zuccy?  - (yeah he consistently put up a pt per game before he came to the Wild), now be content with what we have, we'll give you the money (cause you know you obviously care ONLY about the money will get more here and there is no such think as advertisement or "enough money" or even legacy money that he already may have, but no just buy our "vision" and in few years (a) our can't miss prospects will be ready (b) rossi will grow and become your Rantanen and NOT Mietinen and (c) those russian prospects will come in and be your best friends and be as good as you!"

yeah we have nothing to worry about. It's not like 29 other teams are not game planning FOR you and know that you alone are the team, and definitely not be in line ALL of them should you become available next year! No No No we got this. We have EK Boldy Rossi Faber We will also sign a MN son to replace you! Over the hill? no no - ripe and ready to contribute to the "winning way" and get us to that first round entry (one and done sure, but that's better than nothing??) You go on, leave the 18,000 fans, you won't find them where you end up oh no

Not weird, Wild. 

I am really not trying to direct this to your specific comment but overall it is such a lazy strategy. I am hoping the GM has a better and more inventive plan forward. There needs to be a clear message sent to Kaprizov that he is the leader and a team needs to take shape that maximizes his potential, and IF a there is a way to do it and it requires letting go and taking a risk - you have to consider. Not making an impulsive decision, but instead think multiple steps forward. I just have little confidence that our GM has that. He thus far played only checkers and failed to even attempt to learn chess.

Finally the fans need to realize that generational talents like Kaprizov do NOT come around every other year. If you think we'll be fine without Kaprizov and instead pivot to Faber led team ..... yikes i really hope this is not the same believe that is shared by GM. 

Edited May 8 by OldDutchChip

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Connelly is listed at 6'1 and 161 pounds.

You're right, I wouldn't. Let's just say he wouldn't be ready next season to make the jump. Why only 161? Likely his growth spurt was later and he hasn't begun to fill out yet. This is pretty typical of 17 year olds. But, he's got like 44 lbs. of muscle to put on! And, in this scenario, that's a bit more than 20% of his current weight.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

11 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

2nd line guys in the 40s-50s, and the less said about lines 3-4 the better.  

2nd line guys should get at least that, but Johansson only made it to 30. 🙄

Nearly 16 minutes per night and only missed 4 games. With the guys he's playing with, NoJo should have reached 50+, so imagine what Yurov replacing him could do for the Wild in the standings for 25-26.

[mnfaninnc]

8 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Namely Ek, a person routinely touted as some weird "eh, he's a 2C or elite whatever something or other" so I put some numbers to back that up that his 30 goals were good enough to put him in a Top 25 discussion for center scoring.

When determining the 1C/2C argument, I can see that Ek had the points to be considered low end 1C. However, wouldn't you also throw in a net goals, or at least net Xgoals in that same argument? Ek's value isn't just putting up points in that position, his value is putting up enough points and negating goals going the other way allowing Kaprizov and the other wing a little more room to be offensive. 

So, in an argument like this, Ek would be more compared to a Toews in his prime, or a Kopitar or Bergeron. He's not a McDavid, but has a pretty good track record of defending him. 

[Citizen Strife]

The main thing at play is Guerin had to do the buyouts, because it tied directly to saving money for Kaprizov's contract, plus the decision on Fiala v. Boldy (because they couldn't really have both at the moment).  I understand wanting to chase some rings every year, but regardless of what the team does, and who the team brings in, they are going to be $15m shorter than everyone else.

Yes, package the Nojos, Gaudreaus, etc...but the team couldn't win in 20-21 with Fiala AND everyone else breaking every record.  There's a lot that comes down to luck.  All the points or best defenseman in the world can't account for injuries, someone slipping on a banana peel, someone disappearing, etc.  Again, I'm not saying Guerin has done some industry wide sea change.  Who knows what he has to do to keep Leipold off his ass.  But saying Kaprizov is going to get a cup just because he leaves and goes elsewhere isn't always accurate.  Fiala left and didn't exactly win anything either, now did he?  Toronto and Edmonton have had the best players in the league for years.  Hasn't done them much good either...yet.

I'm all for keeping Kaprizov happy, but you can win a ring in like year 1, year 2, year 3, or you can wait a full decade to get one.  Saying the Wild are up shit creek because 1-2 bad years isn't always accurate.  For all we know, the Wild make the playoffs next year and beat the piss off Dallas or Colorado.  Not likely, but if Seattle can beat a crippled Colorado team, who knows.

I'm not the GM.  I just know saying Kaprizov is just ready to piss off to another team whether or not we drafted a Lindstrom or Silayev over a Jirichek or Greentree isn't likely.  There are lots of teams that haven't exactly been winners either.

It's almost as if winning a Stanley Cup is fucking hard.  Maybe I just have too much relentless realistic optimism.

Edited May 8 by Citizen Strife

[mnfaninnc]

12 hours ago, MrCheatachu said:

So yes, you can state that Bogosian is a better player than Teubert, and if you try to hide behind WAR you're just demonstrating the perils of blindly depending on statistics without thinking about what you are doing.

This is a hands down spike win for Bogosian. It doesn't take WAR to figure out who was the better player. Simply looking at the games played dictates who was the better player by a mile! There is no argument to even suggest that Teubert is at least as good. Bogosians looking at a silver stick in a couple of years. Teubert is selling shoes at footlocker.

[IllicitFive]

15 hours ago, Dean said:

I’m with old Dutch. Billy needs to do some big game hunting at the draft.  Kappy has one foot out the door .  Just think about that . Your franchise player doesn’t believe in the team.  How does that translate into a good culture in the room. The guy everyone looks to , to do everything for them doesn’t believe in what he’s doing .  It’s going to permeate the season all year .  That’s not a healthy culture. 

Maybe I have missed something so please fill me in. Where are we hearing that Kap has one foot out the door already and doesn't believe in the team?  If that is the case and you want to talk about culture in a locker room they better ship him immediately because that is a horrible mentality to have, just biding your time until you can leave.

If that was his mentality why wouldn't he also just skate and play half assed at the end of the year?  I have a hard time believing he has one foot out the door but will bust ass shift after shift at the end of a lost year.

Please fill me in where the "one foot out the door" narrative is coming from.

[mnfaninnc]

12 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

Maybe I have missed something so please fill me in. Where are we hearing that Kap has one foot out the door already and doesn't believe in the team?  If that is the case and you want to talk about culture in a locker room they better ship him immediately because that is a horrible mentality to have, just biding your time until you can leave.

The rumor is as shaky as the one where Tkachuk is going to demand being traded because he's sick of losing. Kaprizov merely said he's going to wait to sign an extension. Suddenly to some, the sky is falling, alarm bells went off, and typical Minnesota optimism kicked in.

[Will D. Ness]

12 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

Please fill me in where the "one foot out the door" narrative is coming from.

Media playing the tune for the fatalistic fan.

[IllicitFive]

Just now, mnfaninnc said:

The rumor is as shaky as the one where Tkachuk is going to demand being traded because he's sick of losing. Kaprizov merely said he's going to wait to sign an extension. Suddenly to some, the sky is falling, alarm bells went off, and typical Minnesota optimism kicked in.

Haha, sounds good, that was my assumption but you know, no longer omniscient, so figured double check.  To all fellow MN sports fans, lets take a collective deep breath. My first true deep dive into fandom was Vikes 98, and was so calmly told by my father when I was 9 as soon as wide left hit "Welcome to Minnesota sports, but there will be years like 87 and 91 with the twins too". Been a passionate, but not insane, fan since of most things MN sports.

Maybe if Kap has that "killer mentality" we all hope for, he wants to be the one who finally brings a cup in, cement a legacy and be THAT GUY. Rational has to be used too, 15 mil in the hole to start doesn't help a roster. Young guys are still being seasoned and learning, which takes years in hockey. Breath, patience, trust the process. If it fails, well, reboot and try again. That's what is fun about sports, the idea that hope springs eternal. While yes we must build a team to compete and Kap is a center piece, it takes time. Once more together everyone, in through the nose, out through the mouth. Enjoy the ride.

[Tony Abbott]

14 hours ago, MrCheatachu said:

Did he take a dump in your cereal?  Did he microwave leftover tuna in the breakroom?  How did Bogosian hurt you?

1. You don't think Teubert is better or worse? You cant figure out if a guy who's played 24 NHL games (also a defender with 12:39 atoi and a career -5 through 24 games) is a better or worse player than Bogo? 
2. In your 'dead cat bounce article' you posted the SPAR table through his career which clearly shows that while he hasnt been consistent, he hasn't hurt his team at every place he's gone.

 

By the way, that's through 16,821 minutes on ice.  There's absolutely no way you can compare that to Teubert's 306 minutes on ice.

So yes, you can state that Bogosian is a better player than Teubert, and if you try to hide behind WAR you're just demonstrating the perils of blindly depending on statistics without thinking about what you are doing.

 

OK, so he's better than a guy who played 306 minutes. Congrats?

I'd still put it in the category of "Everyone Loses." 

[IllicitFive]

2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

When you say that Kaprizov is 10-15 in the entire league - that speaks for itself. You devalue your best player! Then  you assert that the status quo is acceptable, and we are on the right trajectory, which is completely false. We are approaching a cliff.

What cliff? The one where we retain future assets? Draft capitol? Try to build longevity instead of a one year possibility then collapse with nothing in the pipe?

Lots of you don't like current projection of team but what would you like? To get you gotta give so what you wanna give and what are you hoping to get? Please not some trade Shaw for Rantanen type thing, lets keep it realistic and plausible. Other teams don't want to give up stuff either unless they get equal back.

[OldDutchChip]

41 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

What cliff? The one where we retain future assets? Draft capitol? Try to build longevity instead of a one year possibility then collapse with nothing in the pipe?

Lots of you don't like current projection of team but what would you like? To get you gotta give so what you wanna give and what are you hoping to get? Please not some trade Shaw for Rantanen type thing, lets keep it realistic and plausible. Other teams don't want to give up stuff either unless they get equal back.

The cliff is where Wild will be should they instead of Kaprizov prioritize those future assets you mention or any other player other than Kap.

Draft capital? That number 13 pick? or the 1st from last year? Which draft gem do we have that will replace Kaprizov? The dream that Yurov will be his clone? Rossi? Boldy? 18 year old Heidt that is breaking scoring records just like Beckman did? 

I would like the team to ensure that they best player (a TOP 5 player in this league) is their top priority. Period. To do that you have to instruct a C on his chest - you do it. To do that you have to trade favorites and/or desirable assets and prospects - you do it. You are in a bad situation with cap, so you need to really plan it out to perfection. It starts NOW, not next year but now. 

So yes, he leaves and Wild become worse off that Coyotes, worse off that Sens, worse off that ANY team out there. Might as well move the team and wait out for another expansion. Very pessimistic outlook for me on what's going to happen with Wild. 

Edited May 8 by OldDutchChip

[IllicitFive]

11 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

The cliff is where Wild will be should they instead of Kaprizov prioritize those future assets you mention or any other player other than Kap.

Draft capital? That number 13 pick? or the 1st from last year? Which draft gem do we have that will replace Kaprizov? The dream that Yurov will be his clone? Rossi? Boldy? 18 year old Heidt that is breaking scoring records just like Beckman did? 

I would like the team to ensure that they best player (a TOP 5 player in this league) is their top priority. Period. To do that you have to instruct a C on his chest - you do it. To do that you have to trade favorites and/or desirable assets and prospects - you do it. You are in a bad situation with cap, so you need to really plan it out to perfection. It starts NOW, not next year but now. 

So yes, he leaves and Wild become worse off that Coyotes, worse off that Sens, worse off that ANY team out there. Might as well move the team and wait out for another expansion. Very pessimistic outlook for me on what's going to happen with Wild. 

So Kap the captain/gm/owner?

I get that he is important but seems agreed top 5 ish player in the league. I would argue the pieces are more important than the one. Otherwise Austin Matthews, McDavid should be having parades every year. You know what those two teams are lacking? Stonger depth, or defense, or goalie.  I do not believe players should dictate the moves made, input sure, but run things? No chance.

With the cap, yes a plan is indeed needed. Like one where you get cap penalty back, contracts and older players start falling off and younger guys on entry level contracts free up maximum cap space to go out and snag high end free agents?  I tend to trust the guy who has the job to know what they are doing. I mean there are currently only 32 guys who have the job and maybe a handful more that can do it? Not even well, just do it.

I feel bad for the "worse off than the coyotes and sens, worse than ANY team". I mean they were basically folding 7 years ago right? Going to move?  The team isn't going anywhere, at worst hit reset and rebuild. At best, parades.  Devastating if Kap leaves? Absolutely. Franchise ending, not even close. I hope you can join me on the hopes and dreams wagon, its not so bad, we have room.

[MrCheatachu]

2 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

OK, so he's better than a guy who played 306 minutes. Congrats?

I'd still put it in the category of "Everyone Loses." 

You were the one who doubled down on not being able to determine if Teubert or Bogosian was the better player...yet you seem determined to use the WAR statistic to dunk on Bogosian, again. 

I mean, there are a number of ways that you could show the value of draft picks.  We've seen plots on aggregated number of NHL games vs. Draft Position, for example Dobber prospects is a good indication the higher you move up in the first round, the more likely you're going to hit on a career NHL player.  Basically, the likelihood of getting a guy like Bogosian (842 games) compared to Teubert (24 games):

Or Hockey Graphs has an aggregated points/draft position:

But neither of those would allow you to clearly take pot shots at Bogosian.

[Tony Abbott]

You're conflating Bogosian having a good career from a personal standpoint with him bringing value to teams. I don't necessarily think "sticking around" is a virtue, but it's enabled Bogosian to have a nice career. His teams have rarely been better for it -- and you don't need WAR to tell you that.

[OldDutchChip]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

The rumor is as shaky as the one where Tkachuk is going to demand being traded because he's sick of losing. Kaprizov merely said he's going to wait to sign an extension. Suddenly to some, the sky is falling, alarm bells went off, and typical Minnesota optimism kicked in.

There is no optimism because our GM is as stubborn as a mule. Our best player is undervalued by the fans. And people think - money is what each athlete chooses over other things. There is a reason why he signed 5 years. At year 3 he is further away from reaching THE GOAL then when he got here. In fact, i'd argue that we are in the worse situation given the state of unknown for how things will play out outside of Kap. The draft picks are not really playing out of their minds. Goal tending is horrible. Prospects have yet to really show anything. Yurov may or may not be great. Who knows - maybe he will be the next Pavel Bure or the next Valeriy Bure. Thats a big difference right? Kap has a family, a goal in mind, a future to look forward to. The odds are definitely against us in retaining if we don't do something big. That's just it. 

Edited May 8 by OldDutchChip

[Protec]

Old Dutch - What you got in the avatar? Kasparitis Evil Twin? 

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, IllicitFive said:

So Kap the captain/gm/owner?

I get that he is important but seems agreed top 5 ish player in the league. I would argue the pieces are more important than the one. Otherwise Austin Matthews, McDavid should be having parades every year. You know what those two teams are lacking? Stonger depth, or defense, or goalie.  I do not believe players should dictate the moves made, input sure, but run things? No chance.

With the cap, yes a plan is indeed needed. Like one where you get cap penalty back, contracts and older players start falling off and younger guys on entry level contracts free up maximum cap space to go out and snag high end free agents?  I tend to trust the guy who has the job to know what they are doing. I mean there are currently only 32 guys who have the job and maybe a handful more that can do it? Not even well, just do it.

I feel bad for the "worse off than the coyotes and sens, worse than ANY team". I mean they were basically folding 7 years ago right? Going to move?  The team isn't going anywhere, at worst hit reset and rebuild. At best, parades.  Devastating if Kap leaves? Absolutely. Franchise ending, not even close. I hope you can join me on the hopes and dreams wagon, its not so bad, we have room.

Kaprizov should get Captaincy. It should have happened already. Which tells me it won't. And even if Spurge is traded, his C will go to Ek. whyyyyyy??? Welll because GM will say he deserves it, he is the heart and soul of the team. Well Ek is also on a contract with the team and will likely stay as long as we want him here. He leads fine with an A on his jersey. So be smart - give this role to Kap. This bind him to this team, make a connection that will mean something to him when the following year rolls around. He is not just a side character, but a main actor.....Side tracking here, back to your comment - 

Re your point about him being a GM/Owner - look the GM needs to optimize his team around an identity. We are blessed with an amazingly talented player that the franchise NEVER had. It makes sense from both success and business stand point. 

Granted the franchise will still be here and people will still watch, it is just a sad time that awaits us then. 🍻

[OldDutchChip]

2 minutes ago, Protec said:

Old Dutch - What you got in the avatar? Kasparitis Evil Twin? 

You know it! 🍻 haha actually i think its Darius himself!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

Kaprizov should get Captaincy. It should have happened already. Which tells me it won't. And even if Spurge is traded, his C will go to Ek. whyyyyyy??? Welll because GM will say he deserves it, he is the heart and soul of the team. Well Ek is also on a contract with the team and will likely stay as long as we want him here. He leads fine with an A on his jersey. So be smart - give this role to Kap.

You do know they gave the letter to Kaprizov over JEE last year, do you not?

If Spurgeon were gone, it's extremely likely they would give Kaprizov the option.

Also think it's possible you missed the conversation about why he signed a 5 year deal originally. It was due to cap constraints, and it will allow him to sign a larger deal with the Wild sooner. There are about zero reasons to believe Kaprizov is heading out the door, other than those conjured up by anxious fans.

The Wild are building towards 25-26, and will look to sign him to an extension prior to that season after they figure out what other players they can bring in to help the team contend.

[OldDutchChip]

10 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

You do know they gave the letter to Kaprizov over JEE last year, do you not?

If Spurgeon were gone, it's extremely likely they would give Kaprizov the option.

Also think it's possible you missed the conversation about why he signed a 5 year deal originally. It was due to cap constraints, and it will allow him to sign a larger deal with the Wild sooner. There are about zero reasons to believe Kaprizov is heading out the door, other than those conjured up by anxious fans.

The Wild are building towards 25-26, and will look to sign him to an extension prior to that season after they figure out what other players they can bring in to help the team contend.

i am saying he should be captain no matter if Spurge is here or not. 

"Also think it's possible you missed the conversation about why he signed a 5 year deal originally. It was due to cap constraints, and it will allow him to sign a larger deal with the Wild sooner." 

i missed that, please elaborate on this if you can.

i think he was very firm that he wasn't "feeling" the 8 year term in MN and pushed for 5 years. we were planning to offer 8 and then agreed on 5 (he actually wanted less than 5)

Its all moot as we have no idea what he is thinking and planning. but thinking that he will come in and sign just because you offer him the money is a bit naive in my opinion.