Article: The Wild Are Still Ahead of the Game With Danila Yurov

[Tony Abbott]

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[Imyourhuckleberry]

Yeah, Yurov gets another season near family(currently with the KHL franchise closest to where his family lives) and a real chance at a championship.

While he could develop with the Wild next season, it would be another year of the heavy cap penalties where nobody thinks they'll be real cup contenders.

The decision makes sense for him and shouldn't make him any less effective when he arrives for that 25-26 season the team has been building towards, at least not from an individual perspective. He'll continue to improve his strength, skill, and English skills, which are already pretty solid.

While it could have been nice for him to develop a little chemistry with teammates next season, it seems like he might just be the type of talent(size, skill, 2-way game) that will work in any lineup combination.

[Dean]

IMO the faster you get a Russian over here the better. The politics of Russian hockey . The politics of the world could change in a year. Flyers goalie got drafted into military.  The situation seems calmer now but who knows. I do know it’s not as cut and dry over there as it is here. 
     I also think it’s bad because Kappy doesn’t get to play with him until maybe playoffs if they make it.  In a year he’s considering resigning. When he does get here we know he gets  Fred as a linemate . It won’t be kappy till following season after a missed playoffs or total flame out . That season will be the one we’re waiting till trade deadline to see if kappy resigns. I can’t see a good season coming next year if Billy thinks Fred an Jo Jo are good.  So who knows we may only see a partial season of him and kappy. Then kappy is gone . 
     Watching Dallas I really think Billy needs to get a good character player with talent in the middle six to mentor k-nat an ohgren . I’m sorry but our leadership is worthless when it comes to mentoring or anything. Guys who get frustrated trying to tie there skates shouldn’t be mentors  or the guys you count on . 

[Dean]

I criticize the players a lot and can be harsh. I do think they all are good people, they do care, and  give effort.  It’s the level to which they do these things I criticize.  Lazy to me is not showing any urgency when you’ve been outside of playoffs all season. No compete to me is bringing up your future stud goalie and leaving him out to dry in his first game.  It’s also a lack of character as a player to let that happen.  In the exit interviews the players said they felt sorry for themselves. I really respect the honesty an owning it  but it also should be concerning. . Why is that mentality in the room? I get human nature but all season? Where are the leaders to nip it in the butt? It’s hard to find sympathy for young men getting paid well to play a kids game as an adult.  So It should be easy to refocus not let it fester.  I think they all are good  , high character people but there is another level to that which good teams have in there leadership.  Ek , kappy and Faber are leaders. They prove it in their work ethic. Why that’s not enough leadership idk?  I just think it’s obvious they need some new voices to go along with those 3. Especially in bottom 6 with all these kids coming. 

[Protec]

I agree. There's some goofiness going on that undermines the gains MN had made. Obvious things seem to float past the GM and Coaches in recent months. 

Like you said the attitudes need to become that of winners not losers. We saw the Wild with confidence and chemistry. That is infectious. Look at Boston right now. 

MN has talent enough. They're not far from cap freedom but they need to steady the ship. 

[mnfaninnc]

I was hoping Yurov would come over this season. The caveat being that he (of course) was bulked up. At 6'1" I'd expect him in at 205. I don't think he's there yet. 

I think that was the biggest deal for Kaprizov, he came in at 201 and was thick. So, he didn't get bounced around, instead teams found out how solid he was. 

If he thinks he needs 1 more year, well, something north of $400k is better than he would get in the A. I do think we can classify him as being ahead of Ogie and Dino. So, their play this coming season will be an excellent judge of what to expect out of Yurov. 

I am beginning to feel a bit of urgency right now, for the right now. I think it is really time to start switching gears and instead of going for the future, we start going for the present. I'm feeling good about the ping pong balls tonight. 

 

[Up North Guy]

4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm feeling good about the ping pong balls tonight. 

Balls.....still 13th

[mnfaninnc]

14 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

Balls.....still 13th

I still think the league owes us. When I say this, it's kind of like trying to time stocks or time slot machines. There's a certain timing involved with luck too. 

Say what you want about bribing and conspiracy with NYR and Chicago getting top picks. They are original 6 franchises in large markets, and it seems like those kind of markets are the ones getting "lucky" after Edmonton's run of top picks. I suppose you can throw the Devils into that same pot. 

But luck also tends to be a 50/50 venture. While that may be the average, there are times when a team can go on a "luck" run with a few years of sunshine on them. I'm saying we're due for that. 

Sometimes, though, we don't see it until well after it has happened. In this case, it very well could be that Covid and Russia/Ukraine war came about at just the right time for the Wild. Every pick in '21 and '22 was more of a crap shoot. '20 was too, but, there was a little more data to go with. Since we had top picks, at least 3 in the 1st 2 rounds from '21-23, that might have been our "luck" run. 

But, we still haven't had that league level run where ping pong balls fall our way, and players become available just in time for us. I do think we have a really good bunch of prospects coming, and am looking for that franchise changing player. For me, it's a Tkachuk, or someone who plays the same type of game with the same type of results. 

So, what would these drafts look like if luck was shining down on us? Mid to late round picks in these drafts would also come through, as well as complete hits on the top picks. That would mean that Lambos figures it out, and Masters and Spacek also develop to play useful roles with the big club. Guys like Milne and Bankier take the next step and become solid pegs for the big club. 

To quote Angels in the Outfield: "It could happen!"

[Will D. Ness]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

There's a certain timing involved with luck too. 

Gambler's fallacy?  Aren't you old enough to know better?  😀

[mnfaninnc]

On 5/8/2024 at 11:38 AM, Will D. Ness said:

Gambler's fallacy?  Aren't you old enough to know better?  😀

I'm old enough, actually past old enough. The thing is that these things do tend to pay out on timing. It's the same with teams, like NYR, they got picks they never should have gotten and the odds would say they shouldn't have. But, sometimes, luck cycles into your preferred team, and sometimes it's your preferred region. 

For instance, the Twins got lucky enough to move up and get a real good outfield talent. This year, it appears that the Vikings moved up and got their QB of the future and a Danielle Hunter replacement, both on rookie contracts. 

Maybe this is the year that Guerin starts moving around to pick the guys he wants, although, you could say he's been doing this already. Wallstedt was an excellent pick that he moved up for. Maybe the draft luck was already baked in on the last 3 drafts where almost everyone was a crap shoot? And maybe, just maybe, we've got the right free agent falling in our laps next offseason? Maybe we do this year if Skjei wants to come home?

[Will D. Ness]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm old enough, actually past old enough. The thing is that these things do tend to pay out on timing. It's the same with teams, like NYR, they got picks they never should have gotten and the odds would say they shouldn't have. But, sometimes, luck cycles into your preferred team, and sometimes it's your preferred region. 

For instance, the Twins got lucky enough to move up and get a real good outfield talent. This year, it appears that the Vikings moved up and got their QB of the future and a Danielle Hunter replacement, both on rookie contracts. 

Maybe this is the year that Guerin starts moving around to pick the guys he wants, although, you could say he's been doing this already. Wallstedt was an excellent pick that he moved up for. Maybe the draft luck was already baked in on the last 3 drafts where almost everyone was a crap shoot? And maybe, just maybe, we've got the right free agent falling in our laps next offseason? Maybe we do this year if Skjei wants to come home?

"Timing" is a statistical fallacy of which causes gamblers to become degenerate.

But it is fun to play as I like to gamble.  

Now don't get this "timing" confused with timing in hockey of which is a skill.  

Also, don't get this confused with the timing of our "window of opportunity" which evolves around one guy named Kirill.  This window is cracking open right now.  

So when you say the "right" free agent to fall into our laps at the moment this window opens, well what makes the the "right" free agent certainly isn't just a craps shoot... it is more of an awareness.  I hope the BG has that awareness and has the capacity to engineer it into reality.

Although they do say luck is better than skill and maybe luck is BG's only hope.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

"Timing" is a statistical fallacy of which causes gamblers to become degenerate.

This "timing" is being in the right place at the right time. And that's kind of what I mean. The timing is cyclical unless it's fixed (which is not the debate here). Nothing really runs on an average, it's above or below. Our luck as a franchise has mostly been below with what the league gives us.

One example would be our new franchise, and CBJ's. We got shafted in players, castoffs. We had to build from scratch. However, Vegas' team came in just in time. They got better rules for expansion (and paid more), and they came in right as there was a major cap crunch for most teams. They took full advantage of both and got an embarrassment of riches both for the present and the future. They can do what they're doing now because of how they were set up to begin with. That was "timing."

There's stories about a person playing slots all day, getting up to go to the bathroom, someone new steps in and they hit the jackpot. The person comes back, surprised and jaded because that was all of their money. That's "timing" for both people.

Some teams have a year where the schedule falls favorably for them. It's not just the days off or the trips, but it seems like whenever they play the really good teams, their stars are injured too and they steal one. That's "timing" and luck. 

The way we went this past season, we hit good teams when they were completely healthy, and our stars were out and the team had the flu going through it. Remember when we had the measles go through the team? Well, that's "timing" and some pretty poor luck.

[Will D. Ness]

16 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

This "timing" is being in the right place at the right time. And that's kind of what I mean. The timing is cyclical unless it's fixed (which is not the debate here). Nothing really runs on an average, it's above or below. Our luck as a franchise has mostly been below with what the league gives us.

One example would be our new franchise, and CBJ's. We got shafted in players, castoffs. We had to build from scratch. However, Vegas' team came in just in time. They got better rules for expansion (and paid more), and they came in right as there was a major cap crunch for most teams. They took full advantage of both and got an embarrassment of riches both for the present and the future. They can do what they're doing now because of how they were set up to begin with. That was "timing."

There's stories about a person playing slots all day, getting up to go to the bathroom, someone new steps in and they hit the jackpot. The person comes back, surprised and jaded because that was all of their money. That's "timing" for both people.

Some teams have a year where the schedule falls favorably for them. It's not just the days off or the trips, but it seems like whenever they play the really good teams, their stars are injured too and they steal one. That's "timing" and luck. 

The way we went this past season, we hit good teams when they were completely healthy, and our stars were out and the team had the flu going through it. Remember when we had the measles go through the team? Well, that's "timing" and some pretty poor luck.

I guess we are on the same page... I think.  

Unless something is fixed, it cannot be "due".  Slot machines are fixed and can be "due".   Ping pong balls are not (unless there is a conspiracy 😀). 

The regression to the mean is not cause and effect.  Nojo isn't due to randomly play better next year but since it is a contract year, he is likely to give a shit and therefore play better.

[mnfaninnc]

49 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

Unless something is fixed, it cannot be "due".  Slot machines are fixed and can be "due".   Ping pong balls are not (unless there is a conspiracy 😀). 

Let me try this way. If you are out playing golf, and have a game like mine (the scenic route) there are times when you get bounces. You get good ones and bad ones. Sometimes, you get a run of good bounces. Sometimes you get a run of bad bounces. Sometimes they even out in the round, sometimes they do not. Sometimes you get a whole round (or tournament) where luck was just on your side. 

Typically, all of this evens out over time, but I've found more often than not, it tends to run in cycles not every other time being good or bad. Assuming things aren't fixed, you would then have a feeling when things would be due. 

For instance, we had a black hole of draft picks from about '05-'09. Some were top picks. Was it just poor picking, or getting unlucky? I'd suggest some of it was merely poor luck, though DR didn't really have much of a scouting team. 

So, especially with the lower draft picks that don't hit, most of this is just simply a numbers game and luck. Benn and Klingberg were 5th round picks that made it for Dallas in a pretty close proximity. Sometimes, you get these hits way above average.  Sometimes it seems like none of them pan out. Kind of the luck of the draw.

Can anyone explain NYR's luck or Chicago's luck in the lottery outside of it being fixed (which I do highly suspect)? It's simply timing and good luck. We haven't had it in our franchise history. We're due. And, by franchise history, I'm talking about luck with the ping pong balls, not luck with nabbing Kaprizov in the 5th round.