Article: The Wild May Have Trouble Moving Gustavsson This Summer

[Justin Wiggins]

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[B1GKappa97]

I don't see them trading Gus, not unless somebody comes in with an offer that's too good to pass up. That would mean they'd be looking for an entirely new goalie going into '25-'26 once MAF retires and relying entirely on Wallstedt based off just one season of starting, which seems like a big risk. 

Given how they've slow-played him to this point, that doesn't make much sense to then throw him into the fire and expect him to carry the team. 

Maybe they just want to see Wallstedt solidfy himself a little more in the AHL. From what I've read, he still had some rough games down there last year and not every team will be the Blackhawks or Sharks when he's starting full-time in the big leagues.

I think it fits the FO's MO more to give Wallstedt ample opportunities to prove he's too good for the AHL next year before they promote him too early. 

 

[Citizen Strife]

I don't think there's a "lose-lose" or a "win-lose" situation here.  A win would be someone willing to parlay a higher draft spot (so Gus and 13 for a Top 10 maybe), or a 2nd round pick if possible.  That'd be a tall ask, but seems about the starting point for what the team really needs.  Maybe a team pawns off a 2nd or 3rd line winger with scoring (the Wild's immediate need).

If neither of those three things happen, giving up Gus just to give up is a bit much.  Gus has an extra year, so they can play desperate at the TDL if nothing comes of it and he kinda rebounds.  However, if he rebounds, then that's all the Wild could ask for.  A cheap(ish) starting goaltender to take the brunt off of Wallstedt.  

The most important question is whether the return for Gus AND the extra money takes a $3-4m 2nd winger into a $5-7m range and get someone a lot better.  Guerin has to weigh the Yurov situation, since it is entirely possible he's that replacement in a year's time anyway.

They aren't winning anything soon anyway.  There's no sense panicking over what ifs until 25-26 anyway.  Let other team's see what they are willing to give, and back out if its not worth it.

It's also important to see if things like Gus's performance and Spurgeon/Foligno's/Gaudreau injuries are the new norm or just a down year.

Edited April 22 by Citizen Strife

[Imyourhuckleberry]

If Gustavsson is in Minnesota for most of the summer(seeing the Rossi results from last year), he will likely come into camp much better next season. Seems like he has gotten the message and understands where he needs to improve.

He was the Wild's best goalie this season, statistically, so moving him doesn't seem like the best idea. Everyone is tradeable, but the Wild should need to be blown away by an offer in order to move Gustavsson.

[Will D. Ness]

Is this idea of Fleury being a mentor to the Wall somewhat overvalued and romanticized?  

While I think it would be a positive, I don't think it is the pivotal variable that would necessitate the trading of Gus.  My bet is we roll with Gus as #1, Fleury as #2 and Wallstedt stays in Iowa but gets brought up for a number of games or if there is an injury.

We should also take into consideration that Fleury might want to stay in the organization and therefore be that mentor after he retires.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

WHL update:

#1 Saskatoon Blades meet #5 Moose Jaw Warriors in WHL Eastern Conference final

That series begins with home games for the Blades — Game 1 will be April 26 with Game 2 the following night at Sasktel Centre. Saskatoon should be heavy favorites.

#2 Prince George Cougars(with Riley Heidt[3G, 13A in 9 playoff games]) take on the #3 Portland Winterhawks in the other semifinals matchup. This series doesn't start until April 29th, but will feature the top 2 goal scoring teams in the league, and should have plenty of excitement. These teams were within 1 standings point on the year with Portland being in the tougher division--should be a battle.

I added the rankings numbers based upon standings points on the year. Regular season, Moose Jaw finished 14 points behind Saskatoon in the same division.

[B1GKappa97]

58 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I don't think there's a "lose-lose" or a "win-lose" situation here.  A win would be someone willing to parlay a higher draft spot (so Gus and 13 for a Top 10 maybe), or a 2nd round pick if possible.  That'd be a tall ask, but seems about the starting point for what the team really needs. 

Ooh, I like this idea! 

[mnfaninnc]

Metallurg plays game 3 today. They are tied at 0 after 1.

Saginaw dropped game 6 5-0 last night, game 7 comes Tuesday.

I've read a little Russo this morning as the paywall was breached. There seems to be a lot of concern about Kaprizov leaving because he doesn't think he can win here. I say it's bunk. It's way too soon for Kaprizov to form an opinion, mainly because the guys to build this into a contender are either barely here or not here yet. The roster in front of him is not the contender roster he would be looking for.

On that, I'm feeling a little more confident that Yurov makes the jump. I think Heinzy will have a lot of young players, and I think he'll have a more open eye to the young players taking veteran spots. Dino and Ogie have come over, and looking at their progression, one would have to conclude that Yurov is finally ready.

I get that this is an article about trading Goose. I would do this with extreme caution. In Russo's article, it states that there will be summer check ins which will be monitoring strength/conditioning. With a couple of guys like Ek and Ogie, I'm sure they can motivate Goose to come in in better shape. I would imagine that both Rossi and Goose are going to be looked at with a critical eye. If they're not getting it done, this will be a sign to look at moving the player. 

Speaking of Rossi, I think another 15 lbs. would be ideal. 10 upper body, 5 lower body. I saw a night and day difference in explosion last season, but I also saw a player getting worn down in the spring. Edge work and faceoffs would be the things I'd target. He will gain far more assists if he can have some skill guys with him. I think goals in the 20s is about where he'll be. Even late in the year, I saw him lining up for faceoffs in the offensive zone, and placing his stick down first. He needs better strategies here, and Mikko is a perfect mentor for him.

With goalies, you can count on there will be injuries. The Wall, in theory, could get about 10 starts. But, when opportunity called this season, he was also on the shelf. I have no problem working a 3 goalie tandem at times, and I think Guerin should keep some money back for things like this. 

Another thing that was mentioned by Russo was what if the Wild fail to make the playoffs next season? I don't see that as a big deal IF the young guys are getting experience. If it's because we're having to play Lettieris and Lucchinis, then that's bad, but if the young kids are getting valuable experience that will help them down the road, that is something that needs to happen. Hunt was a good example. He opened up a couple of inside lanes while up here and got ole'd. He needs that experience because not many in the A have moves like that. 

I also think an underlying theme that Russo didn't expressly talk about was bulking up. Some of the vets need to commit to this too. Hartman in particular. As a pest, he needs full strength, and to me, that right shoulder area still was not right. He needs to strengthen all of that area. There are others who need some strength too. Brodin could really use it as his skating isn't quite as impressive now. 

Russo also said that Guerin may be looking for trade/UFA help. He fell on his sword talking about not getting enough depth at both levels, but, how do you prepare for the run of injuries at the N level, especially, important players? You really can't with $15m in cap penalties too. There is a very fine balance between having that depth and blocking the kids. I would err on not blocking the kids. 

I do think that moving down the depth chart will be Walker, Beckman, and more of the A guys. It's a huge offseason for them, because the guys who come in chiseled are the guys who will move up. I really hope that Beckman takes this to heart and puts in the work. Not conditioning, strengthening is what's needed. With these check ins, this will likely determine who is traded out.

[Pewterschmidt]

59 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

10 upper body, 5 lower body.

This is next level

[Protec]

As long as the glutes are growing he should be fine.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

34 minutes ago, Protec said:

As long as the glutes are growing he should be fine.

I thought that said, "as long as the glutes are glowing" the first time I read that.

🤣

 

[mnfaninnc]

Metallurg with a huge OT win: 2-1. Takes a 3-0 stranglehold on the series. All 3 of these games have been ultra close. I've got no other data on the game.

[mnfaninnc]

I wish I had a better handle on how our scouting department is run and how many scouts we've got looking at players. I'm wondering if Guerin should be hiring some scouts for the A playoffs, N playoffs to get some good idea of what's out there for trade/FA market. 

And, I think we can still trade with people who are not in the playoffs. Kalisha mentioned CBJ and New Jersey. I wonder if there was any way to pry Brady Tkachuk loose from Ottawa?

[Up North Guy]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I wonder if there was any way to pry Brady Tkachuk loose from Ottawa?

There were rumors he was not happy with Ottawa. That would be huge. Talk about changing a team's attitude in one move! I watched a good bit of the Colorado-Winnipeg game last night. That was big boy game all the way. The Wild were miles away from playing that type of game.

Edited April 22 by Up North Guy

[Dango]

There are some  teams that don't have a lot of draft picks unless Cap Friendly isn't listing them accurately so maybe there's some wheeling and dealing opportunities to be had .We look at our team,   but with 15 teams in the playoffs not winninng the cup , 8 ,1st round exits  they wont be content either .   A good number of those teams wont be satisfied with all 3 areas of their team .  Some will want a goalie  , some more defense others more offense  etc.

[Dean]

IMO trade Gus if it helps upgrade the team. Same with Rossi. I think the only young untouchables should be  Faber and bolds .  I look at Charlie coyle and how many years it took him to be a consistent player .  Rossi could take awhile or never become that 1 or 2 playoff center. 
    What I heard in that end of season presser is Billy knows kappy wants to win. I can’t imagine a guy from Russia cares if he spends his whole career in Minnesota if he’s not on a competitive playoff team. A team that can win rounds. His friends are in Florida an New York.so why would he stay here if Billy doesn’t get to work asap.? Being able to give him that longer contract doesn’t matter. The superstars are starting to show they like shorter deals . So they get more bites at the apple.

   What I heard in that presser is Billy gets the urgency of building something that kappy stays for. Whether Billy can do it or not idk. It needs to start this summer. They can’t wait for these kids to take 5 years to develop into maybe or maybe not playoff players.   He needs to do better identifying upgrades of positional players at a discount . He needs to do something about the two boat anchors of Fred and Jo Jo . You can’t have a playoff team with those two dragging your lines down. He needs to bring in some toughness. They actually hit in the playoffs. Something we don’t have to deal with because we’re never there. He needs to get some size and nasty on the backend because you go nowhere in playoffs without it .

   Billy needs to build a playoff team asap or I really think kappy walks. It can’t be fun for a guy with so much talent to be embarrassed constantly by his below average team mates. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, Dean said:

IMO trade Gus if it helps upgrade the team. Same with Rossi. I think the only young untouchables should be  Faber and bolds .

I can't fully disagree, but in my opinion, trading Gus only opens up $1.25M because they are paying Fleury for a $2.5M farewell tour, and that should be about $1M less based upon his level of play for last the season. At 40 years old, it's hard to see him elevating his play significantly.

Whereas, Gus is entering his prime and is just a year removed from finishing 2nd in the NHL in save percentage. There isn't a backup goalie on the team for 25-26 if they elevate Wallstedt and Fleury rides off into the sunset.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

7 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Metallurg with a huge OT win: 2-1. Takes a 3-0 stranglehold on the series. All 3 of these games have been ultra close. I've got no other data on the game.

If they win it all, that seems to give Yurov even more reason to move along to the NHL. If he's already led his team in scoring and won the biggest prize in his current league, it seems like moving to the next level just makes sense.

[MacGyver]

18 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

There seems to be a lot of concern about Kaprizov leaving because he doesn't think he can win here. I say it's bunk.

Don't kid yourself. I'd say it's 50/50 at best if Kaprizov stays. He's on a team who didn't make the playoffs and and very easily could miss again next year. You go from this to a Stanley Cup contender in three years? Highly doubtful. We couldn't get out of the first round after having the best regular season in franchise history. They have locked up all their aging veterans and are putting all their hopes on a handful of prospects who aren't even here yet and for all we know may not ever get here. This does not bode well for a elite hockey player who's singular goal is to win a Stanley Cup. He has to look around at the other elite teams in the league and wonder what it must be like playing with some other elite players on winning teams. Compare that to expending all your talent on a team that you are trying to drag across the finish line just to get into the playoffs  and still can't do it. I see Kaprizov following the same path as Panarin. After all they have the same agent. 

Does anyone really think Kaprizov is going to lock himself long term into this team? Kaprizov wouldn't do it the first time and his reasoning had to be in a large part he didn't want to find himself locked into a bottom tier team like this.  After three years and looking where this team is at what incentive does he have to do it now? But this is what Billy is going to want him to do. 8X whatever it takes. Billy's only leverage here is to throw as much money as he possibly can at Kaprizov. Only problem with that is money is not Kaprizov's motivation, winning a Stanley Cup is and the sooner the better . 

Easy for us to look at all the possible prospects as elite players and pencil them all in on the starting line up as top six players. We have no skin in the game. All we have invested is emotion. Kaprizov has skin in the game. Does he see all these prospects as top sixers and a Stanley Cup contending team in three years like we speculate here?

Someone mentioned what it would take to get  Brady Tkachuk from Ottowa? Number one how on earth would we ever fit a Tkachuk size salary on this team? If Kaprizov leaves then maybe. And why would Tkachuk want to land here when he could go anywhere in the league he wanted? Sometimes between these prospects and trade dreams we really get into fantasy land. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

Don't kid yourself. I'd say it's 50/50 at best if Kaprizov stays. He's on a team who didn't make the playoffs and and very easily could miss again next year. You go from this to a Stanley Cup contender in three years? Highly doubtful. We couldn't get out of the first round after having the best regular season in franchise history. They have locked up all their aging veterans and are putting all their hopes on a handful of prospects who aren't even here yet and for all we know may not ever get here. This does not bode well for a elite hockey player who's singular goal is to win a Stanley Cup. He has to look around at the other elite teams in the league and wonder what it must be like playing with some other elite players on winning teams. Compare that to expending all your talent on a team that you are trying to drag across the finish line just to get into the playoffs  and still can't do it. I see Kaprizov following the same path as Panarin. After all they have the same agent. 

Does anyone really think Kaprizov is going to lock himself long term into this team? Kaprizov wouldn't do it the first time and his reasoning had to be in a large part he didn't want to find himself locked into a bottom tier team like this.  After three years and looking where this team is at what incentive does he have to do it now? But this is what Billy is going to want him to do. 8X whatever it takes. Billy's only leverage here is to throw as much money as he possibly can at Kaprizov. Only problem with that is money is not Kaprizov's motivation, winning a Stanley Cup is and the sooner the better . 

Easy for us to look at all the possible prospects as elite players and pencil them all in on the starting line up as top six players. We have no skin in the game. All we have invested is emotion. Kaprizov has skin in the game. Does he see all these prospects as top sixers and a Stanley Cup contending team in three years like we speculate here?

Someone mentioned what it would take to get  Brady Tkachuk from Ottowa? Number one how on earth would we ever fit a Tkachuk size salary on this team? If Kaprizov leaves then maybe. And why would Tkachuk want to land here when he could go anywhere in the league he wanted? Sometimes between these prospects and trade dreams we really get into fantasy land. 

McGyver, I don't think I'm kidding myself thinking he won't want to leave. Panarin left to go to NYR from....CBJ. CBJ is a far different environment than MN. MN is a mid market team with large market interest. It is far more laid back than an NYR, or other big city team. 

Kaprizov does like it here. Guerin is convinced of that. It doesn't take long to get out of the big city and into the suburbs where you're not really bothered. He doesn't like to do a lot of media either, which would be demanded of him in a large market. He does like his privacy. 

Just because Panarin and Kaprizov share the same agent, does not mean that they have the same goals. The agent, if he's working correctly, is supposed to represent the thoughts and feelings of each individual client, and get them the best deal they can. IMO, Kaprizov is more of a small town kid, and likes a more rural feel. 

Fiala was a different story. He liked the excitement of the city and his girlfriend was a model. For both of them, rural, cold MN was not the best place for her. LA or FL was. They were getting married and moving to one of those cities where she could thrive too. 

You are right that the prospects are just that, prospects/unproven. But, for Kaprizov to look around at the current team and think that is it, that's completely unfair also. He knows there are placeholders there. He knows that this is not the contending team being built. And, he is smart enough to look beyond that. When he makes his decision, it will be projected onto the future and what he believes is going to happen with this franchise, not on the past where those guys aren't really major parts of the team anymore. 

As for the contract. I think he wanted, and was thinking, that 1 more big contract could be had. His 27th birthday is Friday. He'll be 29 when this deal comes to an end. He could get 8 X whatever on his next deal after the cap penalties are finished here and after the escrow has been repaid by the players and the cap skyrockets. This strategy by the agent makes far more sense + he gets to look at the organization to see if it is what he likes. A large new 8 year contract is much easier to get at 29 than at 32.

What does he see now? Under Construction signs all over the place. He saw how injuries decimated this team this year. He sees cap restrictions lifting after next season. He sees some bright young players finally coming of age, even some fellow countrymen. And he sees it at every level, forward, defense, and goalie. 

I was the guy who mentioned Brady Tkachuk. He's the type of player we don't have, a large, hard nosed, scoring wing. He makes $8.2m and is only 24. According to his contract, if they're going to trade him, this would be the season, as he has an NMC for the following 3 years. 

How do you fit it in? Some of it would be money in money out for '24. It would probably have to include a player like Rossi who electrified fans while he was there in jrs. But, just for '24 because cap opens up in '25. Of course other assets, likely prospects and picks would need to go, but they'd also need some roster players making money, or, Ottawa could not do that and eat up to $4m. Why would Tkachuk want to come here? To play with Kaprizov, Ek, Boldy. He might want to get out of Canada, he has Midwestern roots, and he could be one of a few missing links here.

I think we take a little for granted with the position the Wild is in. Our mid market/large market is attractive to many players. A lot of these guys are not city guys and prefer it a little more rural. Cold doesn't really bother them. There's space for raising a family. For some, it's just too boring, for others, boring is underrated. Some players don't like a media circus all the time. And since many players in the league are from this state, and many others end up staying in the state after they retire, it's a sought after place for many.

Edited April 23 by mnfaninnc

[MacGyver]

Well you mentioned everything except one thing. Kaprizov came to the NHL to win a Stanley Cup. Period. Money is secondary, where he does it is secondary and who he does it with is secondary. Remember  Kaprizov had no choice in who he was going to play for. He had to come here. Be honest with yourself. Say he had a choice of ten teams with a handful of elite teams mixed in that he could have chosen to be on. Do you think he would be here right now? 

We are just going to have to wait to see how this plays out. But this is far more interesting and important than whatever line we think some prospect is going to play on. I'm not so sure Minnesota is a destination team for anyone except old Minnesota players to come back to to retire after all their best years were spent somewhere else. 

We couldn't even get Corey Perry to touch us with a ten foot pole! 🙂

[Dango]

Welp any other team could have drafted him 4-5 times  but they passed on him  so thats another thing for him to consider  .

[MacGyver]

19 minutes ago, Dango said:

Welp any other team could have drafted him 4-5 times  but they passed on him  so thats another thing for him to consider  .

This is true. But now that he is here in the league and showing what he can do there is not a team in the league who would not be interested in having him. Drafting Rooskies is always risky. Look how long the Wild had to wait to actually get him here. Then thinking he may not actually be able to come back after his off season visit back home. Wild are dancing the same dance with Yurov right now. 

Much easier to let someone else go through the draft pains and then try to lure him to your team once he is here and you've had a look at him. 

[Dango]

2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

This is true. But now that he is here in the league and showing what he can do there is not a team in the league who would not be interested in having him. Drafting Rooskies is always risky. Look how long the Wild had to wait to actually get him here. Then thinking he may not actually be able to come back after his off season visit back home. Wild are dancing the same dance with Yurov right now. 

Much easier to let someone else go through the draft pains and then try to lure him to your team once he is here and you've had a look at him. 

Yep and hes also not a north american star that has that 'im gonna make you pay for not drafting me  thing .  Probably more of an NFL  NBA thing anyways . 

[FredJohnson]

The goalie market will be hot. Plenty of teams will be hoping to elevate themselves to contention conversation next year with the addition of an established goalie this summer.
 

This sounds like the perfect time to trade Gus. Teams saw how Gus played last season and know he can do it again. Plus, he's only 25.
I don't see Wall being in Iowa at all because he's done everything he can with that roster down there.