Article: Minnesota's Future Is Still Intact

[Sean Flick]

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[Citizen Strife]

There are good things coming if we're patient, and who knows if that what the 12-16th pick (which is what we're liking getting) will lead to.  A forward like Iginla or Greentree, or maybe a defenseman like Buium or Jiricek.  There's options to be found if we wait it out.

Edited April 15 by Citizen Strife

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Quote

That would be $17 million to sign Faber and Rossi...

I agree with the spirit of the article, but have a few things nitpick. If Guerin cannot get both of them signed for quite a bit less per year than that total, I would be very surprised and question him more. Faber should not exceed $9M and Rossi should be less than $6M.

Also, the Parise/Suter dead cap hits reduce by $13M for 25-26, but they do stick around through 28-29 at $1.667M.

The salary cap is projected to increase for 24-25 to at least $87.5M, so already higher than the $85M used above for the salary cap space. The NHL is projecting the salary cap to rise to $87.7 million for next season, Commissioner Gary Bettman said after the Board of Governors meetings concluded[in December]. The 25-26 season could be up at $92M, which is what CapFriendly has in their projections.

The Wild could be in really good shape for 25-26, which has been Guerin's focus for years now.

[Up North Guy]

However, we could see a forward group of Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Boldly, Rossi, Khusnutdinov, Yurov, Firstov, Heidt, Mason Shaw, Ohgren, Sammy Walker, and Rasmus Kumpulainen. On defense, the Wild would likely have Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Brock Faber, Zach Bogosian, Dakota Mermis, and Carson Lambos, with Wallstedt and Gustavsson in net.

Some of these guys should not be on the big club. Sammy has not shown much so far. Rasmus still has a lot o0f developing to do. Mermus should be gone. Bogo? Who knows? Shawzy is a great glue guy but honestly needs to show more than he is right now. Spurgy? Really tough call there.

There will need to be some difficult decisions made in the next two years. Some of these guys will continue to develop. Some will disappoint. Others will unexpectedly improve.

[Patrick]

What a confusing article.  How do you not know that Ohgren is with the Wild and playing well?  The salary cap projections are off, and who in their right mind would have Sammy Walker, Dakota Mermis and Shaw (love him but he is Meh on the ice) on the roster in a few years? Despite all that the main point is a good one and something the BG haters (looking at you Tony) conveniently overlook.  This team is building towards contention from 2025-2030.

[Dean]

Limited no trade clauses are basically nmc s with a good agent.  The wild would have to pay to trade Fred or buy him out. You might be able to move the others but for less value. All because you didn’t need to hand out those clauses .  I would much rather have a few more 1sts this year than  those extended players. The same extended players that can’t win a playoff round or get you to them. 
    As far as that projected lineup being such a bright future, I don’t see it.  A bunch of names doesn’t beat heavy teams . Playoff teams . Rossi still isn’t close to being a 1st or 2nd center on a playoff team. Will he ever be? What is ohgren ? How high is k nat ceiling ?  Are these guys the type of players to win playoff rounds? All unknown . IMO these prospects aren’t going to win you a playoff round. I think we are seeing the next generation of average. Granny, zucker , coyle , nino , etc. good hockey players but not the guys to get you from middle of pack to top of pack.  
    The more I think of this competitive rebuild the dumber it sounds. We’re NOT competitive and we’re rebuilding with late picks. What’s smart about any of that?  So if 5 years when this so called window is open after 10 years of bill , Chicago is going to be eating our lunch . Conner bedard is a bright future ! Aging kappy on a mediocre team isn’t. 
     This is a slow motion car crash. In 5 years we will be rebuilding again because kappy is gone . 

    

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

Sammy Walker

Agree with Patrick here.  I think we need to think about Sammy playing in Europe before he plays for the Wild.  Seriously, I think he and Beckman will be on the same flight.

[Pewterschmidt]

10 minutes ago, Dean said:

Rossi still isn’t close to being a 1st or 2nd center on a playoff team. Will he ever be? What is ohgren ? How high is k nat ceiling ?  

Rossi will never be a 1C against a playoff caliber team.  Just too small.  Keep Rossi and watch his offense grow, but he'll never be a physical, productive 1C IMO.

Oehgren: small sample size but he has impressed me so far.  Good height and reach and he'll only get thicker (mnfan was here).  He is deceptively fast for a guy his size which should translate well to the pro game, when maybe it didn't translate so well in a Euro no check league's he's been playing.  I'm liking Ohgren so far.  Ceiling = productive middle 6'r

K-Nat: good speed, good motor, good grizzle.  bad size.  He'll be a solid bottom 6, pk'r.  His kick on Oehgren's goal is proof he's got more offensive instincts that (Nojo+Fred)^Foligno.  he's not going to lead us to a cup but he could be a consistent contributor.  I'd like to see him become the team Rat, when Hartman retires the crown.  Ceiling = productive bottom 6'r.  

[Protec]

I'd say this off-season is going to be a time of reflection and introspection for a bunch of Wild players. Are they gonna reach another level or not? Will they get back to form or not? Are they gonna sink into an even darker place of depression and laziness that deteriorates into the neck-beard choking out any remaining career that once existed?

Same for the GM. Is it gonna be another pretentious performance this Summer? Will we see more status quo or less than spectacular signings? Maybe get some inner-honesty cooking before handing out more deals or keeping dead weight.

The Ov-bros, (Kaprizov, Khusnitdinov, Firstov, and Yurov) have some potential to become a thing. The Wild have good young players that could become too many to keep them all. Looking at the draft and the Wild's needs, it could finally be the right time for a big trade that included some young assets.

I also don't see Kaprizov as a player who will get that much worse into his 30's. The opportunity Minnesota has in the next couple years is pretty good. They have many of the pieces coming or in place. There's assets and potential for trades.

Seems like a behind the scenes synopsis of who the Wild wanna have on opening night of 25-26 would be good to have before this Summer's draft and UFA opening. Some splashy moves would give the Wild a year to get rolling before adding the additional players when the penalties fall off. Who could be available to move based on that?

Imagine if Gus was moved with a prospect for a pick? That would give the Wild some futures and open it up a little bit now to sign the priority prospects or add a UFA. (If MAF came back for 1M.) Or if Spurgeon moved out with a prospect, same result and the Wild retool on the fly.

Fred and NoJo were the most disappointing this season but at 2M each, it could be a lot worse. The Wild can make some changes and improve a lot. Look at WPG or NSH. They both made significant changes and were unknowns coming into this year. Both made big jumps in the standings. Can the Wild get back to that level in the final year of the cap penalties? I think it's possible, but some serious questions have to be asked and some risks need to be taken to reap a good reward. I've been eyeball'n some nice looking UFAs who appear to be affordable and perhaps underappreciated.

Looking forward to seeing Yurov conclude his KHL season, hopefully with a big win. Seeing big guy Lorenz get an NCAA title with an important role is great. The Wild's Summer I hope, will be a big one on the way towards getting setup for being back in the mix sooner than later.

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

Some of these guys should not be on the big club. Sammy has not shown much so far. Rasmus still has a lot o0f developing to do. Mermus should be gone. Bogo? Who knows? Shawzy is a great glue guy but honestly needs to show more than he is right now. Spurgy? Really tough call there.

There will need to be some difficult decisions made in the next two years. Some of these guys will continue to develop. Some will disappoint. Others will unexpectedly improve.

I'm thinking that this offseason, Kumpulainen needs to be bunking in St. Paul with someone and visiting Andy Ness very often. Of course, he needs to be near the gym too. 

Bogosian is a 2 year stop gap. The kids will be ready by then, probably Spacek.

Mermis will be gone, Spurgeon is probably here and playing on 2 rosters: the real Wild roster and LTIR. Shawzy will be better next year, he still looks like his mind has not healed from the 4th ACL and, to me, he is taking very short shifts trying to work his way back. Perhaps it's just me, but he also looks to run someone along the boards rather than skate stop (a strategy I highly recommend at this point). I don't think he's quite as quick as he will be, and I believe his edges will get better when he trusts the knee more.

I wanted to go over Sean's designations:

Quote

 I saw that the Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Freddy Gaudreau contracts switched from a no-move clause (NMC) to a limited no-trade clause (LNTC) in 2025? 

So, here's what I found off of capfriendly:

Foligno, M-NTC starting in '26

Hartman, M-NTC starting in '25

Gaudrau, M-NTC starting now

Bogosian, M-NTC falls off at the beginning of next year

Spurgeon, M-NTC starting in '24

Brodin, no trade protection starting in '25

Zuccarello's the only player with the NMC through the end of his deal which is '25-26. 

Does everyone reach the same conclusion that I do? Players should start filtering in from the prospect list starting in '25. Beat out the incumbent and we'll trade that guy. But, it's got to be a clear win!

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, Dean said:

The wild would have to pay to trade Fred or buy him out. You might be able to move the others but for less value. All because you didn’t need to hand out those clauses .

What is the good agent going to tell you? Which 15 teams to pick? And even if he picks that team, you can still ask him to go there. It may be better than waivers and Iowa, which they could do. A good agent isn't going to keep him from getting traded. When Staal begged (not his agent) he resigned for well below market value to stay.

3 hours ago, Dean said:

Granny, zucker , coyle , nino , etc. good hockey players but not the guys to get you from middle of pack to top of pack.  

One of the big problems with those young guys was that they were plucked out of the A too soon, and you can add Haula to that list. Then, when it came down to the coach, Parise/Suter/Koivu insisted on the vets taking the important minutes and not let the kids see what they could do. It was a very fractured locker room, and something Fletcher couldn't see because he had no concept of team chemistry.

3 hours ago, Dean said:

The more I think of this competitive rebuild the dumber it sounds. We’re NOT competitive and we’re rebuilding with late picks. What’s smart about any of that?

It's not as bad as you think, and during that time we've had multiple 1sts. Yes, they've been later, and some of them had some warts on them (like size), but it is looking like we are hitting on all the 1sts. They will be solid contributors. 

The stars aligned for us in this process. The Covid year and a half did some pretty drastic things to prospects. Then came the Ukraine-Russia war that did the same thing to other prospects. Hopefully, whatever criteria Brackett used got us some undervalued draft picks up and down the rounds. This was unlike usual.

The Wall was arguably a top 5 pick, much like Carey Price in his draft year. Yurov was a top 10 pick, maybe top 5 in some scouts minds. Lambos was supposed to be a top 10 pick prior to his disastrous draft year play. Stramel was the same, but I'm not as confident in his development. 

Some teams will come out real winners here with these events, and some will come out real losers. Only time will tell. I'm pretty sure that the picks will need the full 5 years to develop, but some are arriving considerably early. Remember there is an adjustment period after their arrival and results tend to lag. 

Based upon timing, if there was a time to attempt a rebuild on the fly, this was definitely the time to do it. Certain things have to break in your favor for this to work, but they appear to be breaking that way for us. 

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

K-Nat: good speed, good motor, good grizzle.  bad size.  He'll be a solid bottom 6, pk'r.  His kick on Oehgren's goal is proof he's got more offensive instincts that (Nojo+Fred)^Foligno. 

I really like Dino's speed, and I really like the way he will get under larger players and go for the steal. He looks like he'll be pesky. On Ohgren's assist, he helped a lot just to get the puck to Ohgren. He's kind of sneaky with his moves. I also see him in the bottom 6, but more like a 3rd line C in the Haula mold. He's a little smaller, but he's a little faster I think too.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Protec said:

Looking forward to seeing Yurov conclude his KHL season, hopefully with a big win.

Metallurg gets a big game 7 win and moves into the finals!!! Yurov snipes a goal, I can't determine if it was the winner, but it wasn't as dramatic since they got their 3rd in the 2nd period. 

IMO, he's coming over this year and making the roster for the big club! I sure hope he comes in as large as Kaprizov was. If not, he needs to gain strength/weight this summer to make the team!

[IllicitFive]

For last few games I have loved seeing a few more younger guys. The "new core" of 27 and under guys are Kap, Boldy, Ek, Rossi, Marat, Ogie, and Faber. Wallstead is as well but who knows if he will be full time NHL next year or not.

Keeping line 1 of Kap Boldy and Ek is almost a lock.

Line 2 of Rossi Ogie and Zuccie could produce. I really like Ohgrens shot, I am not sure what it is but I like it. I agree with several above of Rossi is not a big 1 C but does get into the dirty areas and is shying away from contact less and less. 

Line 3 of Dino, Hartman, and Moose bring some solid defense with a bit of scoring punch. Hartman hit 20 goals again this year, Dino has speed and a feisty nature that could paid well with the other 2 here. Moose has been hurt most of the year. If he can chip in some on offense great but his role is to be the big body punisher we have seen in the past. The peskiness and edgy play of these 3 could be a pain for other teams if they are on it.

Line 4 Gaudreau (because well he is here for awhile) Shaw and ??????. I am holding hope that Gaudreau had a down year for some reason and will find a happy medium between last year and this year. He can be a defensively responsible player but, this year was BAD. 

NOJO has to go, the epitome of addition by subtraction.  I think Beckman just doesn't have it, has had a chance and has shown nothing so far. Lucchini and Lettieri back to the AHL as call ups for injury isn't a bad option.

Of course Yurov may come over and shake it all up. Same with Heidt, pushing moose or Hartman to line 4. The defense core, I have no idea. Faber, Spurge, Bogo, Mids, Brodin and a young guy who shows up? I feel the offensive players have been showing more than the young D-men.

The future is exciting, going to be bit of a slow play for another year or 2 or 3. More experience for the young guys/rookies. Older contracts starting to fall off or being able to be moved and for the love of god, no more neckbeard 90 flubbing shots, passes, and dropping the stick.

[Protec]

26 minutes ago, IllicitFive said:

For last few games I have loved seeing a few more younger guys. The "new core" of 27 and under guys are Kap, Boldy, Ek, Rossi, Marat, Ogie, and Faber. Wallstead is as well but who knows if he will be full time NHL next year or not.

Keeping line 1 of Kap Boldy and Ek is almost a lock.

Line 2 of Rossi Ogie and Zuccie could produce. I really like Ohgrens shot, I am not sure what it is but I like it. I agree with several above of Rossi is not a big 1 C but does get into the dirty areas and is shying away from contact less and less. 

Line 3 of Dino, Hartman, and Moose bring some solid defense with a bit of scoring punch. Hartman hit 20 goals again this year, Dino has speed and a feisty nature that could paid well with the other 2 here. Moose has been hurt most of the year. If he can chip in some on offense great but his role is to be the big body punisher we have seen in the past. The peskiness and edgy play of these 3 could be a pain for other teams if they are on it.

Line 4 Gaudreau (because well he is here for awhile) Shaw and ??????. I am holding hope that Gaudreau had a down year for some reason and will find a happy medium between last year and this year. He can be a defensively responsible player but, this year was BAD. 

NOJO has to go, the epitome of addition by subtraction.  I think Beckman just doesn't have it, has had a chance and has shown nothing so far. Lucchini and Lettieri back to the AHL as call ups for injury isn't a bad option.

Of course Yurov may come over and shake it all up. Same with Heidt, pushing moose or Hartman to line 4. The defense core, I have no idea. Faber, Spurge, Bogo, Mids, Brodin and a young guy who shows up? I feel the offensive players have been showing more than the young D-men.

The future is exciting, going to be bit of a slow play for another year or 2 or 3. More experience for the young guys/rookies. Older contracts starting to fall off or being able to be moved and for the love of god, no more neckbeard 90 flubbing shots, passes, and dropping the stick.

Beckman is a guy who's game may never translate to the NHL but in my opinion, he's had the worst opportunity of the AHL guys besides Walker perhaps. Another off-season and the glimpse he's had, I really hope he can find the scoring he had in juniors at the pro level. Leading the WHL as an 19 year old is pretty good. His average TOI for the dozen or so games this year was just around 10mins. 

The biggest thing that stands out good and bad is that there's opportunity for prospects to earn a roster spot but also why is NoJo getting ice time at all? That's bad. The hope for us, is that players on the bubble will come back determined and stronger to either play with the Wild or win in IA. 

[Protec]

Part of the bigger picture is still the number of young prospects and whether MN can plan to keep them all? 

It's easy to get attached to drafted players but separation of the wheat and chaff should be expected. If MN reaches conclusions making them comfortable with trading guys, they should. MN needs a scoring winger. Maybe even a big one, not too lazy to shave their neck. We wanted that to be Beckman, will he take a next step? It also wouldn't hurt to pick up a defenseman like Bogo in the sense, he was a productive, low-cost, upgrade. 

Do the Wild still have full faith in their defense prospects? 

I don't necessarily want to trade Spurgeon, Beckman, Knudi, Gus, or Rossi, but let's imagine what that could do to help the Wild in the current situation? There's some potential to better address needs directly than through draft gambles and development time results. I think the Yurov season end and decisions there will impact the Summer. Will he play another year in the KHL or not? I.e. will the Wild need a roster spot for him, and do they project Heidt to be in the mix? Same on defense, Hunt, Lambos, what's the plan gonna be to integrate them or not?

[punch_cut]

How can you not mention Chisholm at all but have Mermis signed for future teams?

Mermis is all but gone unless he will accept a two way deal and he probably already deserves a 1 way at this point.

Chisholm is going to be $800k and has played good this year. I would go as far as to say he is 100% a lock to be on this team.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

After another win, the Wild are highly likely to be picking in the 12-14 range.

Blues are locked in with a better record and the East should have at least 1 team finish ahead of the Wild and also miss out on the playoffs.

Capitals finish against the Flyers, so one of those teams is guaranteed 2 points. If Flyers win, they are assured of the tie-breaker against the Wild. Red Wings and Penguins both fighting for the playoffs, so may stay ahead of the Wild in points even if the Wild win their final game.

Wild will have roughly a 3%-5% lottery chance of moving into the top 5, but cannot end up at #1 unless they trade for it, which is also highly unlikely.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Protec said:

Beckman is a guy who's game may never translate to the NHL but in my opinion, he's had the worst opportunity of the AHL guys besides Walker perhaps. Another off-season and the glimpse he's had, I really hope he can find the scoring he had in juniors at the pro level. Leading the WHL as an 19 year old is pretty good. His average TOI for the dozen or so games this year was just around 10mins. 

It's pretty simple with Beckman, and something he has refused to do at this point. Why didn't he follow up with Rossi and simply get stronger and put on good muscle weight?

He's fine for contributing in the A, but is just too light for the N. At 6'2", he has to cross over the 200 lb. barrier, and should be putting himself at 210. I haven't liked that he's been scratched these past 2 games either, I've thought his play has gotten stronger the more experience he's gotten. Perhaps he is too concerned with not making a mistake instead of doing what he does best-get open, take the pass, and shoot?

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

Do the Wild still have full faith in their defense prospects? 

I think they do, and I would, all of them. Yes, it was an eye opener for them this season moving up a league. It's also a big offseason for them, they should be coming in stronger and heavier. Lambos doesn't even realize how much more strength he needs to move up another level. Hopefully someone will get through to them and convince them that "this is the way."

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Wild will have roughly a 3%-5% lottery chance of moving into the top 5, but cannot end up at #1 unless they trade for it, which is also highly unlikely.

I'd like a shot at that Canadian center or Saliyev. Both are 2 guys we don't have in our system.

[raithis]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

It's pretty simple with Beckman, and something he has refused to do at this point. Why didn't he follow up with Rossi and simply get stronger and put on good muscle weight?

He's fine for contributing in the A, but is just too light for the N. At 6'2", he has to cross over the 200 lb. barrier, and should be putting himself at 210. I haven't liked that he's been scratched these past 2 games either, I've thought his play has gotten stronger the more experience he's gotten. Perhaps he is too concerned with not making a mistake instead of doing what he does best-get open, take the pass, and shoot?

I keep saying this but I don't see it in Beckman.  The Wild have enough perimeter players that don't have the strength to play in the slot.  He just doesn't wow me much.  Maybe if he made that commitment like Rossi, but I just don't feel like he wants it enough.  His mindset (at least from my perspective) seems a little too close to Addison's.  Not quite as cocky, but in the "past successes mean I deserve this" sort of way.  He's a trade chip/AHL piece in my book.

If the Wild staff see it the same way, it could also be why he's not getting as much playing time. 

It also could be that he's partly just a casualty of where the Wild are.  Everyone is interviewing for spots next year.  The Wild are looking at the vets as well as the youngsters.  The Wild are also playing the prospects they brought over recently.  I don't think that's a coincidence.  It doesn't signal much to Yurov if Khusnutdinov or Ohgren are in Iowa and Sammy Walker and Beckman are up with the team.  It makes it seem like there is a line if they do that and Yurov may as well stay in the K and wait.  But if Khusnutdinov and Ohgren are getting playing time at someone else's expense, then that shows we will find room if we need to.

[raithis]

3 hours ago, Protec said:

Part of the bigger picture is still the number of young prospects and whether MN can plan to keep them all? 

It's easy to get attached to drafted players but separation of the wheat and chaff should be expected. If MN reaches conclusions making them comfortable with trading guys, they should. MN needs a scoring winger. Maybe even a big one, not too lazy to shave their neck. We wanted that to be Beckman, will he take a next step? It also wouldn't hurt to pick up a defenseman like Bogo in the sense, he was a productive, low-cost, upgrade. 

Do the Wild still have full faith in their defense prospects? 

I don't necessarily want to trade Spurgeon, Beckman, Knudi, Gus, or Rossi, but let's imagine what that could do to help the Wild in the current situation? There's some potential to better address needs directly than through draft gambles and development time results. I think the Yurov season end and decisions there will impact the Summer. Will he play another year in the KHL or not? I.e. will the Wild need a roster spot for him, and do they project Heidt to be in the mix? Same on defense, Hunt, Lambos, what's the plan gonna be to integrate them or not?

I fully expect the Wild to package a prospect or two in a trade this summer or next to fill a gap in the roster.  It wouldn't shock me if someone like Hartman gets traded next year at the trade deadline too.

It will be very interesting to see how the roster looks in 1.5yrs.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, raithis said:

I keep saying this but I don't see it in Beckman.  The Wild have enough perimeter players that don't have the strength to play in the slot.  He just doesn't wow me much.  Maybe if he made that commitment like Rossi, but I just don't feel like he wants it enough.  His mindset (at least from my perspective) seems a little too close to Addison's.  Not quite as cocky, but in the "past successes mean I deserve this" sort of way.  He's a trade chip/AHL piece in my book.

I haven't seen him as cocky nor entitled. But, he's got to do the gym work or it's not going to be for this team. He likely doesn't like gym work, but he's just going to have to do it if he wants to move up. The choice is pretty simple: Do you want to be in the N or do you want to be in the A?

What he has is a very quick shot that's got a lot of zip. The added strength will make him dangerous and able to get where he needs to go. Without it, he's no better than Walker. He should have been doing this 2 years ago.

[gagu]

19 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Metallurg gets a big game 7 win and moves into the finals!!! Yurov snipes a goal, I can't determine if it was the winner, but it wasn't as dramatic since they got their 3rd in the 2nd period. 

IMO, he's coming over this year and making the roster for the big club! I sure hope he comes in as large as Kaprizov was. If not, he needs to gain strength/weight this summer to make the team!

Yurov got the second goal. He was on the ice for the two opposing goals and ended up -1. He won five of 13 faceoffs with 19 shifts and 15 minutes of ice time, all at even strength.

I just watched today's game. They lost 4-0. Yurov was on the ice for the second goal but wasn't at fault. He also picked up a tripping penalty that resulted in a PP goal against. That's the bad news.

The good news is that on the whole, he looked good. Despite his smaller stature, he held his own in front of the net, worked the corners, and moved the puck well with some slick moves and passes. So far, he is +6 in the playoffs after being +22 in the regular season and team-best in goals and points at age 20. 

Here is a recap of today's game. Yurov is #22: