Article: Has the Gus Bus Crashed?

[Luke Sims]

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[Citizen Strife]

You definitely hope Gus can figure things out.  I don't see him as a lost cause, but that's the question: how long do you wait on Wallstedt?  Fleury has only been marginally better than Gus. 

I wonder if Guerin tries to get a prospect or finagle some draft spots out of Gus.  If not, Fleury/Gus isn't the worst mulligan.  

 

[mnfaninnc]

I didn't get a chance to see the Colorado game, especially since nobody reported seeing a line brawl! But, recently they put together a 3rd pairing of Goligoski and Merrill. Getting rid of that 3rd pairing altogether should help the goalies. 

I agree with most people that the goalie issue is really a defensive issue. And, for a large part of the season, missing Brodin and Spurgeon was difficult. Let's face it, having to play Goligoski, Merrill, Mermis, Hunt were not very good options for our defense. 

I've been happy with the trade for Bogosian, and he seems to have a little more offense than we figured. But, if Spurgeon can return healthy (which I don't expect) and Bogosian gets kicked down with Chisholm, I think we've got a decent defense. I'd like to see Hunt take over for Merrill, but the key here is that Hunt needs to play, so if he's in the Prossbox, that does him no good. 

I also think that a Chisholm-Hunt pairing could work. It might be a little rough at first, but I think they will get better as the season progresses. 

 

On a different note, Saginaw won its opening game 4-0, Haight had the game winner. He's listed as a center but only went 1/4 in the faceoff circle. I'm convinced he's playing wing right now.

[Protec]

The defensive issues were good to analyze and perhaps excuse poor goaltending but that's not really the case it looks like.

I was not impressed when I heard the Gus interview post contract extension. He sounded lazy and apathetic then and the season went the same way. 

It seems like a classic case of get the contract and regress. Some might call it a bait & switch. Like me, that's what I call it and it's what NoJo did too. I want more players like Brunette, Richard Park, Walz, or guys who have guts and always go hard. Shaw is a current example. The skilled Euros have always bugged me because they decide when they're gonna show up or not. In a team game, eff that! Weakest link is a real thing and I'd rather move on without those kinds of players. At this point who gives a shit if Gus had a great year last year or Game 1 against Dallas. It's over and now totally meaningless.

[Beast]

Many saw the regression coming and called for Billy to trade him last offseason while he had max value, as this team was clearly not contending for anything other than another prompt playoff loss if they managed to get in.

Could’ve gotten a some draft capital in return, filled in with some random back up free agent (which could have lead to better draft positioning if it went poorly, but couldn’t have gone a whole lot worse) and ready for a tandem of Flower and the Wall next year.  Maybe even gotten some more games for Wallstad in the NHL this year to further his development.

That feels like a missed opportunity.  Hindsight is 20/20,  but Bill is paid to recognize these things.  Especially if it’s something a number or casual fans are able to recognize.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

49 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Fleury has only been marginally better than Gus. 

To be fair...

It seemed like the Wild gave difficult matchups to Gustavsson more frequently than Fleury. Parsing through the data, Gus did face slightly higher quality offenses for his shots against.

On average, Gustavsson was facing shots from offenses ranked more than 2 spots higher in Goals/game in the league, out of 31 other teams.

Fleury faced shots from a top 14 offense(GF/G) on 33.5% of his shots.

Gus faced shots from a top 14 offense(GF/G) on 56.95% of his shots.

Both faced about the same % of shots from offenses ranked lower than the Wild, who averaged 3 goals per game, but Fleury had a substantially higher portion of his shots against coming from middle of the road offenses rather than higher level, playoff caliber, offenses.

The Devils are the only offense ranked in the top 14 for goals for per game that is certain to miss the playoffs, although Detroit could also miss.

Based upon goals per game and save percentage, Fleury is currently slightly ahead, but is that due to facing a much lower percentage of shots from top offenses?

If we shrink down to the top 8 offenses(teams exceeding 3.33 goals per game), Fleury faced those teams for exactly 20% of his shots while Gus faced them for 33.12% of his shots against.

Gus faced the #1 offense, Colorado, all 4 games the Wild played them. Just adding a little context to the idea that Fleury was better this season. They were pretty even, with Fleury generally considered more consistent. Fleury's save percentage facing a top 8 offense was .855 while Gustavson's save percentage against the top 8 offenses was .880.

[Burnt Toast]

I can appreciate the arguments to keep either MAF or Gus next year. Personally I’d keep Gus and hope he rebounds. No pun intended. I’m 100% not in favor of keeping both. This team needs every single dollar of cap space to be ready for the next trade deadline. Vegas just picked up Hanifin. 6’3” 215 lb. 27 year old,  half point per game D. Save the cash for someone like that dude. Disclaimer Vegas got two other teams to retain salary for this year. He’s a bargain at 6 years 6.5 AAV moving forward. 

[Dis-allowed display name]

2 hours ago, Protec said:

 

It seems like a classic case of get the contract and regress.

At this point who gives a shit if Gus had a great year last year or Game 1 against Dallas. It's over and now totally meaningless.

That might be fair but now he is looking at this:

If he wants another contract in this league he needs to pick up his play, he has one year to do it before he sits behind Jesper and gets considered to be a backup, so next year better be solid. 

I am ok with Fluery coming back another year, but only at half of that $4 million he made this year.  We need money to be spent elsewhere and $8 million per season on below average goaltending is just silly.  I would bet Fluery gets signed, moved to a contender when we end up out of contention in his final NHL season of 24/25, and Jesper gets lots of play late next season.

Edited April 12 by Dis-allowed display name

[mnfaninnc]

4 hours ago, Protec said:

At this point who gives a shit if Gus had a great year last year or Game 1 against Dallas. It's over and now totally meaningless.

I get the sentiment, but I still believe Goose can be a reliable goalie. He was the #1 Euro goalie in his draft class. He didn't get there without a reason. Goalies are weird. But, I think if you bring over the Lulea goalie coach that trained both Goose and The Wall, you might be able to fix him. 

IIRC, when the Wild went to Sweden this year, Goose talked with his old goalie coach and it helped him. I would hire Lulea guy as an assistant goalie coach, and, let him spend some time with the Baby Wild too. 

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

I am ok with Fluery coming back another year, but only at half of that $4 million he made this year.  We need money to be spent elsewhere and $8 million per season on below average goaltending is just silly.

I would suggest that if we resign Fleury, it should be in the $1m area. Why, that's under valued?! Precisely. The reason you would do it is because of legacy. Fleury wants his family to have stability and he knows the Wild's handicap capwise. He's made his money, this is just for love of the game. He's chasing a playoff wins legacy stat. Wouldn't he be better off if that extra $1m was used to get a defender who could help him?

[Protec]

4 hours ago, Beast said:

Especially if it’s something a number or casual fans are able to recognize.

I prefer the term know-it-all. 😁

[Protec]

52 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I get the sentiment, but I still believe Goose can be a reliable goalie. He was the #1 Euro goalie in his draft class. He didn't get there without a reason. Goalies are weird. But, I think if you bring over the Lulea goalie coach that trained both Goose and The Wall, you might be able to fix him. 

IIRC, when the Wild went to Sweden this year, Goose talked with his old goalie coach and it helped him. I would hire Lulea guy as an assistant goalie coach, and, let him spend some time with the Baby Wild too. 

It's possible that could be a thing. Gus had a solid pedigree from the draft when he was selected but an 18yo with talent has to become a pro who develops physically and mentally. I personally don't think his technical game has fallen off. He certainly hasn't become smaller in the net or changed his style. 

To me, it seems like Gus has just had a down year. Is it just coincidence that it's after a new contract and baby during the off-season? Can he figure out a new routine and return with a new focus? Maybe, but it's certainly poor optics for he and Guerin cause their deal was supposed to pay off. 

It's now looking like the MAF/Wallstedt duo should have kicked off sooner and Gus should have been traded while hot. Hopefully it turns around cause now the perceived value is gone and the Wild have a goalie logjam. Guerin has rewarded guys like you would see in a corporate environment for guys who have earned it and I can respect that but it's no good if the player doesn't maintain their level of productivity.

I think Guerin came in strong, but he's slippin. It's about eff'n winning Bill. Find the guts to be a hard-ass where it's needed. Not in the media or front office. Be the guy who improves the team no matter what. 

I understand moving Gus last off season woulda been risky because it means you're reliant on MAF and a rookie NHL tendy. The conservative plan that appeared safe and gave Gus his due didn't work too well. Therefore,  the lesson might be that sometimes you have to make an unpopular/hard call to move on.

This has been Guerin's worst year in MN. His taking the smooth-wide road jammed up instead of the difficult winding path that could also have jammed up. In hindsight it woulda been better. Those of us who called it last off season when discussing the potential to recapture Foligno's 3M, the Gus money plus assets for a trade, or the release of elite Swedish neck-beards would have been so much better.

Now that we're talkin Spurgeon trade, or NoJo buyout, it's like deja-vu cause that money and roster spots would allow MN to add scoring and young defenders to build the new core sooner. You're going that way anyhow, do it now. Gus of course is basically a zero asset with this season's numbers so Guerin saved the trouble of media and fan backlash last Summer but is gonna have to deal with the consequences now...

[mnfaninnc]

15 hours ago, Protec said:

This has been Guerin's worst year in MN. His taking the smooth-wide road jammed up instead of the difficult winding path that could also have jammed up. In hindsight it woulda been better.

This is a good analogy of where we are headed. If you are going to try and rebuild/retool/reload on the fly, you have to take the difficult, winding path. We still had 2 years of winding path to be taken. You can't just jump on the freeway thinking it's easy now, that's not how this route looks!

It could be that Goose is an every other year goalie. Some players just perform that way. What I thought was wrong was giving him minimal starter's money when he hadn't performed as a starter. Goose was a rookie last year. He hadn't earned that contract. He had earned a 1-way deal and a raise. He had earned a chance to climb the ladder past Fleury. 

If Goose has the performance he had this season on a $2m contract, are we really complaining? No. He had no track record in the N. He hadn't done what he did at least twice. Now, Shooter's got to sit down and have a heart to heart with him and clearly spell out how he is to show up in camp next season. 

I wouldn't trade him. I think he'll rebound. But, this may be a player that needs to be pushed. I would think the Lulea coach would know his and The Wall's buttons to push. 

In a league where the best goalies and biggest stars are getting $10m+/yr., $3.75m doesn't look like that much. However, for a 25 year old, even if he's married with a kid, that is a lot of money. It's about a 400% raise. Human nature says he may relax a little bit with that sort of boost. I think this is where we failed him, we should have cut that in half and kept him hungry. 

I did warn of this before we signed him, and suggested a 2-year bridge deal where his raise was closer to 100%. Protec points out the laziness in both Goose and Johansson. Both are Swedes and their culture is different than ours. They may, therefore, react differently to larger contracts. 

Without getting political, our society is more or less a capitalist society, and Sweden's is more of a socialist society. I'm not arguing which one is better here, I'm simply stating that they are different, their mindsets are different, their values are different, and the way they see things are different. Even the way the game is taught and played is different. That would also mean that the player's motivations are likely different. While all people are unique, some players need more of a kick in the butt to get going, while simply winning and losing are the greatest motivators for others. I think with Goose and Johansson, they may need more of the kick in the butt.

[Will D. Ness]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Without getting political, our society is more or less a capitalist society, and Sweden's is more of a socialist society. I'm not arguing which one is better here, I'm simply stating that they are different, their mindsets are different, their values are different, and the way they see things are different. Even the way the game is taught and played is different. That would also mean that the player's motivations are likely different. While all people are unique, some players need more of a kick in the butt to get going, while simply winning and losing are the greatest motivators for others. I think with Goose and Johansson, they may need more of the kick in the butt.

Ek is like WTF MNCfan.  Talk about a blue collar guy.

I'm pretty sure if you look at the data, Americans are the fattest in the world.  I wouldn't put us on a pedestal of motivation.  😀

[Imyourhuckleberry]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

It could be that Goose is an every other year goalie. Some players just perform that way. What I thought was wrong was giving him minimal starter's money when he hadn't performed as a starter. Goose was a rookie last year. He hadn't earned that contract. He had earned a 1-way deal and a raise. He had earned a chance to climb the ladder past Fleury. 

If you look back at Fleury's career, he was typically above average every other year, but around average every other year, and he'll be in the Hall of Fame. For example, Fleury had a .905 save percentage in 09-10, but the league average that season was .909.

Gus will probably come back better next season. He doesn't have a long history of success, but a down year happens to most goalies. League average save% this season is currently .898, so Gus is right around average. Fleury is now below average on the year, after last night.

[mnfaninnc]

On 4/13/2024 at 1:25 PM, Will D. Ness said:

Ek is like WTF MNCfan.  Talk about a blue collar guy.

And Ek would be one of those guys where winning and losing is the greatest motivation for him. But, I'd also add, that he signed a long extension for a team friendly price. His motivation definitely wasn't about the money. Ek has different priorities than our current culture has.

[Dango]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

And Ek would be one of those guys where winning and losing is the greatest motivation for him. But, I'd also add, that he signed a long extension for a team friendly price. His motivation definitely wasn't about the money. Ek has different priorities than our current culture has.

But also if Ekk was North American hed probably have many fights or retaliatory penalties from all the cheap shots he takes high in the head area  .   So theres that difference as well .

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Gustavsson had a rough start to the season after his phenomenal performance in game 1. Since his first 8 appearances, starting with the game in Sweden, he posted a .906 save percentage.

In the last 12 games, Gustavsson posted a .915 save percentage. If Gustavsson continues to work hard, he should be at least an average starter, particularly if Spurgeon can return to form and solidify the defensive pairings.

[Up North Guy]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Gustavsson had a rough start to the season after his phenomenal performance in game 1. Since his first 8 appearances, starting with the game in Sweden, he posted a .906 save percentage.

In the last 12 games, Gustavsson posted a .915 save percentage. If Gustavsson continues to work hard, he should be at least an average starter, particularly if Spurgeon can return to form and solidify the defensive pairings.

I am really wondering if Spurgy can be counted on to make a full recovery. Age, size, wear and tear are not on his side.

[Protec]

This year sorta showed MN couldnlive without Spurgeon but if he's healthy and back to his old self, that's gonna be great. 

Gus looks like could be replaced by the Wall.

[Up North Guy]

12 minutes ago, Protec said:

This year sorta showed MN couldnlive without Spurgeon but if he's healthy and back to his old self, that's gonna be great. 

Gus looks like could be replaced by the Wall.

Maybe in pecking order but not in total. I think it is time for Flower to retire. Hopefully he and BG agree on that. Gus has had a bad year but has played much better the last 8-10 games. It is short sighted to cut bait with him. I still believe he can be a solid #1-2  tendy.