Article: The Wild Are Running It Back Next Year Expecting Different Results

[mnfaninnc]

9 hours ago, WheelSnipeCelly said:

I know that the MN's injuries decimated Iowa's roster too, but I would imagine they have to look at the coaching and try something different next season. Hopefully they're able to find someone to right that ship, and especially focus on the D prospects.

I wonder about AHL coaching contracts. If McLean has a multi year deal down there, I'm doubting that the team will want to eat that. However, I've got to believe that some better quality assistants can be found. I can't imagine that new guys are on better than a year deal?

Needed is a defense coach who has the respect of the players, usually with a long NHL career. Needed is a strength and conditioning coach who can physically pick up players and carry them to the gym (might be the only way). Needed is a nutritional guy who can give these players a high protein diet that will translate to increased muscle. 

We might need a new head coach there. Could McLean be a useful scout in another role? That would take the pressure off of having to eat his contract.

[mnfaninnc]

58 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

Is there really a risk of damaging a prospect by playing him for 6-9 games with real minutes? GMBG and Hynes have new long-term contracts - are they afraid of being fired?? Beckman getting 5 minutes on the 4th line for 2 games then sitting in the press box for 2-3 games is NOT what I'm looking for.

The only way I can rationalize the moves made this year is that Leipold is pressing so hard to make the playoffs that desperate moves/decisions are being made.

I think you may be right on the OCL thing, but even he had to be waving the white flag earlier. I thought Beckman's game was getting better with each game played. He was up on the 3rd line last I saw. But, Heinzy does have a tendency to shorten his bench. 

I'd like to see real tryouts too. You might as well play the kids and see what they can do, especially now that we're eliminated. 

Also, I don't know if you guys caught this, but it appears that Pittsburgh has scratched and clawed it's way into playoff seeding now. It's still a close call, but the East is very interesting, and my prediction of Sully being available may not actually happen this year. I still believe that this is who Guerin wants as his championship coach. 

It's looking more and more likely we've got Heinzy again next season.

[FredJohnson]

12 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Heinzy does have a tendency to shorten his bench.

It's looking more and more likely we've got Heinzy again next season.

I've been clenching my teeth every time Dolla gets double-shifted hoping he doesn't get hurt.

Heinzy is cemented as the HC for a couple years (unless the team takes an absolute dump). He's got a 3 year contract after this one, no?

[mnfaninnc]

13 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

Heinzy is cemented as the HC for a couple years (unless the team takes an absolute dump). He's got a 3 year contract after this one, no?

My thought was that if Sully became available, Heinzy would be "promoted" to the front office. I do believe he and Guerin are good friends and he's a good hockey mind to have in there. O'Hearn filled 2 roles, capologist and bounce ideas off guy. The cap guy doesn't have to be the close confident. That could be Heinzy, and get a separate set of eyes on things. 

The thing about the coaches is that sometimes you have to pluck them up when they become available. It doesn't always work that when you need one they're available. Could it be that Sullivan starts out in the FO? Maybe, he can take a look at the whole organization and see what's coming. 

I do think all 3 of them can work together well, though. Sully's had a little more success in the league coaching. So, I'd see this as similar to how Brackett fell into Guerin's lap and just in time for the draft. 

 

[FredJohnson]

6 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Heinzy would be "promoted" to the front office. I do believe he and Guerin are good friends and he's a good hockey mind to have in there. O'Hearn filled 2 roles, capologist and bounce ideas off guy. The cap guy doesn't have to be the close confident. That could be Heinzy, and get a separate set of eyes on things.

Oh good point. That'd fill the still open spot for a capologist (makes sense why the position is still open).

[mnfaninnc]

4 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

Oh good point. That'd fill the still open spot for a capologist (makes sense why the position is still open).

We'll see if Heinzy enrolls in summer accounting classes!🤪

[Mateo3xm]

On 4/11/2024 at 7:16 AM, Protec said:

Personally, I haven't had much problem with MAF this season.

How do you not see an issue with a 40 year old goaltender who’s got a saves percentage of .905 and a goals against average of 2.82 over the last 3 years they’ve played with Mn?

Somehow Rossi, the rookie who scored 20 plus goals this year is part of the issue and needs to be moved?..I agree this team needs to get bigger but Rossi its absolutely the last of the small players I’d get rid of (goes without saying about Kap).

[Mateo3xm]

On 4/11/2024 at 11:51 AM, Citizen Strife said:

Spent a little time doing some rough math.  Here's what both the 10 GF and GA for the highest scoring/defensive and the top 10 overall teams did, and what the Wild are in comparison.

Goals For Per Game (Top 10 Overall)

1. NYR: 274
2. DAL: 293
3. CAR: 267
4. BOS: 260
5. VAN: 270
6. COL: 296
7. FLA: 256
8. WIN: 241
9. EDM: 279
10. TOR: 288

Total of Top 10 Winning Teams: 2,724
AVG of Top 10 Winning Teams: 272
Divided by 77-78 Games: 3.49-3.55 GF P/G

Goals For Per Game (Top 10 Highest Scoring)

1. COL: 296
2. DAL: 293
3. TOR: 288
4. EDM: 279
5. TBL: 279
6. NYR: 274
7. VAN: 270
8. CAR: 267
9. BOS: 260
10. DET: 258

Total of Top 10 Scoring Teams: 2,764
AVG of Top 10 Scoring Teams: 276
Divived by 77-78 Games: 3.54-3.58 GF P/G

20 in both Categories. MIN: 237 (35-40 goals behind Top 10)
3.04-3.05 GF P/G

Goals Against Per Game (Top 10 Overall)

1. NYR: 223
2. DAL: 229
3. CAR: 206
4. BOS: 215
5. VAN: 217
6. COL: 242
7. FLA: 196
8. WIN: 194
9. EDM: 219
10. TOR: 241

Total of Top 10 Winning Teams: 2,182
AVG of Top 10 Winning Teams: 218
Divided By 77-78 Games: 2.79-2.83 GA P/G

Goals Against Per Game (Top 10 Defensive Teams)

1. WIN: 194
2. FLA: 196
3. CAR: 206
4. LAK: 206
5. BOS: 215
6. VAN: 217
7. EDM: 219
8. SEA: 219
9. NYR: 223
10. DAL: 229

Total of Top 10 Defensive Teams: 2,124
AVG of Top 10 Defensive Teams: 212
Divided By 77-78 Games: 2.72-2.75 GA P/G

20 Overall/18th Best Defensively: MIN: 249 (30-35 Goals More Than Top 10 Teams)
Divided By 77-78 Games: 3.17-3.19 GA P/G

 

Again, this is pretty basic, so bear in mind I don't know how official this is.  What I'm seeing from the majority of the middle of each list is 265-275 Goals For and 215-220 Goals Against is what separates Minnesota from this year's playoff teams.  Note, I did not check bubble teams.  I was purely looking at what it would take to separate Minnesota from teams with 100 pts and easily in playoff position.

What this is telling me if every player stays where they were, you're only looking at another 2 15-20-goal scorers or one 30-40 goal scorer to really change the dynamic of the team.  That or let in the equivalent of 30-35 goals less overall, and then you hit top 10, and wouldn't need as much an offensive change to really compete for playoff position.

I definitely think the defense improvement is harder to gauge, but nothing from this tells me Minnesota is so bent down so far it can't be overcome with a few stingy players or 1-2 that explode offensively or even slightly improve to counterract any aging or injury concerns.  

I don’t think you’re taking into consideration a few things.

Mn is the 4th oldest nhl team going into this season. We don’t have enough young and upcoming players to offset the regression of our core players. Our team average age is 29.95. Statistically after age 29 there is a pretty consistent regression in production.

One of the biggest issues is the gap of old core players and up and coming young players. This team will either have geriatric players or players not yet in their statistical prime which starts at 24-26. 

[Mateo3xm]

6 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

That is part some forget.  "Tank is a word we've never said here."

Then use rebuild if it triggers you so much. Almost every Stanley cup team has done it for a period of time to win the Cup. You’re going to be here 10 years from now beating the same dead horse and trying to justify not rebuilding. Nobody wins by consistently picking between 12-25 in the first round.

its not the only key to win a cup but it’s a major part of the equation.

[Citizen Strife]

If I'm still here 10 years from now, then somebody shoot me.

Kidding...

[raithis]

22 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

Then use rebuild if it triggers you so much. Almost every Stanley cup team has done it for a period of time to win the Cup. You’re going to be here 10 years from now beating the same dead horse and trying to justify not rebuilding. Nobody wins by consistently picking between 12-25 in the first round.

its not the only key to win a cup but it’s a major part of the equation.

I don't know.  You seem like your the one beating a dead horse.

Detroit had a pretty long run and almost all of their picks weren't people they drafted top-10.  Seems like good scouting, development, coaching, and team play do pretty well in lieu of top-10 picks.  That seems to be far more important than top-10 picks.

I'm not saying that the Wild can overcome that, but your assertion that nobody can win picking into middle just isn't true.  Drafting talent can help, but that's a lot of luck dependent on the draft lottery (luck the Wild have historically never had). 

There are a lot of teams that barely ever make the playoffs that are consistently drafting those top-10 picks every year.  A good player on a bad team is still a bad team.  If it's such a major part of the equation, so many top-10 picks would have lifted those franchises out of the cellar long ago and at least got them into the playoffs with some sort of regularity.

[Protec]

I think the point with MAF is that goalies have shown they can be successful at a ripe age like Mike Smith or Tim Thomas. Craig Anderson wasn't bad and MAF hasn't been letting in soft Dubnyk-type goals. 

From what I've seen in the eye test is he faces grade A chances that he stops fewer than in his prime. Okay, that's significant if you need a tendy that can steal a game. Problem is MN isn't in a position to be competitive enough to have a goalie steal games for the Wild. I'm still noticing Fleury stopping breakaways or losing in OT. Perhaps the Wild score just twice and Fleury takes an L. 

My point is NOT that MAF is still a Vezina guy but he's not the sole reason the Wild missed the playoffs or that he's 100% cooked, put a fork in him.