Article: The Wild Are Running It Back Next Year Expecting Different Results

[Tony Abbott]

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[Sviginak]

LFGW! No reason for me to expect the Wild will not be in the PO next year. Goaltending will be better, D will be better, injuries will be less, one or two or three prospects will break into the league and show us something. Poor showing by some vets will get better. That should do it.

[Outskated]

They should not re-sign Fleury. Why would anyone want to run this same terrible goalie tandem back? BG should also admit failure, buyout Johansson and just eat it. Hopefully Evason gets a job and they can trade Gaudreau. The young kids need to play and grow, but we also have to balance the upcoming re-signing period of Kaprizov. 

[Burnt Toast]

It’s not unreasonable to expect Rossi, Boldy, Faber, Chisholm and other young players to improve. For me the biggest wildcard is goal tending. I’m including The Wall in that mix. So why not playoffs 24-25. One difference between this year and next is if they buy at the deadline they can extend that player. I know the season has been cut short but I’ve never been more excited about the future than right now. 

[MacGyver]

What does a "healthy" Spurgeon look like after two surgeries and turning 36 next year? Will he be the same defensive stalwart we have always seen? Can he remain healthy or is this the beginning of a performance decline and injury prone Spurgeon? 

We will find out because he is certainly not going anywhere. I would think the Wild are going to have to focus on getting KK to sign on the dotted line next year as he is a UFA the following and I doubt they want him to enter his UFA year with no contract. This is the lynch pin of this teams future. Not Yurov, Ohgren, Firstov or anyone else you can name who is not here yet and has never played a minute in the NHL. 

I don't think Kaprizov staying here is a foregone conclusion by any means. He is going to be 28 heading into his UFA year. The Wild will want to give him the max eight year contract to lock him up for basically the rest of his career. Kaprizov came over here to do one thing. Win the Stanley Cup. Period. This is the crowning jewel on the resume of a player who has accomplished everything else. I believe it is far more important to him than any amount of money.  He did not choose the Wild he had no choice it was here or stay in Russia. As he looks around him does he view this team as one being on the verge of winning a Cup? Does he have as much faith as everyone else seems to have of all these prospects all of a sudden becoming top six players and we will have the reincarnation of the Russian five? Will he gamble his chance of winning a Stanley Cup on it?  

His agent Paul Theofanous is a hard driver and represents a lot of Russian players. If it goes like the last time with Kaprizov really saying nothing and letting his agent do all the work and negotiating it could be tough on Billy to retain his composure. Billy really holds none of the cards here he can only throw so much money at KK after that he really has no leverage. His best hope is KK states clearly and unequivocally to his agent he wants to stay here going to another team is not an option.  You can bet your mortgage on that happening if you want to but I'm holding my bet.   Seems everyone is focused on the short game of prospects getting here. Kaprizov is the long game that is going to be interesting to watch. 

[Protec]

I don't expect things to be static over the off-season. 

Guerin might ssy mean things, yell at somebody, disparage guys in the media, or drop eff-bombs but I doubt he sticks with the same roster. He's already moved depth guys and created opportunity for prospects. 

The biggest questions are whether he'll stick with guys like Fleury or find a way to send off older players like NoJo.

One thing I think is interesting is how nobody wants to consider moving Rossi or Spurgeon, the smallest guys but keeping Fleury the HOF goalie is a problem? What's the bigger issue to compete in the Central. Faster, more mobile defense and being healthy with young talent? Or simply a better goalie duo? Personally, I haven't had much problem with MAF this season. Gus and the injuries have been the more disappointing thing besides NoJo.

I think if Guerin has been watching the team like we have and doesn't have horse-blinders on, he needs to upgrade. Gus has not been hot like last year but how much of that can be attributed to team defense? 

With the vets he signed and new cap space, there's both room to swap or add a player but also some commitments that aren't easy to reconcile. I wonder how quickly the Wild could expect rookies to deliver at the NHL level? I.e. Can Guerin expect RasmuKampu, Ohgren, Heidt, or Yurov to be immediate impact guys. Does it fit the hierarchy to promote those guys quickly? We've watched Beckman and others held up a L4 level with paying dues SOP behind vets. Will Guerin more quickly elevate "his guys". If so, that's kinda a departure from the norm with Fenton's picks?

My guess is that we see some serious action in the Summer.

[MacGyver]

Fluery and Billy are tight. One of Billy's boys right? If Fluery wants to stay he will stay. Billy will not ship him off or force him to retire. I really have no problem with that. Gus could bounce back or not but as Protec mentioned how much of the problem was lack of defense. A lot of Fluery's goals he let in were deemed "nothing he could do to stop that one" type of goals. I don't see Billy being able to do much to change the complexion of this team next year. I think he's just going to have to hope he gets better breaks on the injury front and a little puck luck where there was none this year and better performance from the players who were not injured this year. Again these contract extensions just really killed any way of changing the look of this team in any meaningful way. For Billy to back away and start sitting these guys to plug and play new guys just is not going to happen. This is one bed Billy made and he is going to sleep in it.

Another year like this one might be too much to ask Kaprizov to suffer. He has done everything he can to shoulder the burden of carrying this team. If you look at it from the standpoint this coming season is the one that has to show Kaprizov there is something here worth sticking around for it could be a tough road. Would Kaprizov consider a two or even three year deal just to get a look at how things go and leave himself an escape route if it doesn't pan out?  If that's all the Wild can get I imagine they would take it but I don't really see that as a reality. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Was there an update on the Wild signing a couple of free agent goalies for their AHL squad, Kyle McClellan(U of WI), and Samuel Hlavaj out of the Czech Elite League?

Looks like they might be preparing for Wallstedt to be in the NHL.

[Citizen Strife]

I don't think we need to worry about Kaprizov just yet.  The Wild have the inclination to sign him for more than anyone, the system is his, the fanbase is his, the city is his, and I guarantee the Wild will outbid anyone because that's how much it matters.  

Faber is going to get 8x8-10m, Rossi (should) get a 2-3 year bridge of $3-4m, and we'll get glimpses of Wallstedt, Ohgren, and a full year of Khusnutdinov.  If Yurov is as advertised, you're adding that top line talent to cover the forward lines that get rid of the Lucchinis, Letteri's, etc, with fresher legs.  I understand the fear, but nothing Guerin is doing is without Kaprizov's approval.  Not saying Kap runs the team, but he's probably more than integral in everything Guerin is doing.  

- They have their top line figured out (Kap/Ek/Boldy)

- They have a solid and maybe (someday) even high end 2nd C (Rossi)

- They have a Top 15-20 defenseman (Faber)

- 45-60 point guys (Hartman/Zuccarello)

You have to remember it took an ENDLESS amount of injuries for the Wild to be denied a shot at the playoffs.  Yes, beating top end teams was a struggle too, but I don't think the team is as up shit creek as we think.  The impatience is a bit tiring, but I don't think Kap is as worried about leaving as some of us think he is.  Figure out the depth defense, and give Wallstedt time to grow, and who knows.

Even if he is, think of the haul he is worth.  The only worst case scenario is letting him leave for nothing.  But "riding out another year" isn't as much insanity as these articles and a few people would make it out to be.

Edited April 11 by Citizen Strife

[MacGyver]

Sure maybe Billy can throw more money at him than the next team but as I mentioned earlier I don't think money is Kaprizov's motivation. He was already wealthy (by Russian standards) when he left there. He probably now already has more money than he will ever spend. I doubt Kaprizov gets consulted much in regards to the internal workings of the team. I doubt he would want that responsibility to begin with.  Sure Guerin takes him into account when considering things but to go and actually consult with him I doubt that. Wouldn't that give Kaprizov the idea that management has no confidence in themselves if they need to consult him? He's a player and I would guess that's all he wants to be at this point. 

Watching teams like Dallas and Colorado the skill level and performance of those teams are far ahead of where the Wild are. Injuries or not the Wild are just not up to really competing with those teams yet. I don't think a handful of promising first year prospects is going to turn that around very quickly. 

[Sviginak]

With four games left, Liam Ohgren has been called up and will travel with the team out West. He will wear sweater #28. He has played 3 games for the Iowa Wild.

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, Protec said:

One thing I think is interesting is how nobody wants to consider moving Rossi or Spurgeon, the smallest guys but keeping Fleury the HOF goalie is a problem? What's the bigger issue to compete in the Central. Faster, more mobile defense and being healthy with young talent? Or simply a better goalie duo? Personally, I haven't had much problem with MAF this season.

I'd be ok moving Spurgeon at this point. We don't have a backfill plan for him, though, and likely get nothing in return....but, could he be more useful as an LTIR player? 

I wouldn't look at plugging a defensive hole coming on the 1st day of UFA. It will be more of a depth signing to maybe a 1 or 2 year deal. 

I haven't been disappointed with MAF this season either, but, he is not the big game goalie we need to get us a win consistently. My eye test says his reflexes are starting to go, and if that happens to a small goalie, no matter how flexible he is, the cliff is right next to him. He wasn't a goalie, but remember how Pominville fell off the cliff in one offseason? Being on the other side of the cliff myself, I can tell you it goes in stages, and those declines are significant.

I do believe some newer players will come in, guys on ELCs or having just graduated from them. It's just me, but I'd rather run with The Wall and Goose, and let Fleury practice with the team. I do believe he will stay in the area. If things go south in the goaltending department, I'd be ok with 1/2 a season with Fleury. 

3 hours ago, Protec said:

I wonder how quickly the Wild could expect rookies to deliver at the NHL level? I.e. Can Guerin expect RasmuKampu, Ohgren, Heidt, or Yurov to be immediate impact guys. Does it fit the hierarchy to promote those guys quickly?

I think there is a spot for Yurov to make the jump, I believe Dino will perform nicely after he's gotten a taste, I expect Chisholm to be back, Hunt to be called up, Lambos to make a huge step forward (injury call up). Let's see how Ohgren does up, but I think Kumpulainen and Heidt are aways off. 

I do think there is a sleeper or 2 in the organization. I expect a great camp out of Beckman, I think Bankier will challenge, but Mikey Milne might be the sneaky candidate to fill out the bottom 6. 

Also, interesting, Firstov has potted his 1st 2 goals for Iowa. Ohgren is scoreless, Peart is scoreless, but after Peart signed, Masters was left with the Heartlanders. 

With the forwards, my guess is that Ohgren is in top chiseled shape. If a couple of guys choose to workout with him, they will get bigger! Out of the guys I mentioned, my bet is that whoever takes bulking up this summer most seriously will be on the roster to start the season.

[Citizen Strife]

Spent a little time doing some rough math.  Here's what both the 10 GF and GA for the highest scoring/defensive and the top 10 overall teams did, and what the Wild are in comparison.

Goals For Per Game (Top 10 Overall)

1. NYR: 274
2. DAL: 293
3. CAR: 267
4. BOS: 260
5. VAN: 270
6. COL: 296
7. FLA: 256
8. WIN: 241
9. EDM: 279
10. TOR: 288

Total of Top 10 Winning Teams: 2,724
AVG of Top 10 Winning Teams: 272
Divided by 77-78 Games: 3.49-3.55 GF P/G

Goals For Per Game (Top 10 Highest Scoring)

1. COL: 296
2. DAL: 293
3. TOR: 288
4. EDM: 279
5. TBL: 279
6. NYR: 274
7. VAN: 270
8. CAR: 267
9. BOS: 260
10. DET: 258

Total of Top 10 Scoring Teams: 2,764
AVG of Top 10 Scoring Teams: 276
Divived by 77-78 Games: 3.54-3.58 GF P/G

20 in both Categories. MIN: 237 (35-40 goals behind Top 10)
3.04-3.05 GF P/G

Goals Against Per Game (Top 10 Overall)

1. NYR: 223
2. DAL: 229
3. CAR: 206
4. BOS: 215
5. VAN: 217
6. COL: 242
7. FLA: 196
8. WIN: 194
9. EDM: 219
10. TOR: 241

Total of Top 10 Winning Teams: 2,182
AVG of Top 10 Winning Teams: 218
Divided By 77-78 Games: 2.79-2.83 GA P/G

Goals Against Per Game (Top 10 Defensive Teams)

1. WIN: 194
2. FLA: 196
3. CAR: 206
4. LAK: 206
5. BOS: 215
6. VAN: 217
7. EDM: 219
8. SEA: 219
9. NYR: 223
10. DAL: 229

Total of Top 10 Defensive Teams: 2,124
AVG of Top 10 Defensive Teams: 212
Divided By 77-78 Games: 2.72-2.75 GA P/G

20 Overall/18th Best Defensively: MIN: 249 (30-35 Goals More Than Top 10 Teams)
Divided By 77-78 Games: 3.17-3.19 GA P/G

 

Again, this is pretty basic, so bear in mind I don't know how official this is.  What I'm seeing from the majority of the middle of each list is 265-275 Goals For and 215-220 Goals Against is what separates Minnesota from this year's playoff teams.  Note, I did not check bubble teams.  I was purely looking at what it would take to separate Minnesota from teams with 100 pts and easily in playoff position.

What this is telling me if every player stays where they were, you're only looking at another 2 15-20-goal scorers or one 30-40 goal scorer to really change the dynamic of the team.  That or let in the equivalent of 30-35 goals less overall, and then you hit top 10, and wouldn't need as much an offensive change to really compete for playoff position.

I definitely think the defense improvement is harder to gauge, but nothing from this tells me Minnesota is so bent down so far it can't be overcome with a few stingy players or 1-2 that explode offensively or even slightly improve to counterract any aging or injury concerns.  

Edited April 11 by Citizen Strife

[Citizen Strife]

I also took a look at Differential, and saw the highest was DAL at +64, while MIN is -12.  76 is a VAST change in one year, but going to the bottom of the Top 10, you have BOS at +45.  That is a less drastic 59 differential, but then take into account bubble teams that are in (Vegas and LA), you get more like +17, +26, +37 give or take.  It becomes less daunting to see even subtle changes turn a team like the Wild from what they had to being a fringe playoff team.

Again, I'm not saying any of this is going to happen in one year.  Just saying it can be built upon either direction and it can change their fortunes pretty quickly.

[Patrick]

Don't forget that by adding Spurgeon you are also subtracting some pretty horrible play by a combination of Merrell, Goligoski and Mermis.  

[kirillgonkillya]

They need to get rid of Spurgeon. He has played 82 games once, and over 70 only 3 other times. Sure he's been great when healthy but that's it, he's never healthy. Plus he's pretty old and I think they need a more vocal leader with some grit. Nows the time to sell when there's still something to get for him especially given the Wild realistically aren't gonna make any noise next year. Even if they squeak in they don't have the depth to contend until the Parise & Suter buyouts aren't an issue anymore. Hate to say that but it's true, I mean you're paying 2 guys top line $ to not even be on the team, how are you gonna have the depth to compete with powerhouse teams who don't have that burden and can spend that $ today? They really need to retool the Defense entirely, other than Faber and Brodin, nobody else instills much confidence but Middsy is alright and is a good 2nd pairing guy. Giving all those mid 30 yr Olds (hartzy, moose, and zuc) those extensions was absolutely stupid although the Zuc one lines up to end when the buyout penalties end so I can see that one. Banking on Moose and Hartzy to replicate that one good year they had in their 30s was foolish by BG and I'm a huge BG supporter. Just didn't make sense to me to lock those guys up and prevent that deep prospect pool from getting NHL experience this season and next when the chances are mighty slim to do some damage in the PO. 

[Dean]

Billy has to run it back because of his contracts and no cap space. He’ll be running it back another 3 years
    Spurg isn’t the problem solver for next year. The wrong side of 30 , serious injuries and small stature aren’t what the wild are missing . Spurg has been a hell of a hockey player but I think his play is going to fall away. Plus the eye test the past few years says he can’t handle the big guys like he used to. 
   Goaltending wasn’t the issue this year. They were trying to say on radio if we only had better goaltending we’d be in playoffs. Goaltending was normal this year but the players in front weren’t. Bad d core. And terrible undersized forwards was the goaltending problem. Letting other team have there way entering the zone and free rein in middle of ice isn’t going to produce good goaltending. It’s shifting blame from the poor roster construction. Billy’s undersized weak team can’t slow anyone down . 
   As far as the prospects I get the optimism in having all these guys coming in near future but I don’t see how they get us to a cup anytime soon. Rossi had a decent season but he’s nowhere near leading a team through the playoffs as a 1 or 2 center. Will he ever be and how long? Idk imo he won’t be that player . I really think he’s like granny. A good player on non playoff team. As for other prospects, which one is going to really step up and change this organization? I don’t see one coming. Walls should be a good goalie.. k nat a decent top nine when he gets real wingers . Ohgren. Who knows? Years till we do . Yurslov is the one remaining  prospect I have some glimmer of hope could do something. So far what I’ve see. And heard about prospects is there average. Every team has ones just like us.  Dallas has great ones they keep adding to line up all year long . They put them with good vets to develop them properly. Not tie them to Fred g then blame them for not developing.  So my faith in our prospects is highly suspect. I believe they are over hyped . 
     As far as kappy. I hole heartedly agree with previous comments about he’s the long game. None of these prospects matter if he walks . The wild we be starting another competitive rebuild if he does. Do I think these prospects are going to turn into playoff players so kappy will stay? No Billy will have to do some horse trading to make an acceptable line up for kappy to stay. Can he get anything for all these 3rd an 4 th rounders. ? He could have with 1sts . If he would have sold at one of the many deadline s. Gm Armstrong was talking about how they draft best player not for needs. They look at prospects as assets to trade . You can’t keep all of them so they draft for players other teams would want by taking best player over best for organization needs at time. They then trade there prospects to get the player they want. When’s Billy going to start thinking like this or doing something to better this team in the here and now?  For that reason I don’t think kappy will stay. He knows better than anyone how far away from Stanley cup we are. He’s give. The wild everything and they’ve given him nothing. I see him in Florida or NYR. 
    So running it back is another wasted season of excuses. Can’t wait to hear the same b.s. this time next year. While good gm s have there teams going in right direction we’re just stuck in never never land. 

[Protec]

What I think is strange is, how MN set a record for points as an organization with a less than elite roster but when the team played like a team. Everyone benefits.

When it becomes an individual game or there's no identity/synergy & buy in the results are diminished. 

Injuries don't help but the Wild aren't lost and forlorn. I will say this off-season is important to boost the trajectory by any means necessary. If that means an end to Fleury or Gus so be it. If it means making a big splash with a trade that includes Rossi or a prospect, so be it as long as it helps the Wild. 

[FredJohnson]

The Wild Are Running It Back Next Year Expecting Different Results
Without the big injuries, isn't this statement skewed? This IS a different team without all the long-term injuries.

[Protec]

The silver lining to the injuries this year is that the Wild were forced to use what they had left. Some good lessons learned.

Faber is ready to take the torch from Spurgeon & Brodin.

Prospects aren't ready to take over and vets aren't capable of holding the fort.

Depth is gone this year and perhaps next. 

Rossi proved himself an NHL player but Guerin can't wait and see with things. He's gotta solidify the cap penalty exodus and do it well. Pick the right guys and don't repeat the mistakes made on value signings or loyalty deals. It's about eff'n winning if I recall. Extensions for #7 and #97 need to be the priority. Get Wallstedt started as a full-time NHL tendy.

[WheelSnipeCelly]

Just looked at Iowa's record and it looks like with Tuesday's loss, they're officially in LAST PLACE in the AHL. I know that the MN's injuries decimated Iowa's roster too, but I would imagine they have to look at the coaching and try something different next season. Hopefully they're able to find someone to right that ship, and especially focus on the D prospects.

On a positive note, despite the team being -62 for the season, Hunt is a ±0 and leads the D with 27 points in 47 games, which isn't too shabby!

[MacGyver]

8 hours ago, Protec said:

What I think is strange is, how MN set a record for points as an organization with a less than elite roster but when the team played like a team. Everyone benefits.

When it becomes an individual game or there's no identity/synergy & buy in the results are diminished. 

Injuries don't help but the Wild aren't lost and forlorn. I will say this off-season is important to boost the trajectory by any means necessary. If that means an end to Fleury or Gus so be it. If it means making a big splash with a trade that includes Rossi or a prospect, so be it as long as it helps the Wild. 

The record points season was a bit magical imo. How many times did they come back from two goals down in the third by pulling the goal tender early and then go on to win it in overtime? When you do things like that consistently the team begins to play together. When good things don't always happen like this year the team chemistry goes sour. Even that magical year the team couldn't get out of the first round. The playoffs in hockey more than any other sport are a separate season unto themselves. 

The stakes get raised and players come to play every night. You don't do the quirky things like pull the goal tender with five minutes left to push for a tie. Every game is too important you have to live to fight another day. Playoff experience is a huge factor. Having players who have been there done that and hopefully have won it before is a major factor. By the time we get back to the playoffs all the aging vets Billy signed are going to be dinosaurs. Then they will be gone their playing days over and we will be a team of young prospects with little to no playoff experience.  

You just keep spinning the wheel every year and hope you land in the right spot where everything converges to make enough magic to get you to the top. 

[FredJohnson]

9 hours ago, Protec said:

Depth is gone this year and perhaps next. 

Maybe...maybe not. My frustration has been with the big club not giving guys in Iowa a real tryout when it's OBVIOUS the vets (ex. Nojo and Freddie, a.k.a. The Cardio Boys) aren't good enough. (The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different outcome.) What's the downside? Is there really a risk of damaging a prospect by playing him for 6-9 games with real minutes? GMBG and Hynes have new long-term contracts - are they afraid of being fired?? Beckman getting 5 minutes on the 4th line for 2 games then sitting in the press box for 2-3 games is NOT what I'm looking for.

The only way I can rationalize the moves made this year is that Leipold is pressing so hard to make the playoffs that desperate moves/decisions are being made.

Your thoughts?

[Citizen Strife]

That is part some forget.  "Tank is a word we've never said here."

So,Guerin's best alternative is keeping the 1sts/2nds in drafts rather than giving them out for higher profile trades. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Protec said:

What I think is strange is, how MN set a record for points as an organization with a less than elite roster but when the team played like a team. Everyone benefits.

When it becomes an individual game or there's no identity/synergy & buy in the results are diminished. 

Could this be because a new coach was put in during the season? 

I'm thinking that Heinzy and Evason see things differently and that Heinzy never bought into Evason's system. Well, coming out of camp, the Wild were committed to playing Evason's system. Heinzy couldn't just change that, so I think he's been trying to tweak Evason's system but will install his next season.

Most people say that hockey systems are pretty much the same. I don't know that this is true, I'm sure different aspects are emphasized. If I were to change things with a new system, I would demand that we quit playing perimeter hockey and please stop the constant rim arounds. I'd make sure that more players were driving the net. One other important thing is dump ins. So many defenseman (not just the Wild) hit the red line and crank it in on the rim around. This is kind of dumb, especially when we are 6-5. 

Now, in the above, the problem I see is that the Wild are constantly rimming and not flipping it into a specific area. On top of that, when they flip, they've got forwards standing, waiting at the Blue Line. To me this is really dumb. Those guys should be moving, not standing still waiting. If you're going to dump and chase, you have to have guys with momentum going forward to get an extra step on defenders who have to turn and go. This concept is not that difficult, yet the team simply won't do it. Are they being coached this way?