Article: The Time Is Now To Lock Up Marco Rossi

[Tony Abbott]

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[Pewterschmidt]

I am a fan of a short term bridge deal for Rossi.  I absolutely want to keep him here but need to see another stair step next season to lock him up for 7yrs at $7M per.  If he regresses after we give him a 7 year deal that's like going back to cap purgatory all over again

[Protec]

Sounds reasonable. My question is more around the number and timing of all the hot prospects. What does Guerin plan to do related to the group and where they all fit? How you pay em all or not.

[mnfaninnc]

I'm pretty confident that Faber will perform at a high level. He's shown it with opportunity. I could see 8 X $8m and I'd be ok with that.

Rossi, on the other hand I do not feel as confident in. He's had a great rookie year, much like Faber, but to me the eye test is a player who is lower than Faber.

If he wants to sign a long term deal in the Ek range, that might be where I'd feel comfortable going long term. But if we're talking $7m+, I think I'd want a bridge deal first. 

We kind of know what Rossi can do on his own. And we've seen him do well between Kaprizov and Zuccarello. Where I think he'll improve greatly are in assists when he's got viable linemates who can bury pucks. Paired on the top line, he has that and has shown well. Away from them, though, he's not as good. 

However, the biggest concern I have is his strength/weight. Yes, he did everything last offseason. Really, he needs to follow that up with the same type of offseason. I might feel better about it after he does this and comes in even stockier. But, as we saw with Boldy, if he decides that golfing in the summer is a better use of his time and doesn't hit the weights, or if he just does conditioning stuff, then I'm not sold on a long term deal. 

The logic is simple: Ek took 2-3 offseasons to get to his beastly size and then worked on his skill. But, when he signed his deal, he signed it being a beast. Rossi already has some really good skill, but he also has a tendency to get run over by bigger players. Sure, he pops back up and he also delivers some hits, but he's just not quite there yet. I want him focused and hungry. 

I think we can go back and also ask the question: Is the team ready to commit 100% behind Rossi? A bridge deal is much easier to trade a guy with. Is Rossi part of this new core?

I believe he is, but I am not at 100% barring injury yet. And, I wonder how Haight and Heidt will do, as well as Dino. Which of these are the best? A bridge deal buys us time to figure this out.....unless as a team you get incredible value from a long term deal. 

I like to look at both trends and the here and now. With the here and now, Rossi is not worth $6m. I'd even struggle with the $4m mark. I think he could be challenged again to do the same thing again in another year. I think it may have been wise to do the same thing for Boldy, and then give him his money. In looking at the trend, if he grows at a good pace, a $6m long term deal could be a huge bargain. Even at $7m, the back 9 of that deal could be a steal. But, this is a could, not a will.

So, my gut says lock up Faber long term, and bridge Rossi. I'm simply not comfortable throwing around large sums of money with guys who are that young. It makes them appear satisfied. We need to look no further than Hartman, Foligno, Freddy, and Johansson to see what satisfied gets you. Plus, Rossi's only going to be a .5 ppg player this season.

[Pewterschmidt]

14 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I am a fan of a short term bridge deal for Rossi.  I absolutely want to keep him here but need to see another stair step next season to lock him up for 7yrs at $7M per.  If he regresses after we give him a 7 year deal that's like going back to cap purgatory all over again

Think of the small sample size of Foligno's GREEF year(s) that got him paid long term.  Think about Fred's outlier season that got him paid long term.  Let's not repeat those mistakes again.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 minute ago, mnfaninnc said:

Where I think he'll improve greatly are in assists when he's got viable linemates who can bury pucks. Paired on the top line, he has that and has shown well. Away from them, though, he's not as good. 

Great point.  He's spent much of his season with 3rd liners and nojo/fred.  And he's still producing offense.  This is a positive take on Rossi.  He should only get more valuable with productive linemates.

[Burnt Toast]

I’m glad the Wild have found a complimentary skill player who has proven he’s willing to put in the work to keep improving. I’m confident he’s going to get stronger over the next few years. If the Wild offer a bridge deal, say 3 years, that will offset a bit of short term risk. The thing is if Rossi continues to roll that risk is coming back with interest. Personally I’d lock him up now because I think he’s only going to improve. 

[Citizen Strife]

Maybe split the difference and do something like 2-3 years for $5 million?  No guarantees, but you don't just want to give up on Rossi early.

[FredJohnson]

Is there any substance to the Rossi trade rumor? I know every player has a price but I think he's more valuable to us than he is to most teams (top-6 center). And we don't have a replacement for him.

[MNCountryLife]

Sign Faber to the 8x8.   Faber is here to stay.  I would hesitate to sign anyone else.  We are still short another stud D-man or 2.  That is easily my largest roster concern.  We have 14 roster spots opening up by 25-26.  The year we bust out of cap hell.  I doubt that is coincidence.  If the talent is not where it needs to be.. find it.  Be cautious about signing mid-level guys that stagnate.

[Dis-allowed display name]

Heck yeah it is time to lock him up.  Any talk of moving him is crazy.  Put the poor guy with at least one of Kaprisov or Boldy.   Name a guy with more skill that we have had at center in the last decade?  He is also too young to let go for some old fart Guerin will sign as a replacement.

The mishandling/use of this guy is a crime, but how else will Freddie get his minutes?

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

Is there any substance to the Rossi trade rumor? I know every player has a price but I think he's more valuable to us than he is to most teams (top-6 center). And we don't have a replacement for him.

I doubt there's much to it at this time. Rossi was mentioned as a possible trade candidate last year, and that's likely just following him. The fact that people were calling the Wild to inquire on Rossi, but he's still around may suggest they want to keep him around.

Rossi bought into what the Wild wanted from him, so I suspect the likelihood of a trade has subsided substantially.

On the other hand, a team that's offering a pick + a prime player on a good contract, looking to get younger NHL talent, might call with an offer that is too good to pass up. GMs are supposed to listen, but that doesn't mean a move is imminent. If another team gets crazy in their pursuit, I'm sure they'd let him go, but I don't think the Wild are really shopping him at this point.

[IllicitFive]

2 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Great point.  He's spent much of his season with 3rd liners and nojo/fred.  And he's still producing offense.  This is a positive take on Rossi.  He should only get more valuable with productive linemates.

Long term contracts are always a gamble, who knows if an injury will hit or what. But long term now is cheaper than long term if he takes another step or 2 which will limit other players getting paid if they pan out. The fact he did produce with a couple of sand bags I feel shows how driven he is, could easily have gotten frustrated and taken shifts off. I am a gambling man, I think if you can do 5 to 6 mil a year longer extension you do it. 

[kapislife]

Just don't Flippin trade him. Christ, we have been waiting for a good center for years and now we might have 2? Trade him for a bag of donuts it's what mn teams do. I get the "he's tiny" argument, I wish he was 6'1" too. Hell he may even wish that lol but I'll take a shorter stoutly built dude that can puck pucks in the twine anyday

[TCMooch]

I would sign Rossi to no more than $6 million a year contract. I think he's gonna be a good long term player and I think having cost certainty in that range will be seen as a huge deal for the team in years to come. Honestly, probably anything around $6.5 million or less could be considered a very decent deal for the team.

[kapislife]

See if he'll take 5 mill a year and costco membership for life

[Will D. Ness]

Rossi seems like one of those driven guys that is just going to get a little better year after year.  He's got the right attitude... isn't a prima donna.  I'm thinking he is a guy many teams would value. 

[FredJohnson]

59 minutes ago, kapislife said:

See if he'll take 5 mill a year and costco membership for life

Kohls Cash left over from Kirk Cousins.

[Patrick]

What more could Rossi have done? Unless he supplanted Ek on the top line his point ceiling was going to be relatively low due to poor teammates.  I say sign him long term IF he gives a discount. Otherwise bridge deal.  The Wild have an abundance of young talent coming up and have to make sure there is ample money for KK97. I love Rossi and hope he takes a discount for term.

[mnfaninnc]

19 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

If the Wild offer a bridge deal, say 3 years, that will offset a bit of short term risk. The thing is if Rossi continues to roll that risk is coming back with interest. Personally I’d lock him up now because I think he’s only going to improve. 

My bridge would be 2 years, and if he improves/proves that he can do it again and will strengthen, then you can go with the larger contract. He will be more mature at that time, and have a better track record. Yes, it may cost a little more, but it should still be a pretty good deal on the back 9 of the contract. 

I also "think" and project that he will improve. However, you can't go on what you "think" with these large and long contracts, you need some evidence. Thinks and coulds are hit and miss. I'd also say that due to Rossi's current build, he may be more susceptible to injury. Faber has a larger frame and seems to slip hits better. I'd be less worried about injury with him (though 10 lbs. of strength would do him well). 

Bottom line is that I just don't see the evidence available to give Rossi top money. Put another way, he's 1/2 in productive NHL years so far. I think we simply need to see more evidence.

On the flip side, Faber is 2/2 in his NHL productiveness, while year 1 was very brief. Still, he passed and took over the Merrill/Goligoski spot and performed very well against a superior team. 

[mnfaninnc]

19 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Maybe split the difference and do something like 2-3 years for $5 million?  No guarantees, but you don't just want to give up on Rossi early.

To me this is overpaying his production. He's a rookie. He couldn't make it in his 1st 2 ELC years. He has not earned $5m yet. 

I'd refer you to Goose's contract. He got a significant raise and was a tick over Fleury's salary. Yet, he's struggled all year with consistency. Don't put the yoke of large money on the kid's shoulders just yet. Let him know he's still in the proving stages of his career. 

Ok, he had a 40 point season. You think he'll do better surrounded by better players. I do too, but, he hasn't done it yet. Make him do it first before the pay.

Also, pay usually lags production. You generally get paid for what you've done, not what you might do going forward. This was why I was wincing at Boldy's deal. Yes, he could be a real bargain on the back end, but, as he showed this past offseason, instead of working on hockey weaknesses, he played a ton of golf. Same can be said for Goose too. 

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

On the other hand, a team that's offering a pick + a prime player on a good contract, looking to get younger NHL talent, might call with an offer that is too good to pass up. GMs are supposed to listen, but that doesn't mean a move is imminent. If another team gets crazy in their pursuit, I'm sure they'd let him go, but I don't think the Wild are really shopping him at this point.

What would be your example of a team offering a pick + prime player?

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, IllicitFive said:

I am a gambling man, I think if you can do 5 to 6 mil a year longer extension you do it. 

I am not a gambling man, but at $5-6m on a long term deal, that's really too good to pass up. I could see signing him to a notch below Ek, and I'd have to do it!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

45 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

What would be your example of a team offering a pick + prime player?

I don't think this is going to happen, but say a team like Columbus says to themselves that they don't think they are going to win in the near future, perhaps they want to get younger and trade Boone Jenner with a 2nd round pick for Rossi?

Jenner has size, can win faceoffs, scores at a 30 goal pace per 80 games the last 3 years, and is on a contract at $3.75M per year through 25-26. He's playing both PP and PK, getting 20 minutes per night. Seems like someone Guerin might like.

Boone Jenner is 30, about to turn 31, so slightly older than ideal, and he's the captain for Columbus as well. Purely just an example as I don't think anything like this is going to happen. I believe the Wild will keep Rossi.

[MrCheatachu]

21 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I am a fan of a short term bridge deal for Rossi.  I absolutely want to keep him here but need to see another stair step next season to lock him up for 7yrs at $7M per.  If he regresses after we give him a 7 year deal that's like going back to cap purgatory all over again

Buying out a player <26 is only a 1/3 cap hit compared to the 2/3 cap hit once they're 26. Buying-out a $7M contract is a bargain of $2.3M/year (assuming you dont front load it).

But that's the gamble if you bridge him, if he gets better he's going to be unaffordable long term if he gets better.  If he poops the bed, you look better but will have to answer why you didnt trade him when his value was the highest and he had 'potential'