Article: Is Marco Rossi Pushing Brock Faber In the Calder Trophy Race?

[Tony Abbott]

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[Pewterschmidt]

Marco is proving to be more Finnish than Swedish.  This Wild fan is beginning to like this kid's potential.

[Citizen Strife]

Sign both long-term, and Bedard can win unanimously for all I care.

[Will D. Ness]

If you hand out a trophy to a guy who is a -37, does that mean the trophy is a joke?

[Imyourhuckleberry]

7 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

If you hand out a trophy to a guy who is a -37, does that mean the trophy is a joke?

Primarily means his team is a joke, but he certainly isn't strong defensively. Their PP is much more effective when he's on the ice.

[Dango]

Rossi & Faber  77 points

Parise & Suter  on much more potent offenses  25 points  

[MNCountryLife]

2 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

If you hand out a trophy to a guy who is a -37, does that mean the trophy is a joke?

Great jab at Bedard... Love it!!!   This is a two way game.

[MNCountryLife]

Always fun to discuss the success of a player(s).  However, I would also enjoy reading an article on who is costing us wins.  Which players are not pulling their weight?  What are their weaknesses?  How are they negatively impacting the team?

Thanks for all the articles you guys write at HW.  My favorite site to visit for a MN Wild hockey fix.  

[Tony Abbott]

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

Always fun to discuss the success of a player(s).  However, I would also enjoy reading an article on who is costing us wins.  Which players are not pulling their weight?  What are their weaknesses?  How are they negatively impacting the team?

Thanks for all the articles you guys write at HW.  My favorite site to visit for a MN Wild hockey fix.  

I generally try not to go negative on individual players, because 1) it's more fun to talk about the things that are going well and 2) I don't want to lead too many pile-ons. But the players in with negative SPAR for the Wild this year (not counting small samples):

Gaudreau: -1.7
Mermis: -1.4
Hunt: -0.9
Goligoski: -0.6
Lucchini: -0.4
Chisholm: -0.1

[MrCheatachu]

Listen, I was a voice over the summer who said Fabes had no shot at winning the Calder as there was going to be a ton of offensive power (Bedard/Fantinelli/Rossi, and hell even Knies looked like a stud in the playoffs) and unless he had a 'Makar-esque' rookie season, that the award was going to a forward who dumped a bucket of points this season.

SERVE ME MY CROW!

I'm not going to kid myself, and think Faber's got a shot at winning.  The league wanted to deliver a generational talent to Chicago, and the league is going to give them the Calder and Celebrini, full stop.  But damn, the kid has exceeded my expectations, and I'll gladly admit I was wrong on that old Hockeywilderness post from the summer that was predicting Brock would be more likely than Rossi to be in the discussion.

I think Brock gets paid this summer.  But sadly, and I hope I'm wrong here again, I don't see Rossi as a long-term player for this team.  I'm guessing it's more likely he gets move this summer than a long term deal.

[Tony Abbott]

People are making way too much of Bedard's plus/minus, IMO. The Blackhawks are the fourth-worst team at 5-on-5 in Goals For% and Expected Goals For%. They're one of the five absolute worst teams in recent memory, without a doubt. That and bad goaltending luck for 1000 minutes is gonna do a number on anyone's plus/minus. 

In general, it's a useless stat, and it sucks that this kid's getting bodied for a stat that doesn't really tell you anything about how he's played.

[Will D. Ness]

4 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

People are making way too much of Bedard's plus/minus, IMO. The Blackhawks are the fourth-worst team at 5-on-5 in Goals For% and Expected Goals For%. They're one of the five absolute worst teams in recent memory, without a doubt. That and bad goaltending luck for 1000 minutes is gonna do a number on anyone's plus/minus. 

In general, it's a useless stat, and it sucks that this kid's getting bodied for a stat that doesn't really tell you anything about how he's played.

I feel the same way about most stats.  They are inherently flawed.  The worst is how they are represented as being an objective means to purvey opinion.  Rarely do they identify anything all that profound other than how bad opinion is in general.

The other thing that is inherently flawed is how people value offense over defense like preventing a goal is somehow worth less than scoring one.  Most trophies and awards are skewed towards offense, even the ones they give to the guys who play D.

I wonder how many points Rossi would have if he sold out every shift and didn't worry about defense or winning?  More than Bedard?

Handing out trophies to anyone on one of the worst five teams in history is disrespectful to the game.

 

[Tony Abbott]

2 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

I wonder how many points Rossi would have if he sold out every shift and didn't worry about defense or winning?  More than Bedard?

Handing out trophies to anyone on one of the worst five teams in history is disrespectful to the game.

I see where you're going, but even if Bedard committed 100% to defense, 1) That's not his game, and 2) that's not going to help his team win. This is a team where he's very much the only offensive catalyst. The Blackhawks scored 20 goals in 14 games without him and went 3-10-1 without him. If he's not focused 100% on creating offense, his team doesn't have a prayer.

[Up North Guy]

4 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

People are making way too much of Bedard's plus/minus, IMO. The Blackhawks are the fourth-worst team at 5-on-5 in Goals For% and Expected Goals For%. They're one of the five absolute worst teams in recent memory, without a doubt. That and bad goaltending luck for 1000 minutes is gonna do a number on anyone's plus/minus. 

In general, it's a useless stat, and it sucks that this kid's getting bodied for a stat that doesn't really tell you anything about how he's played.

You are absolutely correct Tony. The Hawks are putrid. I just hope they don't get the kids they are drafting killed. I have seen Bedard maybe a half dozen times in games on TV. His offensive ability is jaw dropping (no pun meant). He is only 18 years old and has a ton of growing to do. That said, his 200 ft game is non-existent. It didn't even look like he tried to play any defensive hockey. Maybe the team does not want him to out of concern he will get hurt. I hope he develops an all around game.

[MNCountryLife]

16 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

I generally try not to go negative on individual players

I get that.

[Protec]

Bedard is a dynamic scorer and NHL golden boy. The Calder is going to him.

Faber and Rossi have both been really good. A year without a "generational" player would have allowed one of them a chance to win. 

[Will D. Ness]

15 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

I see where you're going, but even if Bedard committed 100% to defense, 1) That's not his game, and 2) that's not going to help his team win. This is a team where he's very much the only offensive catalyst. The Blackhawks scored 20 goals in 14 games without him and went 3-10-1 without him. If he's not focused 100% on creating offense, his team doesn't have a prayer.

Well, going 17-36 with Bedard isn't too impressive either.  My beef is more with the trophy itself than the "true" value of a 18 year old kid with some nice moves.  

His value is negligible really.  The team is trying to lose.  They are historically shitty.  His glam moves may have some glitter ball to them but does that mean that we all have to pretend here?  Must we anoint?

He plays on half the ice.  Give him half a trophy?  😛

[mnfaninnc]

IMO, Rossi will probably be in Vegas for the awards, as 1 of the 3 finalists. Unfortunately for him, Bedard pretty much beats him as a forward. 

I also believe that Faber will get his invitation also, and this is where the voters are really going to have a dilemma. Bedard wins in offensive stats, but as a defensemen, to even stay in pace with Bedard in assists is really, really good. Faber dominates the defensive categories, and the TOI. To my knowledge, he has won the head to head battle with Bedard, though Chicago-MN games are typically national games and I get blocked. 

The main thing here is that either choice can be defended well. Having 2 guys at Vegas for the same award really shows how deep our prospect pool was. And, more are coming. I was a year late on Rossi being a Calder candidate. Faber, due to the injuries, has pretty much single handedly, held down the fort on defense. I do think a tiebreaker in this should be team success. 

A word on the +/- debate. This is a relative stat. Bedard is on a hugely unsuccessful team, but where does the -37 stand with his teammates? If it is low, and a -37 seems like it would be, then, that should be taken into consideration. If it is pretty much even with the rest of his line and team, well, it's less of an important stat. 

Lastly, I'd also like to point out that availability is an ability stat that we should be considering. For a defender to play as many games and have the TOI that Faber does should also be considered. Bedard already missed quite a bit of time this season. Faber has not, and for that matter, neither has Rossi. 

I believe the final vote is probably already rigged, not so much due to Bedard's outstanding play, but due to him being in a big market, original 6 team, and the NHL wants to market that. Also, having 2 candidates on the same team sometimes takes votes away from one another. But, who really cares about the Calder?

What we should be caring about is that 2 of our rookies in their rookie years played above almost every other prospect on other team's rosters. That fact moves forward. 

 

[bisopher]

21 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

I generally try not to go negative on individual players, because 1) it's more fun to talk about the things that are going well and 2) I don't want to lead too many pile-ons. But the players in with negative SPAR for the Wild this year (not counting small samples):

Gaudreau: -1.7
Mermis: -1.4
Hunt: -0.9
Goligoski: -0.6
Lucchini: -0.4
Chisholm: -0.1

Appreciate your candor, Tony.  Now, how about a different exercise:

Take the SPAR that Spurgeon, Brodin, Kaprizov, and Ek have earned season-to-date, and project where the Wild would be if they had only missed half the games they did.

[Tony Abbott]

4 hours ago, bisopher said:

Appreciate your candor, Tony.  Now, how about a different exercise:

Take the SPAR that Spurgeon, Brodin, Kaprizov, and Ek have earned season-to-date, and project where the Wild would be if they had only missed half the games they did.

I wrote last week that Spurgeon would give Minnesota three points, easy. My guess is those other three probably account for about a point, but I haven't done the math.

[Up North Guy]

9 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Bedard is on a hugely unsuccessful team, but where does the -37 stand with his teammates?

I think I read Russo today wrote that Bedard has the worst +/- on the Hawks. 

[mnfaninnc]

27 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

I think I read Russo today wrote that Bedard has the worst +/- on the Hawks.

Well, then, relative to his teammates, it must be taken into consideration.

[MacGyver]

17 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I believe the final vote is probably already rigged, not so much due to Bedard's outstanding play, but due to him being in a big market, original 6 team, and the NHL wants to market that.

I felt from the start of the season the Calder was Bedard's not to lose but just simply Bedard's. The league has invested heavily in Bedard with marketing and hype. He will be like Gretzky or McDavid where he will sell seats in places where those tickets would have not been purchased otherwise. That alone will get you a trophy.  Somethings are just predetermined and Bedard winning the Calder is one of those things. 

I get the Faber argument for the Calder more so than Rossi but neither is going to happen.  A silly hypothetical. Who would trade Faber straight up for Bedard?

Edited March 27 by MacGyver

[Up North Guy]

5 hours ago, MacGyver said:

I felt from the start of the season the Calder was Bedard's not to lose but just simply Bedard's. The league has invested heavily in Bedard with marketing and hype. He will be like Gretzky or McDavid where he will sell seats in places where those tickets would have not been purchased otherwise. That alone will get you a trophy.  Somethings are just predetermined and Bedard winning the Calder is one of those things. 

I get the Faber argument for the Calder more so than Rossi but neither is going to happen.  A silly hypothetical. Who would trade Faber straight up for Bedard?

Bedard winning the Calder was baked in long before the draft. The NHL wanted it along with the NHL wanting Chicago to get Bedard. Therefore it is inevitable.

[raithis]

7 hours ago, MacGyver said:

Who would trade Faber straight up for Bedard?

I wouldn't trade for him.  I wouldn't even trade Rossi for him, but then I value two-way play.

Yes, Bedard has a lot of offensive skill, but with his defensive side as lacking as it is, I see him as a bit of a liability.  I see Bedard as less of the new Crosby or McDavid and more as a more offensively-gifted version of Zegras.

I also think that if Rossi puts in another summer like last off-season, that he might even outpace Bedard in points next year.  Maybe that's my two-way player bias clouding my judgment, but I feel like there's a legitimate chance that will happen, barring injuries of course.