Article: The Wild Are Caught In A Vicious Cycle

[Tom Schreier]

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[Citizen Strife]

I thought this was a Tony article the whole time...

[MrCheatachu]

Quote

Guerin is making the same mistake Chuck Fletcher made before him, just in a different way. Fletcher committed to Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, who are good hockey players but not All-Stars like Marian Gaborik or Kaprizov.

Yeah...that's not fair to Parise and KwikTrip.

Those contracts aged like crap, but they were retroactively penalized by their frontloadedness. But in 2012, given the opportunity, every single GM in the league would have signed them.  Those contract's weren't seen as a noose when they were signed, but just the wild playing the same game everyone else was.

[Burnt Toast]

“It’s hard to see how they escape it.”  I think that statement holds up very well…. Until the beginning of the 25-26 season. Why do I say that? Because the Wild have telegraphed their plan. It’s exceptionally clear, and is wrapped up in what GMBG believes as far as priorities….

#1 Resign KK No brainer 

#2 Integrate skill and speed on ELCs  I’d say looks good 

#3 Get bigger. Stramel was a step in that direction and I think they will draft a big D this year. 

#4 Quality goal tending. I’d say To be determined but treading in the right direction. 

I’ll stop there. I think it’s reasonable to expect that the Wild will be contending for a SC in a big way starting in 2025. We very well could be entering into an unprecedented “Golden Era” of Wild hockey. 

[B1GKappa97]

21 minutes ago, Burnt Toast said:

#3 Get bigger. Stramel was a step in that direction and I think they will draft a big D this year. 

Depends on where they finish. If they're outside the top-12 then they'll probably be better off drafting a winger with size. A guy like Greentree or Nygard are more middle-6 than top-6ers but they come with NHL ready size at least. 

The top defensemen probably aren't falling that far. Maybe the Russian guy just because of the KHL headache but also unlikely. 

[MNCountryLife]

Why was Nojo on the penalty kill for that first goal.  When the D crossed over he got lost in space as everyone else rotated and we ended up short a low man for an easy goal by the Blues.  Either he needs to switch sides fast so the D can stay low or he needs to slide back to allow the Defender to step up.  He did neither.  His positioning was awful.  

[Protec]

23 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Why was Nojo on the penalty kill for that first goal.  When the D crossed over he got lost in space as everyone else rotated and we ended up short a low man for an easy goal by the Blues.  Either he needs to switch sides fast so the D can stay low or he needs to slide back to allow the Defender to step up.  He did neither.  His positioning was awful.  

Yes. I posted the highlights of that. He never takes his eyes of the puck. He's not paying attention or anticipating anything. It's textbook going through the motions, followed by surprise shame. Embarrassing. STL throws movement into the play and MN stands totally still.

NoJo could've picked up the player who skates through the middle. Instead, the guy just goes right to the back door as the pass arrives. Really nice play by STL to victimize the Wild PK.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

NoJo could've picked up the player who skates through the middle. Instead, the guy just goes right to the back door as the pass arrives. Really nice play by STL to victimize the Wild PK.

Why not use Dino there? Why baby him in the game, why not see what he can do? Surely the PK was in the systems packet he was sent? Wouldn't it be worthwhile to use the new toys? He has little tape, so St. Louis had no idea how he'd react.

[mnfaninnc]

I simply can't buy what Tom is selling in this article. Yes, we could have gotten futures for the extended guys, but Guerin knows he wants those guys going forward. It's a risk to sell them as a rental and then resign them in the offseason (although, AZ has been pretty good at that). 

Based on the actual prices that were paid at the deadline, I'm not sure we could have gotten what was being speculated in an earlier article either. Guys were going for far less than we thought. Teams weren't willing to give up those premium picks very easily. 

Even if this team misses the playoffs this year, I think Guerin still likes the team and will be counting on a bounce back for next season. I can certainly see that logic. At the beginning, I thought we only really had room for 1 resigning. That would still be my opinion today as I would have rather resigned the Deweys who would have been far less expensive. Reality is that we needed open roster spots at the end of the year, and we also needed some veterans to show the youngens the way. I personally felt like the Deweys could have done that, but that's simply an arm chair opinion. 

Now, this quote really bothers me:

Quote

“We didn't have our execution down today. That's all,” Marcus Foligno said after Sunday’s loss in St. Louis. “It's a team that's very beatable, and we didn't play to our standard. Third period was good. We had a good comeback.

“Obviously, it's nice to get one, but we need two.”

It bothers me in 2 aspects-

1. How many games does it take to learn your lesson. You failed to do this with Winnipeg, with Nashville, with Dallas. I didn't see anyone breaking sticks over goal posts at the end of the game. I didn't see any emotion, throwing water bottles, coolers, kicking stuff on the way off the ice. Yes, it's being a sore loser, but, you need a couple of sore losers on your team that just can't stand losing
2. In a game that is so important, how do you go through 1.5 periods with about 6 shots on goal? It's like you're not even trying! The whole team looked like they just woke up from their naps. How do you not get up for this game? This is a serious question, how do you not get up for this game and come out like gangbusters? You've got 15 games left and you're having to chase down a team way ahead of you. How do you not give a full balls out effort in each of these last 15 games???

[greg]

I totally agree with this article.  We'll researched and thought out.  Again we are stuck with a few too many players that just go through the motions.  Bill Guerin continues to support that approach.

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, greg said:

I totally agree with this article.  We'll researched and thought out.  Again we are stuck with a few too many players that just go through the motions.  Bill Guerin continues to support that approach.

The Country Club tagline: It's about f#@%ing winning....

[Patrick]

8 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

I thought this was a Tony article the whole time...

Based on the negativity it could be.

[Patrick]

Why does every fan assume that if their team tanks they will get #1 overall pick for 3 consecutive years?  Statistically speaking tanking doesn't work. There have been dozens of tanks in the last twenty years and only 2 or 3 have worked. I would much rather watch decent hockey year after year than horrible hockey for a 1 out of 15 chance of winning the cup. It's illogical but that's hardly surprising. We are sports fans after all.

[raithis]

11 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

I thought this was a Tony article the whole time...

"Think you could write a story like this?"

Apparently that's taken literally at times.  I feel like I've read that same article on multiple occasions.  It's a vicious recycle of sorts.  One might suggest that it validates the assertions being made, but that's only if the other parts of the picture are again ignored - the biggest part of that picture being the patience for the prospects we have to develop and displace some of the veteran players to lesser roles or off the roster entirely.

That's not to slag on the writers because there are a lot of interesting takes too and I really do appreciate that.  Tony himself has written a lot of good articles, as have many of the other writers.  I'd like to see Luke, Kalisha, and Justin write a little more often, and I certainly don't want Tony to stop writing.

I may not always agree with everyone's perspective, but I like the thought process.  What I don't like is beating a dead horse just for the sake of beating it rather than realistic, thorough analysis that supports the point being made, regardless of whether I agree with it.

[mnfaninnc]

15 hours ago, Patrick said:

Why does every fan assume that if their team tanks they will get #1 overall pick for 3 consecutive years?  Statistically speaking tanking doesn't work. There have been dozens of tanks in the last twenty years and only 2 or 3 have worked. I would much rather watch decent hockey year after year than horrible hockey for a 1 out of 15 chance of winning the cup. It's illogical but that's hardly surprising. We are sports fans after all.

I think if you look at some of the teams around, they assume that they can be built that way. It is assumed that TBL went this route, getting Stamkos and Hedman, but the true talent of TBL were the other picks especially hitting on non-first rounders. They also made some very good trades taking advantage of teams in cap trouble.

They also look at Pittsburgh which is an anomaly. Pittsburgh was really bad and got Sid, but they also were really bad when there was a lockout and got to pick b2b top. Getting Fleury and Malkin around Sid made them really, really good, only having to be bad for 2 seasons. 

Now, you look at Edmonton with McDavid and Draisaitl and you overlook the painful years they went through drafting Yakupov and RNH and even Eberle. What you don't see are the whiffs they had in those drafts, drafting at the top of the rounds and coming away empty after the 1st. They should be a juggernaut right now.

What about the Buffalos, Arizonas, Ottawas, Montreals and now Chicagos of the league who just want to fast forward through 5 seasons? And Buffalo once again started selling off their top assets. Every year they start out with the goal of making the playoffs, and on paper they look decent, but they just don't get there. Even Detroit went through pain after 20+ years of making the playoffs! But now, they look like they're ready to go. 

I also think that some fans have a video game mentality where they can get immediate help and developing in the video game is usually successful. A lot more goes into that, and you have to hit on the lower picks too for it to really work. 

Then there are some teams that never seem to go through these tanks. Say, for instance Boston. Somehow they've been able to maintain good play even after losing their top 2 Cs from last season. Vegas has really never known hard times, and they played their Expansion draft really well. 

My research has shown that if you can draft in a 3 year period, 2 of those 3 years you hit on 3-4 draft picks, you can build a real contender for a long time. The 3rd year you'd probably get 2, but in doing this you've got a group of guys the same age with the same goals loyal to each other. Those teams tend to stick together. I did not research what happens if you trade for a guy in that draft, but I'd have to conclude that doing so will help. 

If you look at our teams, the previous regime focused on the 2010 draft. He had some nice pieces from that draft that made the team. Fletcher's problem was he only got 1 year, and he needed another draft around that time that could produce 3-4 players who would make a significant contribution. He hit again in 2015 on this, but had nothing surrounding it. 

For the 2020 draft, we've got Rossi, Dino, and Hunt who have debuted, and the traded for Faber. From 2019 we've got Boldy with question marks on Beckman, and Firstov. Hunter Jones was a bust. 

From 2021, though, you've got Lambos, The Wall, Peart, Bankier, Masters, all who have maybes by their name. The problem is that outside of The Wall, these guys are just starting in the A this year. This could be one of those draft classes that pears with 2020, and, 2022 looks pretty good too. I would argue that this is the best way to build a team.

[mnfaninnc]

10 hours ago, raithis said:

I'd like to see Luke, Kalisha, and Justin write a little more often

Raithis, there are 2 Justins, are you talking about both?

[Will D. Ness]

The big tank mentality is kind of like a gamblers mentality.  For those who hit big, they look like a genius, and for the rest of those who miss, they look like a bunch of losers and fools.

It comes down to generational talent.  If your big tank hits the generational talent then that is step one of the parlay.  It doesn't equate to a dynasty.  You have to hit many steps of that parlay.  

It's a long shot gamble that requires years of intentional losing which once begun can turn into a decade for many teams who didn't hit big and have to chase it.

It's a stupid bet and one you only take if you are in that singular position where your talent is aging and your pipeline is empty because you spent it all maximizing your window of opportunity.

This constant default to "tanking" by media and fans for any team that is in the 'mushy middle' is more of a symptom of being irrational and upset from sports mania PTSD... or simply being a degenerate gambler as Tony Soprano used to say.

[Up North Guy]

22 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

Either he needs to switch sides fast

I am all for NoJo switching sides. He would look great in a Blues uni.

[raithis]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Raithis, there are 2 Justins, are you talking about both?

Both I guess.  For some reason I only recall the one.

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, Will D. Ness said:

The big tank mentality is kind of like a gamblers mentality.  For those who hit big, they look like a genius, and for the rest of those who miss, they look like a bunch of losers and fools.

It comes down to generational talent.  If your big tank hits the generational talent then that is step one of the parlay.  It doesn't equate to a dynasty.  You have to hit many steps of that parlay.  

It's a long shot gamble that requires years of intentional losing which once begun can turn into a decade for many teams who didn't hit big and have to chase it.

It's a stupid bet and one you only take if you are in that singular position where your talent is aging and your pipeline is empty because you spent it all maximizing your window of opportunity.

This constant default to "tanking" by media and fans for any team that is in the 'mushy middle' is more of a symptom of being irrational and upset from sports mania PTSD... or simply being a degenerate gambler as Tony Soprano used to say.

There are times when it makes sense. I think with all the injuries this year and the lack of depth it would have made sense to try to add a top 5 guy with JEEK KK, Boldy, Rossi etc. etc. Bring up the young players give them legitimate opportunities. That wouldn't be a total tank, but it would have been a good year to add another high ender.

[Gavan]

Vets were extended to ameliorate the precarious state of a half-hearted season. Guerin and the State don't have a tank in them. We have three top notch rookies with experience, will have two or three more next year, and a solid core of NHL pros. The question is have they been paid to endure this foundering, and to tank next year while youth gets real NHL seasoning and the Wild vie for high lottery? Does this mediocre play condition fans for an exciting but futile season in '25, the end of the buyout era?

Bracket has done a extraordinary job of negotiating this unprecedented situation and there is no reason he doesn't help improve the team this off-season to avoid a full tank next year. This will be the NHL textbook case of rebuild on the fly. The team doesn't have the goaltending to make a run or they would've come in at 8 seed. That was the hope. Bring in all the black aces from near and far now, if permissable, and place vets on LTIR. Give them a taste and get the fan base excited for next year. 

Btw, one can't imagine the maturing taking place for a character guy like O'Rourke to take on the burden he has has now in Iowa. You can't teach the hardening of Irish metal taking place within him. Their may be better players but the org has no better leader coming up. F' the bregrudgers. 

[mnfaninnc]

56 minutes ago, raithis said:

Both I guess.  For some reason I only recall the one.

Justin Wiggins and Hein

[Will D. Ness]

1 hour ago, Willy the poor boy said:

There are times when it makes sense. I think with all the injuries this year and the lack of depth it would have made sense to try to add a top 5 guy with JEEK KK, Boldy, Rossi etc. etc. Bring up the young players give them legitimate opportunities. That wouldn't be a total tank, but it would have been a good year to add another high ender.

True, but IMO we might have been better with the young guys. (Hunt and Beckman vs Merrill and NoJo).  

Either way at least they would have gotten some development time.

[Mateo3xm]

On 3/18/2024 at 11:32 AM, Burnt Toast said:

. I think it’s reasonable to expect that the Wild will be contending for a SC in a big way starting in 2025. We very well could be entering into an unprecedented “Golden Era” of Wild hockey. 

You can't be serious? I like the enthusiasm but you seriously think the Wild have any chance of competing for a Stanley Cup in 2025? That's absolutely crazy.

this team is a mess defensively, shaky on goaltending and the core is past their prime. The new players don't typically really hit their peak till age 24-26. there is a big gap between the up and coming players and the core players

Flower is 40, Zucc is 37, Foligno is 33, Hartman is 30, Bogosian is 34, Brodin is 31, Johansson is 34, Freddy is 31, Merell is 30.

Statistically at age 29 players start to decline. Now obviously that doesn't mean everyone but that's a lot of holes to fill and not enough prospects ready to take their place.

 

[Mateo3xm]

22 hours ago, greg said:

I totally agree with this article.  We'll researched and thought out.  Again we are stuck with a few too many players that just go through the motions.  Bill Guerin continues to support that approach.

Completely agree