Article: Why Don't Other Teams Follow Guerin's Model?

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

As I understood it L.A. was the only place Fiala was willing to go so Guerin did not have much of a choice other than to deal with the Kings on Fiala or let him walk and get nothing. Yes and I think Guerin discovered gold in Faber somewhat by mistake as he never could have known how good he was going to be this year. Can Faber continue this for the long haul over the next few years or over his career remains to be seen. 

Same thing when we got Gustavsson for Talbot. We knew nothing about Gus as there wasn't much to know.  Both those trades make Guerin look like a master planner when in both cases there was a lot of luck and good fortune involved. 

It wasn't all luck. Part of it was good planning for his 25-26 season. Faber and Gustavsson were both young talents that were likely to be NHL contributors when Guerin was trying to get this team ready for contention.

He certainly couldn't have known either would contribute as good of a season as each has already with the Wild, but it wasn't purely luck. He could have done a lot of different deals, but chose the upside of the talented young players he could obtain in Faber and Gustavsson.

[IllicitFive]

57 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

At the time of that trade LA's farm system was loaded with potential talent. I highly doubt Brock Faber was the first person the Wild asked for, for an 80+ point young skater. I can say with a good amount of confidence LA would have given up other talent That may have looked more appealing at the time had they or anyone known what Faber could bring to the rink overall and especially in such quick fashion. If anyone had known, he would have been a 1'st rounder and not a 2'nd.

I think the 1st was the main thing in the trade, Brock was the sweetener, for a guy that the league knew wasn't going to be coming back. The same argument could be made that if people knew who and what Kap was going to be who he is now he wouldn't have been there in round 5. So by that argument, nobody has any idea and they are just tossing darts? LA also had a say in who to trade, but, unless I missed it, we probably will never know what was all discussed as options. But hey, better to be lucky than good?

[Willy the poor boy]

10 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

It wasn't all luck. Part of it was good planning for his 25-26 season. Faber and Gustavsson were both young talents that were likely to be NHL contributors when Guerin was trying to get this team ready for contention.

He certainly couldn't have known either would contribute as good of a season as each has already with the Wild, but it wasn't purely luck. He could have done a lot of different deals, but chose the upside of the talented young players he could obtain in Faber and Gustavsson.

I'll just add the BG is on record saying, on the Gus deal, he took the first fair offer that came along. That in my estimation was luck. Reading between the lines his temper got the best of him, not a stretch to assume that, and he just wanted T bot gone.

[Protec]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

If "ifs" and "but's" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a fun Christmas.  Benito "don't call me Musolini" Guerin get's no credit for 97 (Fletcher) or Boldy (Fenton).  Rossi? yes.  But all Rossi has proven is that he's a middle six C (thru 3/4 season).  Faber? yes.  Faber looks like we'll be retiring his jersey someday.

But before we crown BG's ass with a can't miss prospect pool let's see some of them make it to the big league as more than placeholders.  paging Lambos (1st round)?  paging Hunt (3rd rd)? paging O'Rourke (2nd rd)?

If one wants to join the IBGIT club K-Nut has to arrive and take a spot in top 9 immediately.  he's old enough and has enough seasoning in KHL to contribute upon arrival.  Too soon to put down the gauntlet on Yurov, Ohgren, Stramel, Wallstedt (a consensus can't miss prospect), Peart, Bankier, Haight, Lorenz but clock is ticking on these names too.  Performance has to meet the hype, or you're just another member in the Wild marketing dept.

Guerin trimmed the fat early on with some lesser trades, but picked up Middleton and other playoff rentals for little to no cost future-wise. His Talbot signing amongst other contracts like Ek, Spurgeon, Boldy, and Hartman all looked really good. Had Greenway sign a reasonable/tradable contract and moved him when the time came. I'm not super happy about the big picture results yet. Guerin did turn things around from where the Wild were, which was nearing Ottawa/Buffalo type dysfunction then. The Wild became winners again and overachieved. Now they've had one sideways season while under cap-constraints and they're still pretty good many nights. Their prospects are pretty okay and they have core pieces locked up for the most part. I don't love all the draft picks, there's some questions there for me but I also don't care if Guerin said mean things to somebody. The Wild are pretty decent and look okay going forward. Yurov will be with the Wild soon enough, one must wait til the season ends before expecting Yurov/Guerin to have talks. The kid is chasing a record and trying to win in the KHL playoffs...

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, Protec said:

but I also don't care if Guerin said mean things to somebody.

But wasn't it a pretty big deal to you when Fenton was doing it? It was to many fans, but with BG it's nothing?

[Willy the poor boy]

2 hours ago, IllicitFive said:

I think the 1st was the main thing in the trade, Brock was the sweetener, for a guy that the league knew wasn't going to be coming back. The same argument could be made that if people knew who and what Kap was going to be who he is now he wouldn't have been there in round 5. So by that argument, nobody has any idea and they are just tossing darts? LA also had a say in who to trade, but, unless I missed it, we probably will never know what was all discussed as options. But hey, better to be lucky than good?

Yes, the 1'st was the main thing. Yes, The same goes for Kap, but it seemed your point was that BG knew what he was doing in getting Faber. I doubt he knew how that would turn out. LA certainly didn't or he wouldn't be in a Wild uni.

[Sviginak]

Some of the negative fandom from the Athletic must be moving to the Wilderness through osmosis. Capice?

 

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Sviginak said:

Some of the negative fandom from the Athletic must be moving to the Wilderness through osmosis. Capice?

 

Fuggetaboutit

[B1GKappa97]

 

16 hours ago, Protec said:

Guerin trimmed the fat early on with some lesser trades, but picked up Middleton and other playoff rentals for little to no cost future-wise. His Talbot signing amongst other contracts like Ek, Spurgeon, Boldy, and Hartman all looked really good. Had Greenway sign a reasonable/tradable contract and moved him when the time came. I'm not super happy about the big picture results yet. Guerin did turn things around from where the Wild were, which was nearing Ottawa/Buffalo type dysfunction then. The Wild became winners again and overachieved. Now they've had one sideways season while under cap-constraints and they're still pretty good many nights. Their prospects are pretty okay and they have core pieces locked up for the most part. I don't love all the draft picks, there's some questions there for me but I also don't care if Guerin said mean things to somebody. The Wild are pretty decent and look okay going forward. Yurov will be with the Wild soon enough, one must wait til the season ends before expecting Yurov/Guerin to have talks. The kid is chasing a record and trying to win in the KHL playoffs...

Yeah seems like we've got a pretty stellar top-line now and the 2nd line should be easy to complete once Yurov arrives, whether that's next season or the one after. They can replace Zuccy with their cap-space in '26-'27 if Khusnutdinov or Heidt/Oghren aren't ready for the top-6 yet. They've got a solid 3rd line locked down with Hartman/Gaudreau/Foligno. 4th liners are a dime a dozen and Billy's got no problems finding contributors there. 

On the blue-line, we've got Faber/Middsy/Spurgy/Brodin and likely Chisholm as future top-4 quality defensemen. Only question is who the 6th guy is, whether that's a future vet like Bogo or a guy from the AHL like Lambos or Hunt step up their game. 

And honestly they've got a great shot to fill that 6th D or top-6 forward opening with their draft pick this year. Especially if they end up in the top-10. 

In net we've got Gus and soon to be Wallstedt, who hopefully improves from what we saw against Dallas to give us a legit 1-2 punch in net. 

For all the whining about the contract extensions Guerin gave out, the future of the roster still looks pretty damn bright! 

Edited February 28 by B1GKappa97

[jabuyer]

22 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I don't think we've even touched the surface on "Guerin's" model. Included in this model has to be protecting the prospects, reloading on the fly, and not giving up your top picks in trades. Instead, we're going into the weeds on parting ways with the cap guy, when we don't even really know what happened.

After the Fenton era, I think Leipold was clear about what he wanted: He wanted a playoff team while reloading for a contention run. Guerin came up with a plan to get this done, but it was going to take longer than 3 years. 

He has drafted and marinated his prospects, building a consistently high draft pool, while not trading them out and not bringing them up too early. He started with best players available with a concentration in building from the back out. Last offseason, he ended it by going strong down the middle with size.

Because Leipold demanded playoff invitations, Guerin was forced to draft past 16, and he fielded teams that overperformed into the 20s. He acquired 2 extra 1sts, and a couple of extra 2nds along the way. But, drafting from that point, it was likely that each prospect would take 5 years to develop. He got lucky with the Covid year, as it truly scrambled the drafts and was able to pick up players who were better, later. Will they all pan out? Hopefully but that is an incomplete at this point of the grade. 

Then, to address a contingency plan, well, simply put, you do not have the luxury of a contingency plan when you're down $15m in cap space. For it to work, you've got to hit on health luck, your decisions are decent, and players that punch above their cap numbers. If any of these falters, you will have problems (like this year). Could Guerin have waited to resign the guys? Yes. Should he have? Yes. Cost certainty wasn't that big of a question. Should length have been shorter? Yes on Zuccarello, about right on Hartman, yes by a year on Foligno. Gaudreau's contract was a non-factor, and Johansson was too. 

Making plans for when to fill the placeholders spot with prospects is really the key to all of this. It is very hard to time this out. For instance, would Yurov be ready at 20, 21 or 22? How long would Lambos take to develop? How long would The Wall? Where the mistake may have come in was the designations attached to the contracts, but, perhaps that was necessary to keep the cap numbers down? With a rising cap, market prices are also expected to rise, and that doesn't give an exemption for a penalized team. 

Also, the 3 extended players from the fall are probably guys who will pass on the torch to the up and coming, and teach them how to play. While Kaprizov speaks Russian, Zuccarello is probably a better mentor. Foligno will be a mentor for Stramel and Kumpulainen, Hartman is just plain hard to play against. But, having those guys who want to be here and pass on the culture is important, and they were identified as such. 

Let's just say that they regress. Let's pretend that they make up a 4th line late in their extensions. You've got guys who are very talented on ELCs or bridges up in the lineup. Those 4th line guys will be valuable, likely at playoff time. 

While things may look a little chaotic around the transition time, that's to be expected. Change many times brings chaos, and can look messy. My hope is that Guerin will know the right time to bring in the newbies. And, it would be nice if the newbies have seasons like Rossi's now, or Faber's now.

I agree we should wait and see with Guerin.  He has had some pretty average teams (with one confirmed superstar) look pretty good in the regular season.  He's had the excuse of the buyouts, although that is a problem he created for himself. 

So if once he gets out from under that, successfully signs 97 long-term and gets to the Conference championship, I'm thinking wait and see on whether anyone wants to emulate him.  I'd say by 2029 we have something or move on.

[mnfaninnc]

21 hours ago, KaprizovKhusnutdinovYurov said:

Looking at the numbers, if they had been traded instead of bought out after the 2020-21 season, the number is actually $20.153 million, not $19.692 million.

Are we assuming that we had kept Parise, or that we had traded him? That assumption factors in completely to the cap recapture. I assumed we had kept him, in which case the recapture was ticking down every year. If we had traded him, like Weber was, the signing team would have had something like what is listed above. But, as was later clarified in the CBA, no yearly total could have gone higher than the player's original cap hit. 

[Pewterschmidt]

6 minutes ago, jabuyer said:

him.  I'd say by 2029 we have something or move on.

I’d say Benito’s genius is convincing OCL to give him a 10 year wait and see runway to evaluate BG’s performance.  Starting with the buyouts.   Not accusing BG of doing anything wrong.  Just jealous I guess.  Who gets that much runway at work?   This fan requires a high top 6 success rates and post season success starting with K nut’s arrival. 

[mnfaninnc]

20 hours ago, IllicitFive said:

There are peoples whos job is to know and be informed, while there is luck involved if they just fall off a cliff, or get injured, or over preform I don't think it is fair to chalk up everything to luck, unless you mean "Luck is when skill meets opportunity".  Perhaps I am ignorant in thinking that BG and team have some sort of idea of what they are doing and not just lucky.

I think we may have some inside information on this. Guerin, who admittedly is not a goalie guy, was around the room when the Pens drafted Goose2. So, he had some familiarity with the player. Yes there's luck, but this falls into the category of educated guess.

[mnfaninnc]

19 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Gus was definitely just luck. I don't know that anyone could've predicted he'd have had the season he did last year. I am pretty sure Geurin even admitted that he was not expecting that when he made the trade. He likely was just expecting more of a backup goalie to spell MAF, not to land an upgraded goalie. Though, to be fair to Gus, he did post up eerily similar numbers in the SHL as Wallstedt, who we'd just drafted, did. 

B1G, if you go back to look at my comments at the time, probably now permanently erased in the Vox black hole, I was very optimistic that we had gotten Goose2, I thought he would rebound and was in a poor situation in Ottawa, and that he did have similar stats to The Wall in the SHL. Obviously, Guerin had more information than I did in a quick little statistical search. 

Yes, some luck was involved, and Goose2 got on quite a roll. Goalies can be streaky and confidence plays a huge factor. The main thing that happened here, I believe, is that Goose2 felt like he was wanted. Our goalie coach was able to fix his tendency to play deep in the net, probably something he still needs to be reminded of. 

It also was said/admitted by Goose2 that before the trade, he thought he was headed back to Sweden after his contract expired with Ottawa. This was not a goalie in a confident frame of mind when we got him. But, he quickly transformed after the 1st month of transition. He still has some issues, but, he is a solid keeper.

This was far more than just luck!

[mnfaninnc]

18 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

I'll just add the BG is on record saying, on the Gus deal, he took the first fair offer that came along. That in my estimation was luck. Reading between the lines his temper got the best of him, not a stretch to assume that, and he just wanted T bot gone.

This kind of makes you wonder how many unfair offers were presented? One would think that if it was a temper thing, he might have taken one of the unfair ones to get Talbot off his plate?

[mnfaninnc]

16 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

But wasn't it a pretty big deal to you when Fenton was doing it? It was to many fans, but with BG it's nothing?

I don't think both are comparable. Fenton's stuff was outlandish and trading guys without checking with scouts and stuff was not the way to go. Morale was in the pits. I don't see the same thing with Guerin on this. Yes, he can be a bear when losing, but he also doesn't think he's always the smartest guy in the room either. Is he competitive, yes! He wears that on his sleeve! But I'd bet morale is far better under Guerin than under Fenton.

[mnfaninnc]

26 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I’d say Benito’s genius is convincing OCL to give him a 10 year wait and see runway to evaluate BG’s performance.  Starting with the buyouts.   Not accusing BG of doing anything wrong.  Just jealous I guess.  Who gets that much runway at work?   This fan requires a high top 6 success rates and post season success starting with K nut’s arrival. 

A GM's runway needs to be lengthy in this sport. 

1. stability is a key to success
2. unless you are drafting 3 straight year in the top 10, you're not seeing your fruit for the 1st 5 years
3. A GM that has an owner's patience can put forth a good longterm plan
4. With a terrible hand, Guerin has accomplished the owner's goal of making it to the playoffs each year

The trajectory is up, even though it's not sky rocketing, it is headed in the improvement category, even with this year. He has kept the early round picks, not traded away the prospects and is building and developing a very good organization. If he left now, the organization would be in better shape than when he arrived.

[Willy the poor boy]

28 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I don't think both are comparable. Fenton's stuff was outlandish and trading guys without checking with scouts and stuff was not the way to go. Morale was in the pits. I don't see the same thing with Guerin on this. Yes, he can be a bear when losing, but he also doesn't think he's always the smartest guy in the room either. Is he competitive, yes! He wears that on his sleeve! But I'd bet morale is far better under Guerin than under Fenton.

Maybe, but I'm not quite so sure on that. Players spoke out about the Wild sitting T Bot in the Blues series. The two guys the Wild lost because the of the investigation were by all accounts well liked and respected by the players and staff and one was pretty well linked to the players on an almost daily basis.

That whole thing has been under wraps about as much as it could be. I don't believe BG ever spoke about it publicly or has ever even been asked about it by reporters. I haven't seen any evidence either way that the players weren't effected by it. 

[Willy the poor boy]

15 hours ago, Sviginak said:

Some of the negative fandom from the Athletic must be moving to the Wilderness through osmosis. Capice?

 

It's always been here. The Hartman hate and now Freddie hate, hell some were starting to go after KK early in the season. Deano had been under attack for all of his time here. Everything bad was Deano, everything good was BG and now that Deanos gone and they can't blame him they lash out at any Guerin derision. 

[Pewterschmidt]

54 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

He has kept the early round picks, not traded away the prospects

I have trouble giving Guerin a bunch of credit for this.  This is in the GM handbook under the chapter: “Don’t shoot yourself in the foot”

Because we watched Fletcher run the org so poorly (and again in PHI) simply speaks to how inept Fletcher was

Edited February 28 by Pewterschmidt

[raithis]

On 2/27/2024 at 11:24 AM, mnfaninnc said:

But, the other thing to consider was the protections of the Seattle expansion draft, so we would have had to keep Parise and let some else be exposed. Does Seattle still take Soucy?

No.  Because if Suter and Parise were still on the team, the additional odd men out that wouldn't have been protected would have been two players out of Eriksson Ek, Fiala, and Dumba because of who we would have been forced to protect (unless one or both would have waived that clause).

The buy-outs keep coming up, but people don't think about the consequences of what we would have likely lost.  Losing either Eriksson Ek or Fiala at that time wouldn't have us anywhere near where we are now.

Simply put, we'd be worse off and our future would be less bright.  The buy-outs were for the better.

 

[Protec]

6 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I have trouble giving Guerin a bunch of credit for this.  This is in the GM handbook under the chapter: “Don’t shoot yourself in the foot”

Because we watched Fletcher run the org so poorly (and again in PHI) simply speaks to how inept Fletcher was

Classic argument that Fletcher/Fenton is so bad, the next guy appears to be a genius. That's exactly the objective I hoped the Wild would accomplish. 

In other words, Guerin could be just another run of the mill GM. I don't reject that idea entirely, but is it realistic to expect Guerin as a new GM to show up and bat 1000%, taking the Wild straight to a Cup? Three coaches and a bunch of roster changes later, the Wild are nowhere near as aimless and sad as in 2018 or 2019 when Rask had years left on his 4M hit and Boldy was had like 6 points at BC. 

I think the criticism is acceptable but Guerin has not been bad for MN. Given who was up for the job then, Guerin or Fitzgerald would have been okay. They've both been okay, and YES it's way better than XGMCF or Doofy himself which is totally fine by me.

"Did you see that, it was like a Norske-Lizard out there" says Fenton...

[mnfaninnc]

21 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

That whole thing has been under wraps about as much as it could be. I don't believe BG ever spoke about it publicly or has ever even been asked about it by reporters. I haven't seen any evidence either way that the players weren't effected by it. 

Wouldn't this be covered in an NDA which the guy probably had to sign to get his severance? They don't need to talk about it, at this time, it's buried in the HR archives, probably under "sealed documents."

[mnfaninnc]

21 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Because we watched Fletcher run the org so poorly (and again in PHI) simply speaks to how inept Fletcher was

Yet, when Fletcher left, the organization was better off than when he took over. Fenton left having blown it up and no idea if Boldy would be Boldy. While that chapter is a good one, how many GMs hedge their bets and "have to have" certain guys?

I would suggest that Guerin has stayed pretty disciplined here and realized what phase of building he is in. The "Fill The Cupboards, Developmental" stage is nearing its end. Fletcher's issue was he jumped the gun a bit because with our owner, after the Parise/Suter signings, he felt like we had to make the playoffs. 

What might have happened had Fletcher resisted and concluded we're almost there, and had Coyle, Zucker, Granlund, Haula remain in Iowa just a bit longer? Would we have figured out who Coyle really was? Could Dumba have used a little more time in the A? 

I get that sometimes opportunity comes knocking and you have to alter your plans, but couldn't Parise/Suter have waited one more year? For this, I believe, Guerin does deserve credit. People pick on him moving Rossi back down, he had to, Rossi wasn't ready to compete. Beckman, this year, was a victim of circumstance where he got injured at the wrong time. And still, Guerin keeps marinating the kids, allowing them the opportunity to get stronger and better. Why wouldn't he deserve credit for this?

[Willy the poor boy]

44 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Wouldn't this be covered in an NDA which the guy probably had to sign to get his severance? They don't need to talk about it, at this time, it's buried in the HR archives, probably under "sealed documents."

BG should have addressed it at least somewhat. is what I'm saying. Ya, I doubt the the two departing guys could say anything about it, which would tell me  the team team wants to sweep it under the rug and move on from an embarrassing situation especially since the last GM was let go for the same thing.