Article: Why Don't Other Teams Follow Guerin's Model?

[Tom Schreier]

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[MNCountryLife]

Guerin was lucky with Faber.  Fiala was out the door and Guerin was going to lose Fiala no matter what.  He managed a trade that got him a potential defender.  Nobody could have guessed that not only would Faber be NHL ready straight from the U but the rookie would perform at a level few rookies could meet ...much less thrive at as Faber has done.  

[Citizen Strife]

I would like to know what the cap hit penalty would have been on Parise, because he has stated (whether true or not), his run with Avs is his last.  Suter sticking around is one thing, but Guerin still would have the Sword of Damocles crushing him now if Parise wasn't bought out.  While I don't know if it would be $38-40m if both bailed, but it would be something crazy.

Besides, using Faber over Dumba right now seems like the slam dunk of the century.

[mnfaninnc]

I don't think we've even touched the surface on "Guerin's" model. Included in this model has to be protecting the prospects, reloading on the fly, and not giving up your top picks in trades. Instead, we're going into the weeds on parting ways with the cap guy, when we don't even really know what happened.

After the Fenton era, I think Leipold was clear about what he wanted: He wanted a playoff team while reloading for a contention run. Guerin came up with a plan to get this done, but it was going to take longer than 3 years. 

He has drafted and marinated his prospects, building a consistently high draft pool, while not trading them out and not bringing them up too early. He started with best players available with a concentration in building from the back out. Last offseason, he ended it by going strong down the middle with size.

Because Leipold demanded playoff invitations, Guerin was forced to draft past 16, and he fielded teams that overperformed into the 20s. He acquired 2 extra 1sts, and a couple of extra 2nds along the way. But, drafting from that point, it was likely that each prospect would take 5 years to develop. He got lucky with the Covid year, as it truly scrambled the drafts and was able to pick up players who were better, later. Will they all pan out? Hopefully but that is an incomplete at this point of the grade. 

Then, to address a contingency plan, well, simply put, you do not have the luxury of a contingency plan when you're down $15m in cap space. For it to work, you've got to hit on health luck, your decisions are decent, and players that punch above their cap numbers. If any of these falters, you will have problems (like this year). Could Guerin have waited to resign the guys? Yes. Should he have? Yes. Cost certainty wasn't that big of a question. Should length have been shorter? Yes on Zuccarello, about right on Hartman, yes by a year on Foligno. Gaudreau's contract was a non-factor, and Johansson was too. 

Making plans for when to fill the placeholders spot with prospects is really the key to all of this. It is very hard to time this out. For instance, would Yurov be ready at 20, 21 or 22? How long would Lambos take to develop? How long would The Wall? Where the mistake may have come in was the designations attached to the contracts, but, perhaps that was necessary to keep the cap numbers down? With a rising cap, market prices are also expected to rise, and that doesn't give an exemption for a penalized team. 

Also, the 3 extended players from the fall are probably guys who will pass on the torch to the up and coming, and teach them how to play. While Kaprizov speaks Russian, Zuccarello is probably a better mentor. Foligno will be a mentor for Stramel and Kumpulainen, Hartman is just plain hard to play against. But, having those guys who want to be here and pass on the culture is important, and they were identified as such. 

Let's just say that they regress. Let's pretend that they make up a 4th line late in their extensions. You've got guys who are very talented on ELCs or bridges up in the lineup. Those 4th line guys will be valuable, likely at playoff time. 

While things may look a little chaotic around the transition time, that's to be expected. Change many times brings chaos, and can look messy. My hope is that Guerin will know the right time to bring in the newbies. And, it would be nice if the newbies have seasons like Rossi's now, or Faber's now.

[mnfaninnc]

21 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I would like to know what the cap hit penalty would have been on Parise, because he has stated (whether true or not), his run with Avs is his last.  Suter sticking around is one thing, but Guerin still would have the Sword of Damocles crushing him now if Parise wasn't bought out.  While I don't know if it would be $38-40m if both bailed, but it would be something crazy.

Parise's cap hit would have continued to be $7.5m through next season. However, in '21-22, it was starting to come down. He then had 3 seasons to balance out the penalties with $2m, 1m, 1m. So, let's say we would have kept him through this year, our penalty would have been $6.5m probably split over 2 years, maybe less, like 2/3rds of that. 

But, the other thing to consider was the protections of the Seattle expansion draft, so we would have had to keep Parise and let some else be exposed. Does Seattle still take Soucy?

I think Suter was more let go for basic attitude. Also, fwiw, the Stars played the Canes last Saturday, and Svechnikov threw a big hit on Suter in the corner. It was nice someone was willing to do it.

[Citizen Strife]

I was more talking about the Cap Recapture Penalty thing.  Would that have affected things at all if he were traded as opposed to simply sitting on the team collecting dust?  They bought them out to clear money for Kaprizov's contract.  Cutting Fiala gave them Boldy money, Faber, and Ohgren...so there's more to this than just, "Meh, play us or don't, you jerk" and hurt feelings.

[B1GKappa97]

39 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Guerin was lucky with Faber.  Fiala was out the door and Guerin was going to lose Fiala no matter what.  He managed a trade that got him a potential defender.  Nobody could have guessed that not only would Faber be NHL ready straight from the U but the rookie would perform at a level few rookies could meet ...much less thrive at as Faber has done.  

You don't think he evaluated all the offers that were on the table and made the best one that made sense for the team in the short- and long-term? I think its disingenuous to say he merely got lucky with Faber. That was clearly a calculated decision. I doubt the Kings were the first, or only, team to make an offer on Kevin Fiala. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

4 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

You don't think he evaluated all the offers that were on the table and made the best one that made sense for the team in the short- and long-term? I think its disingenuous to say he merely got lucky with Faber. That was clearly a calculated decision. I doubt the Kings were the first, or only, team to make an offer on Kevin Fiala. 

That could be, but I also believe that LA is where Fiala wanted to go. Faber was easy to scout being in our own backyard. But, I'll bet other teams also wanted Fiala like you said. 

[B1GKappa97]

Just now, mnfaninnc said:

That could be, but I also believe that LA is where Fiala wanted to go. Faber was easy to scout being in our own backyard. But, I'll bet other teams also wanted Fiala like you said. 

The rare win-win(win)

[viper3119]

55 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I would like to know what the cap hit penalty would have been on Parise, because he has stated (whether true or not), his run with Avs is his last. 

If he plays until 2023-24 and retires with one year left on his deal, the full $19.6 million would be due over one year

 

 Per this old article. 

 

 

[MacGyver]

Fiala has dropped well below a point per game player over the last few weeks but that entire team is on the struggle train right now. Still can't believe they went all in on PLD.  As I understood it L.A. was the only place Fiala was willing to go so Guerin did not have much of a choice other than to deal with the Kings on Fiala or let him walk and get nothing. Yes and I think Guerin discovered gold in Faber somewhat by mistake as he never could have known how good he was going to be this year. Can Faber continue this for the long haul over the next few years or over his career remains to be seen. 

Same thing when we got Gustavsson for Talbot. We knew nothing about Gus as there wasn't much to know.  Both those trades make Guerin look like a master planner when in both cases there was a lot of luck and good fortune involved. 

Edited February 27 by MacGyver

[KaprizovKhusnutdinovYurov]

28 minutes ago, viper3119 said:

If he plays until 2023-24 and retires with one year left on his deal, the full $19.6 million would be due over one year

 

 Per this old article. 

 

 

This is incorrect; per the updated CBA, the recapture penalty cannot exceed the original cap hit. So, the $19.6 million would have been split into three years - $7.5 the first two, followed by the remainder in the third year. See Duncan Keith's recapture as an example. 

[KaprizovKhusnutdinovYurov]

Looking at the numbers, if they had been traded instead of bought out after the 2020-21 season, the number is actually $20.153 million, not $19.692 million.

[MNCountryLife]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

You don't think he evaluated all the offers that were on the table and made the best one that made sense for the team in the short- and long-term? I think its disingenuous to say he merely got lucky with Faber. That was clearly a calculated decision. I doubt the Kings were the first, or only, team to make an offer on Kevin Fiala. 

No doubt, I'm sure he did his evaluation and liked what he saw.  Based on that evaluation ... did Guerin foresee that Faber would be this good and eating these kinds of minutes.. .in all situations....if Guerin did... WOW.  My bet is that Faber is performing better than Guerin was even hoping for....

[IllicitFive]

22 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

Same thing when we got Gustavsson for Talbot. We knew nothing about Gus as there wasn't much to know.  Both those trades make Guerin look like a master planner when in both cases there was a lot of luck and good fortune involved. 

Just because we don't know much if anything that doesn't mean GMBG and the wild as whole don't know anything.  I will admit that yes there is some luck but a lot? I don't know about that. There are peoples whos job is to know and be informed, while there is luck involved if they just fall off a cliff, or get injured, or over preform I don't think it is fair to chalk up everything to luck, unless you mean "Luck is when skill meets opportunity".  Perhaps I am ignorant in thinking that BG and team have some sort of idea of what they are doing and not just lucky. Besides NoJo signing I am hard pressed to find many moves that are downright poor.

[FredJohnson]

2 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

Nobody could have guessed that not only would Faber be NHL ready straight from the U

Maybe our scouts did? (Russo said on his podcast last year that he heard Faber would join the big club straight off Gopher ice.)

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

You don't think he evaluated all the offers that were on the table and made the best one that made sense for the team in the short- and long-term? I think its disingenuous to say he merely got lucky with Faber. That was clearly a calculated decision. I doubt the Kings were the first, or only, team to make an offer on Kevin Fiala. 

 

He made that trade quickly he could have leveraged it way better. And he made the trade pretty soon after he publicly downplayed Fiala's success over the last season. But like MnFan said below Fiala very well could have stated he wanted to play in La La Land... 

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

Simple answer; there is no track record of Guerin's "Method" winning anything. He has done well in trading and cost certainty in keeping a competitive team on the board in cap hell but that doesn't necessarily translate into ultimate success. NHL is a copycat league, the moment he puts a cup or at the very least and extended run together the league will take notice and try to recreate that strategy. Until this Wild team can do that, the Guerin method has zero weight. It is every team's goal to win the cup, not just stay competitive with cap hit.

[Eddy]

Why don’t other teams follow BG’s model??? Hmmm that’s a great question. 
 

Well to start the NHL didn’t screw any other teams with those cap penalties only us 🤷‍♂️….

guess your article was written to rip on BG but I think you failed to look at the big picture so let’s start…how good have the Wild been under BG. Well this year we’ve had an unprecedented amount of injuries while being in cap hell and still we are fighting for the playoffs. The previous 2 seasons we were amongst the top teams in the NHL. Last season if injuries don’t takeout EK and Kap we may have been talking about a deep run(incase you were unaware that is 2 of our top 3 players). I mean that is success whether you want to say it’s Cup or nothing or not. Anytime you’re considered a top team points wise your in that conversation. 
So being that good we must have a dried up prospect pool….i mean BG was handed a mess with a depleted prospect pool….wait the answer there is no as well😤. How can that be we have a Calder winner in kap. Then boldy was in the conversation for it although he only played a handful of games. And this year Rossi and Faber are in the conversation again with a 3 way race. Hmmm that seems odd. Guess we were lucky? Wait your telling me Yurov is setting records in the KHL, MK is coming from the KHL and looks very promising, and Reilly is also tops in his league 😳 damn!!!! I would love someone to breakdown this prospect pool cause I am saying to be become elite you need to draft your team and build within BG and Judd have done just that! If you don’t understand why teams don’t follow this model I’d say not many draft this well or make the correct trades. This signing veterans argument has us in trouble is tiresome and overplayed its hand. Freddys 2 mil a year being flexible up and down the lineup is not a bad signing, zuc is a steal, Hartman has overplayed his first contract x5 sec is top be determined, although you are right about MJ he’s been rough this year but again he’s not making crap and it’s 2 years so 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, IllicitFive said:

Just because we don't know much if anything that doesn't mean GMBG and the wild as whole don't know anything.  I will admit that yes there is some luck but a lot? I don't know about that. There are peoples whos job is to know and be informed, while there is luck involved if they just fall off a cliff, or get injured, or over preform I don't think it is fair to chalk up everything to luck, unless you mean "Luck is when skill meets opportunity".  Perhaps I am ignorant in thinking that BG and team have some sort of idea of what they are doing and not just lucky. Besides NoJo signing I am hard pressed to find many moves that are downright poor.

At the time of that trade LA's farm system was loaded with potential talent. I highly doubt Brock Faber was the first person the Wild asked for, for an 80+ point young skater. I can say with a good amount of confidence LA would have given up other talent That may have looked more appealing at the time had they or anyone known what Faber could bring to the rink overall and especially in such quick fashion. If anyone had known, he would have been a 1'st rounder and not a 2'nd.

Edited February 27 by Willy the poor boy

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

Maybe our scouts did? (Russo said on his podcast last year that he heard Faber would join the big club straight off Gopher ice.)

That's likely because the rosters were expanded. I'm sure they wanted to see how he handled it. I don't recall what the concensus was, but I'd be surprised if the Wild thought he was just gonna stay at the NHL level without some seasoning in the AHL.

Edited February 27 by Willy the poor boy

[Paul Bunyan is Real]

I find it hilarious that all the Guerin haters are so intent on ripping him that every good deal he makes is "lucky." The Fiala deal w LA started w and ended w Faber being the key piece. LA's top prospect was Brandt Clarke and he was off limits. Also, he had no choice but LA. Fiala's wife wanted the coast and sunshine. Florida and Tampa were out bc they had no cap room and Geurin couldn't take back salary. 

Meanwhile, calling the Gustavsson trade pure luck is just plain ignorance. Pittsburgh drafted Gustavsson w the 55th pick in the 2016 draft when Guerin was Asst. GM. Guerin knew Ottawa was just a bad situation as Ottawa was clueless defensively. 

But yeah, it's all just luck. Gimme a break.

[Pewterschmidt]

37 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Why don’t other teams follow BG’s model??? Hmmm that’s a great question. 
 

Well to start the NHL didn’t screw any other teams with those cap penalties only us 🤷‍♂️….

guess your article was written to rip on BG but I think you failed to look at the big picture so let’s start…how good have the Wild been under BG. Well this year we’ve had an unprecedented amount of injuries while being in cap hell and still we are fighting for the playoffs. The previous 2 seasons we were amongst the top teams in the NHL. Last season if injuries don’t takeout EK and Kap we may have been talking about a deep run(incase you were unaware that is 2 of our top 3 players). I mean that is success whether you want to say it’s Cup or nothing or not. Anytime you’re considered a top team points wise your in that conversation. 
So being that good we must have a dried up prospect pool….i mean BG was handed a mess with a depleted prospect pool….wait the answer there is no as well😤. How can that be we have a Calder winner in kap. Then boldy was in the conversation for it although he only played a handful of games. And this year Rossi and Faber are in the conversation again with a 3 way race. Hmmm that seems odd. Guess we were lucky? Wait your telling me Yurov is setting records in the KHL, MK is coming from the KHL and looks very promising, and Reilly is also tops in his league 😳 damn!!!! I would love someone to breakdown this prospect pool cause I am saying to be become elite you need to draft your team and build within BG and Judd have done just that! If you don’t understand why teams don’t follow this model I’d say not many draft this well or make the correct trades. This signing veterans argument has us in trouble is tiresome and overplayed its hand. Freddys 2 mil a year being flexible up and down the lineup is not a bad signing, zuc is a steal, Hartman has overplayed his first contract x5 sec is top be determined, although you are right about MJ he’s been rough this year but again he’s not making crap and it’s 2 years so 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

If "ifs" and "but's" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a fun Christmas.  Benito "don't call me Musolini" Guerin get's no credit for 97 (Fletcher) or Boldy (Fenton).  Rossi? yes.  But all Rossi has proven is that he's a middle six C (thru 3/4 season).  Faber? yes.  Faber looks like we'll be retiring his jersey someday.

But before we crown BG's ass with a can't miss prospect pool let's see some of them make it to the big league as more than placeholders.  paging Lambos (1st round)?  paging Hunt (3rd rd)? paging O'Rourke (2nd rd)?

If one wants to join the IBGIT club K-Nut has to arrive and take a spot in top 9 immediately.  he's old enough and has enough seasoning in KHL to contribute upon arrival.  Too soon to put down the gauntlet on Yurov, Ohgren, Stramel, Wallstedt (a consensus can't miss prospect), Peart, Bankier, Haight, Lorenz but clock is ticking on these names too.  Performance has to meet the hype, or you're just another member in the Wild marketing dept.

[MrCheatachu]

1 hour ago, KaprizovKhusnutdinovYurov said:

This is incorrect; per the updated CBA, the recapture penalty cannot exceed the original cap hit. So, the $19.6 million would have been split into three years - $7.5 the first two, followed by the remainder in the third year. See Duncan Keith's recapture as an example. 

The argument for the buyout was that it would isolate the club from the 'unknown' of the player retiring.  For example if the Parise/Ladd deal went through and then the Wild signed Fiala long term, and Parise retired this year the wild would be 'surprised' and have to fit the $7.5M dead cap into space that was already allocated which would have forced them to sell players, likely well under value as the rest of the league wouldn't be in a rush to bail them out.

Hard to plan for the future when you potentially have $15M penalties heading your way compared to knowing when the deadcap would hit.

Kinda like how you see companies shares go up after settlements are announced.  There is value in having control in your future, even if you have to eat a turd sandwich. 

[B1GKappa97]

2 hours ago, MacGyver said:

Fiala has dropped well below a point per game player over the last few weeks but that entire team is on the struggle train right now. Still can't believe they went all in on PLD.  As I understood it L.A. was the only place Fiala was willing to go so Guerin did not have much of a choice other than to deal with the Kings on Fiala or let him walk and get nothing. Yes and I think Guerin discovered gold in Faber somewhat by mistake as he never could have known how good he was going to be this year. Can Faber continue this for the long haul over the next few years or over his career remains to be seen. 

Same thing when we got Gustavsson for Talbot. We knew nothing about Gus as there wasn't much to know.  Both those trades make Guerin look like a master planner when in both cases there was a lot of luck and good fortune involved. 

Gus was definitely just luck. I don't know that anyone could've predicted he'd have had the season he did last year. I am pretty sure Geurin even admitted that he was not expecting that when he made the trade. He likely was just expecting more of a backup goalie to spell MAF, not to land an upgraded goalie. Though, to be fair to Gus, he did post up eerily similar numbers in the SHL as Wallstedt, who we'd just drafted, did. 

Faber I think was a targeted prospect. I doubt the GM just drew his name out of a hat. I'd be shocked if Geurin expected him to be a minute-munching top-pairing quality defenseman in year 1 (because who does that?) but I'm sure he had him projected to be a top-4 guy and future Matt Dumba replacement.

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

No doubt, I'm sure he did his evaluation and liked what he saw.  Based on that evaluation ... did Guerin foresee that Faber would be this good and eating these kinds of minutes.. .in all situations....if Guerin did... WOW.  My bet is that Faber is performing better than Guerin was even hoping for....

For sure he is. I don't think that means he just got lucky to get him in the trade. I would imagine LA had a list of prospects they were willing to part with and he wisely took Faber, who was not even considered a top-5 prospect for the Kings at that time.