Article: Should Macklin Celebrini Root For the Wild To Tank?

[Tony Abbott]

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[Imyourhuckleberry]

Wild would have at least a 5% chance as long as they remain one of the worst 9 teams in standing points, so they could pass a few teams and still have a shot at Celebrini--just a 2.5% difference from their current position. Could be ideal for both him and the Wild if it were to work out that the Wild win the lottery.

[viper3119]

If we some how end up with Macklin that would be insane in 2 years with Khus, Yurov, and the rest of our pipeline of prospects all starting to come in at the same time.  Might create a huge log jam though for our prospects with all the no trade and nmc that the wild have given out recently.

[Citizen Strife]

Bettman would move heaven and earth to ensure that won't happen.  I'm surprised he hasn't forced the Wild to move to New Mexico or some shit.

[mnfaninnc]

Karma says that paying the price for cap penalties that were unearned (I say this because the rules completely screwed the team to not grandfather the contracts in like is tradition in everything) that we are due for a couple of breaks in the draft order. Was getting #9 in Rossi's year one of them? Probably. 

Sometimes, for real good borderline elite prospects, luck of where they end up is what makes or breaks their career. I'm not from the school that a draft pick starts rooting for a team to tank, but dreaming of a perfect place to go might include coming to the Wild where he could really help out. 

But, from our standpoint, is it Celebrini we are dreaming of, or would Saliyev or Lindstrom be better fits for our team? That's a tough call for me as I have not had eyes on Celebrini. I would point out, though, that at the WJCs, Canada, his team, did not make it to a medal game. And, when it comes to that series, for years the Russians have not been allowed to attend. 

To me, I would think that the 4-6 slots would be the ones that would help our team the most. And, we're in that window right now.

[Will D. Ness]

9 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

To me, I would think that the 4-6 slots would be the ones that would help our team the most. And, we're in that window right now.

Go big or go home.  If we are going to embrace a pipe dream for half of a year then it sure as hell isn't going to be the 6th pick.

[mnfaninnc]

That's a fair assessment. I guess my wonder is if Celebrini is really That good? Hype says he is, but I'm not a big believer in hype. One thing in his column is that he is certainly putting up points among better competition than in jrs. And, he is certainly putting up more points than Stramel.

But, would a big center or big defender be a better selection on this type of team? Especially when we have several undersized players on the team? Or do we simply embrace the undersized and go fully skill and speed?

[Burnt Toast]

I’ve been on an emotional roller coaster ride with the Wild this year and Tony you’re not helping! What I’m talking away from your article is you’re hoping that the Wild can go from “The Titanic” to “Taken” (with the first overall pick the Wild select..” Now you’ve gone and infused hope into my troubled soul. 

[Need4speed99]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Bettman would move heaven and earth to ensure that won't happen.  I'm surprised he hasn't forced the Wild to move to New Mexico or some shit.

Sadly, I agree.

Would really love this scenario. If our other d prospects show up and the 2 Russians come over and produce like they have been this could be a REALLY good team for the next several years. You could roll out 3 lethal lines and one absolute shutdown line. It's a nice dream.

[manbearpig]

8 minutes ago, Burnt Toast said:

I’ve been on an emotional roller coaster ride with the Wild this year and Tony you’re not helping! What I’m talking away from your article is you’re hoping that the Wild can go from “The Titanic” to “Taken” (with the first overall pick the Wild select..” Now you’ve gone and infused hope into my troubled soul. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

3 hours ago, viper3119 said:

Might create a huge log jam though for our prospects with all the no trade and nmc that the wild have given out recently.

Those protections will dwindle, so if they need to move guys, they likely would be able to get it done. Someone like Gaudreau has just a 15-team no trade clause, so roughly half of the NHL is open for a trade.

Ryan Hartman only has a full no movement clause for 24-25, then goes to 15, then reduces to 10 team no trade clause for the final year of his extension. I don't think it will be a major concern, assuming the young guys are actually ready for the NHL.

[MNCountryLife]

3 hours ago, viper3119 said:

If we some how end up with Macklin that would be insane in 2 years with Khus, Yurov, and the rest of our pipeline of prospects all starting to come in at the same time.  Might create a huge log jam though for our prospects with all the no trade and nmc that the wild have given out recently.

Good problem to have.

[B1GKappa97]

If Celebrini wants to join the Wild he needs to stop playing so damn hard so he drops a few slots for us! 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

To me, I would think that the 4-6 slots would be the ones that would help our team the most. And, we're in that window right now.

Keep in mind that finishing 6th would give the Wild greater than 50% chance of selecting 7th or 8th. They'd still have a good player available there, just making it known that they would only have a 34.1% chance of picking 6th, and zero chance of selecting 4th or 5th based upon their current standings placement.

It would be surprising to me if the Wild slipped lower in the standings. Ottawa would have the best chance to pass them, but I expect it will be tough for them or Columbus to get enough points to beat the Wild by the end of the season and the 3 lowest Western teams have an even worse chance.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

But, from our standpoint, is it Celebrini we are dreaming of, or would Saliyev or Lindstrom be better fits for our team? That's a tough call for me as I have not had eyes on Celebrini. I would point out, though, that at the WJCs, Canada, his team, did not make it to a medal game. And, when it comes to that series, for years the Russians have not been allowed to attend. 

He might not be quite at Bedard's level, but a 17-year old freshman playing at this level in college hockey is really impressive.

On NHL.com -- "The top five players in the 2024 draft class are a very strong group but there was no debate over who was No. 1," NHL Central Scouting director Dan Marr said. "Celebrini’s an NHL All-Star in the making having displayed his NHL skills and attributes on the world stage, as a 17-year-old with Canada's World Junior Championship team and while leading Boston University and Hockey East in scoring.

[Disco Strangler]

Who wouldn't want this guy on your team? 😃

 

[Beast]

Nobody is rooting to become a member of this franchise.  And there is not a track record of success here.  This team has largely gotten their arses kicked in the first round of the playoffs.

[Will D. Ness]

8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

That's a fair assessment. I guess my wonder is if Celebrini is really That good? Hype says he is, but I'm not a big believer in hype. One thing in his column is that he is certainly putting up points among better competition than in jrs. And, he is certainly putting up more points than Stramel.

But, would a big center or big defender be a better selection on this type of team? Especially when we have several undersized players on the team? Or do we simply embrace the undersized and go fully skill and speed?

I'm mostly joking around.  Winning the lottery and getting the #1 pick is like... well winning the lottery. 

But ping pong balls aside... yeah definitely we need size in the pipeline.  We drafted big C last year, we should go big D this year.

[Will D. Ness]

6 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

It would be surprising to me if the Wild slipped lower in the standings. Ottawa would have the best chance to pass them, but I expect it will be tough for them or Columbus to get enough points to beat the Wild by the end of the season and the 3 lowest Western teams have an even worse chance.

Looks like Calgary is in a position to out tank us.  I don't know what the Capitals are going to do but they are prime for tanking.

Pittsburg, Jersey and the Islanders are going to compete for the playoffs.  Probably Nashville and Seattle too.

Arizona and Buffalo and Montreal?  That will be a coin flip.

I think worst case for us is 11th and best case maybe 7th.

[Protec]

I suggest everyone start planning on the Wild picking 12th or 14th. 

These pie in the sky suggestions are fun but not likely to ever happen. 

I'll predict and mentally prepare for the worst and if MN ends up 8th, great. 

[MacGyver]

10 hours ago, Beast said:

Nobody is rooting to become a member of this franchise.  And there is not a track record of success here.  This team has largely gotten their arses kicked in the first round of the playoffs.

I think this is a legitimate take. Given the losing culture here and the human explosive device known as Bill Guerin how high is this franchise on anyone's destination list. We talk about all the NTC and NTM clauses given to our players. Most players around the league have those same clauses and it would be interesting to know how many of those have the Wild on their no go list. 

When a high end free agent becomes available and he has a choice of a half dozen or more places to go to will Minnesota win out over say Vegas, New York, Tampa or Boston? Being a destination team is a real thing among players. They consider many things when deciding where to take their talents. Of course money is high on the list but so are things like a winning culture. Schools for the kids, crime rates, weather in a particular place, taxes, where does the wife want to go all factor in. Minnesota does not come to the top in any of these factors. 

They had a interesting discussion about this with I think it was Jordan Leipold on Sirius radio awhile back.   

[B1GKappa97]

8 hours ago, Protec said:

I suggest everyone start planning on the Wild picking 12th or 14th. 

These pie in the sky suggestions are fun but not likely to ever happen. 

I'll predict and mentally prepare for the worst and if MN ends up 8th, great. 

Still some pretty great options there. Most of the top-tier blue-liners will be gone but there's a chance we could still get a potentially elite offensive defenseman if Yakemchuk falls. Tankathon has him going #12. He's pretty much a bigger Matt Dumba clone with a huge shot.

Zayne Parekh would also be a good option at that point of the draft, not as exciting as Yakemchuk but still offensively gifted from the blue-line. Question with him is effort away from the play but that could possibly be coached out of him. 

Otherwise if its a worst-case scenario and a lot of the offensive blueliners are gone, there's some good options for future top-6 wingers, or potential trade bait down the line.

Konsta Helenius should be available there if we want a Mikko Koivu clone. Otherwise Brandsegg-Nygard offers some decent size and could be a triggerman for us like we've been missing since Fiala left. Trevor Connelly, provided the off-ice red flags aren't a huge concern, would be a good option too and fits in with all our other pass-first playmakers.

[raithis]

6 hours ago, MacGyver said:

I think this is a legitimate take. Given the losing culture here and the human explosive device known as Bill Guerin how high is this franchise on anyone's destination list. We talk about all the NTC and NTM clauses given to our players. Most players around the league have those same clauses and it would be interesting to know how many of those have the Wild on their no go list. 

When a high end free agent becomes available and he has a choice of a half dozen or more places to go to will Minnesota win out over say Vegas, New York, Tampa or Boston? Being a destination team is a real thing among players. They consider many things when deciding where to take their talents. Of course money is high on the list but so are things like a winning culture. Schools for the kids, crime rates, weather in a particular place, taxes, where does the wife want to go all factor in. Minnesota does not come to the top in any of these factors. 

They had a interesting discussion about this with I think it was Jordan Leipold on Sirius radio awhile back.   

Generally, any team picking that high isn't a winning team.  If you are getting picked high in the draft, you are probably going to a team that isn't going to challenge for the playoffs in the near future.

In regards to the second part, it's also partly why it's frequently the same teams are often making the high picks.  Bigger markets have the advantage to bounce back more easily than smaller markets because they are more likely to be destinations that free agents will go to.

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, raithis said:

Generally, any team picking that high isn't a winning team.  If you are getting picked high in the draft, you are probably going to a team that isn't going to challenge for the playoffs in the near future.

In regards to the second part, it's also partly why it's frequently the same teams are often making the high picks.  Bigger markets have the advantage to bounce back more easily than smaller markets because they are more likely to be destinations that free agents will go to.

But here's the thing that gets me. It seems like when it comes to the ping pong balls, the large market teams seem to get way luckier than the mid and small market teams. NYR certainly benefited as well as Chicago. Do you get a couple of extra balls in the tank if you're a large market team? It would seem like the stars in the draft certainly get to go to the larger markets. 

[raithis]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

But here's the thing that gets me. It seems like when it comes to the ping pong balls, the large market teams seem to get way luckier than the mid and small market teams. NYR certainly benefited as well as Chicago. Do you get a couple of extra balls in the tank if you're a large market team? It would seem like the stars in the draft certainly get to go to the larger markets. 

Seems that way, doesn't it?  I don't necessarily think that there's some conspiracy to skew the likelihood that the high picks go to larger markets, but I do recognize that it's better for the profitability of the league to have it's most marketable players in locations that are overall more populated.

And when a larger market team needs that high draft pick, they do seem to get it fairly quickly.  Strange how that usually ends up being the case, right?  Strange how perennially bad a team like Arizona is and they've never had a #1 pick, yet somehow larger markets get that highly touted, generational talent.  The odd exception of course is Edmonton, but their luck is just insane.

The thing is, many of those teams already have an advantage just by being larger markets.  They can attract the higher end of the free agent pool far more easily than Minnesota can.  Even if Minnesota was a serious cup contender, we'd still have trouble getting players to choose us over other areas, especially earlier in their careers.

If younger star free agents don't sign with their existing team, they frequently end up going to a larger market or someplace with a warmer climate that is also a medium to large market.  Because of this (and other factors), Minnesota generally gets more of the aging guys who are past their primes and want to settle down.

All this is why it's so important to scout well and find those diamonds in the rough to grow and develop the team from within, something we haven't done a lot of over the years as we've tended to sacrifice youth for those aging guys.  It's fine to get those guys.  Every teams needs some of them.  They just can't come at the expense of NHL-caliber youngsters.

Even if we were the worst team in the league, I feel like we wouldn't have the same luck as some other teams to get the #1, so I wish people would stop wanting us to tank because it's just not going to happen.