Article: Minnesota's Offensive Surge Is Mostly Smoke and Mirrors

[Luke Sims]

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[B1GKappa97]

A goal is a goal whether there's a goalie or not!!

Its all the same come contract time baby! 

[mnfaninnc]

While some underlying numbers may suggest an increased shooting%, there could also be an argument of catching teams at the right time. For instance, Carolina has had goalie problems all season long, and had another one when we played them. FL didn't seem to be clicking when we beat them either. The Islanders had to change coaches shortly after we beat them. 

The other aspect is that our schedule had been pretty tough the first half of the season. Likely, we've also played better goalies, and at least teams with better defenses. That is going to change a bit as the schedule gets easier, but not really until March. 

Does that mean we'll regress back to the 1.0? I would suggest that every team in the league should try to get to over 1, and that is an indicator of who the playoff teams are. .981 suggests that we were not a good team and should be drafting in the top 10 (except our strength of schedule was brutal). If we are somewhere around 1, that would suggest we are 16th in the league and on the border of a playoff appearance. Since the West is not as good as the East, one could even argue that finishing around 18th in this statistic could be enough to get us in.

What it does tell us, I believe, is that:

1. We have not had good puck luck and are due some
2. We are not that good of a team, especially against better competition
3. Our points accurately represent our play to this point

Once again, I'll mention confidence. To me, it appears as if our forwards are playing with more scoring confidence, especially our better players. Confidence plays such a huge part of play and being able to hit those corners. Confidence also helps a player decide to shoot instead of deferring. 

One last observation. This is a sustainable thing if our shooters decide to drive the net and not play on the perimeter so much. Getting pucks to the home plate area and driving the middle of the offensive zone generally leads to better chances. Emphasizing this aspect, I think, can help the shooting% which helps the PDO. Getting opponents to shoot from the outside also does this (helping the save% which helps the PDO). 

[Will D. Ness]

Nashville plays a tight game too.  They have size and play positionally very well.  I don't think it is a championship formula but it is a tough nut to crack 5 on 5.  I think puck luck has higher weight against tight teams.  

I think the Wild have the skill to crack a Preds team but we are definitely not there right now.  Top 6 is close. Bottom 6 is a mile away.  

Defense isn't there either.  Mermis is a 7d but yet better than both Goligoski and Merrill.  Hunt needs to be here.  

[Citizen Strife]

Goals are goals, and it's all about stopping them too.

[mnfaninnc]

I guess this is the best place for the conversation. What do we do now?

In past seasons, Shooter has come out and said that the Wild earned...EARNED... extra help because of the success of 75% of their season. He has gone out and gotten some help and not broken the bank. This season, however, marred with injuries and not overperforming, this team has not met expectations. 

More specifically, in must win scenarios this team has fallen flat:

1. Home and home with Winnipeg= 0 points
2. Home and home with Dallas= 0 points
3. Home game vs. Nashville= 0 points 
4. HDM home game and a loss to the lowly Ducks= 0 points

In fact, what we can conclude that the Wild have earned this season is a nice high draft pick so far. Earned is a 2-way street, and if you earn the high draft pick, selling at the TDL is exactly what is needed. And, the way our results have gone, selling as much as possible outside of the core is what is needed. I hate losing! In fact, just to get through this penalty season, I've adjusted my expectations to watching the kids get better.

Shooter hates to lose to, but in the words of Kenny Rogers, "you've got to know when to fold 'em." And, this past loss, to me, says fold 'em. Why? There's plenty of hockey left! Because when it comes to important games where they need to focus on winning and execute, they haven't been able to this season. They overperformed before and deserved some help. Now, they have almost underperformed their roster and they deserve, well, to give someone else some help.

Now we get to see what color glasses Shooter wears. Are they rose colored, or do they bring his eyes into perfect focus. If the latter, he's got to know when to wave the white flag. It's time to scratch your head and wonder what went wrong? Was it the injuries? A cap strapped and penalized team could conclude that. Or was there more? Like, say, extending 5 guys who overperformed believing they will continue to do this?

As a GM, there were merits to doing this.

1. Reward those who have overperformed their contract
2. Show loyalty which is a 2-way street
3. Cost certainty, especially with an increasing cap that is uncertain

However, the downside is that the players got their money and could afford to coast a little. The urgency to bring it every night simply isn't there anymore. For a 1st time GM, chalk this one up to learning a lesson.

Now we have 10 days off. If I'm GMBG, my next move is scheduling a meeting with the owner. It will be a tough meeting to inform him of failure to make the playoffs this year, however, I'd stress the importance of getting some younger players a good look at the N, and making sure we have room for all 3/4 European players. Direct contact with Yurov's agent is needed to assure him he will have to earn his spot in training camp, but there is room for him should he do it.

Next, it's heading to the All Star game and sitting with as many GMs as possible. Talking players will be the main goal, and maybe getting some interest in players with designations. Near the end of the 10 days, it will be time to present offers with designated players like Goligoski and Fleury. This should be friendly, but at the same time be serious about them moving on for one more shot. Bogosian, Maroon, Johansson should also be on this list. Johansson may turn down a shot, I don't think the other 2 would. Merrill, Duhaime, should also be dealt. 

The future would be the focus, and filling a void on the right hand side of the defense should be important. Spacek isn't going to be ready yet, if at all, same with Masters. Maybe you solve that at the draft? However, at the draft, that guy may not be ready right away either. I think you need at least 2 seasons from a guy before the reinforcements are ready. 

Bottom line is that with the last 2 games, and some earlier failures, this roster has made Guerin's decision very easy: sell. We haven't been in this mode since Fenton's year. And, while we haven't rushed the kids to the N, now is the time for them to take this step. This will better prepare them for what is needed this offseason.

[mnfaninnc]

Last night, the Ducks featured 2 rookie defenders: LaCombe and Zellwegger. LaCombe is the one LaPanta mostly highlighted, but I believe Zellwegger also had ties to the Wild: I believe he was Lambos' defensive partner in jrs. last year. 

I thought it was interesting that he made the N first. Sometimes, need dictates that.

[mnfaninnc]

Down on the farm:

1. Heidt another 2 pt. night
2. Yurov picks up another apple-43 pts.
3. Lambos with a goal
4. Masters is playing in the E again, probably for playing time
5. Stramel gets an apple

Rieger Lorenz plays for U of Denver. He's got 8-9-17 so far this year which is an improvement over last season. I suspect he has moved up in the lineup. Has anyone had eyes on Denver and have any idea what this kid brings to the table? He seems like a sleeper college kid but I believe he was a 2nd round pick. 

[Backwoodsbob]

23 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

 Top 6 is close. Bottom 6 is a mile away.  

Defense isn't there either.

Last night's game should've been worse than the score shows. Gus kept the Wild in the game and didn't get much help.

Does anyone know how we stand in the GAA stat?

I was wondering what the the record W vs L has been when Wes Walz commentates with La Panta? Can't be good.

Get Lou in the box as much as possible!!!

[Up North Guy]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I guess this is the best place for the conversation. What do we do now?

In past seasons, Shooter has come out and said that the Wild earned...EARNED... extra help because of the success of 75% of their season. He has gone out and gotten some help and not broken the bank. This season, however, marred with injuries and not overperforming, this team has not met expectations. 

More specifically, in must win scenarios this team has fallen flat:

1. Home and home with Winnipeg= 0 points
2. Home and home with Dallas= 0 points
3. Home game vs. Nashville= 0 points 
4. HDM home game and a loss to the lowly Ducks= 0 points

In fact, what we can conclude that the Wild have earned this season is a nice high draft pick so far. Earned is a 2-way street, and if you earn the high draft pick, selling at the TDL is exactly what is needed. And, the way our results have gone, selling as much as possible outside of the core is what is needed. I hate losing! In fact, just to get through this penalty season, I've adjusted my expectations to watching the kids get better.

Shooter hates to lose to, but in the words of Kenny Rogers, "you've got to know when to fold 'em." And, this past loss, to me, says fold 'em. Why? There's plenty of hockey left! Because when it comes to important games where they need to focus on winning and execute, they haven't been able to this season. They overperformed before and deserved some help. Now, they have almost underperformed their roster and they deserve, well, to give someone else some help.

Now we get to see what color glasses Shooter wears. Are they rose colored, or do they bring his eyes into perfect focus. If the latter, he's got to know when to wave the white flag. It's time to scratch your head and wonder what went wrong? Was it the injuries? A cap strapped and penalized team could conclude that. Or was there more? Like, say, extending 5 guys who overperformed believing they will continue to do this?

As a GM, there were merits to doing this.

1. Reward those who have overperformed their contract
2. Show loyalty which is a 2-way street
3. Cost certainty, especially with an increasing cap that is uncertain

However, the downside is that the players got their money and could afford to coast a little. The urgency to bring it every night simply isn't there anymore. For a 1st time GM, chalk this one up to learning a lesson.

Now we have 10 days off. If I'm GMBG, my next move is scheduling a meeting with the owner. It will be a tough meeting to inform him of failure to make the playoffs this year, however, I'd stress the importance of getting some younger players a good look at the N, and making sure we have room for all 3/4 European players. Direct contact with Yurov's agent is needed to assure him he will have to earn his spot in training camp, but there is room for him should he do it.

Next, it's heading to the All Star game and sitting with as many GMs as possible. Talking players will be the main goal, and maybe getting some interest in players with designations. Near the end of the 10 days, it will be time to present offers with designated players like Goligoski and Fleury. This should be friendly, but at the same time be serious about them moving on for one more shot. Bogosian, Maroon, Johansson should also be on this list. Johansson may turn down a shot, I don't think the other 2 would. Merrill, Duhaime, should also be dealt. 

The future would be the focus, and filling a void on the right hand side of the defense should be important. Spacek isn't going to be ready yet, if at all, same with Masters. Maybe you solve that at the draft? However, at the draft, that guy may not be ready right away either. I think you need at least 2 seasons from a guy before the reinforcements are ready. 

Bottom line is that with the last 2 games, and some earlier failures, this roster has made Guerin's decision very easy: sell. We haven't been in this mode since Fenton's year. And, while we haven't rushed the kids to the N, now is the time for them to take this step. This will better prepare them for what is needed this offseason.

It definitely is sell time. BG needs to look at all of the players minus the few with highlight futures. Open discussions with every GM. Go back to the players and let them know that they are no longer looked at as the future and their ice time will reflect that. I know that there is only so much he can realistically do because of the corner he has painted himself into, but it still needs to be done. If the vets have become too comfortable then it is up to the GM and coach to get them looking over their shoulder.

[mnfaninnc]

19 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

I know that there is only so much he can realistically do because of the corner he has painted himself into, but it still needs to be done. If the vets have become too comfortable then it is up to the GM and coach to get them looking over their shoulder.

There are some other things the organization can do, but it's pretty mean. I would think that some guys with designations that you might want to move wouldn't be too happy about getting bag skated. They may also not like some other disciplinary action like demotions to 4th line or Prossbox. Those kinds of things don't help when you're recruiting free agents, but may be necessary to help change a player's mind. However, step 1 is a conversation with Billy about the future is coming and them not being a part of it. Followed up with we'll try to find you a good situation and thank you for your time here. 

Some may opt not to go. Perhaps they can get scratched, or placed on IR? I would say that if Goligoski does want a future in management, this would be a good time to comply with the request. He was a really good player, but right now, everyone can see it's over. Maybe he can salvage competing for a cup in his final year and then retiring. We are short a defender in the player development area. That might be part of the front office shake up.

[Mateo3xm]

11 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Down on the farm:

1. Heidt another 2 pt. night
2. Yurov picks up another apple-43 pts.
3. Lambos with a goal
4. Masters is playing in the E again, probably for playing time
5. Stramel gets an apple

Rieger Lorenz plays for U of Denver. He's got 8-9-17 so far this year which is an improvement over last season. I suspect he has moved up in the lineup. Has anyone had eyes on Denver and have any idea what this kid brings to the table? He seems like a sleeper college kid but I believe he was a 2nd round pick. 

Haven’t seen him play but been following him. 
he had a monster year in jrs but last year in college he wasn’t impressive.

this year he’s doing much better but you definitely want to see more production your second year.

hes got size which is nice

[Mateo3xm]

9 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

It definitely is sell time. BG needs to look at all of the players minus the few with highlight futures. Open discussions with every GM. Go back to the players and let them know that they are no longer looked at as the future and their ice time will reflect that. I know that there is only so much he can realistically do because of the corner he has painted himself into, but it still needs to be done. If the vets have become too comfortable then it is up to the GM and coach to get them looking over their shoulder.

Problem is BG handed out no trade clauses to virtually everyone he resigned, that has value..

it’s just baffling to think about sometimes.

[mnfaninnc]

12 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

Problem is BG handed out no trade clauses to virtually everyone he resigned, that has value..

That could be a problem. But let's remember that when they signed these designations, Evason was still the coach and everyone believed this was a playoff roster. Some guys are in this to compete for a Cup, I would think those guys may be interested in moving on, especially if they see Old Mr. Retirement approaching their front door.