Article: Injuries Are Exposing the Pitfalls Of Minnesota's Competitive Strategy

[Justin Hein]

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[Protec]

Yeah pretty much agree you can't have it both ways and MN is always stuck between good enough to go deep and better than the worst of the worst. 

It's aggravating, and sometimes you just need to bow out. Keep the guys on LTIR til they fully heal and just play the best hockey you can. At this point fans see the writing on the wall. Get some expiring contracts off the books, get the best prospect you can in the draft, and get ducks in a row for next season. 

Boldy, when are you gonna really become a top guy? Last year, ya made it look real?

[mnfaninnc]

I agree there has been some pain this year. But the last 3 have been fun. Where would we be if this were the 4th year of non-contending? Plus, the mandate given to the GM was to be in the playoffs every year.

I think the real issue here is slow walking the prospects vs. throwing them into the deep end and seeing if they can swim. Both approaches have merit and benefits. I have particularly liked that Shooter won't trade his prospects and continues to let them get better, but have not liked the development specifically in the area of strength/weight. It's one thing to compete at 175 in the A, and quite another to try and do it in the N.

O'Rourke is now listed at 192, but for his game to translate, he's still got about 18 lbs. of muscle to go. Beckman is another who is too light and cannot compete along the boards or in front of the net in the N. With the time they've spent in the A, I just cannot come up with a viable explanation as to why this has not been a big issue for the club? Simply put, come into camp in shape north of 200 lbs. and you'll get a good look. Weigh in below that, and you'll be on the B rink.

The nice thing about our guys in Russia, is, I believe, they take their strength training a little more seriously. Of course, it's hard to get accurate measurements out of Russia, but I believe to be successful in the K, you need a lot of strength. 

So, what happens when a season like this goes south with so many injured? That's a perfect opportunity to look at the future. I think we might be able to sell off guys like Merrill and Goligoski (if he wants 1 more shot at a title), and we'll probably lose Duhaime, possibly Dewar (though do we really have a replacement for him?). 

Who do we backfill with? Letteiri, Lucchini, Petan are not NHL players. Mermis has held up ok, and Hunt, I believe, is. Lambos should be. The Wall should be too (and I could see Fleury going to a contender for 1 more shot). 

Don't bring up the designations either. Designated players can be dealt, you just need their permission, and they have a say in where they will go. The return might not be high, but at least there will be opportunity there for the younger guys. 

As for the standings, we are trending toward drafting in the 6 slot. A prolonged slump/swoon that takes us out of it would have us dropping more than Buffalo and maybe CBJ. In the Western Conference we are currently at the bottom of the mushy middle. If we keep fading back, we'll be one of the 6 selling teams on the market, and have some guys who could help others. 

[Citizen Strife]

The main thing to look for in a draft (if they get a high position) is defense.  Defense has been Minnesota's calling card, but these injuries have really left Merrill and Goligoski to prove they cannot tread water.  Bogo is a decent enough surprise, but Hunt and probably Lambos are going to take over next year.  The higher a pick they go, the more chance they have on a tall, thick defenseman, or if they really need it, a scoring option.  I think Faber more than covers the slick puck moving defenseman.  But some of the top defensive options offer 6'2'', 6'3", even a 6'7" guy out the gate.  Not sure what that tall guy can do offensively, but there are two things you can't teach: size or offensive talent.  Pick a defenseman with either of those, and it will help balance out the roster going forward.

I understand addressing the "best player available" idea, but I think there are enough centermen and forwards coming to make a go at defense and ensure that Hunt or Lambos aren't the "only" options if things go south.  Brodin and Spurgeon aren't getting any younger.

[mnfaninnc]

Wouldn't someone in the Middleton class with offensive talent and a mean streak just be perfect?

Also, something to remember: Ottawa lost it's first rounder this year!

Edited January 4 by mnfaninnc

[B1GKappa97]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

 The higher a pick they go, the more chance they have on a tall, thick defenseman, or if they really need it, a scoring option.  I think Faber more than covers the slick puck moving defenseman.  But some of the top defensive options offer 6'2'', 6'3", even a 6'7" guy out the gate.  Not sure what that tall guy can do offensively, but there are two things you can't teach: size or offensive talent.  Pick a defenseman with either of those, and it will help balance out the roster going forward.

I understand addressing the "best player available" idea, but I think there are enough centermen and forwards coming to make a go at defense and ensure that Hunt or Lambos aren't the "only" options if things go south.  Brodin and Spurgeon aren't getting any younger.

Bonus: All the defenseman in the top-16 ranked prospects are RHS. Which we also need. 

It wouldn't be the worst thing to get another offensively gifted defenseman with some size. 

It also wouldn't be the worst thing to get a potential top-6 C/W with size either, and if we end up in the top-10 one of those should be available as well. 

So really its a win-win if they don't make the playoffs this year. Honestly after, what, 5 or 6 straight 1st round exits I'm willing to trade one post-season appearance, and another likely 1st round exit, to add a talent who'll help us finally win a series again within a couple more seasons. 

[Willy the poor boy]

3 hours ago, Protec said:

 

Boldy, when are you gonna really become a top guy? Last year, ya made it look real?

He's working on his golf game right now. Once he gets that where he wants it he can concentrate on Hockey.

[mnfaninnc]

4 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

He's working on his golf game right now. Once he gets that where he wants it he can concentrate on Hockey.

Why would he do that? As things look, he'll have plenty of time for that in April and May, plus, better weather!

[Will D. Ness]

I wouldn't get expectations up about the draft.  Instead of around 20, we will pick around 15.  This team has way too much talent and we traded away our ace in the hole... Addison.

[Justin Hein]

4 hours ago, Protec said:

Yeah pretty much agree you can't have it both ways and MN is always stuck between good enough to go deep and better than the worst of the worst. 

It's aggravating, and sometimes you just need to bow out. Keep the guys on LTIR til they fully heal and just play the best hockey you can. At this point fans see the writing on the wall. Get some expiring contracts off the books, get the best prospect you can in the draft, and get ducks in a row for next season. 

Boldy, when are you gonna really become a top guy? Last year, ya made it look real?

I think it's OK to try and compete almost every year, but you have to have an exit strategy. To Guerin's credit, they've had great drafts in playoff years for most of his tenure. But, with these extensions they can't mitigate the bad luck they've had this season. And, they gave up future cap to load up this year. 

Just remember that Boldy is a really good 2-way player, and he doesn't turn 23 until April. I don't think he's a problem on this team even at his current salary, let alone the discount he'll be taking in his prime years. 

[Justin Hein]

3 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

The main thing to look for in a draft (if they get a high position) is defense.  Defense has been Minnesota's calling card, but these injuries have really left Merrill and Goligoski to prove they cannot tread water.  Bogo is a decent enough surprise, but Hunt and probably Lambos are going to take over next year.  The higher a pick they go, the more chance they have on a tall, thick defenseman, or if they really need it, a scoring option.  I think Faber more than covers the slick puck moving defenseman.  But some of the top defensive options offer 6'2'', 6'3", even a 6'7" guy out the gate.  Not sure what that tall guy can do offensively, but there are two things you can't teach: size or offensive talent.  Pick a defenseman with either of those, and it will help balance out the roster going forward.

I don't mind them loading up some defense, but it's often hard to get value that way. Most draft picks on defense don't hit the league for several years, so they can't help in the short or medium term. 

[Willy the poor boy]

36 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Why would he do that? As things look, he'll have plenty of time for that in April and May, plus, better weather!

Priorities.

[Justin Hein]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

O'Rourke is now listed at 192, but for his game to translate, he's still got about 18 lbs. of muscle to go. Beckman is another who is too light and cannot compete along the boards or in front of the net in the N. With the time they've spent in the A, I just cannot come up with a viable explanation as to why this has not been a big issue for the club? Simply put, come into camp in shape north of 200 lbs. and you'll get a good look. Weigh in below that, and you'll be on the B rink.

The nice thing about our guys in Russia, is, I believe, they take their strength training a little more seriously. Of course, it's hard to get accurate measurements out of Russia, but I believe to be successful in the K, you need a lot of strength. 

I think height/weight isn't enough anymore. As fans it's easy for us to take a quick glance at them, but smaller players can compete with sufficient lower body strength. The NHL game also favors defensemen who can possess the puck, so smaller players can make up for their size with strong skating legs in both ways. 

As for Russia, I think it's the best developmental league in the world. Has less to do with strength training and more to do with quality of competition, which is all backed up by analytical models like those at HockeyProspecting.com .  I don't mind where Yurov is playing, except that he should be at the NHL level. 

Thanks for reading! 

[Justin Hein]

4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

So, what happens when a season like this goes south with so many injured? That's a perfect opportunity to look at the future. I think we might be able to sell off guys like Merrill and Goligoski (if he wants 1 more shot at a title), and we'll probably lose Duhaime, possibly Dewar (though do we really have a replacement for him?). 

...

As for the standings, we are trending toward drafting in the 6 slot. A prolonged slump/swoon that takes us out of it would have us dropping more than Buffalo and maybe CBJ. In the Western Conference we are currently at the bottom of the mushy middle. If we keep fading back, we'll be one of the 6 selling teams on the market, and have some guys who could help others. 

To your point, they should be looking to the future -- but none of their movable pieces are going to make much of a dent. Competitors have no need for Merrill, Goligoski, Dewar, or Duhaime -- we won't get more than a 6th round pick for any of those players. 

That's why extending all of Hartman, Zuccarello, and Foligno is just bad management. The team could have waited on one or two of them, leaving trade chips for the event of a down year. Instead, there's no pieces to sell which could bring a meaningful return. 

The Wild currently sit 6th in points% but that will improve once they get healthy. They won't shut guys down because they have no incentive to do so, and no NHL player wants to tank. Kaprizov, Brodin, and Gustavsson are all about two weeks from returning, and there's no way we finish outside the top 10 picks barring further injuries. 

[Pewterschmidt]

24 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

NHL player wants to tank

NoJo would be the exception

[B1GKappa97]

Quote

I think height/weight isn't enough anymore. As fans it's easy for us to take a quick glance at them, but smaller players can compete with sufficient lower body strength. The NHL game also favors defensemen who can possess the puck, so smaller players can make up for their size with strong skating legs in both ways. 

Until you get to the playoffs. Then size definitely matters. Its an absolute grind and having bigger guys who can lay bigger hits, or withstand them better, seems to win out. 

That's why you see teams pass up on more skill at the top of the draft to get the guys with size more frequently. 

[mnfaninnc]

19 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

I think height/weight isn't enough anymore. As fans it's easy for us to take a quick glance at them, but smaller players can compete with sufficient lower body strength. The NHL game also favors defensemen who can possess the puck, so smaller players can make up for their size with strong skating legs in both ways. 

As for Russia, I think it's the best developmental league in the world. Has less to do with strength training and more to do with quality of competition, which is all backed up by analytical models like those at HockeyProspecting.com .  I don't mind where Yurov is playing, except that he should be at the NHL level. 

To clarify, I'm not as concerned about height as I am about weight. Simply put, you need mass to compete. For instance, I thought Rossi would be a good player because he was 185 when we drafted him. At 5'9", that's a pretty compact package, and his edges should have thrown larger players off their leverage. 

However, due to the myocarditis, Rossi had to shut everything down for the better part of a year. He lost weight and was playing in the 170s. Clearly from the eye test, this just wasn't fair to him. He looked frail. He had no board battle, and he had no jump. If you compared this player with his jr. tape, it wasn't the same player. 

His 15 lbs. of muscle that he put on this offseason probably plays the biggest role in his success this year. He needs another offseason like this one IMO. He will be strong, hit with a low center of gravity and be almost impossible to knock off the puck. Couple that with his ability to cut side to side, he'll tie up larger defenders in knots.

The weight has to be good weight, though. And it should be proportionate to the height. For instance, it would be difficult to have a 5'10" player playing at 215. But, that same player needs to at least be at 195 or he's just too weak. He'd be too weak to win board battles, too weak to take the punishment in front of the net. People tend to point at Spurgeon and say he can do it. Well, Spurgeon is an extreme exception.

Guys like O'Rourke have a highly physical game with some huge blow up checks. Try that at 190 on Foligno; don't be surprised if you're knocked on your butt and walking down the tunnel. With O'Rourke's height, he has to play at about 210, and for him to only be at 192, IMO, is organizational negligence. 

Beckman is similar and is playing at 6'2". He needs the strength that comes from 205ish. Brodin is the same height and plays in the mid 190s. He's an exception and can skate his way out of trouble. Yet, we've seen him get walked in the playoffs by most Blues forwards. We saw him get hurt against Vancouver when he was awkwardly caught on the side boards, try to play through it, and then get annihilated by Kane who still has not paid for that dirty hit. And, with Kane, it will take someone like Maroon to hit him hard in a corner and drop and chuck without even asking. You need a couple of good shots early on Kane to make it worth while since he handles himself quite well. 

But, again, Beckman, like O'Rourke is trying to play at a lighter weight. At 190, he can probably get around the ice in the A, but that won't cut it in the N. He's got some wonderful tools I think we can use, but he's got to add 15 lbs. of muscle if he wants his shot. It's that simple.

Justin, to your point, it's not just about height/weight anymore. There needs to be skill with that. But it is still about that ratio where you must have the strength or you will not succeed. Addison is a perfect example. Would he be more like Letang or more like Ryan Murphy? For the last 2 seasons, he has fallen into the Ryan Murphy class more and more simply because he's too weak to compete. On top of that, he does not like the physical part of the game and looks to not take part in it. I believe this is mainly due to the fact that he gets owned every time. He's a -16 on the season so far. No matter what he can do on the PP, -16 for half a season is really, really bad.

So, moving forward, Hunt needs to add at least 10 lbs. of strength. Lambos needs about 15 lbs. of strength. Even Faber could use 10 lbs. more. Beckman needs 10-15 lbs., Rossi needs another 10 lbs., and Boldy needs 15 lbs. and a lot more upper body strength. I believe Yurov, Dino, Firstov and Ohgren will all come in with the needed strength. Heidt and Haight probably need about the same. Tiger too. Spacek, Masters, Peart all need 15 lbs.+ of strength. It would do Dewar good to get 10 lbs. of strength. I'd like to see Hartman regain some of his strength, he still looks like he's lost some on his upper right side. 

At least, that's how I see it.

[Will D. Ness]

Somewhere there is a law of diminishing return when it comes to size.  I don't think the NHL has quite gone the route of the NBA where they have removed the positional aspect to such a degree that small fast guys are going to thrive like they are in the NBA.  The physical side of things in hockey still favors strength.