Article: The Wild Are Fully In Control Of Their Playoff Destiny

[Justin Wiggins]

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[mnfaninnc]

I just don't think that Winnipeg is that strong of a team. Down the stretch last year, they looked like a solid playoff team and then collapsed, barely getting in. We haven't even played them yet this year, but that comes up at Christmas time. I do agree with the top teams in the Pacific, and while Vancouver has been playing well, they are fully capable of collapsing too.

The formula is there, same as the last few years: Win the games you're supposed to win, win some of the games you're not supposed to win, and take partial credit (loser points). That means that teams with power rankings in the 20s and 30s, they have to be automatic wins and it should be in regulation. Teams ranked in the teens should be 2/3 wins, maybe with a loser point on the 3rd game. In the top 10, those should be 1/3 wins with a loser point tacked on. 

This also means you need to show up for every game. No more bad performances against teams you should beat! Really, under Evason, this was his strength. He had, what I believe, to be the best record against competition that should be beaten in Wild history. It was uncanny how he could get them through those games. Perhaps Hynes can navigate that ship too. But the main thing is, we are not scoreboard watching yet, it's simply a take care of business mentality and worry about our success. Climbing the standings will follow. 

I still think we should be 3rd in the division by season's end.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

The Athletic currently projects Minnesota to miss the playoffs with Nashville in the #8 spot. The Wild won their only contest against Nashville so far, and the remaining 3 games between them could be crucial in determining who ends up in the postseason.

They project Arizona and St. Louis to fall off quite a bit, which would not be overly surprising. They Project Calgary just behind the Wild. Tons of hockey ahead yet, but seems like it could be a tight race through the end of the season.

Also, the LA Kings have been on fire with Kopitar, Kempe, and Fiala all at 1 point per game. Strong play from Cam Talbot has been helping as well, with him ranked 4th in save percentage(.927) among all goalies who have played in at least 8 games. Their backup is only at .870 in save percentage.

The Kings have played one of the toughest schedules and may challenge for the conference lead given they have statistically the easiest remaining schedule and fewest games played so far amongst Western conference teams.

[Citizen Strife]

Just win, baby!

[Pewterschmidt]

37 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

the LA Kings have been on fire with Kopitar, Kempe, and Fiala all at 1 point per game.

For those who think we won the Fiala trade because we got faber i beg to differ.  Even though faber is a legit D1, Fiala is proving to be a gd unicorn.  Hoping Ohgren(or yurov)becomes a Kempe type power forward.  If that happens we win the trade

[FredJohnson]

[FredJohnson]

5 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

For those who think we won the Fiala trade because we got faber i beg to differ.  Even though faber is a legit D1, Fiala is proving to be a gd unicorn.  Hoping Ohgren(or yurov)becomes a Kempe type power forward.  If that happens we win the trade

There wasn't a way to win that trade. We got more than I thought we would though.

[Dango]

We lost Fiala but i think there could be some opportunities ahead  ,ofcourse they wont be easy .

Maybe Jake Guentzel sees the pens rebuilding with the 2 top dogs reaching 40s ,  37 and 38 when his contract expires maybe he sees greener pastures elsewhere ,  or Nylander , Marshasault ,  long shots i know but we can get a good player if we wanted .  Mn isnt a terrible organization and theyre always a pretty good team  proving they arent cheapskates  .

 

 

[Dango]

2 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

There wasn't a way to win that trade. We got more than I thought we would though.

Im not exactly sure if what im saying is correct but had they offered fiala an offer sheet of what they ended up paying him 7.875.000  the Wild would have gotten a 1st,2nd,3rd round picks ,  I think  anyways  .  

[Imyourhuckleberry]

8th place Arizona has played 2 more games and are only 4 points ahead now, so now that the Wild moved 1 point ahead of Edmonton, if the Wild win their next two, the Wild would be in 8th place. Arizona may hold tie breakers currently, but Wild will face them eventually--January 13th for the first meeting.

[Tom Gribalski]

Missing the playoffs would be really disappointing this year

[FredJohnson]

On 12/16/2023 at 7:02 PM, Dango said:

Im not exactly sure if what im saying is correct but had they offered fiala an offer sheet of what they ended up paying him 7.875.000  the Wild would have gotten a 1st,2nd,3rd round picks ,  I think  anyways  .  

No other team would've picked up that offer sheet. They all would've waited for us to drop it anyway as we couldn't fit the contract under the cap at the time. (Or we'd have had dump, a.k.a. trade other contracts to be cap compliant.)

[mnfaninnc]

On 12/16/2023 at 11:34 AM, Pewterschmidt said:

For those who think we won the Fiala trade because we got faber i beg to differ.  Even though faber is a legit D1, Fiala is proving to be a gd unicorn.  Hoping Ohgren(or yurov)becomes a Kempe type power forward.  If that happens we win the trade

This is how I think we won the deal (and that doesn't mean that LA lost the deal). We did get what looks to be a legit D1, but more importantly, we got a D1 on the right side, something we did not have in the organization coming up. 

We were also able to draft Ohgren which allowed us to swing at Yurov. Just getting Faber meant we traded positions and both organizations got excellent players. However, somehow we must make up for Fiala's scoring. That is non-existent right now. 

But, should Yurov and/or Ohgren come in as a solid player who can contribute on the score sheet, that would make it a huge win for us. But, LA got Fiala at least a year early and has enjoyed his production, so they get a win too. In fact, they have another RHS D1 defender in Brandt Clarke. So, they traded from a strength. We traded from desperation, so for us to get a player of Faber's calibre, and possibly other help, our hedge will take time. 

The other thing that must be looked at in this, however, is the immediate cap savings the organization got. We'll have Yurov on an ELC, and we've got Faber currently there. Those positions will end up being overperformed to contract status. If we get long and prosperous careers out of them, we definitely win, but LA had the money and they had the centers to make Fiala very productive. 

And, Fiala wins, because he got to take his wife to a nice climate to help out her career and they get to spend far more time together. Faber wins because he gets to play in his hometown where he always wanted to play. Yurov wins getting to play with Kaprizov and Ohgren wins because he plays in a place closest resembling his home. 

I feel like Oprah now: you get a win, and you get a win, wins for everyone!

[Pewterschmidt]

17 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

The other thing that must be looked at in this, however, is the immediate cap savings the organization got. We'll have Yurov on an ELC, and we've got Faber currently there.

Great point.  Someone might look real smart from a navigating cap hell standpoint if Yurov pans out and becomes a contributing nhl'r (even 3rd liner).  If Yurov goes full Firstov we lost the trade.  

80+ pt forward > D1's all day, every day.

If Faber evolves into more of a Cale Makar offensive contributor in 2-3 yrs well then I'd be willing to change my mind.  If he remains a younger, faster Brodin then we need Yurov to call this a win.  The reason I can't let this one go is because this was one of Benito's first impactful moves so he will get judged on this.

Speaking of Benito, the Suter/Parise releases are starting to make more sense.  Benito wanted no doubt who was the new sheriff in Wild town.  This personality trait (aka leadership/alpha/control freak/Fenton-tastic?) plays in Pokipsee if you're a gladiator wearing the pads against other gladiators.  Not so much in the more gentile suit and tie environment.  

[raithis]

33 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

This is how I think we won the deal (and that doesn't mean that LA lost the deal). We did get what looks to be a legit D1, but more importantly, we got a D1 on the right side, something we did not have in the organization coming up. 

We were also able to draft Ohgren which allowed us to swing at Yurov. Just getting Faber meant we traded positions and both organizations got excellent players. However, somehow we must make up for Fiala's scoring. That is non-existent right now. 

But, should Yurov and/or Ohgren come in as a solid player who can contribute on the score sheet, that would make it a huge win for us. But, LA got Fiala at least a year early and has enjoyed his production, so they get a win too. In fact, they have another RHS D1 defender in Brandt Clarke. So, they traded from a strength. We traded from desperation, so for us to get a player of Faber's calibre, and possibly other help, our hedge will take time. 

The other thing that must be looked at in this, however, is the immediate cap savings the organization got. We'll have Yurov on an ELC, and we've got Faber currently there. Those positions will end up being overperformed to contract status. If we get long and prosperous careers out of them, we definitely win, but LA had the money and they had the centers to make Fiala very productive. 

And, Fiala wins, because he got to take his wife to a nice climate to help out her career and they get to spend far more time together. Faber wins because he gets to play in his hometown where he always wanted to play. Yurov wins getting to play with Kaprizov and Ohgren wins because he plays in a place closest resembling his home. 

I feel like Oprah now: you get a win, and you get a win, wins for everyone!

Exactly this.  The cap savings is huge actually.  It wasn't that we chose not to pay Fiala, it was that we chose to pay Boldy.  In order to have kept both (assuming Fiala was willing to re-sign at all), we would have had to gut the rest of the team, and a couple players would have needed to waive clauses or been willing to go to a team with cap space (and likely not a good team) just to make it happen.  Even then, we'd have a lot of league minimum or ELC contracts on our roster, burning years that could be staggered better to absorb them easier as the salary cap climbs and other player's contracts end.  That, and filling the developmental gap with Faber helps us a lot.

Given the circumstances, this worked out well for both teams.  There's no way Fiala Looks as good on this team as he does in LA.  LA can surround him with better players than we could have had we chosen to keep him.

[FredJohnson]

43 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

The other thing that must be looked at in this, however, is the immediate cap savings the organization got. We'll have Yurov on an ELC, and we've got Faber currently there. Those positions will end up being overperformed to contract status.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Not so much in the more gentile suit and tie environment.  

Wait, since when does Shooter wear ties?

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, raithis said:

There's no way Fiala Looks as good on this team as he does in LA.  LA can surround him with better players than we could have had we chosen to keep him.

I sure would have liked to have seen a Boldy-Ek-Fiala line before seeing this conclusion. Coupling that with a Zuccarello-Rossi-Kaprizov line might have been special....offensively.

[Up North Guy]

4 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Speaking of Benito, the Suter/Parise releases are starting to make more sense. 

Parise is without a job and will retire if he cannot find one. If he did that after a Wild trade the Wild would be on the hook for huge cap recapture penalties. They would be looking for ways to cut multiple big buck players. Yes, the buyouts were needed.