Article: Wilderness Walk: Is This Just Regression To the Mean?

[Thomas Williams]

View full article

[Citizen Strife]

Wins are wins, however you get them.  This team couldn't buy goals or stops a week ago.  They proved they can beat three divisional opponents pretty decisively.  It is up to them to keep the upward trajectory going.

[Jamesgang]

We could not beat the bad teams earlier this year so I take this as a positive step

[MNCountryLife]

Our PK looks different and noticeably better.  This change appears to be coaching related but time will tell us if these changes hold up to the smell test.....or not.  

[Disco Strangler]

22 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Our PK looks different and noticeably better.  This change appears to be coaching related but time will tell us if these changes hold up to the smell test.....or not.  

Chicago has the worst PP in the league and St Louis the 2'd worst. I'd give a lot of credit to having Spurgeon back and getting up to speed. He has to be one of the best shot blockers on the team. 

[MNCountryLife]

1 hour ago, Disco Strangler said:

I'd give a lot of credit to having Spurgeon back and getting up to speed

No doubt Spurgeon helps.  Spurgeon should own a PHD on how to properly play D in the NHL.  There are other things I see as well though.  Such as the PK protecting the blue line vs the red.  As well as, playing a high bred of constantly pressuring the puck vs being completely passive.   I don't think you can discount those changes completely.  That being said, time will tell to what extent it is helping (if at all)... as we play more teams and ones that are better at the PP.  So far I like the change.

[mnfaninnc]

Lost in the shuffle of this may be the firing of Woods. He was in charge of the defense and the PK, which was getting worse the longer he was there. This may be the best tactical part of the shake up. 

Evason seemed like more of a leader of men type of coach, he left the Xs & Os to his assistants. But, his insistence on keeping Woods may have proven to be his downfall. 

Next, Dwyer was brought in to help with the PK. But, IIRC, Dwyer was a forward not a defender. Who's in charge of the D? I'm not sure we have anyone? But, the D look to be playing much better.

So, is this really just a coach bump or something else? Protec has been saying all along that if you can fix special teams the team will be alright. The PK seemed to be fixed, and the PP started scoring. That's a good recipe for some wins. 

But, it goes further than that. Evason wasn't very flexible changing up lines. Hynes might be. For instance, on Sunday, we saw Hartman playing 4th line. Was it punishment for the suspension? Was it just where he fit? We also saw what someone else predicted, not quite sure who: Faber playing PP minutes.

For me, the eye test reveals a team playing much more structured and getting far more chances. I don't think that is just the coaching change, but it seems like they have dialed back some of their aggression, a tactical move. They also seem to be moving more cohesively like a unit, perhaps a tweak in strategy. 

The real thing, though, is they are playing Western Conference teams that are lower in the rankings. I think we found out that the Eastern Conference up and down are better than the West at this time. Now we have an opportunity to make up some ground. 

So, to answer the question in the title, I don't think it's regression to the mean, that helps, but there are other factors that are equally contributing.

[Will D. Ness]

5 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

So, to answer the question in the title, I don't think it's regression to the mean, that helps, but there are other factors that are equally contributing.

Assuming the mean is something like puck luck... then yeah I think there is a little bit of that going on.

Assuming the mean is the Wild being a playoff team... then yeah we are regressing towards the playoffs.  (yeah I said that right)

Assuming the mean is the players not having their heads up their ass... then yeah they seem to be regressing towards being turtleheads.  

I think it is fair to say that there has been a change is style as well as a change in psychology and also a change in luck and it is all regressing towards?

The 20th pick?

(I'm actually much more optimistic but having fun)

[mnfaninnc]

I think the regression was actually referring to 2 things:

1. shooting %
2. save%

At least that's how I took the title. I think puck luck is a different animal. That's where odd things suddenly happen, like pucks hitting stansions and giving players open nets to shoot at.