Article: What Can the Wild Expect From New Coach John Hynes?

[Tony Abbott]

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[FredJohnson]

Does he go by Hynie!

Asking for a friend.

[Jamesgang]

This seems in line with what I have read about Hynes. The only upside I see is his ability to develop younger players. With the strength of the Wild’s pipeline, this will be a key skill. Our future is tied to the up and coming stars.
We need to stop trying to turn every offensive star into a gritty defenseman. Let the scorers be scorers and the defense protect our end. Players still need to be responsible defensively but when defense becomes more important than offense, you get what we have. Dean’s biggest fault was forcing players to prove themselves defensively before trusting them on offense. 

[mnfaninnc]

Well, this is the best roster that Hynes has had. Remember that coach Q also struggled before he got to Chicago. Perhaps Hynes has learned something?

Maybe, just maybe, Hynes believes in practices instead of time off? Maybe Hynes will demand more from his players? Maybe they will start finishing checks as a unit again? Maybe they will start on time? 

[greg]

Well written article.  I agree with your assessment exchanging Evason for Hynes.  It does nothing for me.  It comes across as Guerin protecting his own position.  Why is he so hellbent on giving contracts to older players with no trade clauses?  All you do is back yourself and the franchise into a corner that can only hamper the organization.  So why isnt Bill Guerin under the microscope?

[FredJohnson]

6 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Maybe they will start finishing checks as a unit again? Maybe they will start on time? 

We can hope...

[Dean]

Great article!
        I was reading dobberprospects.com 2020 article about probability an nhl prospect makes and plays 100 nhl games . Percentage by round

1st 74%
2nd 34% 
3rd 27%
4th 22%
5th 15%
6th 16%
7th 11%
                These numbers are similar to the percentages Tampas gm gave for picks. When asked about trading all there picks for tough guy tanner jeanoit . Tampa felt the probability’s were so low that it made more sense for them to get what they know instead of gambling on probability. I’m not implying anything. Just making an observation on the likelihood of prospects. 

[bisopher]

Tony's last line:

But history suggests that swapping Evason out for Hynes is neither an upgrade nor more than a superficial disruption of the status quo.

...is fully correct.  And yet it's all GMBG can do, it appears.  At some point in the future Bill's got to be called out on the fact that the answer to every problem is not to "get that player I know from when I was in Pittsburgh ", or in this case, "hire that coach i know from when i was in Pittsburgh ".

There are 30 other teams full of players and coaches in the NHL, but you sure wouldn't know it by looking at Bill's moves.

[Dean]

There’s an article today saying the wild think they need 200-300 million to renovate excel. They are pushing ahead in the 2024 bonding legislation. It didn’t say how much they’ll ask in public bonding money. A state representative was quoted saying there’s already 2 billion in asks for public bonding money. . That it would be a tough sell for wild because money is for roads , bridges , utilities and other infrastructure needs of the public. The representative said it wasn’t appropriate use of bonding money for a private entity. 

[Luke Sims]

2 hours ago, Jamesgang said:

This seems in line with what I have read about Hynes. The only upside I see is his ability to develop younger players. With the strength of the Wild’s pipeline, this will be a key skill. Our future is tied to the up and coming stars.
We need to stop trying to turn every offensive star into a gritty defenseman. Let the scorers be scorers and the defense protect our end. Players still need to be responsible defensively but when defense becomes more important than offense, you get what we have. Dean’s biggest fault was forcing players to prove themselves defensively before trusting them on offense. 

Everything I've seen about Hynes said he's bad with young players. Don't get your hopes up and don't google Eli Tolvanen.

[Luke Sims]

Guerin likes him because the two used to grab beers together back in the day. It seems to me like Guerin brought in a buddy instead of risking a new hire.

[Willy the poor boy]

15 minutes ago, Dean said:

There’s an article today saying the wild think they need 200-300 million to renovate excel. They are pushing ahead in the 2024 bonding legislation. It didn’t say how much they’ll ask in public bonding money. A state representative was quoted saying there’s already 2 billion in asks for public bonding money. . That it would be a tough sell for wild because money is for roads , bridges , utilities and other infrastructure needs of the public. The representative said it wasn’t appropriate use of bonding money for a private entity. 

Bring us a SCC and then we can talk.

[Willy the poor boy]

14 minutes ago, Luke Sims said:

Guerin likes him because the two used to grab beers together back in the day. It seems to me like Guerin brought in a buddy instead of risking a new hire.

Wouldn't expect anything else from the country club.

[Dean]

Watched the presser. Billy doubled down on contracts and clauses. Says it’s a negotiation and he had to give to them. He’ thinks he has them all in good deals. Wow. IMO that won’t age well. It’s exactly why I don’t believe in bill anymore. Getting out negotiated by bottom six guys.  That doesn’t bode well for building a Stanley cup contender. Tampa isn’t signing stamkos till end of year or maybe they use money to go after Nylander. They left themselves flexibility. Yzerman strong armed Larkin. Billy folds to Fred. He could have been humble and said maybe not so smart to give out clauses. Nope. He doubled down on crazy.  Taking the ufa s off market for trade deadline.  Look at what free agents got this year. Nothing like the contracts bill gave out. 

[Lovehockey]

There is nothing new and unexpected. Just forget about Wild and watch T-wolves. And also see what the new yong owner can do 

[WIWild]

Observations:
1. Not a big fan of Dean (def not during playoffs), but not sure this change will move the needle.
2. Listened to non homer broadcasts for the past couple of games, and that actually gave some insight/reinforcement to what the average fan thinks. I'd recommend. Announcers were beside themselves when we took a penalty late AND kept playing that league awful passive PK AND made no effort to get the puck and pull the goalie for an outside chance. Have players bought into the PK style? Frustrated at the PK coach, and then frustrated with Dean for not overturning a style that gets you a 30th PK in the league? Or. like somebody smarter than me here said, coaches have an expiration date (and it's become toxic to the team)
3. KK97 is our superstar and we have similar hopes for Boldy. Neither have produced. KK97, not too long ago, was giving the other team breakaways.
4. Two years ago(?) almost every player probably had their career year - we were so happy at that crazy coincidence. Is it that this year, everybody is at their worst?
5. Bogo, Merril, Middleton, Johanssen, Goli - what can I say
6. I was thinking we must have the toughest strength of schedule in the league, and that's why we have a bad record. But then I looked at our schedule, and the standings, and was like dang, this is who we are. 2/3 of the teams should beat us. We are who we used to look at as the easy wins.
 

[Protec]

45 minutes ago, Luke Sims said:

Guerin likes him because the two used to grab beers together back in the day. It seems to me like Guerin brought in a buddy instead of risking a new hire.

Maybe Geurin needs a guy who he can tell what to do?

Maybe Guerin needs a guy at the moment and a placeholder/kick at the can looking for lightning in a bottle?

Maybe Guerin's just a facade for an owner who has no reason to do anything different since the Xcel is always full?

Maybe Guerin should be fired, but I would guess he got some kind of assurance before the buyouts? Time would be allowed to develop the new plan. Thus, making him safe for a period while things play out.

The overachievement of the last two years, importance of Dumba, and absolute drop-off amongst contract players has been a surprise without obvious attribution. 

I had been pretty happy with Guerin and the overall trajectory. We expected these to be tough years so the contracts for vets were a surprise. I don't think they bury Bill but because of the deals, he's reduced his flexibility to near zero. The situation has sideways'd rapidly. Stability, gone, success gone, chemistry gone, confidence goneski. It makes me wonder if this is some sort of step back for a lottery pick disguised as a series of unfortunate setbacks, 5D chess??? The Wild have stayed relevant and the Owner making $$$. They could never come out and say, "we're gonna blow the season."

I mean, if you were gonna blow the season, what would you do differently? Boldy is golfing a week before the season and Kaprizov worst season to date? Weird.

Personally, I think the most likely thing is that injuries and slow starts turned into losses and bad mojo due to lazy off-seasons and guys thinking they would show up and be good. Meanwhile other teams were more hungry and now MN feels sorry for itself while Guerin tries to salvage something from his first serious misjudgement.(There are others sure, but none bad enough to derail a season or draw extra heavy rebuke.) 

What MN does til the All-Star break should be interesting. Will they bounce back or fizzle out? That might tell us if Evason had lost the room or if the players just couldn't conjure the grit.

It is also very weird to call the team Grits with baby-face Boldy, Siberian-skill, Norwegian Hobbit, Smallish Spurge, dough-boy 1A tendy, and Mojo the stick-dropper-non-battler.

Odds are Guerin needs to regroup himself more than another distraction to conceal his 5D chess moves for the Wild's future.

[Pewterschmidt]

3 hours ago, greg said:

So why isnt Bill Guerin under the microscope?

I think BG has Leo's confidence (see: promotion to President.  This is because he like's BG's marketing/personnel/org mgmt moves).  That confidence goes pear shaped when the on-ice product looks the way it has this season, for an extended period.  BG desperately needs Yurov/Khus/Ohgren et al to become contributing top 6 forwards SOON, not five years from now.  BG doesn't get 5 more years of this seasons team.  If the prospect pipeline becomes a group of Granlund/Coyle types I'd be surprised BG see's the end of Foligno's contract from the mgmt suites.  I think Dean's incompetence had become so well known that it was beginning to hurt the Wild brand and BG's standing within the org.  That's why BG cut him loose so quickly after two 100 pt seasons.  futility in 1st rounds and terrible special teams were just the main excuses, but i think Billy needed to do this for Billy too.

[Willy the poor boy]

46 minutes ago, Protec said:

Maybe Geurin needs a guy who he can tell what to do?

Maybe Guerin needs a guy at the moment and a placeholder/kick at the can looking for lightning in a bottle?

Maybe Guerin's just a facade for an owner who has no reason to do anything different since the Xcel is always full?

Maybe Guerin should be fired, but I would guess he got some kind of assurance before the buyouts? Time would be allowed to develop the new plan. Thus, making him safe for a period while things play out.

The overachievement of the last two years, importance of Dumba, and absolute drop-off amongst contract players has been a surprise without obvious attribution. 

I had been pretty happy with Guerin and the overall trajectory. We expected these to be tough years so the contracts for vets were a surprise. I don't think they bury Bill but because of the deals, he's reduced his flexibility to near zero. The situation has sideways'd rapidly. Stability, gone, success gone, chemistry gone, confidence goneski. It makes me wonder if this is some sort of step back for a lottery pick disguised as a series of unfortunate setbacks, 5D chess??? The Wild have stayed relevant and the Owner making $$$. They could never come out and say, "we're gonna blow the season."

I mean, if you were gonna blow the season, what would you do differently? Boldy is golfing a week before the season and Kaprizov worst season to date? Weird.

Personally, I think the most likely thing is that injuries and slow starts turned into losses and bad mojo due to lazy off-seasons and guys thinking they would show up and be good. Meanwhile other teams were more hungry and now MN feels sorry for itself while Guerin tries to salvage something from his first serious misjudgement.(There are others sure, but none bad enough to derail a season or draw extra heavy rebuke.) 

What MN does til the All-Star break should be interesting. Will they bounce back or fizzle out? That might tell us if Evason had lost the room or if the players just couldn't conjure the grit.

It is also very weird to call the team Grits with baby-face Boldy, Siberian-skill, Norwegian Hobbit, Smallish Spurge, dough-boy 1A tendy, and Mojo the stick-dropper-non-battler.

Odds are Guerin needs to regroup himself more than another distraction to conceal his 5D chess moves for the Wild's future.

No way was this move made to tank. BG still believes this team can win. This move was made to salvage the season. I think they'll be as bad as ever though. They may look better in the short term, but this team eventually misses the playoffs.

[Protec]

^^^

Agreed Bill had some security to a point near the end of the cap penalties based on the job he did to correct after Fenton and with the approval of the buyouts. This season is a huge blemish on his record because it takes an opposite turn from a healthy expectation.

The Wild aren't to their presumed destination overall but they came to believe they were pretty good on the way. This season is a tough wake up call. Big picture is true, new guys need to be good NHL players and you gotta know when to fold. Right now Mojo & Boldy aren't the only guys who look lost on the stat sheet. Zuccarello has done his job at least and Fleury hasn't been a bum. It's a weird spot to be again with a Wild team that has serious questions, yet wants to be a playoff contender and identifies as one despite showing the league and fans they stink.

[Protec]

6 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

No way was this move made to tank. BG still believes this team can win. This move was made to salvage the season. I think they'll be as bad as ever though. They may look better in the short term, but this team eventually misses the playoffs.

Yeah, I think you're right. There's surprise at the results being so bad. Special teams still not any good. Guerin started with a shot across the bow and no changes, so the coach is next. If the team still sucks, it is an indictment of the players. If they have some sort of dramatic response for the better, perhaps Evason was the reason.

The part I didn't like about Evason was how predictable he was. Lack of adaptability or response-factor. Rigidity, lack of creativity, and that he was giving days off while the team was sucking on special teams early this year. That doesn't seem smart to me for a coach who's job it is to keep the team functioning as a well-oiled machine. We started asking this question before the Addison-Bogo transaction so not really surprised and yes the Wild identify as a team they are not. Deboer recently joked about how the Wild are predictable and easy to defeat. That sounds like what a winning coach says. MN grit has been a joke ever since they started making PR videos on it. Grit is something you show, not talk about yourselves. Other people are supposed to notice and point out good qualities. You can't compliment yourself for what you think you are. That's stupid shit only fools do.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

1 hour ago, Dean said:

Watched the presser. Billy doubled down on contracts and clauses. Says it’s a negotiation and he had to give to them. He’ thinks he has them all in good deals. Wow. IMO that won’t age well. It’s exactly why I don’t believe in bill anymore. Getting out negotiated by bottom six guys.  That doesn’t bode well for building a Stanley cup contender. Tampa isn’t signing stamkos till end of year or maybe they use money to go after Nylander. They left themselves flexibility. Yzerman strong armed Larkin. Billy folds to Fred. He could have been humble and said maybe not so smart to give out clauses. Nope. He doubled down on crazy.  Taking the ufa s off market for trade deadline.  Look at what free agents got this year. Nothing like the contracts bill gave out. 

The fact that Kane signed for less than these three is scary bad negotiation. Pius Suter got 1.6/ year with similar points to Foligno. Jeannot only got 2.6M/year for 2 years, throws more hits than Foligno while taking less penalties, is younger and his ceiling was 1 pt below Foligno's. Tarasenko only took 5M on a 1 year deal, he is younger and has 5+ 70 pt seasons under his belt. We gave all three term and NMC's for 4M.

 

Zucc is a good deal and a sizable pay cut and could be argued the NMC tag wasn't awful for a term of two years. Hartman is a questionable deal at best, especially with the NMC. The Foligno deal is a hot bag of used diapers baking in the midday sun without the addition of an NMC. The fact that they even considered tacking an NMC on should be enough to fire Guerin.

[Secord Sucks]

I’m usually an eternal optimist, but I stumbled across this video today (from the off-season when the Rangers were apparently considering Hynes) and now I’m a bit pessimistic about him as the new head coach. From “You’ve got to earn it and he hasn’t,” to “Is he only getting this opportunity because of a close personal relationship (to the GM).” So many similarities to our current situation. Definitely worth a listen. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

4 hours ago, Dean said:

Percentage by round

1st 74%
2nd 34% 
3rd 27%
4th 22%
5th 15%
6th 16%
7th 11%

This is similar to the average that I've seen, meaning, the middle of the road team or 16th and 17th in the league.

So, with the argument of building a team using the 20thish pick in the draft, you would have to hit at a far greater rate than this. Just for assumption's sake, we had 2 1sts in back to back years. We got Lambos, Wallstedt, Ohgren, and Yurov. By these numbers, you'd have 3 of these 4 make it to 100 games just to be average. 

With the rest of the players, you'd expect 1 to make it and if it's the 5th-7th round, typically that guy is a goalie. 

So, you'd need to do better than that. If you hit on all 4 1sts, your 1st in the 3rd year going forward or back a year + 1-2 other guys in each draft, you would have a nucleus that could make a run. There would be luck included in such a thing and your scouting department would need to be spot on. 

In this case, those drafts also came during the pandemic years. We had guys like Lambos, Wallstedt, Peart, Yurov fall. And, on top of that, you have a war where Russian players are discounted heavily. Not everyone is going to make it, but if Hunt comes out of 2020, and Rossi keeps improving, there is your other year. These guys would grow up together and it will be probably easier to keep them together and want to play with each other. Dino also comes from 2020 and if we hit there, you could have 3 years X 3 players from that draft. Throw in Faber who was traded for. 

This is how you build a contender using what we had. It is conceivable that we could be better than average and actually have a couple of stars or better among those picks. Time will tell if it works out, but it is possible, it's just a lot harder to do it this way. 

I happen to be pretty high on Spacek and Petrovsky also, 2 players who are in those drafts with a 15%ish hit rate. A lot of times, these things come in waves, where you get nothing for a few drafts and then all of a sudden hit on 2 in a row. Just because you draft in the 20s doesn't mean you throw in the towel. If you know you're going to draft in the 20s, then you need to spend the money to have a better scouting staff than 25 other teams. It's not hard to draft Bedards when you stink. It's very difficult to do it when you're drafting in the 20s, but not impossible.

[joebou15]

5 hours ago, bisopher said:

Tony's last line:

But history suggests that swapping Evason out for Hynes is neither an upgrade nor more than a superficial disruption of the status quo.

...is fully correct.  And yet it's all GMBG can do, it appears.  At some point in the future Bill's got to be called out on the fact that the answer to every problem is not to "get that player I know from when I was in Pittsburgh ", or in this case, "hire that coach i know from when i was in Pittsburgh ".

There are 30 other teams full of players and coaches in the NHL, but you sure wouldn't know it by looking at Bill's moves.

At some point someone needs to show him that he could have avoided some of this if he wasn't a blustery pile of man trying to show he was the boss and actually managing the roster by prioritizing skill, youth, and speed. Physicality must be there, yes, but it can't be everything and his grit-first mantra flies in the face of what today's NHL is.