Article: The Wild Are Starting To Look Like the Team Bill Guerin Blew Up

[Tony Abbott]

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[Pewterschmidt]

The team is showing little urgency to turn their roster over to their deep prospect pool 

Can we all agree to stop referring to the Wild's deep, can't miss prospect pool until a couple of them begin to show flashes at the NHL level.  If guys like Rossi & Beckman (is this finally the year this can't miss player finally demonstrates flashes at the NHL level, or is this another AHL campaign for him) prove THIS YEAR that they might eventually become middle six NHL'rs then lets talk about the pool.  I remember when Granlund was going to bring us a Cup singlehandedly.  Nice career, but not even close to the hype.  

And if an old Foligno, middle aged Duhaime or a noodle like Mojo is keeping off the NHL roster, you're not going to move the needle if/when you get to the NHL.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Pewterschmidt

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 of those appear to be incorrect to me:

Quote

• Mats Zuccarello: Age-38 season; pending UFA; $4.125M AAV; Full No-Move Clause
• Jared Spurgeon: Age-36 season; one year to UFA; $5.575M AAV; 10-team No-Trade Clause
• Marcus Foligno: Age-34 season; two years to UFA; $5M AAV; Full No-Move Clause
• Jonas Brodin: Age-32 season; two years to UFA; $6M AAV; Zero trade protection
• Freddy Gaudreau: Age-32 season; two years to UFA; $2.1 million; 15-team No-Trade Clause

Spurgeon is at $7.575.

Foligno should be at $4M, I believe.

Guerin has come out looking fairly solid on a lot of his controversial decisions. I would have offered something similar to Zuccarello for 1 year, and would have given Foligno something around $3.75 for 3 years, but I agree it's a risk giving them more years at this stage of their careers.

Hopefully the salary cap going up will make those contracts not too bad in hindsight. They will have a lot of competition at the AHL level to see who can elevate their game and force their way on to the roster while Guerin is here.

[mnfaninnc]

I'm with you, Tony. I was looking forward to the youth movement being next year. To me, Dewar and Duhaime were the ones to resign....and inexpensively. 

I would have resigned Moose, but I would have wanted at least half of this year to see how he played and how his body held up, and around 1/2 the price. Zuccarello it was time to let go of, and Hartsy, as much as I like his game, probably capped out of our system. 

It looks like Kelisha has won this battle. When our average age ticks over the Islanders, we are in trouble! So, when do the graduations start to take affect?

I had thought with the 2 Russians coming over next season that we could start filling roster spots with new, exciting, fast, skilled players. Now it appears that there is no room in the inn. Sometimes being ready and opportunity just don't match up. 

I'd really like to know what the front office is looking for in these guys. If you don't give them an opportunity to climb the ladder, then what opportunity did they really get? A perfect example was putting the current front line together in preseason without letting another combination have a try. 

But, I will have to admit this: Bulking up as a young player needs to be a priority. It is a lot easier then too, as the body is naturally filling out. Guys like Beckman and O'Rourke can't think about how they can compete where they're at in the A, but look to what they have to compete against in the N. For that you need mass, you need strength, you need muscle, you need to be in the gym! 

A lot of our prospects are in other places besides the A, but the guys in Des Moines had better pick it up! They need to win their battles, and win their games, and be statistically relevant, and bury their chances. Apparently, for a scoring wing, 25 goals is not enough down there, you need 40. I expect that the intensity and urgency in Des Moines will be up 3 notches this season!

[Pewterschmidt]

It can not be ignored that Guerin has watched Foligno for 23 playoff games, where he’s only scored one goal and six points.

Jesus, I hadn't even read this far yet.  4X$4M at age 32.  What the what Guerin?  The bloom is off the rose for me with Guerin.  Maybe he pulls this Wild re-boot off but it's looking like it's going to take another 5 YEARS from here, not 2-3.  And that 5 year plan assumes that some of his picks become top 6 ers. Waiting on Rossi and the Russians at this point.   

[mnfaninnc]

9 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

They will have a lot of competition at the AHL level to see who can elevate their game and force their way on to the roster while Guerin is here.

I think Huck hits the word we've all been looking for right on the head. AHL players have got to "force" their way on to the roster. Opportunities will not be given, they will be earned, and when you get that opportunity, you'd better grab hold of it and not let it go! Don't come up with a cup of coffee mentality, you'd better come up with the idea that you're not going back!

Perhaps this is one lesson in being mentally tough? I guess they'd better learn now!

By the way, Heidt had a 7 point weekend in 2 games!

Edited October 2, 2023 by mnfaninnc

[Pewterschmidt]

IMO the shrewd moves that BG gets credit for are:

Middleton

Gustavson (we'll see how he performs in second yr, but all signs are good)

Faber/Yurov TBD  Yurov must pan out because 80+ pts traded for top 4 Dman isn't enough

Parise/Suter dead wood - TBD admire the courage, but this requires an org. to hit homeruns in the draft.  Still too early?  I'd argue the early draft results aren't great

what other Guerin positives am i missing?  I'd give him credit for a culture overhaul, but the Foligno contract makes me think that pendulum has swung too far the other way.  Billy might be drinking his own kool-aid in culture dept

[MNCountryLife]

I have to believe that Guerin does an analysis of all prospects and tries to assess if they will make it to the NHL and when... and Guerin doesn't like what he sees.  Very few, if any, are close to being ready.  Guerin has painted this picture of injecting youth, energy, skill and extreme grit.  He may lose some of his believers if these signings do not pan out.  They do not mirror the image he painted on how these team will be built.

[MrCheatachu]

9 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

The team is showing little urgency to turn their roster over to their deep prospect pool 

Can we all agree to stop referring to the Wild's deep, can't miss prospect pool until a couple of them begin to show flashes at the NHL level.  If guys like Rossi & Beckman (is this finally the year this can't miss player finally demonstrates flashes at the NHL level, or is this another AHL campaign for him) prove THIS YEAR that they might eventually become middle six NHL'rs then lets talk about the pool.  I remember when Granlund was going to bring us a Cup singlehandedly.  Nice career, but not even close to the hype.  

And if an old Foligno, middle aged Duhaime or a noodle like Mojo is keeping off the NHL roster, you're not going to move the needle if/when you get to the NHL.

I cosign this.

I was a bit surprised that we saw moose for 4x4, but the counter point would be how else would you want to be spending that money to replace him? Victor F'ing Rask signed a $4Mx6 contract in 2016 and the wild had him for 3 of those years.  While we might have given him a premium, it's not going to be a boat anchor contract people seem to be yelling about.  We were able to walk away from signing Reaves for 3 years, so at least there's that.

I think part of the problem is the country club fees have us so handcuffed that we are unable to make a splash in free agency and the only thing to look forward to is the top-rated prospect pool.

The tampa bay mantra seems to be 'we'll trade 4 first round picks for Tanner Jeannot because he's the player we need right now, not maybe a guy who might have an impact in 3-4 years'

I wish the Wild's cap situation allowed them to get more young guys up, but right now Foligno is more of a known entity and important to the teams success than the impact that a Walker/Beckman/etc is going to have, full stop.

If it's any solace, just remind yourselves Dallas still has 2 more seasons of Ryan Suter at $3.65M/yr

[MNCountryLife]

6 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

what other Guerin positives am i missing?

IMO:  Accountability.  When he kicked out Suter/Parise/Boudreau he was making it very clear of the following. 

1)  BG is in control

2)  100% effort or get out.

3)  You will play a very specific type of hockey or get out.

4)  If you can't repeat the good habits get out.

He has awarded players that follow these rules and he has kicked players out or sat them if they have not obeyed those rules.  The players obviously respect this no-nonsense approach and it shows on the ice.

[MrCheatachu]

21 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Faber/Yurov TBD  Yurov must pan out because 80+ pts traded for top 4 Dman isn't enough

Disagree, we didnt have the cap to fit Fifi, and if we let him walk for nothing it would have been far worse.   Fifi was an RFA when this trade was made, and when you look at how the roster would have had to have been blown up to fit Fifi's $7.9 x 7 years with the roster as tight as it is, where would you have done it?  You're moving out at least 3 players off our current strapped roster.

[Luke Sims]

*Wild fans to Bill Guerin rn*

[Tony Abbott]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

The team is showing little urgency to turn their roster over to their deep prospect pool 

Can we all agree to stop referring to the Wild's deep, can't miss prospect pool until a couple of them begin to show flashes at the NHL level.  If guys like Rossi & Beckman (is this finally the year this can't miss player finally demonstrates flashes at the NHL level, or is this another AHL campaign for him) prove THIS YEAR that they might eventually become middle six NHL'rs then lets talk about the pool.  I remember when Granlund was going to bring us a Cup singlehandedly.  Nice career, but not even close to the hype.  

And if an old Foligno, middle aged Duhaime or a noodle like Mojo is keeping off the NHL roster, you're not going to move the needle if/when you get to the NHL.

Boldy

Faber

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

IMO the shrewd moves that BG gets credit for are:

Middleton

Gustavson (we'll see how he performs in second yr, but all signs are good)

Faber/Yurov TBD  Yurov must pan out because 80+ pts traded for top 4 Dman isn't enough

Parise/Suter dead wood - TBD admire the courage, but this requires an org. to hit homeruns in the draft.  Still too early?  I'd argue the early draft results aren't great

what other Guerin positives am i missing?  I'd give him credit for a culture overhaul, but the Foligno contract makes me think that pendulum has swung too far the other way.  Billy might be drinking his own kool-aid in culture dept

One HUGE one.....he was the only GM to sign KK out of Russia and resign KK long term....that's a big GET! Not that I'm siding with BG on this Moose move.

[Pewterschmidt]

48 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

Disagree, we didnt have the cap to fit Fifi, and if we let him walk for nothing it would have been far worse.   Fifi was an RFA when this trade was made, and when you look at how the roster would have had to have been blown up to fit Fifi's $7.9 x 7 years with the roster as tight as it is, where would you have done it?  You're moving out at least 3 players off our current strapped roster.

I don't disagree that Fiala had to be traded.  80+ pt players are rare, so if you trade him you need a commensurate return.  Again Yurov has to pan out (aka middle 6) for us to get fair value in this trade.  And this assumes Faber is top 4, which looks to be the case

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Since nobody commented when I dropped this information the other day in an older thread, I'm going to bring it back.

Among Wild regulars who played in the 2019-2022 seasons, only Kaprizov, Boldy, and Fiala scored goals at a higher pace than Foligno 5v5, who was at .99 goals per 60. Hartman was also at .99 in that time period. Only Boldy and Kaprizov were above that pace last season.

The injured version of Foligno last season wasn't playing all that well in the offensive end, but he is in great shape now and it wouldn't be shocking to see him and Gaudreau up near 20 goals if they can play 80+ games. If Rossi can get these guys pucks in dangerous areas, that line could do some scoring.

[Pewterschmidt]

12 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

Boldy

Faber

Agree on Faber as a stud prospect, but still not enough for Fiala.  Need to see Yurov make it

Boldy is not a prospect anymore, but agree he's on his way to stud-dom.  Thank you Paul Fenton.

[Pewterschmidt]

7 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

One HUGE one.....he was the only GM to sign KK out of Russia and resign KK long term....that's a big GET! Not that I'm siding with BG on this Moose move.

97 was coming to NHL someday one way or the other (thank you Fletcher). BG deserves credit for the 5 year extension.

[Pewterschmidt]

4 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Since nobody commented when I dropped this information the other day in an older thread, I'm going to bring it back.

Among Wild regulars who played in the 2019-2022 seasons, only Kaprizov, Boldy, and Fiala scored goals at a higher pace than Foligno 5v5, who was at .99 goals per 60. Hartman was also at .99 in that time period. Only Boldy and Kaprizov were above that pace last season.

The injured version of Foligno last season wasn't playing all that well in the offensive end, but he is in great shape now and it wouldn't be shocking to see him and Gaudreau up near 20 goals if they can play 80+ games. If Rossi can get these guys pucks in dangerous areas, that line could do some scoring.

I'll assume this Foligno stat is from the lightning in a bottle GREEF season, where even Greenway contributed.  I'll gladly eat crow is Foligno demontrates that form again.

[vonlonster67]

I started the "IBGIT" theme and have backed him on the "Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, signings/acquisitions that were awesome, Hartzy Ek, Middy, Boldy, the questionable, but could be legitimized such as signing Goose to $5M and then the $2M x 2, and resigning Flower which again was not much else to do with our cap hits and depth.

I, however, am not behind or do I support this "Old Guy" trend such as Tony pointed out. I'm not that blind to the BG spell and will call out bullshit when I see it. This is that to the 100% and if he continues down this path and blocks or trades away all our talent to get a shot, I'll call for his head just as I would anyone else. Same goes for his average coach who hasn't seen a playoff win.

[vonlonster67]

5 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

97 was coming to NHL someday one way or the other (thank you Fletcher). BG deserves credit for the 5 year extension.

You need to do some research, because he may have been coming, but it wasn't necessarily in a Minny sweater! BG was the only one he would even meet with in person in Russia.

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

IMO:  Accountability.  When he kicked out Suter/Parise/Boudreau he was making it very clear of the following. 

1)  BG is in control

2)  100% effort or get out.

3)  You will play a very specific type of hockey or get out.

4)  If you can't repeat the good habits get out.

He has awarded players that follow these rules and he has kicked players out or sat them if they have not obeyed those rules.  The players obviously respect this no-nonsense approach and it shows on the ice.

Love all that Goose and you are factual on all of it and I SUPPORT that, now its time for BG to make sense of this direction or loose the fan's backing when we say "Get Out"!

BG can be a little arrogant in his perception and doesn't take to criticism, so I hope he will have that same honest approach when things are good, when things turn bad with this new handicap for 3-4 years.

[MrCheatachu]

8 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

You need to do some research, because he may have been coming, but it wasn't necessarily in a Minny sweater! BG was the only one he would even meet with in person in Russia.

He met with Fenton https://www.nhl.com/wild/news/fenton-russia-kaprizov-110218-301555846

Paul Fenton was also the one who offered Vegas the choice of Tuch, Greenway or Kaprizov for them to select Haula so....

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

The team is showing little urgency to turn their roster over to their deep prospect pool 

Can we all agree to stop referring to the Wild's deep, can't miss prospect pool until a couple of them begin to show flashes at the NHL level.  If guys like Rossi & Beckman (is this finally the year this can't miss player finally demonstrates flashes at the NHL level, or is this another AHL campaign for him) prove THIS YEAR that they might eventually become middle six NHL'rs then lets talk about the pool.  I remember when Granlund was going to bring us a Cup singlehandedly.  Nice career, but not even close to the hype.  

And if an old Foligno, middle aged Duhaime or a noodle like Mojo is keeping off the NHL roster, you're not going to move the needle if/when you get to the NHL.

The deep comes next year on offense and you cant get any deeper on "D" than this year in IA.

Deep doesn't include Beckman at an overachieving 3rd round pick that flashed. Talent is Rossi, Walker, Faber.

We're a year away from seeing/showing anything to be calling for that, same with goaltending in Wallstedt.

[vonlonster67]

3 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

He met with Fenton https://www.nhl.com/wild/news/fenton-russia-kaprizov-110218-301555846

Paul Fenton was also the one who offered Vegas the choice of Tuch, Greenway or Kaprizov for them to select Haula so....

The back story on that was it was not an in person meeting but a meeting with his agent. Nothing like the sit down BG had. KK had no time for Fenton and that came out after the trip.