Article: Filip Gustavsson Can Take Control Of Minnesota's Net In 2023-24

[Justin Hein]

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[vonlonster67]

All great points, but when it comes to goalies it the roll of the dice. Nothing is ever guaranteed and you never know from year to next unless your name is Vasilevskiy. I look at Vegas going through the goalie mill last year only surviving because of a little goalie luck, the talent in front of their net and the scoring at the other end.

I don't blame Gus for his play in Ottawa as their "D" was obviously a liability for him and bottom line with all team consistency is the goalie's best friend. BG kept his notes and his Penguin connection paid off for us again with Gus.

I believe our "D" will also have a little transition and adjustments for Gus this year and I hope its a two way relationship, some night he's covering them and other nights they are covering him. I'm still concerned about his physical shape in goal for a season where he's starting 45-50+ games. I don't know that Flower is gonna be our pick me up this year. He's gonna get his 8-10 games for the record and be a driving force for the mental survival of Gus on the bench and during those tough games and stretches.

Basically, when it comes down to it this whole year is a Vegas odd's dilemma. We could be good if all the pieces fall together and we could be facing disaster if they all slide off the cliff. 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

[Justin Hein]

10 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

All great points, but when it comes to goalies it the roll of the dice. Nothing is ever guaranteed and you never know from year to next unless your name is Vasilevskiy.

I agree that it's tough to project goaltending talent, but it's important to remember that it can be done -- we just aren't very good at it yet. I forget where I saw it, but I saw somebody say that hockey currently tends to treat goaltending as "something that happens to players." That really changed my thinking about the position. 

Writing this made me feel much better about Gus's "one-off" season, because he's had such good professional seasons in the SHL already. I think this context is important in evaluating his play and projecting it into the future. 

[Luke Sims]

May the goaltending gods be merciful...

[Justin Hein]

8 minutes ago, Luke Sims said:

May the goaltending gods be merciful...

Filip IS the goaltending god. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Quote

Gus Bus may be so dominant that the Wild will have no choice but to make him the true starter by January.

Thought that happened in January of 2023.  Gus was 1A after January last year, playing more games than Fleury the latter half of last season, then starting all but 1 playoff game.

It would be shocking if Gus did not continue to get the majority of starts. Definitely expect Fleury to be getting one of each back-to-back, and likely 1 out of every 3 games, assuming he's healthy, but Gus likely is up at 45-52 starts if he can remain healthy all season.

48+ starts for Gustavsson would not be a surprise this season, assuming he doesn't fall off significantly. If Fleury performs at a higher level this year, he may still get more than 35 starts, but possible he'll be down closer to 30.

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Thought that happened in January of 2023.  Gus was 1A after January last year, playing more games than Fleury the latter half of last season, then starting all but 1 playoff game.

It would be shocking if Gus did not continue to get the majority of starts.

Yeah this is the key -- I think he's already the 1A but I think it'll become a true starter/backup situation, where you start Gus anytime he's ready to go and only use Fleury to spell him. Splitting hairs a bit but still an important distinction in my eyes. 

I just didn't want to phrase is as "Fleury is going to be a backup" out of respect for his career. 

[MNCountryLife]

Interesting stats on Gus.  I wonder if Gus was playing late night video games that caused his low percentage.  

Gus has the tools to be a solid 1G.  The D in front of him actually concerns me more.  Our top 2 pairings from last year were very solid and very goalie friendly.  Losing Dumba leaves the D in a bit of limbo... which could have a big effect on Gus.  Our remaining 4 D of Merrill, Alex, Faber and Addy have some question marks next to each of them.  Could probably add Hunt to that list.  We will need a lot from those bottom 4/5 guys to stay a goalie friendly team.

[vonlonster67]

3 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

Filip IS the goaltending god. 

Don't bet the ranch on it, last year was good, but in the beginning of the year he had a lot of cupcake matchups which produced the first half of his stat line.

Where will he be when he has to do the heavy lifting Flower had before Gus took over some of the second half?

I think after his rough start, Flower gave him some relief to get his confidence and relax. Now he's the man, hope he's ready.

 

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, Justin Hein said:

Yeah this is the key -- I think he's already the 1A but I think it'll become a true starter/backup situation, where you start Gus anytime he's ready to go and only use Fleury to spell him. Splitting hairs a bit but still an important distinction in my eyes. 

I just didn't want to phrase is as "Fleury is going to be a backup" out of respect for his career. 

Knowing DE and his coaching style, nothing is a given to say who 1A/1B is. Who thought DE would put Flower in a critical game 2 in Dallas.

It also sounds like BG is not given Gus any nods either as 1A until he's clear cut. Jan. 1 will see if he rises up or levels off or down.

[Justin Hein]

41 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

Knowing DE and his coaching style, nothing is a given to say who 1A/1B is. Who thought DE would put Flower in a critical game 2 in Dallas.

It also sounds like BG is not given Gus any nods either as 1A until he's clear cut. Jan. 1 will see if he rises up or levels off or down.

Remember that many of these BG quotes on Gus were given with his impending contract situation in mind. He also has to keep Fleury and his agent happy. That's why I included the quotes from Chabot -- for my money, a goaltending coach is more likely to give us some deeper insight on the goalies. 

[Justin Hein]

47 minutes ago, vonlonster67 said:

Don't bet the ranch on it, last year was good, but in the beginning of the year he had a lot of cupcake matchups which produced the first half of his stat line.

Where will he be when he has to do the heavy lifting Flower had before Gus took over some of the second half?

I think after his rough start, Flower gave him some relief to get his confidence and relax. Now he's the man, hope he's ready.

 

Keep a close eye on the analytics this year -- they do a good job adjusting for shot quality in a way which sv% does not. MoneyPuck.com is a great resource for free goaltending analytics. Hit me on twitter if you ever have questions or insights of your own!

[vonlonster67]

1 minute ago, Justin Hein said:

Remember that many of these BG quotes on Gus were given with his impending contract situation in mind. He also has to keep Fleury and his agent happy. That's why I included the quotes from Chabot -- for my money, a goaltending coach is more likely to give us some deeper insight on the goalies. 

 

3 minutes ago, Justin Hein said:

Keep a close eye on the analytics this year -- they do a good job adjusting for shot quality in a way which sv% does not. MoneyPuck.com is a great resource for free goaltending analytics. Hit me on twitter if you ever have questions or insights of your own!

Will check that out..Thx!

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, vonlonster67 said:

Don't bet the ranch on it, last year was good, but in the beginning of the year he had a lot of cupcake matchups which produced the first half of his stat line.

Where will he be when he has to do the heavy lifting Flower had before Gus took over some of the second half?

I think after his rough start, Flower gave him some relief to get his confidence and relax. Now he's the man, hope he's ready.

 

I think this is a pretty easy one to answer: Goose2 was traded just after the draft, but had very limited time to adjust to the new team. Sometimes, you just have to play through it. 

Being used to what the Ottawa D was going to do, if you look a certain way, or don't get used to where to put your rebounds, it takes time to gel. He also had a couple of things to work on with Chabot, 1 of which was not staying too far in the net. 

The other thing I saw was his tracking of pucks, most importantly, the long range no danger shots seemed to surprise him early on. However, he got used to it. He began to trust his D, and they started to work together.

I thought that in January, Fleury got nicked up a bit forcing Goose2 into a series of starts. The extra worked helped him get in a groove. 

Justin pointed out the change in continents being important, and for many guys, they can get homesick and feel like they don't really fit in. A quote from Goose2 kind of revealed where he was at (paraphrased): He thought last year would be his final year in North America and he would head home to Sweden for the rest of his career. 

The other thing is that Swedish players have a system of puck control which is very important to them, much more important than taking bad angle shots. We saw the same thing when The Wall came over, his calling card was being able to read the play so well, but it didn't transition right away. Simply put, The Wall wasn't ready for the long sharp angle shot to come in and it got through. I think this explains more of what happened to Goose2 once the opponents got some tape on him (and he was backed into his goal more than he should have been). 

What I like is that he and The Wall trained in Lulea. They have similar styles. They are both quiet goalies. I think they'll be a superior tandem together. Based upon Goose2's scouting report, there is no doubt he can be a #1G. He was the top Euro goalie taken that year. 

I also really liked the quote from Bader. Really, that is good advice! Goalies are a little weird and so much of it is based upon confidence. But seeing them in D1 or D2 is a really good thought, especially since they won't be around until about 24-25 years old. 

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I think this is a pretty easy one to answer: Goose2 was traded just after the draft, but had very limited time to adjust to the new team. Sometimes, you just have to play through it. 

Being used to what the Ottawa D was going to do, if you look a certain way, or don't get used to where to put your rebounds, it takes time to gel. He also had a couple of things to work on with Chabot, 1 of which was not staying too far in the net. 

The other thing I saw was his tracking of pucks, most importantly, the long range no danger shots seemed to surprise him early on. However, he got used to it. He began to trust his D, and they started to work together.

I thought that in January, Fleury got nicked up a bit forcing Goose2 into a series of starts. The extra worked helped him get in a groove. 

Justin pointed out the change in continents being important, and for many guys, they can get homesick and feel like they don't really fit in. A quote from Goose2 kind of revealed where he was at (paraphrased): He thought last year would be his final year in North America and he would head home to Sweden for the rest of his career. 

The other thing is that Swedish players have a system of puck control which is very important to them, much more important than taking bad angle shots. We saw the same thing when The Wall came over, his calling card was being able to read the play so well, but it didn't transition right away. Simply put, The Wall wasn't ready for the long sharp angle shot to come in and it got through. I think this explains more of what happened to Goose2 once the opponents got some tape on him (and he was backed into his goal more than he should have been). 

What I like is that he and The Wall trained in Lulea. They have similar styles. They are both quiet goalies. I think they'll be a superior tandem together. Based upon Goose2's scouting report, there is no doubt he can be a #1G. He was the top Euro goalie taken that year. 

I also really liked the quote from Bader. Really, that is good advice! Goalies are a little weird and so much of it is based upon confidence. But seeing them in D1 or D2 is a really good thought, especially since they won't be around until about 24-25 years old. 

Interesting fact Wallsted took over the heavy lifting in Sweden once Gus left for North America.  We are so lucky to put them together in our system!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

18 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

last year was good, but in the beginning of the year he had a lot of cupcake matchups which produced the first half of his stat line.

From January to the end of the season, he had a .937 save percentage. If you remove the "cupcake" schedule from the beginning of the year, he looks better.

He was at .914 through November last year.

February was his busiest month and he had a .946 save percentage there. I think more work will be good for him. I'm not saying he will be over a .930 save percentage again, but something around .920 would be a nice year.

[vonlonster67]

23 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

From January to the end of the season, he had a .937 save percentage. If you remove the "cupcake" schedule from the beginning of the year, he looks better.

He was at .914 through November last year.

February was his busiest month and he had a .946 save percentage there. I think more work will be good for him. I'm not saying he will be over a .930 save percentage again, but something around .920 would be a nice year.

Gus is the man this year and with Flower taking a notable step back publicly, he's gonna get the work. He'll need to get his game face on as it will only be another year and Wallstedt will be pushing the envelope for some of those starts.

Life, talent and skill as a goalie in MN is about to be elevated by one, or the other, or both.