Article: Calen Addison And the Wild Need Each Other

[Tony Abbott]

View full article

[Killer Coastie]

If Addy wants to keep playing this game, he'll be on the outside watching another prospective D-man get an opportunity. Plenty of minimum wage defenseman that will give anything to seize the opportunity. Addy has zero leverage and should be happy to be paid to play in the NHL. If he wants to make more money, show it on the ice. Make the Wild pay you because you're irreplaceable.

[Luke Sims]

Addison's game is not confusing. The Wild know what his strengths and weaknesses are. Addison is a good contributor and the best option the Wild have for the powerplay quarterback and while he struggles a bit on defense in his own zone, the benefits he provides on the powerplay outweigh the costs of his defensive lapses. 

[mnfaninnc]

26 minutes ago, Luke Sims said:

Addison's game is not confusing. The Wild know what his strengths and weaknesses are. Addison is a good contributor and the best option the Wild have for the powerplay quarterback and while he struggles a bit on defense in his own zone, the benefits he provides on the powerplay outweigh the costs of his defensive lapses. 

I think this statement is where the biggest disagreement between the fanbase is. You are absolutely correct when the Wild know his strengths and weaknesses. However, it's the conclusion that we disagree on: "The benefits on the powerplay outweigh the costs of his defensive lapses."

I am in the camp that does not believe this. When I see our PP go stagnant at the end of last year, I don't see it as a Klingberg/Spurgeon ineptitude, I see it as a Kaprizov/Ek missing. We don't know for sure, but I would say that Addison wouldn't have done much better in this scenario. 

I am truly of the opinion that Addison is not doing the Wild any favors by signing his QO. Evolving Hockey always inflates their prices, the model is fun to check into, but is always high. The fact is that Addison had a decent rookie campaign and he is coming into his sophomore season. He didn't knock the hockey world dead with his play, so, $800k is about what he's worth to the team. The message is clear: Do you want more money? Play better.

Here is where Addison really hurts himself, if he allows for the cavalry behind him to impress in camp while he's not there. He could easily find himself on the shelf with no real leverage whatsoever. Could someone like Hunt come in and capture his spot? Certainly! He was in the doghouse to end the year. Holding out is not the way to get out of the doghouse, there are no back doors in that house. Holding out is a sure fire way for other interested teams to circle like vultures. But, even if he asks for a trade, he's not getting much at that point. If Shooter becomes frustrated, he'll simply jettison him to an AZ team for a 2nd, and we'll see just how much fun Addison has there.

The fact is, we can find a PP QB somewhere else. It usually is, but doesn't even need to be a defenseman. Granny ran it from the sideboards for some years. I think if you're Addison, at this point, you want to piss off the least amount of people you can. You sign your deal, keep your head down, work hard at your weaknesses, and play better. That's the only way out of the doghouse.

And, am I seeing this from the GM perspective? I think so. Shooter made it very clear that there was a pecking order in resigning players. It's no accident that Addison's priority was dead last. If you want respect, play better. And if you make a terrible play, bust your butt to get back and break it up!

[vonlonster67]

All good and lengthy points above.

Bottom line, BG has a plan and a back up plan to that one or we would have already seen it play out in a trade of Merrill which further depletes us for experienced D.

I don't see us going outside the organization at this point 3 weeks before camp.

Our PP1 has everything to do with Addison and what we saw in the end of the season was impacted by injuries and his immaturity and reaction to being coached.

New PP coach, New PP system, New PP plan! 

"IBGIT"

[MNCountryLife]

Right now money matters to the Wild.  Addison is probably worth around that $1M AAV right now.  He could be a very good player in a couple more years under his belt.  But we need him to take less or have him traded and call Hunt or someone else up instead.  Would be a bummer to have him walk but not having the dollars to call players up when needed could be worse.

Edited September 1, 2023 by MNCountryLife

[vonlonster67]

33 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Right now money matters to the Wild.  Addison is probably worth around that $1M AAV right now.  He could be a very good player in a couple more years under his belt.  But we need him to take less or have him traded and call Hunt or someone else up instead.  Would be a bummer to have him walk but not having the dollars to call players up when needed could be worse.

Really looking forward to camp to see what Hunt looks like. Right now are so many unknowns for us.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, vonlonster67 said:

Our PP1 has everything to do with Addison and what we saw in the end of the season was impacted by injuries and his immaturity and reaction to being coached.

Addison might be slightly better than Spurgeon on the PP, but the PP1 has everything to do with healthy KK97, Boldy, Zuccarello and JEE. The defenseman on it is unlikely to make a major difference as long as those guys are healthy. Addison was put in an ideal situation and did well early on the offensive end, but results seemed to diminish as the season progressed.

Nearly all of Addison's assists last year were simple passes to a skilled player that made something out of a play that Addison had little to do with. There were maybe a handful of points/passes that were different than any other D man would make.

His defense gave back more than a handful of points, which was partly demonstrated by his team leading -17 in plus/minus. Hunt, Lambos, and Spacek may not be far off from replacing him. I'm not certain that Faber wouldn't be better as the PP QB.

Addison should be very happy if he can get back into the same situation he had last season, and he might even make more out of his opportunity this year.

[vonlonster67]

4 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Addison might be slightly better than Spurgeon on the PP, but the PP1 has everything to do with healthy KK97, Boldy, Zuccarello and JEE. The defenseman on it is unlikely to make a major difference as long as those guys are healthy. Addison was put in an ideal situation and did well early on the offensive end, but results seemed to diminish as the season progressed.

Nearly all of Addison's assists last year were simple passes to a skilled player that made something out of a play that Addison had little to do with. There were maybe a handful of points/passes that were different than any other D man would make.

His defense gave back more than a handful of points, which was partly demonstrated by his team leading -17 in plus/minus. Hunt, Lambos, and Spacek may not be far off from replacing him. I'm not certain that Faber wouldn't be better as the PP QB.

Addison should be very happy if he can get back into the same situation he had last season, and he might even make more out of his opportunity this year.

Huck. I thought about Faber first too and the others. I worry about putting too much on his plate, but camp will tell us more. Spacek could surprise us too.

I never count Faber out of anything. 

[Sviginak]

I was watching the Wild videos on nhl dot com slash wild and there was one about the trade deadline last season. Klingon was being discussed and Anaheim wanted more than we wanted to give. Billy’s advisors said no way, we don’t need the guy. Calls went back and forth until Anaheim relented and gave us Klingon for what we offered. We did play Klingon more than I thought he deserved but it probably didn’t matter, as was noted it was our injured forwards that hurt the PP. I think the front office and Addy both know how this is going to end; most likely BG will get his way more so than Addy.

[Up North Guy]

4 hours ago, Sviginak said:

I think the front office and Addy both know how this is going to end; most likely BG will get his way more so than Addy.

I am not sure Addy does understand. If he did the contract would be signed. He is not in a position to push BG into a corner. His actions and comments last year tell me that he thinks more of himself than others think of him as a player. That is a very bad position to pout ones self into.

[mnfaninnc]

38 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

I am not sure Addy does understand. If he did the contract would be signed. He is not in a position to push BG into a corner. His actions and comments last year tell me that he thinks more of himself than others think of him as a player. That is a very bad position to pout ones self into.

Well, his agent certainly learned how to approach Shooter and not try and get headlines through the media. We all know how that turned out for Talbot. 

If this is all about Addy thinking he's a better player than what he's being offered, he will quickly be passed on the depth chart if he doesn't show up. There is a "thin ice" sign directly next to his career. The thing is, he has few options, probably the most lucrative is heading to the K for awhile. But, in doing so, I'm sure they will be happy to put up with his defense 😜.

As the lead in the article began, the Wild and Addison need each other. But, which one needs the other more? I'd suggest that Addison needs the Wild more. 

[Sviginak]

We will see shortly what happens. I hope the boys come to an agreement soon, and if they don’t, we get to see a young gun or two! 

[Sviginak]

Up North Guy; where did you hear that Addy was trying to push BG into a corner? A lot has been made of the one time Addy made a comment to the effect he was going to keep playing his game and now I keep hearing about his bad attitude in the comment section of many articles. Did I miss something? Addy will sign or be traded; I don’t think there are ulterior motives on one side or the other. 

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, Sviginak said:

Up North Guy; where did you hear that Addy was trying to push BG into a corner? A lot has been made of the one time Addy made a comment to the effect he was going to keep playing his game and now I keep hearing about his bad attitude in the comment section of many articles. Did I miss something? Addy will sign or be traded; I don’t think there are ulterior motives on one side or the other. 

It is mostly speculation by what we have seen in observations and Russo's takes being close to the team. Spurgeon was asked during the turbulence on Addy's play and being benched when Addy was having problems if he ever had looked to him for advice. Spurgeon acknowledged he hadn't and he pretty much keeps to himself. 

DE and BG were both asked about how Addy responded to advice and then again when he was benched. Each time neither elaborated so it was a case of listening to what they weren't saying. With other players, say Dumba, and the question was asked they commented about the reception or measures he took. With Addy, no comment of anything on how he responded, what he was doing or how he was working with the vets.

Same thing with Addy during interviews, it was never about what he was doing to get better, but almost a stonewall of the questions. He never took ownership of his mistakes and acknowledged a problem, just general speak and ignoring question.

It all makes sense.  

[Sviginak]

Goddammit BG!! You got one thing left to do before we start playing hockey, so let’s get it done (in the next two weeks). 🙂

[joebou15]

18 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

The defenseman on it is unlikely to make a major difference as long as those guys are healthy.

I think it does make a difference. Look back at the Ryan Suter years. He'd often get the puck, hold on to it, skate to the dasher boards, either dump it in deep or let go a weak wrister that got blocked. 

To have a player at the point that makes quick, decisive plays to get the puck to all those players you mentioned in positions where they can make a play with it does make a difference.

No idea what the stats bear out, but it also makes difference when the defenseman at the point can get his shot through to the net for a hulking JEEK to tap home a rebound. 

I see Addison being able to these 2 very important things very well while on the PP. And I believe this team can ill-afford to have a middling PP with the kind of talent that's on the top unit. He's the only one at the blue line that has showed any sort of real urgency to make plays that end in scoring chances before a minute has ticked off the penalty clock. He is a huge asset in that way.

I also feel like Jon Merrill did the kid absolutely no favors on defense. Which only exacerbated Addison's weaknesses. 

Idk, I don't think what he's asking for is that outlandish. Does he have learning and development to do? Absolutely. And he can only do that with ice time, practice, and some patience. Last season was his first time with any real significant time in the NHL. To expect him to be a fully-ripened prospect in 32 games is not a reasonable expectation. And he's only 23. He's still young. I don't understand pulling the plug on a kid that shows he can offer help in a very important, impactful place on the ice.

 

Not to mention, this projection and conjecture about his attitude is all just that. No one really knows how he is taking any of this or acting in the locker room. And if he comes off a little cocksure, I mean, that's just pro athletes. 

 

[joebou15]

10 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

It is mostly speculation by what we have seen in observations and Russo's takes being close to the team. Spurgeon was asked during the turbulence on Addy's play and being benched when Addy was having problems if he ever had looked to him for advice. Spurgeon acknowledged he hadn't and he pretty much keeps to himself. 

DE and BG were both asked about how Addy responded to advice and then again when he was benched. Each time neither elaborated so it was a case of listening to what they weren't saying. With other players, say Dumba, and the question was asked they commented about the reception or measures he took. With Addy, no comment of anything on how he responded, what he was doing or how he was working with the vets.

Same thing with Addy during interviews, it was never about what he was doing to get better, but almost a stonewall of the questions. He never took ownership of his mistakes and acknowledged a problem, just general speak and ignoring question.

It all makes sense.  

You're projecting here. 

[vonlonster67]

2 minutes ago, joebou15 said:

You're projecting here. 

Its been projected by every local media talking head for months. I'm just recounting what I heard and clearly saw with my own eyes. 

It doesn't mean things haven't been repaired or that it can't be fixed.  He's still a young kid.

[Sviginak]

So, mostly speculating on projections. Got it!

[vonlonster67]

2 hours ago, Sviginak said:

So, mostly speculating on projections. Got it!

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by vonlonster67

[Tony Abbott]

On 9/1/2023 at 4:33 PM, mnfaninnc said:

I am truly of the opinion that Addison is not doing the Wild any favors by signing his QO. Evolving Hockey always inflates their prices, the model is fun to check into, but is always high.

You keep insisting this, but they always post their numbers in comparison to the contracts they actually get. Turns out, they do all right. Look forward to your data showing the opposite. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

11 hours ago, joebou15 said:

I also feel like Jon Merrill did the kid absolutely no favors on defense. Which only exacerbated Addison's weaknesses. 

Jon Merrill was only -2 on the year.  Given that Addison was -17, I suspect that Merrill was on the positive side of the ledger when Addison wasn't his partner. The Wild didn't do Merrill any favors by pairing him with Addison!

Merrill is a mediocre 3rd pairing defenseman. Addison is far below average as a defenseman. His only skill that's helpful is his PP ability and that's somewhat overhyped because of the other changes made to how the PP units were setup compared to prior years, and the skill of those surrounding Addison--notice that his scoring doesn't hold up even strength.

I'm not suggesting that Addison isn't above average running the PP, but I'm also saying he isn't elite. He might be slightly above average with a few other Wild players who are average behind him.

It made sense to use Addison to run the PP primarily because it keeps the top 4 D-men fresh for even strength and PK minutes, but Addison was probably the worst defenseman they put on the ice even strength--the save percentage with him on ice was far lower than with any other regular skater.

Addison has not held up doing the important things his position generally requires, like skating hard to get back on defense when the puck is behind you. I'm skeptical that he'll become adequate on D, but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve more opportunities.

[vonlonster67]

3 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Nearly all of Addison's assists last year were simple passes to a skilled player that made something out of a play that Addison had little to do with. There were maybe a handful of points/passes that were different than any other D man would make.

You mentioned this in a previous post? Simple passes and little to do with? Doubtful,  that's called vision, something that couldn't get done by Klingberg or Spurgeon as our PP1 tanked.

I think you diminished his skills to see, react, place the puck and not pass the puck around the point. His action from the blue line created opportunity like no other we had to offer, so hardly simple passes that were no different than other D men would make that we don't have.

[mnfaninnc]

12 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

You keep insisting this, but they always post their numbers in comparison to the contracts they actually get. Turns out, they do all right. Look forward to your data showing the opposite. 

Scanning through Evolving Hockey's X feed (I am not an X member and since they changed their policy on looking up X people, it's all over the place and I don't get to check in on Russo either) there were 3 contracts and estimates that I found. They were spot on with Teddy Blueger, and significantly off on Bryan Rust and Jeff Petry. 

In both of the off scenarios, Evolving Hockey had inflated values for both players. They had a lot of fancy charts and data on players, but their predictions always seem to be over what was actually signed for, specifically the top echelon players. 

To me, I find their models to be unreliable, but, checking in with them can be useful just like checking your house on realtor.com or zillow.com. There's a ballpark number there that gives you a general look on what the player is worth. I think in a flat cap era, their data never took into account how tight teams were against the cap, and only took into account a player's statistics (both normal and fancy) to get a value where only a team like AZ could sign the player for that. 

I also find that their models are skewed towards certain statistics while discounting some of the "warts" statistics. So, for a test Tony, starting with the Boldy resigning, what were the numbers Evolving Hockey had on our guys and what did they actually sign for? Unfortunately, to find this out, it looked like I needed a subscription to the site. 

With the Wild being in cap purgatory, perhaps our guys aren't the best to look at? Perhaps another team would be better? We wouldn't have an emotional tie with any of those players either, which might make it a little more subjective.