Article: Does Auston Matthews Set the Market For Kirill Kaprizov's Next Deal?

[Tony Abbott]

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[Velgey]

Quote

The Wild need Kaprizov as much as the Leafs need Matthews.

That is the crux of the issue. All visions of a Minnesota Wild that is actually in contention for the Stanley Cup depend on KK remaining with the team. As good as Boldy, JEE, Gustavson, Wallstedt, and the exciting prospects may be, this team has a hard ceiling below championship-level without KK (or another true superstar).

[Cole_Train]

Will KK want to stay in Minnesota? Money or not will be the multi million dollar question though. Players of his caliber will always get paid so will he value being here. Does he see a winning future here and can he properly market himself here? Many athletes like him make good side money with sponsors, endorsements and advertising. Does Minnesota offer those other intangibles? I sure as hell hope so. 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Cole_Train

[bisopher]

My guess is he gets $15MM/yr, which would be his current salary  + less than half of our current cap penalty if you want to look at it that way.  If he completes his current contract and it's summer 2026 when the new contract kicks in, he gets that easily.

[MrCheatachu]

2 hours ago, Velgey said:

That is the crux of the issue. All visions of a Minnesota Wild that is actually in contention for the Stanley Cup depend on KK remaining with the team. As good as Boldy, JEE, Gustavson, Wallstedt, and the exciting prospects may be, this team has a hard ceiling below championship-level without KK (or another true superstar).

Just look at how many cups Matthews has brought to Toronto, or McDavid has brought to Edmonton.

It seems that teams that are going deep into the playoffs recently are built with more distributed talent across all lines...look at how TBL/VGK are built.  What's better, 3 players making $8M or 2 players making $12M?

[vonlonster67]

I hope this isn't the first time all Wild fans have pondered this.

This is now closer to reality than we would like and sooner than later now that the Matthew's contract is done.

I believe biospher's estimate of $15 average is right on the money making him the next highest paid player.

Do the Wild have a choice or are they already planning that party based on everything. Player movement, the salary cap strategy, the young Russian influx. I'd say it's a no brainer and part of the long term plan.

So with that settled, does KK want to be here. The answer is complicated to a point. Minnesota is exactly the physical location KK would chose based on where he's from and what he's shown. He's not a big city, big media player or need the limelight or even care. The most important piece is he wants to win...playoff games and Stanley Cup games. Next, he needs a surrounding cast. Finally, get paid and have a coach and GM he trusts to get him there.

So you see the answers are in the context and the planning has begun and is going so far as planned. 

This talk about bringing in a true 1C for KK is a huge talking point right now. We all can dream about who, but we better consider one HUGE factor when we spend all this alleged salary cap pie in the coming years.  Let's not jeopardize KK's long term contract,  the supporting cast, and of all these young studs coming up who also will need to get paid.

This will be BG's defining moment. I myself believe he has a plan, has sacrificed and is willing to be smart about all of this.  This is not a two year plan, five year plan. This will be a decade in the making.

So stand by, don't get crazy Wild fans, be patient. We will be rewarded. 

"IBGIT"

  

 

[Velgey]

36 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

Just look at how many cups Matthews has brought to Toronto, or McDavid has brought to Edmonton.

That's a fair point about Matthews and McDavid. No one player is good enough to elevate a team to a cup. Vegas is a more well-rounded team than either Edmonton or Toronto, but I think some of that comes down to shrewd contracts. Stone is underpaid at $9.5 million cap/year. Eichel's contract was signed six years ago, so his cap hit looks small compared to McDavid or Matthews.

Colorado has three players paid as much or more than Kaprizov.

The Lightning signed their stars to massive contracts, but like Eichel, many are already several years old and thus don't look quite that massive today. Stamkos, Kucherov, Sergachev, Hedman, and Vasilevsky only fit because they were signed to long contracts and some manipulation of LTIR (where Brent Seabrook's cap hit currently resides for Tampa Bay). 

Most teams that have recently won the Cup have done so with one or more superstars on the roster. Some may been getting paid a couple million less than comparable players, but I think that has more to do with long contract length and the cap moving up. The Tampa Bay, Colorado, Washington, and Chicago championship teams were all built with one or two players that are among the top 5 for their position. Kaprizov is a top 5 left wing. He's the only unquestionable top 5 player we have on the team. He's going to get paid like it, whether that's with Minnesota or somewhere else.

[MrCheatachu]

1 hour ago, Velgey said:

Colorado has three players paid as much or more than Kaprizov.

When the Aves won the cup, MacK was in the last year of his $6.3M AAV contract.

They were unable to sustain that team success when you have cap casualties such as not being able to retain Kadri (who was underpaid on a 1-year 'prove it' deal) AND Burakovsky.

The trend right now seems to be signing your young players to 'Boldy-esqe' deals in hopes that your window is open when you have a shot of managing.  Capfriendly list of players sorted by AAV last season, it's notably missing any team that made it to the conference finals (FLA, CAR, DAL, VGK) and it doesnt get much better if you add in TOR, NJD, EDM and SEA.  Of those 8 teams, only 2 of them are on this list...

 

1. Nathan MacKinnon	COL	15.3%	$12,600,000
2. Connor McDavid	EDM	16.7%	$12,500,000
3. Artemi Panarin	NYR	14.3%	$11,642,857
4. Auston Matthews	TOR	14.6%	$11,640,250
5. Erik Karlsson	PIT	14.5%	$11,500,000
6. David Pastrnak	BOS	13.6%	$11,250,000
7. John Tavares	TOR	13.8%	$11,000,000
8. Drew Doughty	LAK	13.8%	$11,000,000
9. Mitchell Marner	TOR	13.4%	$10,903,000
10. Jonathan Huberdeau	CGY	12.7%	$10,500,000

 

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, MrCheatachu said:

When the Aves won the cup, MacK was in the last year of his $6.3M AAV contract.

They were unable to sustain that team success when you have cap casualties such as not being able to retain Kadri (who was underpaid on a 1-year 'prove it' deal) AND Burakovsky.

The trend right now seems to be signing your young players to 'Boldy-esqe' deals in hopes that your window is open when you have a shot of managing.  Capfriendly list of players sorted by AAV last season, it's notably missing any team that made it to the conference finals (FLA, CAR, DAL, VGK) and it doesnt get much better if you add in TOR, NJD, EDM and SEA.  Of those 8 teams, only 2 of them are on this list...

 

1. Nathan MacKinnon	COL	15.3%	$12,600,000
2. Connor McDavid	EDM	16.7%	$12,500,000
3. Artemi Panarin	NYR	14.3%	$11,642,857
4. Auston Matthews	TOR	14.6%	$11,640,250
5. Erik Karlsson	PIT	14.5%	$11,500,000
6. David Pastrnak	BOS	13.6%	$11,250,000
7. John Tavares	TOR	13.8%	$11,000,000
8. Drew Doughty	LAK	13.8%	$11,000,000
9. Mitchell Marner	TOR	13.4%	$10,903,000
10. Jonathan Huberdeau	CGY	12.7%	$10,500,000

 

I would hope the Wild's window is the next 3-5 years before they have a Av's situation. Cant pay them all....

[TCMooch]

No way should Kap make Matthews money. Not as good and not a center. Cap could be widely different but I just don’t see him as a $15 million player unless the cap is raised a lot to compensate.

If her wants that kind of money then he better be putting up 100 point seasons from now until good next contract.

[bisopher]

9 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

No way should Kap make Matthews money. Not as good and not a center. Cap could be widely different but I just don’t see him as a $15 million player unless the cap is raised a lot to compensate.

If her wants that kind of money then he better be putting up 100 point seasons from now until good next contract.

That sounds like a great idea to me...

 

....And if anyone wonders why the Leafs can't get over the hump and win a Cup, I'd point to their top 3 players making $33.5MM / year (41.8% of the cap) even before Matthews got his extra $1.6MM.

[UncleWalt]

The Athletiic said the cap percentage of Matthews’ deal is identical to MacKinnon’s. Looks like that’s 15%. So just take whatever you think the cap will be in 24-25 and multiple by .15. My guess is KK gets $14 million. 

[mnfaninnc]

10 hours ago, Cole_Train said:

Will KK want to stay in Minnesota? Money or not will be the multi million dollar question though. Players of his caliber will always get paid so will he value being here. Does he see a winning future here and can he properly market himself here? Many athletes like him make good side money with sponsors, endorsements and advertising. Does Minnesota offer those other intangibles? I sure as hell hope so. 

I think the answer to those questions is yes. I think he's happy with the community and with the prospects coming, I believe he sees a way to win here. 

[mnfaninnc]

9 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

This talk about bringing in a true 1C for KK is a huge talking point right now. We all can dream about who, but we better consider one HUGE factor when we spend all this alleged salary cap pie in the coming years.  Let's not jeopardize KK's long term contract,  the supporting cast, and of all these young studs coming up who also will need to get paid.

It's not the cap the #1C gobbles up, it's the hope of winning. That is the thing that is missing the most. That #1C helps us win! And, that is specifically why we need to go after the opportunity!

[Mateo3xm]

12 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

Minnesota is exactly the physical location KK would chose based on where he's from and what he's shown. He's not a big city, big media player or need the limelight or even care.

This statement is puzzling.

how do you know?

You know he played for CSKA Moscow right?

someone correct me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure that’s one of the biggest hockey market teams in the KHL.

I don’t think any of us really knows what his intentions are and I’m certain not as sure as you that he’ll stay. 

 

[Pewterschmidt]

3 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

This statement is puzzling.

how do you know?

You know he played for CSKA Moscow right?

someone correct me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure that’s one of the biggest hockey market teams in the KHL.

I don’t think any of us really knows what his intentions are and I’m certain not as sure as you that he’ll stay. 

 

I too was wondering how velociraptor had so much conviction

[vonlonster67]

5 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

This statement is puzzling.

how do you know?

You know he played for CSKA Moscow right?

someone correct me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure that’s one of the biggest hockey market teams in the KHL.

I don’t think any of us really knows what his intentions are and I’m certain not as sure as you that he’ll stay. 

 

Where he played was a reflection of his talent and has nothing to do with it based on Russian politics. He was born and raised in a outlying area in Russia. His family is very much off the main grid from suburban areas of Russia in Novokuznetsk. He and his brother are big outdoorsman and  family are far from big city. Where he grew up is much like Minnesota. 

He'll stay if he can win, location, his team and a fair contract are secondary. If you paid attention to his demeanor,  interaction with the media versus his teammates it pretty easy to see.

 

[vonlonster67]

8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

It's not the cap the #1C gobbles up, it's the hope of winning. That is the thing that is missing the most. That #1C helps us win! And, that is specifically why we need to go after the opportunity!

Right player/person, right contract, and culture only otherwise you are mortgaging our future. 

[vonlonster67]

8 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I think the answer to those questions is yes. I think he's happy with the community and with the prospects coming, I believe he sees a way to win here. 

BG is a huge piece of the pie to this as he was the only person KK respected to come to the USA. Other GMs failed. 

I believe KK respects BG as a player previous to GM and was a piece of the puzzle to come here, sign the last contract and the next. DE is the wildcard at this point.

[vonlonster67]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I too was wondering how velociraptor had so much conviction

What is the literal meaning of Velociraptor?

The word velociraptor combines the Latin velox, "swift," and raptor, "robber or plunderer."

[M_Nels]

I'd like to be a fly on the wall during BG's conversations with KK97. His trust in BG is going to be huge moving forward. 

KK is going to be 28 when his current contract is up, with Matthews his extension gets him up to age 30. Don't know what a term for him looks like at that point but a lot can change in 3 seasons and we're all along for the ride.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Quote

Does Auston Matthews Set the Market For Kirill Kaprizov's Next Deal?

It sets a market for future deals for all top players, so yes in a way, but with KK97's next deal being 3 years away from starting, there will be a lot of other deals that will better set the expected terms of his deal.

This is why Guerin kind of had to sign him to 5 years, because adding any more out years would have required at least $12M per season, which would have substantially increased the average cap hit(at least .5M per season), and the Wild were already going to be tight on money for most of his deal.

[Dango]

20 hours ago, Cole_Train said:

Will KK want to stay in Minnesota? Money or not will be the multi million dollar question though. Players of his caliber will always get paid so will he value being here. Does he see a winning future here and can he properly market himself here? Many athletes like him make good side money with sponsors, endorsements and advertising. Does Minnesota offer those other intangibles? I sure as hell hope so. 

Mn has a fan base that to often brings politics into their decisions on weather to support players when they reach star status so hopefully that doesnt happen here .  Before #97 can want to be here he has to be welcomed here .  

[M_Nels]

10 minutes ago, Dango said:

Mn has a fan base that to often brings politics into their decisions on weather to support players when they reach star status so hopefully that doesnt happen here .  Before #97 can want to be here he has to be welcomed here .  

How do you figure that he hasn't been welcomed here??

[Dango]

5 minutes ago, M_Nels said:

How do you figure that he hasn't been welcomed here??

Im just looking at the future for when he has  bigger expectation being a mn icon  which usually comes with success and money etc .  Hopefully it all stays good and nothing sours it  .