Article: Filip Gustavsson Should Get Cash Not Backlash

[Tony Abbott]

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[Imyourhuckleberry]

Quote

Gustavsson has value, his season gives him leverage, and he should use it. That's his job.

That's his agent's job. It's possible that Gustavsson hasn't yet seen a contract because an agent isn't going to bring a low ball offer to his client unless he thinks his client really wants to stay with the team and the agent knows the contract value is getting close to the best it's going to be.

Not surprising to see this go to arbitration.  It would be nice if Gustavsson's agent presents him with a contract from Guerin that's reasonable prior to the arbitration date, but his agent probably wants the arbitration at this point after seeing some of those other contracts indicated above.

The agent's job is not to fit the contract within the salary cap of the Wild, although I don't know which other teams have space and fitting him under the cap for the Wild may ultimately end up being in the best interest of his client.

When you consider that Gustavsson was far superior last season to how Fleury had played for the Wild prior to signing his current 2-year $7M deal, it's easy to see why his agent would argue for that salary at the minimum for his client.

[B1GKappa97]

They should just take the one-year arbitration number imo. Same as they did with Fiala. Get Gus back in here next year, let him prove whether he's a legit starter... and then trade him next offseason if his contract-numbers keep coming back too high for us! 

Wallstedt is the future anyway. Not Gus. It would be nice to have him as a starter while Jesper gets his footing in the NHL, but given our defensive acumen its really not necessary. 

Like Talbot before him, Gus benefited from playing in the Wild's system and now is trying to turn that into a bigger payday. Gus sure wasn't the Gus Bus in Ottowa, and Talbot saw his numbers decline away from MN too. If we have a system that's making these guys look so good, I don't see why we should bend over backwards to overpay them.

Especially given our cap situation the next couple years. 

[Protec]

Sure there’s lots of fans who say dumb stuff. Reality is the agents are looking at comparable deals and trying to do the best for their guy & themselves. However, the team doesn’t have lots of money. Maroon was an important player so arguing Gus should’ve got that money is similar to what Talbot’s agent did. Probably gonna piss of Guerin who has a pretty good young backup goalie in IA and the other guy signed too with McIntyre. Jones could come up and the Wild would be fine if Gus forced his way out via the agent or other contracts the Wild can’t afford. 
 

From my perspective, it’s like why Gus don’t you just sign and stay in MN where you had success. Whoever’s is grappling for the extra bucks is adding unnecessary complications and stress to a situation. If the awarded cost is high based on these comps at a time when the Wild are up against it, then it’s potentially damaging to the organization by either making it harder to manage the cap or being forced to trade the player. It seems like Guerin has a disdain for agents. He’s confident he can cover the goaltending regardless of what happens, so this is a waste of time or source of headache. Yes it’s business but if you’re the GM, this style of doing business trying to leverage whatever you got to squeeze out the extra dough has got to be aggravating because the option is there to trade ball three RFAs. It’s not out of the ordinary but attitudes towards players who hold out or don’t mind putting up a middle finger to the team aren’t appreciated. Kevin Fiala did it and the Wild worked it out then. What was the long-term deal with that? Didn’t work out in MN but at least the Wild got a nice return. 
 

With Gus, the moves are just gonna have to play out. He still has to prove he can repeat the success but he has been a great goalie so far and if he just sticks with it, he’ll get paid plenty. I think it’s the agents/lawyers bogging things down trying to get the max possible. For Guerin, yeah I’d be pissed cause any extra awarded to Gus is the flex money needed for call ups, etc. If the agent is doing that under these circumstances for the Wild as an organization, I’d be inclined to trade the guy and go with Fleury and another goalie.

[vonlonster67]

Tony I agree with your take and feel they need to pay Gus.

One thing I'm concerned about is his fitness. I believe the one thing no one pointed out last year is Gus wore down towards the end of the season due to his fitness. I know he played a marathon game in Dallas game one, but after that was not the same goalie.

His physic is not even close to the sculpted Talbot or to Flower. I was happy to see him with his family picture and new baby, but also saw his "gut". Go back and take a look. Not sure a goalie making four million a year is gonna get that from a team if he makes no effort.

I love Gus, I hope he's in the Wild plans with the "Wall" as 1A and 1B. but I hope he gets in the weight room and figures that out if he wants to get paid. There are goalie who are not the picture of ideal physic who are successful, but every little things helps. It is 2023 so just hitting the ice like old school is out with the money involved today.

[Will D. Ness]

Gus is going to be big for us.  Sign him for 2 years at 4M if need be.  It doesn't really matter.  We need to give opportunities to the young guys instead of old guys for the next 2 years.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

Gus Bus has every right to squeeze the dollars. I wasn't a fan of extending Fleury and thought we paid out far too much based on his previous seasons and now it is hurting us. Goli was another head scratcher when he was signed. Bottom line is, this isn't Gus' problem and he should be trying to make his money when he can and capitalize on a very good season. Yes, he has a good system in front of him. Yes, he was nothing special in Ottawa. Those are not reasons for him to take a team friendly deal.

I'd love to see a Gus Bus, Wall combo but I think if he continues to play this well he likely prices himself out of our range the next two seasons. Best case scenario, we get 2 and kick the can down the road until cap hits come off.

If I was Guerin, I would be looking closely at freeing up some space in whatever way he can if Gus runs a little more expensive than expected. Moose @ 3M comes to mind. I would even explore trading away Spurgeon(NMC) if we are going to continue to force players into playing gritty. Our blue line is not built for what GMBG and DE envision. Might as well take some steps towards that vision and that starts with Spurgeon. I really like the guy and think he is a stellar defenseman but he is not built for the style he are trying to play. That is not his fault and he is an excellent defender in his own right, worth every penny we pay him. 

If this is the identity we are going to force, then we need to get players that are equipped for that. Going Fleury/McIntyre or Fleury/Jones is not going to take us to the PS and beyond. Not that I think that should be the goal this season, but if its about winning..... 

[Protec]

55 minutes ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Gus Bus has every right to squeeze the dollars. I wasn't a fan of extending Fleury and thought we paid out far too much based on his previous seasons and now it is hurting us. Goli was another head scratcher when he was signed. Bottom line is, this isn't Gus' problem and he should be trying to make his money when he can and capitalize on a very good season.

Okay but Fleury and Goligoski were each on the books before Gus had a nice season. The whole big picture is important. That's what I'm saying and that's what a GM looks at. You simply cannot do every deal giving benefit to the player for their upside burying your head in the sand from risk. The budget isn't perfect and I'm not saying Gus isn't worth more than he can get in MN now.

I'm calling it ahead of time saying, this will stick in Guerin's craw. He has shown a record of rewarding guys when they deserve it. Gus should get the most he can, that's fine but at the expense of opening a worm-can over a small percentage of what he could make in a career. Personally, I think Gus should be thanking GMBG for getting him out of Ottawa and putting him into a scenario where he can succeed. Bet on yourself and take the fair deal the team wants to offer. If the arbitrator decides he should get more than the team's offer, then it's taking the autonomy away from the GM and pigeon-holing the organization at the worst time. That's what Gus would be doing too so its not just him being shrewd trying to get the best deal for himself.

To me it just seems like something an agent would advise and couldn't give fewer cruds about the big picture. Hope it works out for the best.

[Lovehockey]

Great article Tony. For Gus he is doing exactly right thing. He played great he needs to be rewarded. And honestly doesn’t look like he is in Wild plans for long term, so far everything is pointing out to Wallstedt. So from prospective either get the most money u can get or get and longer deal with other team

[mnfaninnc]

I completely disagree with Tony's take. Goose2 had 1 good year. Arbitration will be judged on the past 3 years. He was very good for us last season and got hot. Goalies do have hot seasons. I believe he will be around for more than next year and he and The Wall will be a nice tandem in the future. 

Goose2 has 66 GP, is 32-22-10. His gaa is 2.51, with a .920 sv %. This is over 3 seasons of work. This is not a lot of work. Yes, his conditioning was questioned and he is supposed to be working on that aspect this summer. If his agent wants to be greedy, then he will try to get every nickel. If his agent is smart, he'll help the team out now and get it later assuming Goose2 was not just a 1 year wonder. 

The CBA remedies these things, arbitration is one way. We, as fans, also have to realize that there is considerable risk that Goose2 follows up next season with a similar season. I think it's likely he is good, but will he be that good? Can he handle the grind of 50+ games? Is he an every other year goalie? Nobody knows, because there's not a long enough book on him. This is where the deficiency is, and this is what the agent needs to recognize. There's a reason RFAs don't make the same money as UFAs, the book is longer on the UFAs, a consistency is established. 

Even if we didn't have the -$15m to the rest of the league, I would still suggest slow walking the raise. You don't want undo pressure on a young guy, and goalies are young guys until their prime of 27. Goose2 can have a very long career here, or he can go the way of Carter Hart or Spencer Knight, or Jack Campbell. He needs a little patience. 

I think Shooter is ready to go higher than I would in the negotiation. I believe in the process of paying your dues. Too much too soon has ruined many players. Squeezing the team now, the one who picked you off the scrap heap and rebuilt you is very short sighted. 

The main stat to take away from this is 66 gp. That's not a lot of games. I think this is where the arbitration looks hard at. I'm not sure an arbitrator just goes down the middle on this, that would be a dereliction of his duty. If that's the case, why doesn't an agent ask for $7m? But, could there be an outside of the box solution?

Bonuses get paid under the following year's cap from what I understand. With the cap going up substantially next season, and us still being hamstrung with the penalties + filling slots with ready prospects, maybe we could do a lower base with starter stat bonuses attached to the contract. It seems like that would be the biggest compromise that would be a win-win for everyone.

I'm suggesting a GS bonus + sv% bonus + playoff wins bonus for Goose2. If he can accomplish those, say 55 GS, .920 sv% and 7 playoff wins, he could go from the lower base to about $4m. I think that would be very fair, and I'd put the base as low as you could for the incentives. I think there's a cap on bonuses per % of his cap number, but I'm not sure what it is. I'm pretty sure Guerin is not the cap guru on this team, so perhaps the cap guru can think outside of the box.

Can a player get offersheeted if he chooses arbitration? I didn't think you could. But, there didn't seem to be much of an offersheet chance for another team to take Goose2. Does that show a little loyalty to the team?

[NC Beach Bum]

I'm curious about salary structure in the NHL vs NFL, do all multi year contracts have the total dollars evenly divided by the years in NHL? NFL seems to be able to structure different salary every year in a multi year deal.

 

[mnfaninnc]

13 minutes ago, NC Beach Bum said:

I'm curious about salary structure in the NHL vs NFL, do all multi year contracts have the total dollars evenly divided by the years in NHL? NFL seems to be able to structure different salary every year in a multi year deal.

Yes, they are totally different. In the NHL you get an AAV which is the cap hit. If you look at Debrincat's deal, it's a $7.875 cap hit but he gets $8.25m X 3 and then a $6.XX year. That probably makes it easier to trade in the final year. 

The NFL can monkey with a lot of stuff, roster bonuses, performance bonuses, signing bonuses, actual pay and have the cap number fluctuate over the term of the deal. NHL doesn't do that. They used to, but not since 2012-13. Also, and this is a key in negotiations, an NHL contract is fully guaranteed, an NFL contract is not, and that's why they make a big deal about guaranteed money in an NFL contract. 

So, when you're -$15m/yr in cap, you can't screw it up. It also means short term deals may work out best.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

29 minutes ago, Protec said:

Okay but Fleury and Goligoski were each on the books before Gus had a nice season. The whole big picture is important. That's what I'm saying and that's what a GM looks at. You simply cannot do every deal giving benefit to the player for their upside burying your head in the sand from risk. The budget isn't perfect and I'm not saying Gus isn't worth more than he can get in MN now.

I'm calling it ahead of time saying, this will stick in Guerin's craw. He has shown a record of rewarding guys when they deserve it. Gus should get the most he can, that's fine but at the expense of opening a worm-can over a small percentage of what he could make in a career. Personally, I think Gus should be thanking GMBG for getting him out of Ottawa and putting him into a scenario where he can succeed. Bet on yourself and take the fair deal the team wants to offer. If the arbitrator decides he should get more than the team's offer, then it's taking the autonomy away from the GM and pigeon-holing the organization at the worst time. That's what Gus would be doing too so its not just him being shrewd trying to get the best deal for himself.

To me it just seems like something an agent would advise and couldn't give fewer cruds about the big picture. Hope it works out for the best.

My point was these contracts didn't look good at the time. I wasn't a fan of either at the time they were signed and now they affect the bigger picture. That still isn't Gus' fault, nor is it his responsibility to take less to ease our cap pain. 

GMBG has done right by some guys, yes. There were others that seemed less than thrilled with him. Expecting him to take a pay cut because he was traded for and played is total BS. He performed way above what anyone could have expected or hoped and deserves to get the dollars. I believe that trade was more about jettisoning Talbot than it was about getting something back. They had every intention of Fleury being the number one but Fleury is over the hill and not the goalie he used to be. Maybe GMBG should be thanking Gus for bailing his bad decision out, not the other way around. It is a matter of perspective.

The simple truth is you really can't expect a player to take less out of gratitude or loyalty. This is a business and even in GMBG's interview with Russo he acknowledged that and said it was what it was. Even he commented that Gus should be taking them to arbitration and that was a good route. If he actually is PO'd over a player trying to get a contract they earned, then he is a shit GM. (Which I don't believe is true, nor do I believe he is holding onto resentment for Gus taking the route he has.) 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, Lovehockey said:

And honestly doesn’t look like he is in Wild plans for long term, so far everything is pointing out to Wallstedt.

Wallstedt is an excellent prospect, but it seems a lot of people are making this assumption that Wallstedt would supplant Gustavsson. It very well could work out that way as he's a very good prospect, but  there is no guarantee about that. What we can be certain of is that Fleury will not be the future. I'd definitely want Gustavsson around for the next 2 years if they can work out a good deal.

I know that Gustavsson is helped by the team around him that aids goalies to some degree. Fleury absolutely had that in Vegas, but hasn't looked nearly as good with Chicago or the Wild as he did there. Gus looked far superior to Fleury all of last year, and I think everyone assumes he would be the starter if he comes back.

Gustavsson was a good goalie prospect and has already put in one very good season with the Wild. Wallstedt is a great prospect, but still needs to prove himself at the NHL level. It could take a while for him to surpasses Gustavsson, and it is possible that it simply never happens.

[Protec]

2 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

The simple truth is you really can't expect a player to take less out of gratitude or loyalty.

I don't think Guerin is trying to rip Gus or simply asking him to take a team friendly deal. Rather it seems like Gus is going for the max at the worst possible time for the organization. Almost like saying "Well, Fletcher signed the shit-contracts. I said it would be bad then, so Gus should feel great soaking the team for the max. Not his fault." If the number is in the middle when it's over that's fine. Historically for the Wild, there's been a poor record of keeping guys who go arbitration route. Not sure whether that means anything but the money is tight. MN will have to ride it out and might be forced into more tough decisions before its over. Might lose more good guys like Hartman or Gus. I think Guerin is trying to make things work now which would benefit Gus if he is with the program. This is why I think Guerin could perceive this as Gus putting himself above the greater good of the group. I hope it's nothing and Guerin isn't secretly pissed. I could see him letting things play out and then boom, one day Gus goes to a team for their cheaper backup and a draft pick.

[Wild4Ever]

5 hours ago, vonlonster67 said:

Tony I agree with your take and feel they need to pay Gus.

One thing I'm concerned about is his fitness. I believe the one thing no one pointed out last year is Gus wore down towards the end of the season due to his fitness. I know he played a marathon game in Dallas game one, but after that was not the same goalie.

His physic is not even close to the sculpted Talbot or to Flower. I was happy to see him with his family picture and new baby, but also saw his "gut". Go back and take a look. Not sure a goalie making four million a year is gonna get that from a team if he makes no effort.

I love Gus, I hope he's in the Wild plans with the "Wall" as 1A and 1B. but I hope he gets in the weight room and figures that out if he wants to get paid. There are goalie who are not the picture of ideal physic who are successful, but every little things helps. It is 2023 so just hitting the ice like old school is out with the money involved today.

If I recall, Gus started out poorly. As did Flower. After the Wild's 13th game, Gus got his 1st win, on Nov 9th. The Wild had been shutout the previous 2 games and it was time to see if we could depend on Gus. It took Gus 4 games to get it together. Most likely due to the Gus Gut. From there he took off and started driving the Gus Bus. He just needs to remember how he got there. I say arbitrate and let him prove it. I didn't like how the playoffs went when Evason tossed him the keys. Let's see if the Gus Gut has lightened the load.

[Tony Abbott]

9 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Wallstedt is the future anyway. Not Gus. It would be nice to have him as a starter while Jesper gets his footing in the NHL, but given our defensive acumen its really not necessary.

So... do we know that for sure? I get that Wallstedt has the hype, and had a decent rookie AHL season, but do we know for sure that in five years, we're going to look at Wallstedt as better than Gustavsson? It's not a slam-dunk. 

[B1GKappa97]

11 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

So... do we know that for sure? I get that Wallstedt has the hype, and had a decent rookie AHL season, but do we know for sure that in five years, we're going to look at Wallstedt as better than Gustavsson? It's not a slam-dunk. 

Better than Gus? I don't know but I would hope so.

A decent starting option similar to Gus? I think that's extremely likely.  

Its not like Gus was on fire in Ottowa before he came here. He clearly benefited from our system and plays a style very, very similar to Wallstedt's. So given Gus' success with the Wild, I would say the odds are high we should be able to eventually get a similar level of play from Wallstedt once he comes up in a couple years. 

Ideally we'd have both Gus and Wallstedt as a tandem for the forseeable future but if Gus is expecting too much from a contract, I don't see any reason why the Wild should feel they need to sign him long-term due to Wallstedt's timeline. We don't need to overpay. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by B1GKappa97

[B1GKappa97]

13 hours ago, Wild4Ever said:

 I didn't like how the playoffs went when Evason tossed him the keys. Let's see if the Gus Gut has lightened the load.

Yeah those PPGs were pretty rough. And just way too quick. Like one gets by you in 3 seconds? Okay, fine, bad luck.

But multiple PPs like that? I mean c'mon. They scored 6 PPGs on Gus and half of those took less than 20 seconds to pay off. That's not great. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

14 hours ago, Wild4Ever said:

I didn't like how the playoffs went when Evason tossed him the keys.

Did you like the playoffs when Fleury was in?

[Protec]

14 hours ago, Wild4Ever said:

If I recall, Gus started out poorly. As did Flower. After the Wild's 13th game, Gus got his 1st win, on Nov 9th. The Wild had been shutout the previous 2 games and it was time to see if we could depend on Gus. It took Gus 4 games to get it together. Most likely due to the Gus Gut. From there he took off and started driving the Gus Bus. He just needs to remember how he got there. I say arbitrate and let him prove it. I didn't like how the playoffs went when Evason tossed him the keys. Let's see if the Gus Gut has lightened the load.

Solid argument here. Gus should get a raise 100% but the time for him to get 4M a year is not now. I would be surprised if the arbitration led to a contract that high but I suppose it could happen based on some of Tony’s examples. If the Wild weren’t entering the worst years of cap penalties I don’t think anyone even bats an eye for Gus getting 4M. At the same time, that’s a rather large reward-factor for the small sample size. One season behind good MN defense sharing responsibilities with Fleury is a pretty good environment. $800K. Gus could be worth 4M if he can keep it going but Carter Hart is an example of small sample size and why perhaps teams should be cautious before awarding big AAV? 
 

12 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

So... do we know that for sure? I get that Wallstedt has the hype, and had a decent rookie AHL season, but do we know for sure that in five years, we're going to look at Wallstedt as better than Gustavsson? It's not a slam-dunk. 

We sorta don’t know it on Gus either. MN just needs to play it safe for now. I wouldn’t wanna lose Gustavsson and for Guerin it represents a great move he made to upgrade the goaltending. Keeping Gus is a priority for sure. Under the circumstances Guerin has to try to maintain the max wiggle-room. Hopefully the arbitrator doesn’t handicap the Wild worse and neuter Guerin before a cap-crunched season. If Gus and Duhaime get generous numbers it will not be great for the Wild or Addison. 😀

[Protec]

21 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

Gus is going to be big for us.  Sign him for 2 years at 4M if need be.  It doesn't really matter.  We need to give opportunities to the young guys instead of old guys for the next 2 years.

Okay with this. Less for Addison in the end and less flexibility with the cap perhaps but would be getting the most important guy squared away.

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Ideally we'd have both Gus and Wallstedt as a tandem for the forseeable future but if Gus is expecting too much from a contract, I don't see any reason why the Wild should feel they need to sign him long-term due to Wallstedt's timeline. We don't need to overpay. 

Also agree with this and think a short deal for Gusu buys time to develop longer-term conclusions about where everyone fits before the mpenalties drop off.

[M_Nels]

12 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

So... do we know that for sure? I get that Wallstedt has the hype, and had a decent rookie AHL season, but do we know for sure that in five years, we're going to look at Wallstedt as better than Gustavsson? It's not a slam-dunk. 

It’s also not a slam dunk that Gus can continue building off last year. Goalies are extremely streaky and hopefully he came into camp in shape this year. (Haven’t heard/seen anything on it). 

[Protec]

19 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Can a player get offersheeted if he chooses arbitration? I didn't think you could. But, there didn't seem to be much of an offersheet chance for another team to take Goose2. Does that show a little loyalty to the team?

We talked about this quite a bit before and the offer sheet compensation is rarely worth going after a player unless the circumstances are special. I would think the goaltending market overall would discourage a GM from doing that on a relatively unproven/proven guy. 
 

Just looking at recent deals and there are a lot of decent goalies for <$2M. Somebody would have to overpay and give up picks too it seems. 

[Will D. Ness]

20 minutes ago, Protec said:

Okay with this. Less for Addison in the end and less flexibility with the cap perhaps but would be getting the most important guy squared away.

True with Addison.  He deserves another shot and I would even give him 2 years.  Duhaime same boat but has a little more value IMO.  We need bottom six grind less than a powder puff defenseman PP specialist .  Gus OTOH was solid as hell last season.  I know sample size is small but he proved what these guys still need to prove.