Article: Riley Heidt Demonstrates the Value In Not Trading Up

[Tony Abbott]

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[TheGoosesAreLooses]

Plus Riley Heidt is a good ol' Saskatoon boy. He might be 5'11" but he'll play gritty like he's 6'2" at least. They grow those farm boys tough, not guys you want to throw hands with.

[mnfaninnc]

A very good argument, yet, I do think Guerin was trying to move up so still having 64 was more luck than patience. It was reported that Chicago was also trying to do the same and then Moore fell into their lap (whom I believe they were targeting). 

While I still hope the Wild will end up trading for Moore, I do not want them to give up any of the 3 centers they got in this draft to do it. And, I'm not so sure that Guerin was dangling 53 & 64 to move up, I think he was dangling Addison and other prospects. There was more value in the known commodities that were further along in development to help the mid teens teams. 

But, they weren't biting, and I find it specifically interesting that Detroit wouldn't part with 17. They drafted an Addison type player, why wouldn't they take Addison who was about ready? Could it be that Addison's value is lower than we thought? He'd better come into camp significantly stronger than he was last year with a whole different attitude. 

As for the Moore/Heidt comparison, Heidt is 2 months younger than Moore, but Moore has been lifting/filling out. He's up to 195 now, and I haven't seen Heidt's progression quite so aggressive. Heidt may be tough, but he's got some growing out to do! At 5'11" 195, that's still good size for a shorter frame and can be effective on the 3rd line. Yet, I feel Moore's a top 6 guy. 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by mnfaninnc

[Protec]

Quote

cement-footed Koehn Ziemmer falling further.

A guy named Koehn who skates like a pylon. That's rich.

I really liked Heidt. When I suggested him for our 1st round pick saying it would be a reach but nice offense, most comments were about his size. I'm pretty psyched the Wild got three centers this draft. A good time to get a few centers.

Here's some names for next year's draft. Defense is heavy in this draft. Hard to say who's gonna be in the 20-30 range of available picks next Summer but here's some names to consider. Funny to see a top guy named Eiserman not spelled Yzerman. 😎

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/2024-nhl-draft-rankings-early-top-16/

[B1GKappa97]

I mean getting Moore would've been great, but I'm not mad about Stramel and taking an undersized 'top-6 playmaker' is easier to digest at the end of the 2nd vs if we'd actually taken Perrault or Heidt at #21. 

Honestly, making the playoffs last year was probably the worst thing that could've happened for our prospect pool. We weren't good enough to escape round 1 in the playoffs but we were too good to land a top-15 prospect in a stacked class. All that said, I think the FO made some tasty lemonade! 

Stramel has size and speed which is something we've lacked in our bottom-6 since Nico Sturm got traded off, and I recall a lot of posters wanting to sign that guy to a long-term deal despite a lack of offensive production!

 And somehow he still helped Colorado win a Stanley Cup despite that...

Getting Heidt at the end of round 2 was just the Wild having their enormous cake and still getting to eat it too. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by B1GKappa97

[Protec]

2 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

Heidt's 1.43 points per game in the WHL easily bests the draft-year paces of Mathew Barzal (1.30), Point (1.26), Brayden Schenn (1.26), and Dylan Cozens (1.24), who all turned into top-six NHL forwards. It's a stone's throw away from 2011 first-overall pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.54). 

 

This is a perfect illustration of my recurrent North American player preference. Players who have shown quality in top Canadian and American U-18 level hockey have already proven they can compete against the hardest competition for their age level in the way they got there. A smaller or lighter-weight guy who is at the top of WHL scoring has undeniable ability to handle physical NA hockey. If you're draft year is comparable to NHL players in multiple ways, apples to apples, there's good odds Heidt will be like a Brayden Point or Matt Barzal in their style of skating and aggressive puck-carrying. MN could use guys like this on the PP. 

This was a good draft because the Wild can watch the development, sort the wheat from the duds, and perhaps trade prospects. Their picks were smart to get players in the mold of previous draft successes with good comparables. Thus, increase the chance of getting NHL guys.

[Beast]

It just happened to work out that way, it wasn’t an intentional strategy.  What if Heidt wasn’t there?  What are we saying then?

As said, there’s a reason why he fell.  I’m not going to jump to any conclusions as to whether this was a steal.  Every other team’s scouts decided the guy wasn’t that good.  I like the pick, but I’m not banking on him being a top line center someday.

It also doesn’t make up for reaching in the first round.  Reasonable people understand trading up may not have been possible.  I’d still like the draft more if they had taken Ritchie.  Things may change that make it look genius by this time next year, but that’s the current conclusion I reach based on reading the “experts” opinions/analysis.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, Protec said:

cement-footed Koehn Ziemmer falling further.

I think that's a bit overzealous for whoever came up with that line. He lacks an explosive first step, that is true, but he's about an average skater overall.

Quote

Ziemmer isn't a good technical skater, and that affects his ability to escape from opponents in his own zone and start breakouts. However, once he's shuffled up to his top speed, his deft hands come alive and he can deke his way around anyone standing in his way to get in on offence.

Quote

Ziemmer has all the tools to become a middle-six winger at the NHL level. He is one of the most dynamic players across the Western Hockey League in the offensive zone and has shown continued improvement year after year. Thanks to his strong play in front of the net, he should also be a power play option in either the bumper position or as a screen looking for tips and rebounds. He is going to be an exciting player once he establishes himself in the NHL, as he is the rare combination of size and skill that all teams are looking for.

Down the road, I think he'll be productive in the NHL based off of what I've been reading. Ziemmer ended the regular season with 41 goals, the highest total from a WHL first-year draft-eligible player since Seth Jarvis hit 42 in 2019-20. Heidt and Ziemmer complemented each other well and both helped the other tally more points than they might have with an average linemate.

Quote

As you would expect from a player who ranked near the top of the league in goals, Ziemmer has a great shot. He gets the puck off his stick quickly without advertising when it's going to happen. He can fool defenders and goaltenders with how sudden the puck gets on net, and he's discovered that is true no matter where he is on the ice, making him dangerous from anywhere.

Even so, he does seek the best spots on the ice to set up to receive a pass, which is a key part of his game.

I would expect to see Ziemmer on top power play lines once he establishes himself at the NHL level. Obviously, improving his skating would do wonders for his overall game as it's clearly only around average right now.

I didn't know anything about him until I went to investigate Hiedt and it made me slightly more interested in Ziemmer than Hiedt, but both are solid prospects and it's nice that the Wild were able to grab one of them late in the 2nd.

[Protec]

48 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I didn't know anything about him until I went to investigate Hiedt and it made me slightly more interested in Ziemmer than Hiedt, but both are solid prospects and it's nice that the Wild were able to grab one of them late in the 2nd.

No biggie, I'm sure Koehn's not a pylon out there. 😁

46 minutes ago, Beast said:

 What if Heidt wasn’t there?  What are we saying then?

Good question, not what we're saying now I suppose.

I think there is very little control over what happens at the draft. Teams have draft boards of their own with goals that are probably more likely to bounce around in a deep draft between 20-100 than in the top 20. The most well known, talented guys go first. Since there were such quality centers taken early, beyond the first tier teams didn't value centers as highly because they had taken a good one already. Therefore, best player or positional need would tend to favor taking other than a center. Goalies, wings and defense taken between 22-100 were over 70%.

42% of the top 21 picks were centers. 24% of the next ~thirty selections. 27% of the next fifty picks after that. Looking at the centers taken a few picks before and after Heidt, I don't believe his fall to 64th is an indictment of his talent or character. To me it looks like the reality doesn't overlap the rankings. It might be close towards the top of the draft and a falling player from the very top is spooky. When it's in that 20-100 range there's way more going on amongst teams and much less spotlight to assure players get scooped up automatically. Heidt, Terrance, Sawchyn, Castagna are guys who went near one another and were in the same category with MolGaard, RasmuKampu, Nelson, Svoboda, Wahlberg, Nillsson, Ludtke, Nehring, Cataford, Gardiner, and Ziemmer. This is the group of guys who went in that zone so I don't really see Heidt as a great faller in the 2023 Draft. I think the Wild would've liked Terrance for his speed, Nelson or Sawchyn for their potential and USNTDP, Ludtke or Nehring for their upper Midwestern work ethic and Minnesota-ness. Of course the Wild coulda gone elite Swede and we wouldn't have been shocked either. Of the guys who actually were available, I would have still wanted the Wild to take Heidt. I think the Wild were really lucky to get him with the last pick of the 2nd round.

[Jamesgang]

How long will the Wild leave this promising rookie toiling in Iowa. Why is it our #1 prospect pool is always 1-3 years away from the NHL. We are in cap hell so why not give these guys a chance now to learn the NHL first hand. 

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I think that's a bit overzealous for whoever came up with that line. He lacks an explosive first step, that is true, but he's about an average skater overall.

If I were Judd, I would have looked at Ziemmer, asked Andy Ness to come into the room and watch tape of Ziemmer's stride, acceleration, and when he's up to speed and asked "is this fixable?" I would then listen to Andy break down the whole film and show me where he could fix certain things. 

Ness would have been in the room watching tape on a number of prospects that I thought I could get through 64. And, I'm pretty sure he has done this because one of the attributes Judd loves is skating. 

I'm pretty sure he got a good report on Heidt, too. What did Ziemmer do wrong? Nothing, he played wing and we wanted/needed centers. We got none of the guys I was hoping for, but after researching, I thought we got 3 solid, different centers that will help us. And, I think Andy Ness likes Stramel's skating and can fix Kumpulainen. 

I'm still standing by my suspicion that Stramel and Kumpulainen were Guerin picks and the rest of the draft was left to Judd. Remember when the Vikings choked away their 1st round clock and selected "Big Kev?" Everyone associated Kevin with the botched pick, but he was a really good d-lineman. I kind of think that's the same thing that will happen with Stramel. We'll be very happy with him and never remember the "Who" when Stramel's name was called.

Incidentally, last year after we picked Danila Yurov and he came up to the stage, he reminded me of when the Vikings took Randy Moss at late in the 1st. To me, Yurov looked like he was taking names and thinking they were all going to regret passing on him. He didn't look sour like Eli did, he looked pissed like "you all don't know how badly you will regret this decision!" That is the type of F-U that Shooter wants in Rossi's game! Yurov is going to have it. I also can't imagine he's pleased with his current ice time in Russia. I'm betting he comes over rock solid next year.

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, Protec said:

Here's some names for next year's draft. Defense is heavy in this draft. Hard to say who's gonna be in the 20-30 range of available picks next Summer but here's some names to consider.

Hope we can get someone in the Middleton class on D.

[B1GKappa97]

4 hours ago, Beast said:

It just happened to work out that way, it wasn’t an intentional strategy.  What if Heidt wasn’t there?  What are we saying then?

As said, there’s a reason why he fell.  I’m not going to jump to any conclusions as to whether this was a steal.  Every other team’s scouts decided the guy wasn’t that good.  I like the pick, but I’m not banking on him being a top line center someday.

It also doesn’t make up for reaching in the first round.  Reasonable people understand trading up may not have been possible.  I’d still like the draft more if they had taken Ritchie.  Things may change that make it look genius by this time next year, but that’s the current conclusion I reach based on reading the “experts” opinions/analysis.

He was there though. The article touches on a very likely reason why. A huge chunk of his point-total came from the PP. On a stacked squad. 

He's not going to be a top-line center, he may eventually just become a winger, but nobody at #21 was likely to have that happen either. Ritchie has more offensive potential than Stramel, for sure, but like Perrault he was more of a passer. Which we already have a bunch of. Way too much passing already. Its probably the most frustrating aspect of watching this team in the offensive zone. 

We need dudes who can crash and post-up near the goal. That's an element we're missing in both the NHL and the AHL. Ek does it, and that's about it. Stramel will be much better suited to that sort of a role than Calum Ritchie would've been. 

The 1st round was a pick made with the post-season in mind, not regular season point totals. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by B1GKappa97

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

23 hours ago, TheGoosesAreLooses said:

Plus Riley Heidt is a good ol' Saskatoon boy. He might be 5'11" but he'll play gritty like he's 6'2" at least. They grow those farm boys tough, not guys you want to throw hands with.

From a guy who was born and raised in Saskatoon, and has thrown hands with them on occasion lol

[mnfaninnc]

16 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

He was there though. The article touches on a very likely reason why. A huge chunk of his point-total came from the PP. On a stacked squad. 

I question the "stacked squad" thought. Prince George finished a distant 2nd in their division behind a stacked Kamloops squad, one we followed due to Bankier. Prince George was 8th in a 22 team league. That doesn't sound like really stacked to me.

Perhaps he doesn't grow into a 1C role, but, there's always a chance we got a Brayden Point type of player.

[Tony Abbott]

16 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm still standing by my suspicion that Stramel and Kumpulainen were Guerin picks and the rest of the draft was left to Judd.

They're pretty open about centers being the mandate, but I'd be extremely surprised if Guerin was the guy making the call of Charlie Stramel over another big center like Calum Ritchie.

[mnfaninnc]

24 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

They're pretty open about centers being the mandate, but I'd be extremely surprised if Guerin was the guy making the call of Charlie Stramel over another big center like Calum Ritchie.

I wasn't saying Stramel over Ritchie, I was thinking Stramel over an available wing like Musty. I think that Brackett likes to go best value regardless of position, until Guerin's big old foot stepped down and said "this year, we're taking centers!" "and large ones!" 

I believe he was much more active in the meetings, probably because the cupboards were stacked. You can do best value when you need everything, but it was pretty clear we needed centers!

After 21 & 53, the rest looked like Brackett picks. 

[Tony Abbott]

They've come out and said that was their strategy. I don't think that anyone got overruled, they went into the draft planning to do that.

[Up North Guy]

18 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

If I were Judd, I would have looked at Ziemmer, asked Andy Ness to come into the room and watch tape of Ziemmer's stride, acceleration, and when he's up to speed and asked "is this fixable?" I would then listen to Andy break down the whole film and show me where he could fix certain things. 

Ness would have been in the room watching tape on a number of prospects that I thought I could get through 64. And, I'm pretty sure he has done this because one of the attributes Judd loves is skating. 

I'm pretty sure he got a good report on Heidt, too. What did Ziemmer do wrong? Nothing, he played wing and we wanted/needed centers. We got none of the guys I was hoping for, but after researching, I thought we got 3 solid, different centers that will help us. And, I think Andy Ness likes Stramel's skating and can fix Kumpulainen. 

I'm still standing by my suspicion that Stramel and Kumpulainen were Guerin picks and the rest of the draft was left to Judd. Remember when the Vikings choked away their 1st round clock and selected "Big Kev?" Everyone associated Kevin with the botched pick, but he was a really good d-lineman. I kind of think that's the same thing that will happen with Stramel. We'll be very happy with him and never remember the "Who" when Stramel's name was called.

Incidentally, last year after we picked Danila Yurov and he came up to the stage, he reminded me of when the Vikings took Randy Moss at late in the 1st. To me, Yurov looked like he was taking names and thinking they were all going to regret passing on him. He didn't look sour like Eli did, he looked pissed like "you all don't know how badly you will regret this decision!" That is the type of F-U that Shooter wants in Rossi's game! Yurov is going to have it. I also can't imagine he's pleased with his current ice time in Russia. I'm betting he comes over rock solid next year.

I am really looking forward to Yurov in development camp. Hopefully it will be eye popping and I agree that it looks very promising for Yurov to come over next year.

[Protec]

21 hours ago, Jamesgang said:

How long will the Wild leave this promising rookie toiling in Iowa. Why is it our #1 prospect pool is always 1-3 years away from the NHL. We are in cap hell so why not give these guys a chance now to learn the NHL first hand. 

I agree with the years away statement. I don't mind it when the guy has one year to go in NCAA, WHL, or Elite Swede League but the Wild should have all along been getting guys who could get to the NHL relatively soon. Other teams do this, why not MN?

I think we will for sure see some more of the young forwards this year. I do think Maroon will be a good guy for the young players.

[Willy the poor boy]

4 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

They're pretty open about centers being the mandate, but I'd be extremely surprised if Guerin was the guy making the call of Charlie Stramel over another big center like Calum Ritchie.

BG said on Wild on 7'th he is not gonna come in the room and override the guy whose job it is to evaluate talent and tell him to draft a guy BG says he may have seen play a handful of times.

 

[Protec]

23 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

BG said on Wild on 7'th he is not gonna come in the room and override the guy whose job it is to evaluate talent and tell him to draft a guy BG says he may have seen play a handful of times.

This is what I've wondered before. Similar to comments here ahead of the draft, does Brackett get fixated on the guys he likes? I've done this on a surface level around the draft but do gurus get "horse with blinders" focused on one player or another? I have often hypothesized that's what happened when Rossi fell to 9th. Somebody got enamored and that's all she wrote. Maybe...

Does it happen to gurus? Stramel does appear to be very athletic. He's big and is a much smoother skater than Greenway. We liked Greenway at times, but getting Stramel who is a center gives the Wild another kick at the big-guy can. Would this idea and projection be enough to suck in a guru and hook em with hope? Maybe...

I like the Wild's odds though because in a deep draft, taking three centers in the first two rounds gives them some redundancy one prospect will realize their potential. Stramel seemed to be a smart reach cause his physical size would be a huge win if he develops an NHL game. RasmuKampu and Heidt each showed unique qualities too that would turn MN's 2023 draft into a home-run if all three players bring their early success to the NHL. I'm hopeful to see where these guys are at after this season.

 

[Mateo3xm]

On 7/6/2023 at 1:44 PM, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I think that's a bit overzealous for whoever came up with that line. He lacks an explosive first step, that is true, but he's about an average skater overall.

Down the road, I think he'll be productive in the NHL based off of what I've been reading. Ziemmer ended the regular season with 41 goals, the highest total from a WHL first-year draft-eligible player since Seth Jarvis hit 42 in 2019-20. Heidt and Ziemmer complemented each other well and both helped the other tally more points than they might have with an average linemate.

I would expect to see Ziemmer on top power play lines once he establishes himself at the NHL level. Obviously, improving his skating would do wonders for his overall game as it's clearly only around average right now.

I didn't know anything about him until I went to investigate Hiedt and it made me slightly more interested in Ziemmer than Hiedt, but both are solid prospects and it's nice that the Wild were able to grab one of them late in the 2nd.

Well there’s a reason he slipped to the 3rd round and 78th in the draft.

offense isn’t everything. I think one of the issues with him was his defense as well as his skating.

i don’t know if it would have been particularly wise to pick him when Heidt was still on the board with how bad we need Centers.

still the size would be nice but not having great skating is a big deal is you want to play in the NHl.

who knows though maybe he will overcome that and be great.

[Up North Guy]

21 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

I am really looking forward to Yurov in development camp. Hopefully it will be eye popping and I agree that it looks very promising for Yurov to come over next year.

Just listened to Russo's Straight From The Source podcast with BG. BG was very excited about Yurok. He has learned English in the last year. Both Yurok and Knuddy will be here next year.

[mnfaninnc]

22 hours ago, Up North Guy said:

He has learned English in the last year. Both Yurok and Knuddy will be here next year.

In his interview, he attempted to speak a little English. Most of the interview, though, was done through a translator, who I thought wasn't really that good. It seemed like when he answered questions through the translator, Yurov wasn't exactly answering the question asked in English (though the question was barely picked up by microphones). 

His English was pretty simple, and he wasn't real confident in it yet, but I think the big takeaway from this is that he's learning it, meaning, he plans to be here. In asking the question of which NHL players Yurov tried to model his game after, he mentioned Kaprizov 1st as the NHL player he admired. This would indicate that he watches him and may even indicate he has watched tape on him to break down his game. If Yurov has done this, and has learned how Kaprizov thinks, what better replacement for Zuccarello will there be? 

I did think that Yurov still looked small, and hope he really takes to the training regimen this year. ESPN+ sometimes shows some KHL games, I think I'm going to try and watch some of them this season. I'd kind of like to see how Knus%^&*, Yurov and Firstov are doing. 

Also in the interviews, Ohgren's was kind of revealing. He states that he models his game and likes watching Landeskog. He also said he thought 1 more year in the SHL and then he'd try to make the team in '24. Ohgren's English was accented, but very good. 

In Kumpulainen's interview, he mentioned Barkov as the guy he watched, then a columnist reminded him of Koivu, and he said Mikko Koivu was a legend back in Finland. He watched Koivu, but mainly on the national team, not with the Wild so much. Hopefully, Koivu helps Ohgren, Kumpulainen, and any of our other prospects when he makes a trip back to the homeland. 

Also, Ohgren was pretty excited about the Wild playing in Sweden next season. I'm sure he'll be in the Wild's box to watch them play, maybe even get invited to a practice or 2.