Article: Wilderness Walk: Rumor Mill Starting

[Thomas Williams]

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[mnfaninnc]

Conventional wisdom would state that there is no way Matt Dumba comes back, we simply can't afford him. I realize Revolving Hockey has him listed higher, but Dumba's production really places him at around a $4m/yr. contract. 

But, not so fast. Dumba, along with some other UFA players of other teams are entering a year where most teams are going into the season using LTIR, and with the cap only going up $1m, the choices are the bottom feeder teams for the most part. 

All said, and this will be the last year for this in the current cycle, to be a UFA this year is just a terrible storm of finance. The current trend among GMs is to pay the RFAs off their potential, and with the cap staying mostly stagnant that leaves little room for the UFAs. We did this with Boldy and Kaprizov, and might be doing it with Goose2.

So, where might Matt Dumba fit? You'd think from a capitalistic standpoint that he'd take the best deal he could find. But, that "best financial deal" is likely coming from a team on the rise just hoping to make the playoffs. I could see and Ottawa or Detroit being interested, but not really breaking the bank. 

How does this affect the Wild? Well, Dumba's already got a pretty good community network here. It's been his home for a decade. He wears an A which likely makes him very connected to this group of guys. The Wild are very likely to gain another playoff invitation, and in his mind, there is some unfinished business with this club. Dumba isn't really that old, he'll be 29 when next season starts. While he's been injured, D usually get a little better with age and can compensate for physical decline with increased anticipation. 

From the Wild's perspective, it looks like Faber is in line to take a defensive spot. It also appears that Addison could be on the block. The cavalry of defenders won't start being delivered until 2024. They need 1 more year before they will see O'Rourke, Hunt, Lambos ready, with Johansson as a wild card. To paraphrase "What About Bob," baby steps to 2024!

Could Dumba bet on himself? Might he take a very low 1 year deal to try and elevate his stock? By very low, I'm talking in the $1m range. It sounds preposterous! But, this is the worst time this cycle to be an UFA. You'd be familiar with your surroundings, still have your community, and be comfortable with your teammates. One thing desperately needed is a better showing statistically to get that next decent contract before retiring. 

How could this play out? Well, Dumba would head off to free agency after the league year ends. He finds out from his agent that offers are less than expected....quite a bit less. His agent informs him that most competing teams have no money. It's not that his market value is so low, it's that nobody has the money to give him close to what he should expect. He reaches out to Guerin in the mid August area and they work out an agreement.

Next year should see a significant boost in the cap, even though the Wild will still be lagging $15m for another year. Teams will have money to throw at 30 year old defenders who hopefully have gone to the basement and refound their offensive game. This could very easily be a win-win scenario for both the club and the player. While I realize that Dumba is smaller, he plays bigger than his measurements. I could see this being a very short term solution, almost a thank you for keeping him through 2 expansion drafts.

I believe Guerin will want the best for Dumba and that he gets a nice new deal. I also believe Guerin would love to have Dumba back and doesn't really see a way he can keep him. We can all see the numbers. But about 2/3rds of the teams also have brutal cap numbers. 

[mnfaninnc]

I think it would be a real coup if we could somehow get Blackwood into the system. I'm not sure how that would work out with Goose2 and The Wall, but when Blackwood's "on," he's really, really good. I could see him needing some A time to get his game back, but a structured team like the Wild is a perfect fit for him. We should get a reputation of being a goalie rehab center!

[Protec]

Wallstedt got AHL Prospect Team honors. 

Although so did Reichel who was picked at 17th overall by Chicago. Already chipping in at the NHL level. Chicago is already on it's way back. Weird... It's almost like Minneapolis/St.Paul is like the red-headed, step-child of corruption benefits compared to especially LA, NY, CHI, and Vegas. Nah, probably just a coincidence I think. 🤔 

[mnfaninnc]

20 minutes ago, Protec said:

It's almost like Minneapolis/St.Paul is like the red-headed, step-child of corruption benefits compared to especially LA, NY, CHI, and Vegas. Nah, probably just a coincidence I think. 🤔 

Absolutely surprised that Montreal isn't in that list!

For a comparison, I believe Rockford was the Blackhawks affiliate. They were the team that beat Iowa out of the playoffs, twice in OT. The games went into OT almost all season long. They were very evenly matched. I'd like to see how that goes this coming year too. 

Also, the Milwaukee Admirals made the A Western Conference finals. Of note was Askarov, the Admirals' goalie. He finished 6-6 with a .903 sv%. I suspect he got shelled a couple of those games. He played in 3/4 of the games. I'm looking for The Wall to perform like this in next year's Calder Cup run! 

Askarov and The Wall will have a very nice goalie rivalry for many years I predict. This should be fun to watch. 

[mnfaninnc]

More rumors:

It's looking more and more like the Jets are going to have to blow it up. Think about this, the Blues, Blackhawks, Jets and Preds all are having to transition. AZ is in a perpetual state of confusion and that leaves Dallas, Colorado and MN as likely playoff teams. That's the state of the Central Division.

PLD is again seeking a trade. I'm not sure if it's Montreal or bust, but we know he wants to play there. If PLD were available, and there are also rumors about Schiefele and Hellebuyck being moved, would we be a decent landing spot for PLD? Could we extend him properly? 

The only way I can see the money working is for Zuccarello and Foligno to be in the equation. Neither of them would be considered part of the compensation, that's just to make the money work here. We'd be giving up draft picks and prospects, likely. Would PLD fix our center conundrum? Could we run with PLD, Ek, Rossi and Dewar down the middle? Would PLD want to play with Kaprizov? 

[mnfaninnc]

I found this interesting about contracts. We have several players in Euro leagues. I'm not sure what they get paid in their respective leagues, but I'd have to believe that in the K, players do pretty well.

Quote

All entry-level contracts are two-way contracts. For players on entry-level contracts, the maximum minor-league salary is $70,000. If a player on a two-way contract is sent to the minor-leagues, their salary does not count towards the salary cap. 

Why is this important? Look at the salary in the A, the ELC is pretty straight forward. Yet, if the Euro import trains in Russian leagues, he should do better. ELC minor league salary has been set at $70k for quite awhile. With inflation, it has not changed and probably won't change until the next CBA negotiations. 

Why would a Khus^&*( or a Yurov want to come over here and play in the A? They're in a good league probably making close to an ELC NHL portion. I have no idea on Ohgren. Since the NHL has an agreement with the Swedish and Finnish leagues, perhaps they get 2 checks, 1 from the NHL team who is loaning the player and one from the Swedish/Finnish team? To me, it looked like Firstov's ELC had a year burned on loan to the K. 

My suspicion is this, the Euro players are going to develop in Europe and make more money. They will want to make the jump to the N when coming over and avoid the $70k salary as much as possible. This probably means that The Wall is wanting to get into the N sooner rather than later, and it would probably be in the Wild's best interest to make sure The Wall debuts next season.

Also, here are some slide rules:

Quote

The NHL has what is called an "entry-level slide." If a player signs his entry-level contract and is either 18 or 19 years old before September 15 of the signing year and does not play 10 games in the NHL that season, their entry-level contract is extended by one year. 

There are some exceptions. If a player is 19 years old on September 15 of their signing year but turns 20 between September 16 and December 31, the contract does not slide. In addition, a player who is 18 on September 15 of their signing year may get to slide the contract for two years, unless they turn 19 between September 16 and December 31. Then it only slides for one year. 

 

[MNCountryLife]

15 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

This probably means that The Wall is wanting to get into the N sooner rather than later, and it would probably be in the Wild's best interest to make sure The Wall debuts next season.

I agree.  But we can't have 3 goalies.  So either Fleury retires or is traded, or Gus is traded.  If that happens it puts an extra $3M in our back pocket.  One in which we may be able to sign Dumba for $3M with a team friendly contract.  I do like that.

[mnfaninnc]

3 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

I agree.  But we can't have 3 goalies.  So either Fleury retires or is traded, or Gus is traded.  If that happens it puts an extra $3M in our back pocket.  One in which we may be able to sign Dumba for $3M with a team friendly contract.  I do like that.

The way I see it is Fleury may spend some time on IR and instead of McIntyre getting the call up, The Wall gets it this season. He may just get to sit on the bench and backup, or he might get in a couple of games. 

It could also be that Fleury spends most of the year here and is traded at the TDL to a team needing a reliable backup. The Wall moves up after that. I would think, though, that the Wild want The Wall to play a leading role in a Calder Cup run in the A before graduating here.

[Up North Guy]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Conventional wisdom would state that there is no way Matt Dumba comes back, we simply can't afford him. I realize Revolving Hockey has him listed higher, but Dumba's production really places him at around a $4m/yr. contract. 

But, not so fast. Dumba, along with some other UFA players of other teams are entering a year where most teams are going into the season using LTIR, and with the cap only going up $1m, the choices are the bottom feeder teams for the most part. 

All said, and this will be the last year for this in the current cycle, to be a UFA this year is just a terrible storm of finance. The current trend among GMs is to pay the RFAs off their potential, and with the cap staying mostly stagnant that leaves little room for the UFAs. We did this with Boldy and Kaprizov, and might be doing it with Goose2.

So, where might Matt Dumba fit? You'd think from a capitalistic standpoint that he'd take the best deal he could find. But, that "best financial deal" is likely coming from a team on the rise just hoping to make the playoffs. I could see and Ottawa or Detroit being interested, but not really breaking the bank. 

How does this affect the Wild? Well, Dumba's already got a pretty good community network here. It's been his home for a decade. He wears an A which likely makes him very connected to this group of guys. The Wild are very likely to gain another playoff invitation, and in his mind, there is some unfinished business with this club. Dumba isn't really that old, he'll be 29 when next season starts. While he's been injured, D usually get a little better with age and can compensate for physical decline with increased anticipation. 

From the Wild's perspective, it looks like Faber is in line to take a defensive spot. It also appears that Addison could be on the block. The cavalry of defenders won't start being delivered until 2024. They need 1 more year before they will see O'Rourke, Hunt, Lambos ready, with Johansson as a wild card. To paraphrase "What About Bob," baby steps to 2024!

Could Dumba bet on himself? Might he take a very low 1 year deal to try and elevate his stock? By very low, I'm talking in the $1m range. It sounds preposterous! But, this is the worst time this cycle to be an UFA. You'd be familiar with your surroundings, still have your community, and be comfortable with your teammates. One thing desperately needed is a better showing statistically to get that next decent contract before retiring. 

How could this play out? Well, Dumba would head off to free agency after the league year ends. He finds out from his agent that offers are less than expected....quite a bit less. His agent informs him that most competing teams have no money. It's not that his market value is so low, it's that nobody has the money to give him close to what he should expect. He reaches out to Guerin in the mid August area and they work out an agreement.

Next year should see a significant boost in the cap, even though the Wild will still be lagging $15m for another year. Teams will have money to throw at 30 year old defenders who hopefully have gone to the basement and refound their offensive game. This could very easily be a win-win scenario for both the club and the player. While I realize that Dumba is smaller, he plays bigger than his measurements. I could see this being a very short term solution, almost a thank you for keeping him through 2 expansion drafts.

I believe Guerin will want the best for Dumba and that he gets a nice new deal. I also believe Guerin would love to have Dumba back and doesn't really see a way he can keep him. We can all see the numbers. But about 2/3rds of the teams also have brutal cap numbers. 

I have been thinking along these lines for a while also. BG has shown that he will do handshake deals and follow through on them. He also likes Dumba a lot. I think if this happens it will happen sooner than mid-August. The team will not be able to hold out too long.

[mnfaninnc]

12 minutes ago, Up North Guy said:

The team will not be able to hold out too long.

Don't you think if we go UFA shopping we'll have to? We're going to have to choose from the scratch and dent section and try to pick up someone who isn't overly valued by other teams, or, in this case, have no money to shop with. 

I would think for this deal to work out, we're going to have to show patience AND watch the attrition of other teams' cap, specifically, the top 20 competitive teams.

As for Detroit, they may seem to have some money, but they had to pay Larkin, and have to pay Seider and Raymond. 

[Protec]

Dubois is a perennial complainer and bad apple as far as I'm concerned. He's pouted and whined and played when he wants to in Columbus and Winnipeg. I'd stay far away from that guy.

Wild should be looking to the future with young players who can be molded into Wild culture. No projects or remediations please.

[mnfaninnc]

Looks like DeBrincat will once again be on the move. It was reported that he turned down negotiating a longterm offer from the Sens. Still no word as to exactly why, but he did say he didn't want to live in Canada for the next 8 years. 

The speculation is between Ottawa as an attraction or destination place vs. the Ownership issue in question. Originally, DeBrincat had wanted to see how the ownership situation was going to work its way out, but it's been slow going for those involved in the process. DeBrincat's got windows he has to work with, so it doesn't look like he will have the time to wait.

According to the rumor, he has submitted teams he's interested in playing for to the Sens. To me, this seems a little public, but it just sounds a lot like how things happened within the cone of silence of the Fiala trade. I maintain that MN was not a destination for Fiala, that he wanted to head to a warm climate city on a coast, and have no supporting evidence to substantiate the claim.

MN is not on DeBrincat's list, allegedly, but St. Louis is. Curiously, Detroit seems to also be, as he is from Michigan.  If Detroit were to land DeBrincat, I'd have to expect #17 headed to Ottawa. 

[mnfaninnc]

CBJ is staying in the news. Days after collecting Ivan Provorov, they struck again landing Damon Severson. Apparently, it's a sign and trade deal with the Devils 8 X $6.25m.

CBJ had one of the worst defenses in hockey last season. They've got 2 solid top 4 defenders before the SCFs is complete for next season! 

Also, Severson played 3rd pairing last season for NJ, but will move back into the top 4 with CBJ.

[Dango]

Right now Im interested in guys that dont have high expectations,  the  7mill a year vets. Id be more interested in evolving prospects with some NHL playing time to see what we can get out of them , fairly reasonable priced guys such as example Datch a 6-4 200 lb center whos shown some promise but hasnt yet earned the big $$$ ,   early 20s  be perfect to develope with our young guys .   I know were cap strapped and cant do anything major  but i can be entertained watching guys develope aswell  .

[mnfaninnc]

On 6/9/2023 at 10:12 PM, Dango said:

fairly reasonable priced guys such as example Datch a 6-4 200 lb center whos shown some promise but hasnt yet earned the big $$$ ,   early 20s  be perfect to develope with our young guys .

Is this a reference to current Canadien's center Kirby Dach?

[Dango]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Is this a reference to current Canadien's center Kirby Dach?

Yeah ,  Dont know alot about him personally but  i like the numbers , tall 6-2 center with some weight 200s , young 20s ,  affordable contract and term also gets through the cap doldrums .  But if guys like that can even be had who knows .