Zuccarello Must Become More Than Kaprizov's Wingman

Bad news for the Minnesota Wild got worse over the weekend when Bill Guerin announced Kirill Kaprizov would miss more time than initially expected.

Kaprizov is still leading the Wild with 52 points and was having a Hart Trophy-level campaign before injuries derailed his season. He has missed 15 games with a nagging lower-body injury. His extended absence will be difficult for the Wild, considering they now find themselves in a battle for playoff seeding.

Kaprizov’s injury is terrible news for the Wild organization, especially for Mats Zuccarello. The 37-year-old forward has had another solid season for the Wild, with 36 points in 44 games. The veteran winger has been a solid contributor since Minnesota signed him in 2019-20. 

Zuccarello broke out with the Wild in 2021-22, scoring a career-high 79 points. He instantly found chemistry with Kaprizov, leading to Zuccarello’s second act after becoming a fan favorite with the New York Rangers.

“It was right away,” Kaprizov said before this season. “First game.”

However, Zuccarello must become more than a wingman with Kaprizov out for extended time. However, that may prove difficult. Zuccarello's metrics experience a sharp drop-off when you compare his line’s expected goals percentage with Kaprizov against how the same line performs when Matt Boldy draws in.

(Source: Moneypuck.com.)

The primary issue with deploying Zuccarello is figuring out what to do with him when he isn’t contributing offensively. With declining speed and a small frame, Zuccarello isn’t equipped to play a bottom-six role. 

The winger is largely only effective as a scoring option. The Wild have built their bottom six to be big, physical, and play sound defense. Zuccarello is 5-foot-8, 179 lbs., and has never been known for his physical game. Natural Stat Trick ranks him last on the Wild for expected goals against per 60 minutes. 

Minnesota can’t change Zuccarello’s role; he must be able to produce without Kaprizov. Zuccarello must produce without Kaprizov to help keep the Wild in the playoff race. 

That leads to a natural question: How has Zuccarello played without Kaprizov this year? Unfortunately, the answer isn’t so simple.

Zuccarello has scored 36 points this season. That’s good for fourth on the team, and he’s done that in just 44 games. Of those 36 points, 18 of them have been on goals that Kaprizov assisted on or Kaprizov goals that Zuccarello assisted on. The other half has no involvement between Zuccarello and the Russian star. 

While he’s scored half his points with Kaprizov, Zucarrello has shown he can produce independently. Zuccarello’s offensive output was especially apparent during a hot streak where the Norwegian forward scored 13 points in 10 games from January 4 to 25. Unfortunately, there’s bad news. Since the end of that streak, he’s produced only one point in eight games.

(Source: ESPN.com.)

The Wild have won games in that time frame, but having a top-six forward who doesn't produce offense or play solid defense could be detrimental to future results if they don't change. It will be crucial for the Wild to put Zuccarello in as good of a position for him as possible.

Zuccarello may play his best hockey with Kaprizov, and he's aging. He still has the skills to be a valuable contributor, but the team must put him in a position to succeed.

One of Zuccarello's greatest strengths is as a powerplay specialist. He can use his creativity, vision, and passing ability to create scoring chances with a man advantage on the ice. Over the previous three seasons, much of Zuccarello’s point production has come on the power play.

From 2021-22 to 2023-24, Zuccarello had 21 goals and 39 assists on the powerplay unit. That's roughly a rate of .28 powerplay points per game. This season, he's scored two goals and logged eight assists for ten points in 44 games (.22 powerplay points per game). If the Wild can make Zuccarello the focal point of their extra-attacker unit, it could go a long way in him contributing positively.

Encouraging Zuccarello to be more assertive offensively would be another positive step. In his best offensive seasons, he averaged more than 2.25 shots per game. This year, he's had the lowest number of shots per game in the last four seasons.

Mats Zuccarello Shooting Stats

The Wild can get more out of Zuccarello if they encourage him to shoot more and he plays a more assertive style. That becomes especially effective when he’s a focal point on the powerplay. 

There’s precedent for that this season. In the ten-game span of games previously mentioned, Zuccarello scored 13 points in 10 games and had 30 shots in that time. In that same span of games, Zuccarello had four assists on the man advantage. 

It will be difficult for Zuccarello to be productive with Kaprizov out longer than expected, but the Wild need him to provide secondary offense. They can’t bump him down lower in the lineup because his skillset doesn’t fit that style of play, and he makes too much money ($4,125,000 cap hit) to be on the bench if his scoring drought continues. 

The Wild need Zuccarello to be more than Kaprizov’s wingman. That’s been a challenging prospect in recent games, but there is a blueprint for him to be a critical contributor.