By Tony Abbott -
Minnesota Wild fans are looking at the ice, watching the controversial grinder of a forward their favorite team paid a big price for in the offseason with a four-year contract. He's got one point in his last 14 games, and though the Wild have played well, they're still thinking This was the guy who was supposed to make Minnesota harder to play against?
The date is December 30, 2017. Marcus Foligno was in the midst of his first season in Minnesota after the Wild traded Jason Pominville to acquire him in a four-player deal, then inked him to a four-year contract that summer. The move was met with confusion and skepticism. Foligno had never scored more than 23 points in a season. However, he matched that number in his first year in Minnesota. Foligno also often played the fourth line, which didn't make his $2.83 million salary any less confusing.
Now, of course, we know better. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, Foligno's been one of the premier defensive wingers in the NHL while chipping in goals at a rate of 17 per 82 games. That skepticism and confusion is firmly in the past.
After his first 14 games in a Wild sweater, Yakov Trenin is in the crosshairs of the fanbase's skepticism. It's understandable why. Bill Guerin's front office took Minnesota's limited resources this offseason and splurged on a four-year, $3.5 million AAV for the tough winger.
"We needed size," Guerin explained at the time. "We needed grit."
Translation: they needed another Foligno.
We're only 4% of the way through Trenin's contract. However, a wave of buyer's remorse is already spreading through the fanbase. One assist in 14 games is probably going to do that, but John Hynes doesn't appear to think Trenin is cutting it quite yet. Hynes has already demoted Trenin to the fourth line, and it's not too much farther of a leap for him to be healthy scratched.
But while the 0.07 points per game mark stands out like a sore thumb, the Wild have gotten the Foligno-type player they paid for.
Foligo's offensive contributions are welcome, but every Wild fan knows why he's in St. Paul. His job is to defend hard... with emphasis on the word "hard." He's one of the NHL's heaviest hitters on a team that's not known for having a lot of beef in the lineup. Foligno does both jobs to perfection.
Of 345 forwards with 2000-plus minutes at 5-on-5 since the 2020-21 season, Foligno is 10th in hits per hour (15.5) and eighth in goals allowed per hour (1.84). Trenin has a similar profile, being 31st in hits per hour (11.2) and seventh in goals allowed per hour (1.83).
What's changed for Trenin this year? Not a lot. The physicality is still there (12.5 per hour), and he's only been tagged for three goals against in 159 5-on-5 minutes. He's also been, statistically, the best defensive forward in hockey this year. Trenin's 1.35 expected goals allowed per hour is No. 1 in the NHL (among 360 forwards with 100-plus minutes), which means that he's tops on a team that includes defensive standouts like Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy.
Now, are the points going to come? Probably, at least to some degree. The Wild are only generating 1.77 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5 with Trenin on the ice, but historically, Trenin fares a little better than that -- his career average in Nashville was 2.36 xG per hour.
We might not see the offensive heights that Foligno's had in Minnesota, but things should break Trenin's way a bit if he keeps playing this way. It's possible that Trenin's slow start spirals out into an uninspiring time in Minnesota, but the safe prediction is that Wild fans will come to see the "Moose"-like side of "Yak" in due time.
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