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  • Yakov Trenin Is On the Marcus Foligno Track


    Image courtesy of Sam Navarro - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    Minnesota Wild fans are looking at the ice, watching the controversial grinder of a forward their favorite team paid a big price for in the offseason with a four-year contract. He's got one point in his last 14 games, and though the Wild have played well, they're still thinking This was the guy who was supposed to make Minnesota harder to play against?

    The date is December 30, 2017. Marcus Foligno was in the midst of his first season in Minnesota after the Wild traded Jason Pominville to acquire him in a four-player deal, then inked him to a four-year contract that summer. The move was met with confusion and skepticism. Foligno had never scored more than 23 points in a season. However, he matched that number in his first year in Minnesota. Foligno also often played the fourth line, which didn't make his $2.83 million salary any less confusing.

    Now, of course, we know better. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, Foligno's been one of the premier defensive wingers in the NHL while chipping in goals at a rate of 17 per 82 games. That skepticism and confusion is firmly in the past.

    After his first 14 games in a Wild sweater, Yakov Trenin is in the crosshairs of the fanbase's skepticism. It's understandable why. Bill Guerin's front office took Minnesota's limited resources this offseason and splurged on a four-year, $3.5 million AAV for the tough winger.

    "We needed size," Guerin explained at the time. "We needed grit."

    Translation: they needed another Foligno.

    We're only 4% of the way through Trenin's contract. However, a wave of buyer's remorse is already spreading through the fanbase. One assist in 14 games is probably going to do that, but John Hynes doesn't appear to think Trenin is cutting it quite yet. Hynes has already demoted Trenin to the fourth line, and it's not too much farther of a leap for him to be healthy scratched.

    But while the 0.07 points per game mark stands out like a sore thumb, the Wild have gotten the Foligno-type player they paid for. 

    Foligo's offensive contributions are welcome, but every Wild fan knows why he's in St. Paul. His job is to defend hard... with emphasis on the word "hard." He's one of the NHL's heaviest hitters on a team that's not known for having a lot of beef in the lineup. Foligno does both jobs to perfection.

    Of 345 forwards with 2000-plus minutes at 5-on-5 since the 2020-21 season, Foligno is 10th in hits per hour (15.5) and eighth in goals allowed per hour (1.84). Trenin has a similar profile, being 31st in hits per hour (11.2) and seventh in goals allowed per hour (1.83). 

    What's changed for Trenin this year? Not a lot. The physicality is still there (12.5 per hour), and he's only been tagged for three goals against in 159 5-on-5 minutes. He's also been, statistically, the best defensive forward in hockey this year. Trenin's 1.35 expected goals allowed per hour is No. 1 in the NHL (among 360 forwards with 100-plus minutes), which means that he's tops on a team that includes defensive standouts like Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy.

    Now, are the points going to come? Probably, at least to some degree. The Wild are only generating 1.77 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5 with Trenin on the ice, but historically, Trenin fares a little better than that -- his career average in Nashville was 2.36 xG per hour.

    We might not see the offensive heights that Foligno's had in Minnesota, but things should break Trenin's way a bit if he keeps playing this way. It's possible that Trenin's slow start spirals out into an uninspiring time in Minnesota, but the safe prediction is that Wild fans will come to see the "Moose"-like side of "Yak" in due time.

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    The jobs of 3rd and 4th line guys are to not let goals happen.  He's hitting people and he's not letting goals in...so I don't see the problem.  He's not a faster guy like Lauko and Khusnutdinov.  He's not going to be that kind of player.  

    This team is built on playing close, and letting the best offensive players get theirs.  Sure enough, they are winning right now (or mitigating losing skids) by always feeling like they are in a game.  Hell, they played like absolute dogshit (all of them) and still got a point in Chicago.  

    Trenin is what they signed: a 3rd/4h line guy doing 3rd/4th line things.  A few penalties here and there, but otherwise a balancing act for a lot of smaller skill guys.  I get the fanbase always wants a scapegoat.  Ohgren's back in the AHL, and Mojo isn't going anywhere until the trading deadline...if that.  so, the onus falls on Trenin to be the ire of the naysayers.

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    37 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I'll stand down on Trenin.

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    Yes, his on-ice even strength goal differential is 6-3, and that 66.7% goal differential percentage even strength is top 100 along with JEE. This is small sample size, and probably doesn't stay quite that high, but the Wild are winning by getting goals from the top 2 lines and not allowing many goals.

    Trenin seems to be doing his job. His goals for versus goals against in all situations is 7 goals for and 5 against due to 2 PP goals against his PK unit. Apparently, he stepped on the ice for a power play goal for as well.

    Also noted while I was looking that up, Kaprizov is leading the entire NHL in even strength on-ice goal differential at +15, good for a 72.7% even strength goals for percentage.

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    I haven't had a problem with the way he is playing.  Nothing flashy, defensive side is adequate, not a deficit to the team like Nojo, he plays big and seems to be improving.  Nojo is a much bigger issue as far as I am concerned.  It also seems like 1 or 2 players let off the gas peddle most games.  I would like to see Hynes benching players and keeping them on the bench when they are not performing.

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    4 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I'll stand down on Trenin.  While he doesn't pass the eye test for me it sounds like his Corsi scores (however the F those are calculated) are positive.

    Divide Wild shot attempts by total shot attempts.

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    22 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

    Divide Wild shot attempts by total shot attempts.

    Thanks Tony.  To clarify, this is

    (Wild shot attempts)/(Total shot attempts for both teams)

    while Trenin is on the ice?  If Wild shot attempts as % of total is higher when Trenin is on ice that would say that Trenin presence:

    1) leads to more Wild shots

    and/or

    2) fewer opponent shots

    Is that it?

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    Sometimes think about cancelling my Athletic subscription, but stories like today's make it a tough choice.

    The Wild have a new "Choose your Hard" thing happening...and I'll just drop some quotes to help communicate what that means.image.png.2abfbb8a7f29968587ef2c8184556023.png

    Quote

     

    It’s hard to lose in the NHL, but it’s even harder to win.

    It’s hard to block that point-blank shot. Hard to hustle on the backcheck. Hard to win that board battle or race for the puck. Hard to do the little things and the painful things to pull out 2 points.

    Last season, missing the playoffs the way the Wild did, was even harder, though.

    That was the feedback players gave to Hynes, the Wild’s second-year coach, in exit meetings.

    Spurgeon and Foligno spitballed what would best represent “hard.”

    Foligno reached out to Hartman, who often has bright ideas and also epitomizes “hard” … from his style of play to his blue-collar beard that can grow from clean-shaven to Grizzly Adams in a matter of days.

    “He said, ‘It’s usually a chain,'” Foligno remembered. “So then Hartzy designed the whole thing.”

    The day before the season opener, Hartman went to Home Depot and bought the thickest steel chain he could find — one that can pull a 1,500-pound load.

    The treasured prize has been handed around the locker room 10 times thus far this season.

    “It goes to the guy who not necessarily puts up the most points in a game,” Foligno said.

    As Hartman said, “Otherwise Kirill (Kaprizov) could win it every game. Sometimes you want to spread it out.”

    “We give it to the guy who maybe at the end of the game blocks three shots or lays the big check or broke up the big play with a backcheck,” Foligno said.

    “The reason this truly resonated with the guys is because everybody was singing the same tune, but then really defining what does it mean, and then committing to it.”

     

     

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    Boy, if it were me, I'd say that Gustavsson should be wearing the chain regularly too. He was personally responsible for 1 point against Chicago, and held us in there against the Ducks late. Plus goalie goal earlier probably always earns you the chain!

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    I haven't been disappointed with Trenin thus far. I thought he'd be faster, but switching him to line 4 may have been more of a chemistry thing where Freddy can center Foligno and Hartman. That leaves 2 lines that can bring the beef if necessary. 

    I thought the last 2 games he played he looked better. I have no idea if he is a slow starter offensively, but like Dino, he may be trying to take care of his own end 1st and will start to venture out offensively once he's comfortable with the defensive side.

    The bottom line is this: We're winning games. Complain all you want but this is a complete team game they're playing and he hasn't been a bust. Heck, even Johansson is finishing checks and playing more aggressively.

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    13 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Boy, if it were me, I'd say that Gustavsson should be wearing the chain regularly too. He was personally responsible for 1 point against Chicago, and held us in there against the Ducks late. Plus goalie goal earlier probably always earns you the chain!

    Gus sure has been playing like a #1 goalie lately with some solid performances.  I've noticed a trend though.  When playing Gus every night his game appears to fall off.  He seems to do better with some rest between games.  It appears to me that Gus is best suited for a split duty role or an extremely good backup role.  I would be curious to see stats on how well Gus performs when playing fresh vs playing in his 2nd or 3rd game in a row.  Thoughts?

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    22 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I thought he'd be faster

    I think this is the main reason for fan concerns regarding Trenin. I’m kinda shocked he’s rated as the #1 best defensive player in the NHL. The eye test for me isn’t picking up on that. I guess that’s why the stats guys are so important. As noted above he’s certainly built for playoff hockey. I’m glad the Wild acquired him for nothing. 

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