By Luke Sims -
Jake Guentzel is not from Minnesota but is one of our own. He was born in Omaha, Neb., but played two seasons of high school hockey at Hill Murray. Guentzel recently wrapped up his season with the Carolina Panthers, losing in Round 2 to the New York Rangers. After playing seven years in Pittsburgh and one in Carolina, Guentzel will be an unrestricted free agent.
Could he make it a homecoming in Minnesota?
Guentzel signed a five-year, $30 million contract after his contract ended in 2019. He had 40 goals and 76 points in 2018-19, his third season in the league. After signing an extension with the Pittsburgh Penguins, he became one of the best top-six wingers in the game.
He scored over a point per game in every season except one, and Guentzel’s production carried over to Carolina. After Pittsburgh traded him at the deadline, he had 25 points in 17 regular-season games for the Hurricanes. Guentzel, 29, is in his prime and will get to test the free agent market for the first time in his career.
He’s probably due for a raise, eh?
A few weeks ago, The Athletic’s Michael Russo and Joe Smith wrote that the Wild cannot enter next season with Marcus Johansson as their only left-wing option on the second line. The Wild could give a prospect like Liam Ohgren, 20, those minutes. However, Minnesota’s brass does not typically reward young players with playing time until they’ve ‘earned it.’
Enter Guentzel. The left-handed winger would be a perfect fit for the Wild’s top six. Gunetzel has a skill set that complements any team and any line. He’s simply a dynamic hockey player. Guentzel has potted 40 goals twice and 36 in another season. He also recorded over 30 assists five times. Slot him in with Minnesota’s trio of elite wingers, and he’ll fill out the top six.
With Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Mats Zuccarello under contract for next season, Guentzel would make a perfect fourth horseman. Adding Guentzel would give John Hynes the flexibility to use whichever center he wants on the first or second line while not relying on Marcus Johansson to put up points in the second-line left-wing spot.
Guentzel is also lethal on the power play. He routinely finished behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for points on Pittsburgh’s power play. Adding Guentzel to the Wild’s lineup gives them top-end flexibility at even strength and on the powerplay.
The Hockey News projects Guentzels's next deal to be six years, $48 million. The Wild cannot afford that. Their current cap situation is dire, but they have some room to work with. Minnesota currently has a little less than $6 million to work with.
The team does not have any major free agents to re-sign. Mason Shaw and Jake Lucchini are the only forwards up for new deals. Alex Goligoski, Declan Chisholm, and Dakota Mermis are also free agents.
Only Chisholm would require a one-way contract, and he would probably sign a team-friendly deal. Goligoski will probably retire or skate elsewhere next season. Shaw, Lucchini, and Mermis only need two-way deals. Together, they will cost no more than $1 to $1.5 million against the cap. For the sake of argument, let’s say it’s on the low end. That gives the Wild five million bucks to go after Guentzel.
That’s a $3 million difference from where Guentzel is projected to what the Wild can offer. But if Gunetzel wants to play on a team with elite players and be close to his roots, maybe that can make up for that difference.
Gunetzel will be a sought-after commodity this offseason. Teams with more than five million dollars to spend will offer him contracts greater than the Wild can offer.
While it’s a long shot, Guentzel return to skate in the arena where he played in the Minnesota State Tournament. He would be a welcome addition to the Wild’s top six. It’s a pipe dream, but he may feel the allure of returning home.
All stats and data via HockeyDB, Elite Prospects, Evolving Hockey, and Capfriendly unless otherwise noted.
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