Will Kaprizov's Injury History Turn His New Contract Into An Albatross?

Minnesota Wild fans should check their stockings because Christmas is finally coming. 

The Wild are reportedly offering Kirill Kaprizov a record-breaking 8-year, $120 million contract extension. If both sides agree to the contract, Kaprizov will have the highest-ever AAV for a winger at $15 million, which is a significant increase from his current $9 million AAV. The extension will keep Kaprizov on the Wild until 2034. 

Minnesota has made its intentions to lock down Kaprizov clear. Wild owner Craig Leipold said that “nobody will offer more money than us, or longer.” However, they can offer Kaprizov 8 years, whereas other teams can only offer 7 years. 

People may get sticker shock when they see that offer, but Kaprizov is worth every penny – assuming he stays healthy. Kaprizov’s health is a significant variable that will determine whether the Wild get value on his 8-year deal. To understand how Kaprizov’s health will impact the contract, we will assume he continues to play at his current level or better until the contract expires. 

The Wild have offered him an eight-year deal, so the NHL’s rising cap limit will have a considerable impact on whether they get fair value on the deal. The NHL set the cap at $88 million for the 2024-25 season, so the 2025-26 cap was expected to be $92.4 million. However, the NHL announced that the actual amounts will be $95.5 million, followed by $104 million for the 2026-27 season and $113.5 million for the 2027-28 season. 

The cap remained at $81.5 million from the 2019-20 season through the 2021-22 season due to losses incurred during the quarantine, and the NHL only raised it to $82.5 million in 2022-23. However, previously, the cap raise was usually $2 to $4 million per season, so the $10 million per year was still unexpected. 

Kaprizov’s representatives and the Wild will have taken these price hikes into account. However, no one can fully predict the cap in the 2030s, and 8-year contracts have inherent risk for both parties. 

The bigger issue is Kaprizov’s injury history, which continues to accumulate. In the 2022-23 season, Logan Stanley fell on Kaprizov, injuring his leg. 

 In November of 2024, Kaprizov suffered a knee-on-knee collision with Drake Caggiula. 

While the collision was not considered a major injury, Kaprizov suffered another lower-body injury later in the season. He played through December 23, 2024, but the Wild ruled him day-to-day over the winter break for an undisclosed lower-body injury. He returned January 23, 2025, and played 3 games before the NHL announced Kaprizov needed surgery and would be out at least 4 more weeks. 

Minnesota GM Bill Guerin noted that Kaprizov was only playing at “60 percent” and was still “better than most players in the league.” However, he ultimately had to rest and heal. Kaprizov missed 28 games and finally returned to play on April 9, 2025. 

Kaprizov’s lower-body injuries are likely related. A study on lower limb muscle injuries in athletes found that athletes recovering from a previous muscle injury “may exhibit biomechanical abnormalities or neuromuscular control alterations, making them more prone to reinjury, not only in the same structure or muscle.” 

Kaprizov may have healed from Stanley falling on top of him or his collision with Caggiula. Still, these previous injuries likely contributed to the lower-body injury that caused him to miss nearly every regular-season game in 2025. Another study found that “players whose first injury involved the lower body had a 1.5-times higher risk of a second lower body injury during the same season.” Kaprizov is a lot more likely to end up missing games due to injury than other players who have managed to stay healthy. 

The Wild’s medical team is another factor that could lead to potential injuries. They came under scrutiny earlier this season during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. Bill Guerin was Team USA’s general manager for the tournament and used the Wild’s medical staff to treat players, including Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy.

When McAvoy returned to Boston, he developed increasing pain and was reevaluated by the Bruins' medical staff, who found an infection in his shoulder and injury to his AC joint. The Bruins called the Wild medical staff out, saying they were “extremely unhappy” with how it was handled. 

The Wild also experienced internal medical issues this past season, notably with Joel Eriksson Ek attempting to play on a broken leg. There’s undoubtedly pressure on the medical team to clear players as soon as possible from the players, coaches, fans, and management. However, the quick return to play has only hurt Minnesota’s roster. 

In general, clinicians use a list of criteria in order to clear a player, such as muscle strength assessment and pain monitoring. However, aspects such as rating pain can be subjective, and players who show no symptoms may still reinjure themselves. 

Despite missing 41 games and playing at “60%”, Kaprizov came in third for points this past season with 56, behind Matt Boldy (73 points) and Marco Rossi (60 points). 

It’s challenging to predict what Kaprizov’s production levels will look like at full health. His best production was in his second season, 2021-22, when he had 108 points in 81 games. His early career point production is comparable to Connor McDavid’s, who was producing 108 points over 82 games by his third season. 

The injury risk is there with every player, especially when they have 20+ minutes of ice time every game. McDavid has played as few as 56 games in a season due to injury and suspensions, and the Oilers aren’t trading him away anytime soon. 

Edmonton just signed Leon Draisaitl to an 8-year, $14 million AAV contract and will likely extend McDavid for even more. Draisaitl or McDavid have both had at least 100 points in the last 4 seasons. Kaprizov will be a comparable player if he can consistently put up 100+ points per year.

If Kaprizov stays healthy and remains productive, Minnesota will have struck a good deal. If Kaprizov gets reinjured, he’ll still produce an impressive amount of points for the Wild. However, he is at risk for reinjury, and if he only plays in half the games, $15 million will become a hefty price tag. The NHL’s unpredictable cap also has the potential to sway the overall value of the contract. 

Ultimately, it’s a risk the Wild must take because Kaprizov has become their franchise player. Still, even extending a player as good as Kaprizov comes with some inherent risk. Christmas morning may have finally come for Minnesota, even if we don’t fully know what’s in the stocking.