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  • Will Kaprizov's Injury History Turn His New Contract Into An Albatross?


    Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgarn-Imagn Images
    Bekki Antonelli

    Minnesota Wild fans should check their stockings because Christmas is finally coming. 

    The Wild are reportedly offering Kirill Kaprizov a record-breaking 8-year, $120 million contract extension. If both sides agree to the contract, Kaprizov will have the highest-ever AAV for a winger at $15 million, which is a significant increase from his current $9 million AAV. The extension will keep Kaprizov on the Wild until 2034. 

    Minnesota has made its intentions to lock down Kaprizov clear. Wild owner Craig Leipold said that “nobody will offer more money than us, or longer.” However, they can offer Kaprizov 8 years, whereas other teams can only offer 7 years. 

    People may get sticker shock when they see that offer, but Kaprizov is worth every penny – assuming he stays healthy. Kaprizov’s health is a significant variable that will determine whether the Wild get value on his 8-year deal. To understand how Kaprizov’s health will impact the contract, we will assume he continues to play at his current level or better until the contract expires. 

    The Wild have offered him an eight-year deal, so the NHL’s rising cap limit will have a considerable impact on whether they get fair value on the deal. The NHL set the cap at $88 million for the 2024-25 season, so the 2025-26 cap was expected to be $92.4 million. However, the NHL announced that the actual amounts will be $95.5 million, followed by $104 million for the 2026-27 season and $113.5 million for the 2027-28 season. 

    The cap remained at $81.5 million from the 2019-20 season through the 2021-22 season due to losses incurred during the quarantine, and the NHL only raised it to $82.5 million in 2022-23. However, previously, the cap raise was usually $2 to $4 million per season, so the $10 million per year was still unexpected. 

    Kaprizov’s representatives and the Wild will have taken these price hikes into account. However, no one can fully predict the cap in the 2030s, and 8-year contracts have inherent risk for both parties. 

    The bigger issue is Kaprizov’s injury history, which continues to accumulate. In the 2022-23 season, Logan Stanley fell on Kaprizov, injuring his leg. 

     

     In November of 2024, Kaprizov suffered a knee-on-knee collision with Drake Caggiula

    While the collision was not considered a major injury, Kaprizov suffered another lower-body injury later in the season. He played through December 23, 2024, but the Wild ruled him day-to-day over the winter break for an undisclosed lower-body injury. He returned January 23, 2025, and played 3 games before the NHL announced Kaprizov needed surgery and would be out at least 4 more weeks. 

    Minnesota GM Bill Guerin noted that Kaprizov was only playing at “60 percent” and was still “better than most players in the league.” However, he ultimately had to rest and heal. Kaprizov missed 28 games and finally returned to play on April 9, 2025. 

    Kaprizov’s lower-body injuries are likely related. A study on lower limb muscle injuries in athletes found that athletes recovering from a previous muscle injury “may exhibit biomechanical abnormalities or neuromuscular control alterations, making them more prone to reinjury, not only in the same structure or muscle.” 

    Kaprizov may have healed from Stanley falling on top of him or his collision with Caggiula. Still, these previous injuries likely contributed to the lower-body injury that caused him to miss nearly every regular-season game in 2025. Another study found that “players whose first injury involved the lower body had a 1.5-times higher risk of a second lower body injury during the same season.” Kaprizov is a lot more likely to end up missing games due to injury than other players who have managed to stay healthy. 

    The Wild’s medical team is another factor that could lead to potential injuries. They came under scrutiny earlier this season during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. Bill Guerin was Team USA’s general manager for the tournament and used the Wild’s medical staff to treat players, including Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy.

    When McAvoy returned to Boston, he developed increasing pain and was reevaluated by the Bruins' medical staff, who found an infection in his shoulder and injury to his AC joint. The Bruins called the Wild medical staff out, saying they were “extremely unhappy” with how it was handled. 

    The Wild also experienced internal medical issues this past season, notably with Joel Eriksson Ek attempting to play on a broken leg. There’s undoubtedly pressure on the medical team to clear players as soon as possible from the players, coaches, fans, and management. However, the quick return to play has only hurt Minnesota’s roster. 

    In general, clinicians use a list of criteria in order to clear a player, such as muscle strength assessment and pain monitoring. However, aspects such as rating pain can be subjective, and players who show no symptoms may still reinjure themselves. 

    Despite missing 41 games and playing at “60%”, Kaprizov came in third for points this past season with 56, behind Matt Boldy (73 points) and Marco Rossi (60 points). 

    It’s challenging to predict what Kaprizov’s production levels will look like at full health. His best production was in his second season, 2021-22, when he had 108 points in 81 games. His early career point production is comparable to Connor McDavid’s, who was producing 108 points over 82 games by his third season. 

    The injury risk is there with every player, especially when they have 20+ minutes of ice time every game. McDavid has played as few as 56 games in a season due to injury and suspensions, and the Oilers aren’t trading him away anytime soon. 

    Edmonton just signed Leon Draisaitl to an 8-year, $14 million AAV contract and will likely extend McDavid for even more. Draisaitl or McDavid have both had at least 100 points in the last 4 seasons. Kaprizov will be a comparable player if he can consistently put up 100+ points per year.

    If Kaprizov stays healthy and remains productive, Minnesota will have struck a good deal. If Kaprizov gets reinjured, he’ll still produce an impressive amount of points for the Wild. However, he is at risk for reinjury, and if he only plays in half the games, $15 million will become a hefty price tag. The NHL’s unpredictable cap also has the potential to sway the overall value of the contract. 

    Ultimately, it’s a risk the Wild must take because Kaprizov has become their franchise player. Still, even extending a player as good as Kaprizov comes with some inherent risk. Christmas morning may have finally come for Minnesota, even if we don’t fully know what’s in the stocking.

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    I firmly believe that the injury he sustained from Logan Stanley squishing him did permanent damage. He is now very injury prone and has only played in about 50% of games since. A huge, long term contract is risky for the Wild. Is he as good or better than Draisaitl or McDavid? Hard to know when he misses significant time every season due to injury. He is also at the age where most NHL players peak, so he's not going to get better, you can only hope that he sustains his output. If he can play 75+ games he will obviously have more points, but that doesn't mean he's gotten better.

    I have a very unpopular opinion around here about the Wild trading him (cue CS's confusion). He will never be worth more than right now and the Wild could potentially obtain two top six forwards who are younger, bigger, cheaper, and could easily replace Kaprizov's lost points. Remember, he only scored 56 points last season, which two top six forwards could easily surpass. Heck, Rossi did by himself. It would make the team much deeper and less dependant on one player. It will also set them up better for a deeper run in the playoffs.

    Of course he is capable of much more and, when healthy, he is top 10 in the NHL. The problem is, he can't stay healthy anymore. If the Wild gamble on him and lose, it will set them back for years....again.

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    Three considerations

    1) Is the Wild medical staff incompetent or are they being pressured by BG to let players play hurt? He is grossly infatuated with grit.  I think its BG since the Wild didn't have these issues prior to him.  The amount of games missed to injury is absolutely insane the last three years.

    2) Hynes needs to go.  He overplayed Faber and KK(before he got hurt) last year. I don't think its coincidence that Faber's play declined and KK got injured. The workload was too high.

    3) Will the Wild really pay KK 15 million? It seems insane.  He isn't even close to Draisaitl and plays wing.  Marner and Rantanen are at the same level and both signed for 12....

    -Don't bother cherry picking KK's most productive games and claiming he is 2nd only to McDavid.  He isn't. There are YEARS of stats showing what he is. He is a top 5 WING in the NHL. Nothing more, nothing less.

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    Kirill is one of the best in the league.  His value to the team is arguably one of the highest in the league.  You try and keep him.  If the cap keeps jumping the contract should be fine.  

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    24 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

    Wild could potentially obtain two top six forwards who are younger, bigger, cheaper

    Think Charlie Coyle +Nino niedereiter 

    can’t replace 97 with volume

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    4 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    Think Charlie Coyle +Nino niedereiter 

    can’t replace 97 with volume

    Um, no. Hopefully Billy could get more than that, but you never know with Billy. I was thinking something more like Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Obviously that's a stretch, but a blockbuster like that.

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    51 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

    I firmly believe that the injury he sustained from Logan Stanley squishing him did permanent damage. He is now very injury prone and has only played in about 50% of games since. A huge, long term contract is risky for the Wild

    Very valid concern I think a lot of us share.  Prior to Stanley landing on him, he had played in 201 out of 203 games.  He did only miss 7 games in 2023/24.  It would be a risk sure, but there are players that have had significant injuries that have come back to be relatively healthy.

    Nikita Kucherov missed an entire regular season in 20/21 and almost half of 21/22 and has only missed 5 games in the last 3 years total.

    Crosby missed 41 games in 2010/2011 and 61 in 2011/2012 due to concussion issues.  He also had a hernia in 19/20 where he missed two months.  He has only missed 15 games in the last 5 years since.

    Let's hope Kap is more like these players. 

    Edited by SkolWild73
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    35 minutes ago, Patrick said:

    Will the Wild really pay KK 15 million? It seems insane.  He isn't even close to Draisaitl and plays wing.  Marner and Rantanen are at the same level and both signed for 12....

    I agree it is a lot to pay but I think it comes down to if Kap stays healthy.  If he does, his career number in points per game played is up there with the best in the game.  This is where the top 10 active players land in points per game with at least 500 career points and where they rank all time.

    McDavid: 1.520 (3rd)

    Crosby: 1.248 (9th)

    Kucherov: 1.238 (12th)

    Draisaitl: 1.210 (13th)

    Kap: 1.210 (Kap has 386 points in 319 games)

    MacKinnon: 1.167 (18th)

    Panarin: 1.157 (20th)

    Matthews: 1.156 (21st)

    Marner: 1.128 (24th)

    Malkin: 1.110 (30th)

    The next 5 are Malkin, Pastrnak, Ovechkin, Rantanen and Kane

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    1 hour ago, Scalptrash said:

    Of course he is capable of much more and, when healthy, he is top 10 in the NHL. The problem is, he can't stay healthy anymore. If the Wild gamble on him and lose, it will set them back for years....again.

    And it the Wild gamble on 2 players of lesser talent, and at least one of them can't stay healthy, then the Wild are also losing. It's a gamble either way, but not a lot of top teams try to trade their #1 players in their 20s.

    The Wild's record when Kaprizov is healthy tends to be quite good. Would something like Seth Jarvis and Svechnikov drive more winning?

    I imagine if the Wild thought the injuries were chronic in nature, they might consider that path, but I don't think there's much chance of a trade as long as Kaprizov is willing to sign an extension with the Wild.

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    1 hour ago, Patrick said:

    Three considerations

    1) Is the Wild medical staff incompetent or are they being pressured by BG to let players play hurt? He is grossly infatuated with grit.  I think its BG since the Wild didn't have these issues prior to him.  The amount of games missed to injury is absolutely insane the last three years.

    2) Hynes needs to go.  He overplayed Faber and KK(before he got hurt) last year. I don't think its coincidence that Faber's play declined and KK got injured. The workload was too high.

    3) Will the Wild really pay KK 15 million? It seems insane.  He isn't even close to Draisaitl and plays wing.  Marner and Rantanen are at the same level and both signed for 12....

    -Don't bother cherry picking KK's most productive games and claiming he is 2nd only to McDavid.  He isn't. There are YEARS of stats showing what he is. He is a top 5 WING in the NHL. Nothing more, nothing less.

    Regarding #1:  it may also be that the players wanted to come back too soon.  Ek really did seem to think he could make a go of it, but then came back to reality real quick.  This year, when players tried to push to come back earlier, they weren't allowed to.  They held multiple players back until they were close to 100%.

    Regarding 2:  Most of that was due to injuries to other players and not having a very deep team due to the cap penalties.  No way Faber plays that much if Spurgeon and Brodin were healthy all year.  A deeper team helps both players.

     

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    I tend to agree with scalptrash . I love kappy . He’s makes the wild worth watching along with ek. However  with the age an injuries scalptrash might be on to something. I want to win the cup not reg season games. It seems by the time playoffs roll around kappy and ek can only last a few games before injuries  or the abuse of playoffs take a toll . We don’t have the depth to replace them or are we Florida/ Vegas . Teams that can put a 15 mil player on IR and go get a replacement till playoffs. Then playoffs time they are 15 mil over cap. Minnesota can’t do that. We can’t get anyone to come here . So maybe trading kappy to get controlled players that combine to produce his points is a good thing.  Kappy is what 28. The wild haven’t surrounded with anything . They aren’t close to beating a team like Florida. The kids haven’t proven anything and are years away from actually doing anything playoff wise. By that time kappys age , injuries and salary will probably hold us back . For Billy that’s a good thing. He’s got a new excuse for 8 years. Well if only it wasn’t for injuries we’d be great. Kappy was hart candidate for 1st week of season isn’t that great even though he sat out rest of season with injuries. Lots of moral victories and fantasies about what if kappy was healthy. 
       I don’t want to trade hm but Billy hasn’t built anything around him that’s going to come to fruition any time soon.  This team can’t win a playoff round because they are gassed out an Injured along with not talented enough. To think kappy an Ek could actually make it 4 rounds to win a cup is a fantasy because there history says otherwise. Scalptrash is probably right going with depth for Minnesota might be better than broken stars on IR 

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    4 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

    I firmly believe that the injury he sustained from Logan Stanley squishing him did permanent damage. He is now very injury prone and has only played in about 50% of games since. A huge, long term contract is risky for the Wild. Is he as good or better than Draisaitl or McDavid? Hard to know when he misses significant time every season due to injury. He is also at the age where most NHL players peak, so he's not going to get better, you can only hope that he sustains his output. If he can play 75+ games he will obviously have more points, but that doesn't mean he's gotten better.

    I have a very unpopular opinion around here about the Wild trading him (cue CS's confusion). He will never be worth more than right now and the Wild could potentially obtain two top six forwards who are younger, bigger, cheaper, and could easily replace Kaprizov's lost points. Remember, he only scored 56 points last season, which two top six forwards could easily surpass. Heck, Rossi did by himself. It would make the team much deeper and less dependant on one player. It will also set them up better for a deeper run in the playoffs.

    Of course he is capable of much more and, when healthy, he is top 10 in the NHL. The problem is, he can't stay healthy anymore. If the Wild gamble on him and lose, it will set them back for years....again.

    KK has a no move clause. Good luck moving him unless he wants to move and he would pick the team. With that the return is not going to be what we want.

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    The bigger issue is Kaprizov’s injury history, which continues to accumulate. In the 2022-23 season, Logan Stanley fell on Kaprizov, injuring his leg. 

    I would never call what he did "falling" on Kaprisov.  "Gooning" perhaps, as it was entirely intentional.  I'd be fine if we took cheap shots at Stanley until Kap's next contract runs out.

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    I'm sure Kaprizov is well aware of his injury status and how it could shorten or end his career.  Could be a reason he may want to go to a team much closer to winning a Cup. He could go to a Eastern no check team like Carolina and be closer to raising the Cup and his career could be longer. The Western conference is much more of a meat grinder.

    All the Wild can do is sell him hope like they do to the fans every year. We hope Yurov is what we think he is, we hope Rossi is what we thought he was. Oh wait he is but we still don't like him. The Wild have locked themselves into over paying him and Kaprizov's agent will take every last dime he can if Kaprizov wants to stay. I have said before I see this as being very much like the Twins and Joe Mauer situation. Sign him or else. Mauer never got the Twins anywhere and he was stricken with the terrible leg weakness syndrome and spent a lot of time at home. Twins never got their moneys worth from him.

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    Just a reminder that anybody comparing $15M a year to previous contracts to show KK’s contract is overpaid needs to consider growing cap hit and in a year or two or when top players sign next contact it will show to probably be way more reasonable

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    A lot of people are saying that 15 Million is to much for someone like Kirill.  15 Million in a few years will be the league average for someone like Kirill.  That is going to be a fact.  Celebrini, Bedard, McKenna, insert random star, will all be making this or more. Kirill was on pace for 150 points last year.

    The fact he was injured in the past should not dictate his future.  He could play the next 8 years at 82 games each season, and he could also miss a handful of games each year do to minor injuries.  He could also be injured and not play much past December next year.  Which would be a very difficult pill to swallow.  

    As far as his game play and him being a target.  If he signs this contract he will get calls and be protected by the NHL.  You don't let the top paid player in the NHL get folded over by Logan Stanley without serious repercussions.  He is a good looking dude and is marketed by the NHL.  They will protect him as best as they can.  

     

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    If you can trade Kirill for Thompson and Tuch the team is better at the same cap hit.  That’s what they should be comparing to.  Anything over 4x$12mm is an overpay.  If he gets $15-16mm this team is in more trouble and Billy is a fool. If he trades him he will have heat but at least he can explain he is making the team better.  Kap has an injury history and not wirth the money. 

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    7 hours ago, TCMooch said:

    Just a reminder that anybody comparing $15M a year to previous contracts to show KK’s contract is overpaid needs to consider growing cap hit and in a year or two or when top players sign next contact it will show to probably be way more reasonable

    But it is not the contract or money alone 

    Kaprisov also need players to play with so I doubt that 8 year extension 

    will be signed anytime soon .Rossi not having a contract before 1st of December and pre season injury of Eriksson Ek and he would not even have a center to play with with NHL games .

    Yurov with  KHL experience only

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    6 hours ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    If you can trade Kirill for Thompson and Tuch the team is better at the same cap hit.  That’s what they should be comparing to.  Anything over 4x$12mm is an overpay.  If he gets $15-16mm this team is in more trouble and Billy is a fool. If he trades him he will have heat but at least he can explain he is making the team better.  Kap has an injury history and not wirth the money. 

    1. Kap would never voluntarily go to Buffalo.

    2. Even if he did, they would trade near everyone else on the roster, cause Buffalo would load up a Kap and Thompson line.  The Wild would be lucky to get futures and maybe Norris or something dumb.  Talk about injury riddled players.

    3. Kap is basically a god on skates in Minnesota.  It would be his and only his team to be built around for a decade (regardless of the injury risk).  Nearly every other team in the league would be like, "Ooh, shiny star for a few years.". Minnesota had Gaborik, Parise, Fiala, and maybe Boldy as a tier below what Kap has done.  Kap probably means just as much to the Wild as a money making business as he does a player.

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    18 hours ago, TCMooch said:

    Just a reminder that anybody comparing $15M a year to previous contracts to show KK’s contract is overpaid needs to consider growing cap hit and in a year or two or when top players sign next contact it will show to probably be way more reasonable

    Marner and Rantanen signed for 12 million a year this offseason.

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    22 minutes ago, Patrick said:

    Marner and Rantanen signed for 12 million a year this offseason.

    So?

    All indications are that they also wanted to be on the teams they are now on and that both have a chance to win.  Those teams also only had so much room under the cap to fit each player in, so if they wanted to be there, the concession seems to be signing for $12M. 

    Plus, neither state those teams play in has a state income tax, so the end result is similar to signing for more elsewhere.

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    1 hour ago, raithis said:

    So?

    All indications are that they also wanted to be on the teams they are now on and that both have a chance to win.  Those teams also only had so much room under the cap to fit each player in, so if they wanted to be there, the concession seems to be signing for $12M. 

    Plus, neither state those teams play in has a state income tax, so the end result is similar to signing for more elsewhere.

    If you dismiss the contract of every player that is comparable to KK...you have a point! 😂😂😂

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