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  • Will Gustavsson's Extension Become An Albatross Like Devan Dubynk's?


    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
    Justin Hein

    As the common saying goes, “Money is the root of all evil.” 

    For all of the pocket-watchers who hate the Filip Gustavsson contract, that sentiment has to be top of mind. They also might cite Devan Dubnyk’s contract -- a deal that aged so poorly that Minnesota traded him in the 2020 offseason. They only upgraded from a fifth to a seventh-round pick, and even to do that, the Wild had to retain the maximum 50% of Dubnyk’s salary.  

    However, the popular phrase is actually a shortening of the original bible verse, 1 Timothy 6:10, which reads, “For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.” 

    Perhaps those who are wailing and gnashing their teeth over paying a starting goaltender a below-market-rate contract should stop coveting after those extra cap dollars and ask the real question.

    Will the Gustavsson contract age as poorly as Devan Dubnyk’s?  

    To save Wild fans from those many sorrows, I’ll dive into that comparison. 

    First, compare the two contracts. Dubnyk signed his extension in the 2015 offseason, and it started in the 2015-16 season. It carried a five-year term at an average annual value (AAV) of $4.33 million. The Wild signed Gustavsson during the 2025 training camp, but the contract kicks in during the 2026-27 season. His contract has an identical term, but at a $6.8 million AAV. 

    Comparing those cap hits at face value is unfair because the salary cap is so much higher now than it was five years ago. If we translate them to a percentage of the salary cap in Year 1 of each deal, they look much closer. Gustavsson’s takes up 6.54% of the 2026-27 salary cap, while Dubnyk’s was 6.07% of the salary cap. In a sense, that means that Gustavsson’s deal is only 7.7% more expensive, after adjusting for cap inflation. 

    However, even that sells the Gustavsson deal short. Because the NHL has already projected the 2026-27 and 2027-28 salary caps, Bill Guerin knows that the cap will increase in the second year of the deal. On the other hand, Chuck Fletcher, the Wild GM who signed Dubnyk’s contract, didn’t know the Year 2 cap number for Dubnyk’s extension. 

    Fletcher should have assumed a much tighter cap environment than what today’s NHL enjoys. He only learned of the first-year salary cap four days before extending Dubnyk -- an unusually small increase of only 3.5%. 

    Even if Fletcher projected the cap to rebound in future seasons, Guerin can get more aggressive. The cap increase in Year 2 of Gustavsson’s deal is locked in at 9.1%. By comparison, the three seasons before the Dubnyk deal saw cap increases of 7.2%, 7.3%, and 3.5%. That speaks to a stagnating business environment for the NHL, which Fletcher should have leveraged in negotiations with Dubnyk. 

    Gustavsson’s extension will probably take up the same percentage of the salary cap as Dubunyk’s did over the contract lifetime. 

    Another factor that compounds against the rising salary cap is the age of each player in the first year of the contract. Dubnyk’s extension covered his age-29 through age-33 seasons, while Gustavsson’s covers his age-28 through age-32 seasons. 

    This isn’t some trick of the birthdays, either. Dubnyk was a full 13 months older than Gustavsson in the first year of his deal, when compared to the first year of the Swede’s new contract. 

    A one-year age difference might seem small, but aging is not a linear process. It’s best understood in two ways. Either as an exponential decline, an “age curve” that implies performance falls off more and more every year, or as an “age cliff,” in which a player's performance drastically declines with little warning. In the latter case, Gustavsson’s contract is a better risk to manage. In the former case, this compounding effect works nicely when combined with the inflating salary cap. 

    Since the contract length is identical, the two goaltenders’ ages are a crucial point in favor of Gustavsson’s contract. 

    Finally, let’s get into the two goaltenders’ performance. Which of these guys is actually better? 

    When the Wild traded Dubnyk in 2020, he was coming off two seasons in which he performed well below an average goaltender despite making a starter’s salary. His 2018-19 campaign was particularly painful, but his 2019-20 season was similarly poor. 

    However, in all fairness to Chuck Fletcher, it’s impossible to be certain of exactly how a player will perform as his contract ages. For that reason, let’s compare Gustavsson’s performance to Dubnyk’s in the three seasons before they signed their extensions. 

    That three-season sample includes 142 games and 633 five-on-four minutes for Gustavsson, all in Minnesota. Dubnyk played 130 games and 600 five-on-four minutes for Minnesota, the Nashville Predators, and the Edmonton Oilers. It should be a large enough sample to rely on these numbers with confidence, despite the up-and-down nature of goaltending. 

    Since Gustavsson signed his contract a full calendar year before entering the first year of the contract, this will slightly inflate his numbers since we don’t yet know the results of his age-27 season. That’s a key difference in comparing their pre-signing seasons, since Gustavsson’s sample will cover his age 24 through 26 seasons and his contract starts at age 28, while Dubnyk’s sample covers his age 26 through 28 seasons and his contract started at age 29. 

    With that caveat, Gustavsson’s numbers are meaningfully better than Dubnyk’s. 

    Gus vs Duby Saving.JPG

    Goaltending performance data courtesy of MoneyPuck.com

    At five-on-five play, Gustavsson and Dubnyk saw similar expected goals (xG), a measure of shot danger which accounts for shot location and how quickly the puck moved from the previous event (usually a pass or turnover).

    It doesn’t account for screens since player location data is not publicly available. Still, it’s the most stable metric for evaluating goaltenders. It’s better than save percentage or goals-against average, since it doesn’t punish goaltenders who play behind bad defenses. 

    Despite their similar workloads, Gustavsson outperformed Dubnyk by about 5.7 goals saved above expected (GSAx) per season. That sounds small, but Gustavsson’s 7.5 GSAx versus Dubnyk’s 1.8 GSAx would have been the difference between the 19th-best and 35th-best goaltender last year (top 64 goaltenders by games played). 

    Expanding that analysis to all situations, Gustavsson’s three-season average would have ranked 21st in the league last year, while Dubnyk’s three-season average ranked 30th. 

    Dubnyk performed slightly better in penalty kill situations, but that wasn’t true if we filter down to only high-danger chances. Those are defined as the top-third of shots by xG -- shot attempts with at least a 20% chance to become goals. 

    Gus vs Duby HD Saving.JPG

    High-danger saves are especially important on the penalty kill, when opposing offenses design plays specifically to generate those chances. Gustavsson’s high-danger five-on-four numbers aren’t drastically better than Dubnyk’s, but it helps reduce the concern about Gustavsson’s penalty kill performance going forward. 

    Even if Gustavsson’s 2025-26 performance declines with age compared to his last three seasons, it looks like Guerin signed a meaningfully better goaltender than Fletcher did. 
    Better performance, a younger goaltender, and a healthier salary cap environment all compound against each other when considering Gustavsson’s future performance compared to Dubnyk. 

    The Dubnyk contract sets a low bar in aging contracts. Minnesota essentially dumped Dubnyk’s cap hit in the final year of the deal, and they carried his poor performance for two seasons before that. 

    Just because Gustavsson clears that bar does not make the contract a steal. It’s nothing close to the sweetheart deals signed by Matt Boldy or Joel Eriksson Ek

    However, anybody complaining that the Gustavsson contract is history reincarnate is simply wrong. They’re just pointing at the new goalie contract and saying it’s the same as the last one, because it’s all that they’ve seen before. 

    Old wounds are slow to heal. With any luck, Gustavsson’s contract won’t reopen them anytime soon. 

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    The Gus contract is fine. They can deal with that if things go south. Fair market value. Kappy is the joke contract that won’t age well. Billy set his own market and the rest of the  nhl set there’s . We are a joke for over paying an often injured winger . Kappy has never looked the same since injuries. We got the greedy superstar and the rest of the nhl has superstars that want to win. Kappy loves minny so much he robs them.they can PR it all they want but he’s selfish. So much for team culture or it’s about winning. It’s about Craig not losing his jersey seller . This idea that we had to sign kappy is ridiculous   They said same with Zach and Ryan . It would make us  relevant . Didn’t work.  If we didn’t sign kappy someone else would have at that price. That’s ridiculous. If so it would have been a loser team that would then try to build around a 17 mil winger. They should have hard balled kappy . No contender was going to pay him 17. That was his agent driving up his value. The real market is taking shape and we are so far off it’s funny. Then to hear we can never do anything else but what Billy does is ridiculous.  They should have asked for his trade list after the 16 mil. If he didn’t give a good trade list than they should have put him in press box for a season. . Billy isn’t tough or smart he’s  weak as hell  when it comes to contracts or trade value. Bozo Billy got ripped off . Spin it how you want. When another wasted decade goes by with kappy still the highest paid player, haha , an on perpetual IR OR LTIR , Billy will be to blame. 

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    19 minutes ago, Dean said:

    The Gus contract is fine. They can deal with that if things go south. Fair market value. Kappy is the joke contract that won’t age well. Billy set his own market and the rest of the  nhl set there’s . We are a joke for over paying an often injured winger . Kappy has never looked the same since injuries. We got the greedy superstar and the rest of the nhl has superstars that want to win. Kappy loves minny so much he robs them.they can PR it all they want but he’s selfish. So much for team culture or it’s about winning. It’s about Craig not losing his jersey seller . This idea that we had to sign kappy is ridiculous   They said same with Zach and Ryan . It would make us  relevant . Didn’t work.  If we didn’t sign kappy someone else would have at that price. That’s ridiculous. If so it would have been a loser team that would then try to build around a 17 mil winger. They should have hard balled kappy . No contender was going to pay him 17. That was his agent driving up his value. The real market is taking shape and we are so far off it’s funny. Then to hear we can never do anything else but what Billy does is ridiculous.  They should have asked for his trade list after the 16 mil. If he didn’t give a good trade list than they should have put him in press box for a season. . Billy isn’t tough or smart he’s  weak as hell  when it comes to contracts or trade value. Bozo Billy got ripped off . Spin it how you want. When another wasted decade goes by with kappy still the highest paid player, haha , an on perpetual IR OR LTIR , Billy will be to blame. 

    While I am very happy we kept 97 with the Wild I don’t believe there’s a single person who’d say bill effectively managed his finite resources.  If this group can get into second round it’ll be in spite of bill not because of bill

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    1 hour ago, Dean said:

    We got the greedy superstar and the rest of the nhl has superstars that want to win. Kappy loves minny so much he robs them.they can PR it all they want but he’s selfish. So much for team culture or it’s about winning. It’s about Craig not losing his jersey seller . This idea that we had to sign kappy is ridiculous   They said same with Zach and Ryan . It would make us  relevant . Didn’t work.  If we didn’t sign kappy someone else would have at that price. That’s ridiculous. If so it would have been a loser team that would then try to build around a 17 mil winger. They should have hard balled kappy . No contender was going to pay him 17. That was his agent driving up his value. The real market is taking shape and we are so far off it’s funny. Then to hear we can never do anything else but what Billy does is ridiculous.  They should have asked for his trade list after the 16 mil. If he didn’t give a good trade list than they should have put him in press box for a season. . Billy isn’t tough or smart he’s  weak as hell  when it comes to contracts or trade value. Bozo Billy got ripped off

    Ouch!!!    I've been vocal on these boards as well.  Not to quite your extent though.  🤔   Not all things can be controlled by a GM. I do agree on two things.

    1.  Kirill was overpaid.   

    2.  The optics of it make Kirill look quite greedy.  

    It was reported that Kirill was very unhappy about missing the playoffs in 2024.  I don't believe he would sign here if he felt this team couldn't win.  Kirill is better than Parise and even Madano. He is the best player we have ever had. He is a winner and a game changer. We needed to keep him.  I may not like the $17M... but I would rather pay that then watch him walk.  We have a better chance at winning with him.  I do think his value was closer to $14.5.  But ensuring that we have him for 8 years and he will attract the attention of other good players helps the stomach when I stare at that $17M.  

    I also question blaming BG on this signing.  Leipold showed his hand and made negotiating very difficult for BG.  Leipold messed up.  At least that is my opinion.  

     

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    Will the Gustavsson contract age as poorly as Devan Dubnyk’s?

    I did the same thing as Fred did. No is the correct answer. 

    Justin, I didn't get the charts with the blue and red. What exactly are they showing? I assume the top numbers were saves above expected?

    We still don't know if Goose's trend stays at playing well every other year. I thought MacKenzie Blackwood's contract would have been a good starting point, but as Tony pointed out, this one was pretty solid, especially with capflation. 

    I believe the comparison in the 2 goalies is hard to do. Dubnyk was a reclamation project as Mr. Darcy couldn't hold down the fort. Dubnyk's confidence was shot after Edmonton, and I'm not sure if he fully regained it here. What I do remember is that he'd put in a solid season of work, go to the allstar game, get lit up, and suffer the rest of the way. He should have conveniently pulled a hammy right before the allstar break every year. 

    Goose, on the other hand, had been rescued from Ottawa who played defense about the same, but didn't seem to have the same mental issues as Dubnyk did. Dubnyk had plateaued, and even gone down hill a bit before he got here. Goose is on the upswing still, and I don't think he's reached his peak. 

    Dubnyk was 6'6", while Goose is 6'2". I think a lot of Dubnyk's game was squaring up and letting the puck hit him. Goose plays a little different but is also susceptible to the top corners. Dubnyk's glove hand slowed down a lot in those final years Goose's hasn't. Dubnyk, I think, was used too often and wore down by playoff time. Goose did not seem worn down in the playoffs, but his teammates did. 

    Tread on the tires may have said that Dubnyk had done a lot before this deal, Goose on the other hand, has not. I mention that because going down and butterflying a lot, like Dubnyk did may have an adverse affect on his knees. I'm pretty surprised that Dubnyk wasn't solid for longer, but I don't think Goose is on that same age track. 

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    5 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    Kirill is better than Parise and even Madano. He is the best player we have ever had. He is a winner and a game changer. We needed to keep him. 

    I like the way this is put, but I'm not ready to put him ahead of Modano.  He's got to play a few more years for that to happen. 

    I was selfish in thinking that my reverse retro 97 jersey will age well the next 9 years too. 

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    1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

    Will Gustavsson's Extension Become An Albatross Like Devan Dubynk's?
     

    Umm…no.

    That is the correct answer, the conclusion to which I arrived

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    17 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Justin, I didn't get the charts with the blue and red. What exactly are they showing? I assume the top numbers were saves above expected?

    Thanks for asking -- these are saves above expected in the different seasons.

    The first table (included below) is all chances, the second table is high-danger chances only.  

    The game state and player name is in the left hand column, season is along the top row of each column. The sum in the right-hand column is goals saved above expected in the three season sample. 

    For example, you can compare Gustavsson's 16.94 5v5 GSAx in 2024-25 to Dubnyk's 13.47 5v5 GSAx in 2014-15. Or, at the far right, you can compare Dubnyk's all-situations 10.46 GSAx for seasons 2012-13 through 2014-15 against Gustavsson's all-situations 34.64 GSAx for seasons 2022-23 through 2024-25. 

    image.png

    The formatting is admittedly not my best work. Thanks for the question! 

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    5 hours ago, Dean said:

    That was his agent driving up his value. The real market is taking shape and we are so far off it’s funny. 

    Disagree, Jacxson Lacombe got 9 million for being a mediocre defenseman.  Connor, McDavid, Eichel went the route of giving home town discounts for the ability to sign better players.  Next year there are two elite free agents available after those two the list gets very thin and old really fast.  Remember Brock Nelson he would be one of the top free agents next summer if he was a free agent next summer.  Signing Kirill opens the door for the Wild to sign one of those two Elite players next summer.  Since the agent is the same for both Kirill and Panarin it is possible that a deal can be made for Panarin to come to Minnesota and play with his buddy.  And in the end it will be the same price tag for those two that Edmonton pays for their two stars. 

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