By Tony Abbott -
The Minnesota Wild's playoff chances have dwindled to 3.9% because they only have 11 games to make up a nine-point gap in the standings between them and the Vegas Golden Knights. We can all but officially say that it's not happening. But when hope was left in the Wild's season, John Hynes went all-in with Marc-Andre Fleury.
Reading the tea leaves, the plan going into this season was to have Fleury play out the final year of his contract and presumably retire. That would leave Gustavsson, with two years left on his deal, in a timeshare with goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt for the next two seasons while Wallstedt established himself.
Now? Those plans might have changed.
No one could blame Fleury for feeling he has more in the tank, and he should decide whether or not to keep playing. If the former Vezina Winner decides he's not willing to hang up his pads next year, general manager Bill Guerin has to make a difficult decision. Will he bring back the 40-year-old goalie for another one-year deal? Or will Guerin lock up his former Pittsburgh Penguins teammate to a multi-year contract?
We kid, we kid, except it's hard to see Guerin walking away from Fleury should he want to return. If so, the challenging decision will be about what to do with Gustavsson.
With Gustavsson under contract, Guerin can let his current goalie tandem ride for next year at the expense of potentially blocking Wallstedt's path to the NHL. Or if Minnesota wants Wallstedt in the NHL, specifically to study under Fleury, the Wild could attempt to move on from Gustavsson this offseason.
Trading Gustavsson could make sense, but it follows a series of alarming trends with Guerin's handling of the team. It'd be a reactive, not proactive, move that again makes Minnesota an older team than they thought. It'd be a short-term move at the expense of the Wild's long-term plans.
That's not to say that plans can't, or shouldn't, change; they certainly did this season. Fleury, the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer, was supposed to be Filip Gustavsson's backup after the latter's breakout year. For most of the season, Fleury was. Even now, Gustavsson has six more starts (38) than Fleury (32) on the season. But as much as Dean Evason and then Hynes tried to fire up the "Gus Bus," he proved to be as intermittently reliable as Walter White's RV.
With the season on the line, Fleury started eight of the Wild's 11 games (so far) in March. How could anyone blame Hynes? Until he regressed against the Los Angeles Kings and St. Louis Blues, Fleury had gone 9-2-1 in decisions with a .928 save percentage since January 13. Gustavsson held an 8-6-1 record with a .889 save percentage in that stretch.
Overall, Gustavsson and Fleury's numbers don't look so different in the 2023-24 season. Both goalies have their save percentages starting with an 8 (.897 for Gustavsson, .899 for Fleury). But there has been a massive difference in their consistency. Fleury has his clunkers but keeps the Wild in the game far more often, turning in a Quality Start in 17 of his 32 starts. That's two more than Gustavsson, giving Fleury a Quality Start percentage of .531 to Gustavsson's .395, with Gustavsson being just as prone to blowing up with a dreadful game.
The Wild saw something that wasn't working out and adjusted accordingly. That reactive approach is needed for in-season tactics. But looking ahead, a different perspective is necessary, and that perspective tends to get lost in the Wild's general approach to team-building.
Assuming one must stay and the other must leave, are we sure Fleury is a better option than Gustavsson next season? Whatever you want to say about Gustavsson's season -- and it's been a nightmare -- he's still got a .914 save percentage over 75 starts for the Wild in the big picture. The performance of almost any goalie in their 40s isn't going to surpass that happy medium if Gustavsson can find it.
Seven goalies have played 14 combined seasons (minimum 20 games) into their 40s during the salary cap era. A 41-year-old Dominik Hasek was the only player to outperform a .914 save percentage. Only Dominik Hasek (twice), Dwayne Roloson (once, age-41), and Craig Anderson (once, age-41) finished at or above the NHL league average save percentage.
Therefore, our reasonable expectations for Fleury next season max out at around a .902 save percentage. As crazy as Gustavsson's swings can be, he's a .912 career goalie. For the following season, Fleury's expectations max out at retirement.
Then what? Instead of having Gustavsson forcing Wallstedt to earn his place in the NHL, Minnesota must have Wallstedt serve as the primary starter as a 23-year-old in 2025-26 on a team that should have Stanley Cup aspirations. Is that what anyone wants? And that pressure cooker can come sooner if Fleury gets injured next season.
That's not to say a Gustavsson trade can't carry some upside. If Minnesota has lost confidence in him, that's an attractive move because it would clear off his $3.75 million cap hit for the next two seasons. That could especially be welcome for next season, the last year of the worst of the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyout penalties in 2024-25.
Still, it would remove a major safety net for Wallstedt for the next two seasons while giving Gustavsson zero chance to bounce back from a tough season. To do it in the name of keeping a 40-year-old in the fold, even though he's beloved, reeks of Minnesota not sticking to (or having) a plan.
The obvious solution to satisfy Minnesota's needs and sentimentality is bringing Fleury back alongside Gustavsson. You have Fleury back for insurance if Gustavsson can't be a 1A goalie next year, and Gustavsson has a chance to deliver on his contract for the next two seasons. It even benefits Wallstedt, who has been brilliant lately (.940 save percentage in his last 5 games) but only has a .911 save percentage for the Iowa Wild this season.
Plans can change, and Fleury has delivered strong play, which gives him some right to be back next season. It's a short-term move that might be right for the Wild. But abandoning their plan altogether and throwing Wallstedt into the NHL sooner than anyone might want? That seems to be a dangerous deviation from the long-term plan, and the Wild would be taking a major risk rolling the dice on a Gustavsson trade.
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