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  • Wild Address Penalty Kill With Four-Year Deal For Yakov Trenin


    Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA Today Sports
    Tony Abbott

    As free agency dawned, most people assumed the Minnesota Wild's No. 1 priority would be signing a top-six wing to address their secondary scoring. That scoring winger may still be coming, but it wasn't the first thing Minnesota locked down on July 1. Instead, they signed depth winger Yakov Trenin, whom the Wild signed Monday morning to a four-year deal with a $3.5 million annual average value (AAV).

    Trenin, 27, has ties to the Wild organization: John Hynes coached him in Nashville. Arguably, his most productive season came under Hynes, when he scored 17 goals and 24 points in 80 games in 2021-22.

    Make no mistake, though, the dozen or so goals Trenin scores each season are secondary to his game. His true strength is as a penalty killer, an area of his game where he can claim to be one of the NHL's best. Over the past three seasons, Trenin ranks 21st among forwards by providing 3.0 Goals Above Replacement (worth about a point in the standings) with his penalty-killing alone, tied with the likes of the Calgary Flames' Blake Coleman and former Wild center Connor Dewar.

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    As you might recall, Minnesota's penalty kill has been a near-constant thorn in their side for most of the Bill Guerin Era. There have been seasons of competence, but those successes are immediately followed by regression, with last season's being the worst yet.

    Here are the Wild's league rankings in each year since Guerin took over as general manager:

    2019-20: 25th (77.2%)
    2020-21: 12th (80.7%)
    2021-22: 25th (76.1%)
    2022-23: 10th (82.0%)
    2023-24: 30th (74.5%)

    Overall, it's a mediocre showing (23rd in NHL, 77.9%), and opponents have magnified their flaws further in the postseason. Among the 27 teams with postseason games in the past five years, only the Arizona Coyotes (nine games in the 2020 COVID bubble) and Los Angeles Kings (who constantly play the Edmonton Oilers in Round 1) have fared worse than Minnesota. Their 72.6% postseason penalty kill over that span easily cost them winnable series against the St. Louis Blues in 2022 and the Dallas Stars in 2023.

    The Wild signed Trenin to patch up those flaws. To his credit, he rarely gets scored on while short-handed. Here are the top-10 players in the NHL (among 183 forwards with 250-plus 4-on-5 minutes) in terms of goals surrendered per hour since Trenin entered the NHL:

    1. Teuvo Teravainen, 4.25 GA/60
    2. Trevor Lewis, 4.42
    3. Vincent Trocheck, 4.46
    4. Garnet Hathaway, 4.81
    5. Jesper Fast, 4.86
    6. Sebastian Aho, 4.88
    7. Patrice Bergeron, 4.96
    8. YAKOV TRENIN, 4.97
    9. Josh Bailey, 5.04
    10. Brock Nelson, 5.12

    That's great company, but it doesn't come without a red flag. Most of those penalty kill minutes were with one of the top goalies in the NHL, Juuse Saros, backstopping him. When you look at expected goals, he surrendered 7.51 of those per hour on the ice, ranking a much more middle-of-the-pack 98th in the NHL. That suggests Saros may have been saving his bacon more than the goal totals suggest.

    Minnesota will have to hope that Trenin's size (6-foot-2, 201 lbs.) and speed lead to fewer chances than expected goals suggest. They'll also have to rely on him defensively at even strength, and the Wild's system always seems to plug in players like Trenin and lift them to new heights defensively. 

    The Wild are also trying to get back to the identity they want to have: a team that plays hard and pairs skill in the top-six with relentless forechecking in the bottom-six. Marcus Foligno told the media at the end of the season, "It felt like we didn't have that energy. It felt like there was a sag, a little bit of a 'Poor Me'-type vibe when goals would go in. That wasn't usually the case in seasons before." Guerin and hope Hynes that Trenin's size and jam will help Minnesota restore that attitude.

    The Wild paid a fairly big fee to sign Trenin. At 27, he has age on his side, but his $3.5 million cap hit represents Minnesota's massive, long-term commitment in their bottom-six. They'll pay Trenin, Foligno ($4 million AAV), Ryan Hartman ($4 million), and Freddy Gaudreau ($2.1 million) a combined $13.6 million through 2026-27. In 2027-28, that bottom-six commitment will drop to $9.6 million after Hartman's deal expires.

    Instead of filling those roles with team-friendly deals, the Wild again splurged on a role player in terms of money and term. Granted, Trenin fits a very important, specific need for Minnesota on the penalty kill, but he'll need to be much more than a specialist to fully justify the expense. Teams can always find penalty-killers at the trade deadline. That's exactly what the Colorado Avalanche did when they acquired Trenin last year.

    Rounding out the news of the day, for now, the Wild signed Travis Boyd and Devin Shore, both to two-way deals. Boyd, 30, most recently played with the Arizona Coyotes, drawing in for just 16 games last year with two goals and eight points. In his previous two seasons, he scored 15-plus goals and 30-plus points but rated among the worst defensive players in the NHL.

    Shore, 29, split time between the Seattle Kraken (a goal, four points in 21 games) and their AHL affiliate in Coachella Valley (seven goals, 25 points in 39 games). He spent the past three seasons with the Edmonton Oilers and never drew in for more than 50 games. He figures to be a true 13th forward/minor-league option for a Wild team that lacked depth last year.

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    1 hour ago, Will D. Ness said:

    Is anyone on this forum under 50?  😀

    I’m under 50 and I’ll prove it with my fave band list:

    1) insane clown posse

    2) lugnutz 

    3) TOOL bench

     4) piss tank

    5) ABBA

    • Haha 3
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    1 hour ago, Lovehockey said:

    If u are not joking: there is no single spot to put any other player on the Wild roster. Period. And we will not be able to trade anyone with contracts structure 

    but we have an opportunity to root for these bottom two lines that will strike fear in any opponent they face!

    MJ - Freddy G - Zuccy

    Harty - Foligno - Knutty/Trenin

    Shit this is sad

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    52 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I’m under 50 and I’ll prove it with my fave band list:

    1) insane clown posse

    2) lugnutz 

    3) TOOL bench

     4) piss tank

    5) ABBA

    i like the topic though! what are people's current favorite band or album?

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    4 hours ago, punch_cut said:

    This signing came in exactly where evolving-hockey said the contract projection would be. Yes it would be nice if it was a lower yearly number, but the team highlighted this need and got the player. The PK was terrible and if this helps it will be a major benefit to the team.

    I know everyone wants the players that get paid 1.8 to score 30 goals, but that isn't always reality.

    How about the ones paid $3.5?

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    I know this is a different topic but look at this again:

    Quote

    Here are the Wild's league rankings in each year since Guerin took over as general manager:

    2019-20: 25th (77.2%)
    2020-21: 12th (80.7%)
    2021-22: 25th (76.1%)
    2022-23: 10th (82.0%)
    2023-24: 30th (74.5%)

    Overall, it's a mediocre showing (23rd in NHL, 77.9%), and opponents have magnified their flaws further in the postseason. Among the 27 teams with postseason games in the past five years, only the Arizona Coyotes (nine games in the 2020 COVID bubble) and Los Angeles Kings (who constantly play the Edmonton Oilers in Round 1) have fared worse than Minnesota. Their 72.6% postseason penalty kill over that span easily cost them winnable series against the St. Louis Blues in 2022 and the Dallas Stars in 2023.

    These seasons are almost totally under the Evason era. We know that Deano wasn't particularly interested in Xs & Os. It seems like he put Bob Woods in charge of this particular area. Woods was also with Bruce Boudreau, and his closest confident. 

    I know many don't like the switch, but Heinzy does have some Xs & Os experience and I believe we will have a completely different system next season. The stat referenced up top is a serious indictment against Evason, and really an admission that he had no idea how to fix it. Yet, the club still won and made the playoffs in 4 of those years. 

     

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    5 hours ago, Beast said:

    Why not just keep Dewar?  Honest question.  That seems like a much better option on paper.  

    Size and physicality when not killing penalties.

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    1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

    i like the topic though! what are people's current favorite band or album?

    More easy listening stuff:

    1) barf funnel 

    2) meat locker mistress

     3) state fair stank 

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    35 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    The stat referenced up top is a serious indictment against Evason, and really an admission that he had no idea how to fix it.

    Deano not landing any of the open jobs this offseason is also an indictment.  Regular season hero, but he exposed himself for not being able/willing to make in game adjustments during his playoff appearances

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    The Wild wanna be able to roll four lines. They're not there yet with money for a top talent or elite depth. 

    The Wild are getting closer. They added nice draft picks so the future and trajectory look like it can hit a new upswing. Positive vibes.

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    9 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Size and physicality when not killing penalties.

    Yah, Dewzy is a fringe nhl’r.  I had hopes this kid would get over and find the next gear but it became clear it wouldn’t happen here.  Hey I just saw that Tyson Post Josty’s just landed another contract so don’t give up yet Dew

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    3 hours ago, Lovehockey said:

    If u are not joking: there is no single spot to put any other player on the Wild roster. Period. And we will not be able to trade anyone with contracts structure 

    You're simply wrong on the structure. Most of the NMCs move to M-NTCs. Even then, if a team wants you with an NTC, we've seen what NYR did. NTCs are not that difficult to work around, especially when you've got the waiver option.

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    2 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    I’m under 50 and I’ll prove it with my fave band list:

    1) insane clown posse

    2) lugnutz 

    3) TOOL bench

     4) piss tank

    5) ABBA

    I only know of #5, a fan too.

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    30 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    Yah, Dewzy is a fringe nhl’r.  I had hopes this kid would get over and find the next gear but it became clear it wouldn’t happen here.  Hey I just saw that Tyson Post Josty’s just landed another contract so don’t give up yet Dew

    yeah, in Carolina. I'm sure he'll be making his way to the A.

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    5 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Midds is back at 4.35 per for 4 more years!

    Common sign Bogo to the same and we'll be set

    I think I like the Trenin deal more than the Middleton deal now. Kind of feels like Guerin is giving everyone $300-$500K more than other teams might. At some point, that hamstrings you nearly as much as a Parise or Suter buyout.

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    4 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    I think I like the Trenin deal more than the Middleton deal now. Kind of feels like Guerin is giving everyone $300-$500K more than other teams might. At some point, that hamstrings you nearly as much as a Parise or Suter buyout.

    i agree with that. Midds is signed for next 5 years. He is slow, not that physical, but yet he got a raise from 2.45 all the way to 4.35. I understand inflation and cap raises, but i wouldn't mind knowing who were we betting against in each case - Midds and Trenin. It's consistent with all our previous extension. Signed too early, signed for too much, and blocked any sort of escape clause. 

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    2 hours ago, Tony Abbott said:

    How about the ones paid $3.5?

    What are you asking?

    I said evolving-hockey had a contract projection of around 3.5 per yr on a 4yr deal for him.

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    1 hour ago, punch_cut said:

    I said evolving-hockey had a contract projection of around 3.5 per yr on a 4yr deal for him.

    I think the question was about guys getting paid that money reaching 30 goals.

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    15 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    i think i'd still take a year of Dewey for 850K vs 4 years of Trenin at 3.5 per 🍻

    Dewar wasn't stopping anyone from taking cheap shots on Kap. 

    Trenin might since he's got about 20 more lbs on him. 

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    I think the idea is that, with Trenin, Hartman, Foligno, and Ek you not only get tougher on the PK but that also gives you physicality on potentially every line if they make it to the post-season over the next 4 seasons. 

    This season, for instance, they can go:

    Boldy-Ek-Kap/Zuccy-Rossi-Hartman/Trenin-Khusnut-Ohgren/Foligno-Gaudreau-Johansson

    It'll be tougher to take runs on Kaprizov if there is always an enforcer-size player on the ice with all lines. 

    And let's not forget that the further into a year, the more cap you get. If players stay healthy, there will likely be a top-6 winger available when the team has more cap-room at the TDL, which can push Hartman down to a more suitable role. 

    Edited by B1GKappa97
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    29 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

    Dewar wasn't stopping anyone from taking cheap shots on Kap. 

    Trenin might since he's got about 20 more lbs on him. 

    you think he is going to be an enforcer type? that hasn't worked out well for us before. i think would need to play on Kap's line to be feared. We have seen how enforcers that play of 3/4 line are irrelevant at preventing that (reeves, maroon, even foligno).  oh well, whats done is done.

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    Something I began to wonder is if Guerin's signings and extension philosophy is antagonistic to and yet at the same time a response/balancing act to Brackett's drafting.  With where the Wild have been (mid to lower teens), Brackett has had to get smart with some signings.  He goes for people who fall for various reasons, but has settled in on the higher scoring, sometimes smaller players.  That isn't always the case (Ohgren/Yurov)...but given Guerin's philosphy of "being tougher to play against/defense first" mantra, what I'm wondering is if signings like Trenin are a direct result of what Brackett has been able to draft.

    I know Trenin's term and value isn't the most fun, but what I wonder and hope is if Guerin sees Rossi/Faber/Buium/etc. as the offensive saviors internally.  All fine and good that Nashville bought the farm on Stamkos and March, but they are older...VERY older in the Edmonton/Tanev case.  They are probably better players now, but they could be injury risks just like Laine might be.  

    Trenin, Foligno, Hartman, Middleton, etc are maybe Guerin's way of balancing the team out and saying, "the team will grind out wins unless our younger guys provide the secondary scoring."  It may not be the best solution, but I wonder if he sees the options that ARE available that weren't last year, thinking, "It's a high cost sure, but we have what we're searching for already.  We just want to give the 1-2 spots per year, and let them earn it."

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    From the video clips I've seen Yakov "what a country" Tenin >> Dewar

    Dewar is a smart, undersized NHL'r.  Tenin looks to bring much more sandpaper to his game and should strike fear in defenseman digging pucks out of their own corner.  

    Now for the glass is half empty take: This is Tenin's payday contract.  He just got paid for all the wear and tear his body has endured so far.  Let's hope he doesn't go full-apathetic-old-core on us and mail it in for the next couple years.

    I'll trust that Heinzy knows how this kid is wired and he knows T-Pain will continue to bring it on the forecheck.

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    11 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    I think I like the Trenin deal more than the Middleton deal now. Kind of feels like Guerin is giving everyone $300-$500K more than other teams might. At some point, that hamstrings you nearly as much as a Parise or Suter buyout.

    He's only traded one cap crunch for another.

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