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  • Why Isn't Zeev Buium Quarterbacking the Wild's Power Play More Often?


    Image courtesy of Kevin Ng-Imagn Images
    Justin Hein

    Picture this: 

    You’re on your couch, favorite cold-weather snacks and beverages before you. Your favorite hockey team, the Minnesota Wild, is on television. The other team has committed some injustice punishable by two minutes in the box. 

    Huzzah! Time for an Xcel Energy Power Play!

    But what’s this? They’ve lost the faceoff, and the other team dumps the puck. No matter. Surely regrouping and re-entering the offensive zone won’t be a challenge. Least of all with a five-on-four man advantage. 

    Plus, that new kid, Zeev Buium, can really skate the puck. Kirill Kaprizov drops the puck back at center ice, and with a head of steam, here comes…Jared Spurgeon? Brock Faber

    Frantically, you search the other forest green sweaters for No. 8, Our Savior. Alas, it’s nowhere to be found. 90 seconds of valuable top-unit power-play minutes seep away. Soon enough, the power play ends. The opponent’s infraction goes unpunished. 

    You’ve lost your appetite for those snacks and beverages. In its place, an appetite for John Hynes’s still-beating heart burns in the pit of your stomach.

    If you think Zeev Buium is the best option to lead Minnesota’s power play, the data backs you up. When he’s on the ice, the Wild's power play is at its most efficient in high-danger shots, shot attempts, and expected goals (xG). Those numbers are all on a per-minute basis, courtesy of MoneyPuck.com

    That’s not just because he gets to play on the top unit more frequently than other defensemen, either. If we filter Minnesota’s defensemen to power play minutes when Kirill Kaprizov is on the ice (a reasonable proxy for PP1 minutes), Buium still leads the team by a significant margin in all the most important numbers, according to NaturalStatTrick.com

    PP1 D PERFORMANCE.JPG

    This impact also passes the eye test. As talented as Faber and Spurgeon are, neither of them matches Buium’s ability to carry the puck into the zone, work the blue line, and find his teammates in high-danger shooting lanes. 

    That’s why it’s supremely frustrating to see Buium’s share of ice time with the top power play unit diminished by minutes for Spurgeon and Faber. Again, using five-on-four time with Kaprizov as a proxy for PP1 minutes, Buium has played only 59% of the time. 

    Part of the reason for that is that Minnesota’s top two right-handed defensemen are capable power play quarterbacks. Over the past two seasons, their man-advantage impacts from The Athletic’s analytical model have been good-to-great. In 2023-24, Spurgeon and Faber ranked in the 99th percentile of defensemen by power play impact. 

    Part of that spectacular rating is that teammate and opponent impacts weren’t measured in the model for that season. In other words, playing often with Kirill Kaprizov (sometimes against opponents’ second- or third-best penalty kill units, given the 90-second shifts often given to Hynes’s top unit) heavily skews those 2023-24 power play impacts. 

    However, the numbers from the same model for the 2024-25 season do account for opponent and teammate impacts. Spurgeon’s results drop off dramatically to the 22nd percentile, but Faber still comes in at the 65th percentile. He’s not lighting the world on fire, but he’s certainly capable. 

    That partially explains why Faber and Spurgeon have been on the ice for 41% of the Wild’s top power play minutes. Combine Faber’s abilities with the fact that Buium is a rookie, and it’s not easy for the Wild to explain to Faber and Spurgeon why they would be reducing their power play minutes this season.

    Even still, Buium’s effect on the Wild power play is noticeable beyond the numbers. It just feels more dangerous when he’s on the ice. He draws opponents into his gravitational pull and uses his unique skating and stickhandling to pass into dangerous areas. Why not use him all the time? 

    Simply put, Hynes has never stuck with one power play quarterback in either of his two previous seasons in Minnesota. Looking back at defensemen’s share of PP1 minutes in ‘23-24 and ‘24-25, Faber was typically the go-to guy. Even still, Faber only drew about 55% of available minutes with the top power play unit. 

    PP1 D ICE TIME.JPG

    Note that for ‘24-25, minutes with Matt Boldy were used instead of Kaprizov, since Kaprizov missed half the season with injury. 

    With this context, it seems that the hair-pulling over Buium’s time on the top power play is overblown. 

    It seems this has less to do with Hynes demoting Buium and more to do with Hynes’s overall power-play philosophy. He relentlessly tinkers with the power-play quarterback. 

    Most likely, there is a good reason for that tinkering. If the point man is right-handed, he has access to different plays than a left-handed player. Faber and Spurgeon are more defensively responsible -- especially Spurgeon, who has a better xG% in his five-on-four minutes. 

    That means that, after accounting for chances given up the other way, Spurgeon is more efficient on the power play. Hynes might prefer Surgeon against teams that deploy a more aggressive penalty kill system or whose penalty kill employs skilled scorers. 

    On top of that (and much to the chagrin of Wild fans who just want to see them let the kid loose!), top-unit power-play minutes are a powerful motivator. It’s easy to lose sight of the human aspect, but Buium is a 20-year-old rookie. Teaching him to be a professional athlete is part of his development. 

    That doesn't mean that Hynes is right for reigning in Buium’s PP1 minutes, but it offers an explanation as to why it might be necessary, or even optimal. 

    So, try not to have a heart attack when Spurgeon or Faber is first over the boards next time Logan Stanley gets up to whatever evil action takes hold of his black heart. Buium is the team’s best power play quarterback, and the team seems to know that. 

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    I'm a big fan of Zeev.  The guy has crazy skill.  I'm glad he is getting over 18 minutes a night of TOI.  I also think it is good for him to watch others run the PP sometimes so he can see the difference.  He is learning at a rapid pace.  I would expect him to be the mainstay for the PP by the end of the year and well in to our future.

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    I have to say that having Buium meshing with the top unit, which is still a work in progress is more important. Hynes loses sight of the long term goals of the team to a very short sighted next game up. You want the players to have that mentality, but coaches simply can't.

    If this team is going to be successful, especially in the post season, they've got to get the new guys acclimated. This is a completely necessary step in any rebuilding/retooling or whatever you want to call it. The new guys need to have significant roles where they are not just "them" but are contributing to the teams' success. 

    Buium QBs a PP very well. I can understand if the penalty was obtained during his shift where he'd been out awhile, but, otherwise, this unit needs to be in top form by April. That doesn't come from playing 3 weeks together in March. 

    I realize we've got to get to the playoffs to make a deep run, and Hynes needs to run his bench on gameday more of a win the day than long term. But he does need to stick with the long term planning which is what all teams have to do when the new guys arrive. March should be where we introduce some new blood we've just acquired into the lineup. In that instance, the meshing of the kids should already be complete.

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    8 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Buium QBs a PP very well. I can understand if the penalty was obtained during his shift where he'd been out awhile, but, otherwise, this unit needs to be in top form by April. That doesn't come from playing 3 weeks together in March. 

    I think some patience can be reasonable. This season has a very specific break in February, and the Wild have 24 games remaining when they come back.

    Buium has seen some time on the PP1, and he'd still have over 25% of the season if Hynes decided to put him back on that unit once they return.

    I agree he's their best option there, but I also wonder if there is some value in having him on PP2, which might otherwise be seriously lacking in playmaking.

    When PP1 gets shut down, having that playmaking on PP2 has been useful in some games. I know the flip side is that PP1 might not get shut down with him, but as long has he's being used on PP1 or PP2, he can have a positive impact.

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    My biggest frustration with the power play is the zone entry play when Zeev isn't on the ice.  Since, we loose a lot of face offs we end up needing to regroup and then try to gain the offensive zone, which takes precious time.  

    Against Calgary and Vancouver, Faber made some really bad passes on the break out that made us look like a troop of monkeys trying to hump a football.  Actually, the monkeys would be more entertaining.  A couple of power play goals versus Calgary would've won that game in my opinion and we had 8 minutes of power play time in the first period.  To Faber's credit he cleaned this up against Seattle. 

    What I'm seeing with Buium is a much cleaner zone entry thus leading to more offensive zone time.  Zeev adds the coast to coast ability that teams have to account for which opens up more room on the entry.  It seems to me with Faber and Spurgeon we end up ringing the puck around the boards to get established on the power play.  I would say we are actually good at this, but it takes precious time to set up and sometimes we have to win a puck battle to actually get set up.  

    Once we get established,  Spurge, Zeev and Faber do move the puck around adequately, but I think Spurgeon takes too many wide open shots from the blue line with no traffic.  The one thing I thought that Goligoski was next level at was knowing when to shoot on the power play.  He accounted for a lot of scoring by knowing when to shoot.  I think Zeev does this better than Faber and Faber better than Spurgeon.  

    We scored one goal in three of the last four games, and five goals total, without the empty netters.  Seems to me we should be playing our best power play unit to score more goals.  Unless we are trying to tank?

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