Why I'm Afraid Of the Minnesota Wild's "Christmas Morning"

I can clearly remember the last time it felt like Christmas Morning to be a Wild fan.

The exact date was July 4, 2012, the date the Minnesota Wild signed the now-onerous and crippling Zach Parise and Ryan Suter contracts. Make no mistake, no one thought those deals would look good in the mid-2020s. But that was a problem for mid-2020s Wild fans.

Ha ha.

But for the moment, it genuinely felt like Christmas Morning. It had everything -- Wild fans making a wish list for those players, the anticipation, and even a dramatic flourish with owner Craig Leipold bringing them to Minnesota via plane as beat writers hid in the bushes to take a peek. It was undeniably Christmas in July.

(And no, I don't want to hear about how Kirill Kaprizov's arrival in Minnesota was like Christmas Morning. The day Kaprizov arrived was like when your deadbeat dad shows up for the first time in four years and gives you a gift that's "for the birthdays he missed," but it's good enough for you to say, "Actually, Ron kinda came through here.")

But now that the hangover of Christmas Morning 1.0 will wear off in July 2025, we're being promised Christmas Morning 2.0. No, really. "Next July 1 is going to be like Christmas," declared Mr. Leipold back in October. And I'm afraid of Christmas morning. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm writing to Santa about a long-term extension for Kirill Kaprizov to arrive on exactly that date. Whether it's for $13, $14, or, heck, $20 million per year, I don't care as long as it's eight years. If that gets done, I'll get something I'm thrilled about under the tree.

But after four straight lean years where the Wild have had to do their shopping at Five Below, there's no doubt Minnesota wants to make a big splurge. That's also the fear -- of leaving a Parise/Suter situation and diving right into another one.

That's not an indictment on Mr. Leipold's ownership. For one, it's his team and his money, and Wild fans should be happy to have an owner willing to break the bank to try and field a winning product. You can hop the Green Line over to Target Field Station and see what happens when the owner isn't as willing to invest in the team.

Nor is it an admonishment of the Parise/Suter contracts. Those two were top-50 players, and the Wild were an afterthought in the NHL before those moves. They became relevant overnight and remained so ever since. The ending would always be bad, but if I had a chance to go back in time and get the Wild's ear before signing those deals... I'd advise them to do it again.

But this is a different free agent class, a different Wild team, and a different juncture in franchise history. 

Let's start with the players available. There are only three players who've been in the NHL's Top-50 in Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement since the start of the 2021-22 season that are hitting free agency: Mitch Marner (seventh), Mikko Rantanen (eighth), and Brad Marchand (28th). If Marner or Rantanen want to sign with your team, you do that in a heartbeat and ask questions later. Marchand would move the needle. Still, at 37, he'd be a short-term, late-career signing.

Everyone else is especially subject to The Winner's Curse, where signing them virtually guarantees a bad ending. To get a player in free agency, you're almost always overpaying in both money and term.

Look at the Nashville Predators, who had their Christmas morning in July. They threw cash around and inked two-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner Steven Stamkos, Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Marchessault, and threw in a top-four defenseman in Brady Skjei for good measure. Look what they got for it: Seventh place in the Central Division, with Stamkos and Marchessault on pace for 22-and-24-goal seasons, respectively.

No one is saying the Wild can't use a top-six center in Matt Duchene, Brock Nelson, or John Tavares, even into their mid-to-late 30s. Nor would a right-shot scoring winger like Brock Boeser or a speedster like Nikolaj Ehlers be out of place in Minnesota. 

But again, this is a different Wild team at a different juncture of their franchise. They have Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, two star players who will keep them relevant. Minnesota also isn't so desperate for centers that it needs to sign a Faustian contract to get one -- while the depth isn't great, Marco Rossi and Joel Eriksson Ek make a good 1-2 punch. 

They also have a great prospect pool that won't need to carry the team the way Minnesota depended on Mikael Granlund and company to do in 2012. Goalie Jesper Wallstedt and defenseman Zeev Buium probably need to become tentpole pieces. Still, if players like Danila Yurov, Liam Öhgren, David Jiricek, and Riley Heidt become solid players instead of stars, that doesn't throw the whole plan into flux.

The Wild did a great job assembling this foundation, and it'd be a shame if an ill-advised free agent signing blew that up. How would it feel if, four years from now, the Wild were forced to choose between keeping Buium and Jiricek, or Rossi and Yurov because they had one or two poorly-aging Stamkos-esque contracts?

Now, free agency isn't the only way to bring aboard an impact player. If the Wild target a young player on the outs with their team or one who wants out, that's a different story. The Florida Panthers did that with Matthew Tkachuk, for example. The whispers are out about Elias Pettersson, and buying low on a three-time 30-goal scorer at center before turning 27 would be exactly the kind of Christmas morning move I would welcome.

It's hard to imagine that the Wild won't make a big splash this offseason. The front office and ownership are motivated to make a move. Minnesota is in a contention window with Kaprizov, and the fanbase is starved for something good after four years of league-imposed frugality. But Christmas morning needs to come with the right presents, or the memory of Christmas 2.0 will turn into sour egg nog.