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By Justin Hein -
By all accounts, Danila Yurov is That Guy.
The Russian sniper is a force all over the ice. His defensive vision and offensive talents are evident every time you pop on his highlights. So why is the front office hesitant to bring him to North America this offseason? In a recent episode of his Worst Seats in the House podcast, Michael Russo reported that:
The reason why Yurov is thinking about re-signing [in the KHL] is that he thinks there’s a chance that he’s going to wind up in Iowa. And that is what Bill Guerin has continually said. When Bill Guerin says, “I am fine with him staying in the KHL,” that’s telling you that in his mind, he’s not thinking [Yurov] is on the team.
On the same podcast, Russo also reported that Danila Yurov has a “contract in waiting.” In other words, Yurov and his KHL club, Metallurg Magnitogorsk, have agreed on the terms of an extension, but Yurov has not yet signed. Presumably, Yurov would prefer another year in the KHL instead of spending most of his time on the Iowa Wild, where his salary would be significantly lower than a one-year KHL deal.
The Wild and Yurov seem to have changed their minds throughout the year. Last summer, The Athletic reported that both parties wanted him in North America for training camp in 2024. Now they seem to be on the same page again, except they’ve both delayed the timeline by a year.
It’s not as if there are questions about Yurov’s abilities. Whether you prefer scouting reports or analytics, Yurov looks incredible.
Scott Wheeler at The Athletic has followed Yurov since before the Wild drafted him, and he loves the Russian forward all over the ice. Wheeler raved about Yurov in his recent prospect pool rankings:
He plays hard and fast, he pushes tempo, he’s a strong and balanced skater, he’s an excellent give-and-go player who excels at playing in and out of space without the puck, his shot comes off of his blade hard in motion (and has added some versatility/different weapons after it was more of a stand-up wrister earlier in his development), he’s got pro size (6-foot-1 and about 180 pounds) and skill, he’s diligent in all three zones, and he’s almost always in the right position or reading the play to get back into it (on offense or defense).
Those skills recently earned Yurov the KHL under-21 scoring record.
Below is an analytical breakdown of Yurov’s production called NHL equivalency (NHLe). NHLe translates points from lower leagues into an estimate of their NHL points. It rewards prospects for playing in more challenging leagues like the KHL. It also provides more weight to goals and primary assists than secondary assists because playing next to elite scorers can inflate secondary assists. That makes NHLe a powerful predictor of scoring ability.
The HockeyProspecting.com model estimates that his KHL scoring is around a 69-point pace based on the difficulty of scoring in the NHL versus the KHL.
Yurov is as sure a bet as you can make before a prospect makes his NHL debut. Then why is the front office hesitant that he could join the Wild roster next season?
It’s not only that there’s no room for a young forward to join the team. Guerin wants to sign Marat Khusnutdinov when his KHL season is over, burning the first year of his ELC. Khusnutdinov is an excellent prospect, but it’s hard to argue that he’s a better player than Yurov.
However, Yurov is slated for a deep playoff run with Metallurg Magnitogorsk, whereas Khusnutdinov’s HC Sochi team will end its season on February 25. That means the Wild can sign Khusnutdinov and assimilate him into their forward lines before the NHL playoffs start. Yurov won’t be available this season, so part of this equation is timing. Khusnutdinov is a better fit to bring some youth into the lineup because he’s available sooner.
Khusnutdinov’s late-season availability is a bit of a pleasant surprise. He started the season on SKA St. Petersburg, who are also slated for a playoff run. However, St. Petersburg traded him to HC Sochi in October. Therefore, during last year’s training camp reports that Yurov would join the Wild in the summer of 2024, nobody knew that Khusnutdinov would have an opportunity to join Minnesota for the end of the 2023-24 season.
Yurov’s renewed involvement with Metallurg is also a positive development. In his 2022-23 season, Yurov averaged only 8:06 minutes per game. This year, it’s up to 15:10. Sometimes, KHL teams will do this to pressure a player into signing an extension. Other times, it’s just a case of a player being in the doghouse with coaches. For whatever reason, that problem seems to have gone away.
That makes playing in Magnitogorsk a better spot for Yurov. It also makes his KHL club an excellent place for Yurov’s long-term development. Yurov can stay in Russia, earn a better salary than he would in Iowa, and continue on a healthy development curve. That was uncertain before this season, but now there’s no rush to bring Yurov to Iowa just to get him minutes. He’s seeing plenty of action in the KHL.
The final issue to address is the risk that if Yurov stays in the KHL, he may be stuck there long-term. Leaving another Russian sniper in the KHL is enough to give a Wild fan flashbacks to the wait for Kaprizov, who stayed there until age 23. But in Yurov’s case, Minnesota has been in close contact with Yurov on his plans to come over soon. Furthermore, the contract extension Magnitogorsk offered Yurov is only a one-year deal.
That starkly contrasts Kaprizov’s situation, where he signed multiple-year KHL extensions and had little to no contact with Wild management until Paul Fenton flew to Russia in 2019. Kaprizov never attended a Wild prospect development camp, but Yurov was in Minnesota last summer.
Perhaps the front office is wrong to take things slow with Yurov. He may be NHL-ready, and they’re missing an opportunity to improve next season’s roster. On the other hand, Vladimir Tarasenko and Evgeniy Kuznetsov followed up prolific age-21 KHL seasons with good-not-great rookie seasons in the NHL at age 22. Perhaps that’s just growing pains transitioning to the NHL. Or maybe it's a signal they needed more time to develop.
Compare that to Kaprizov, who transitioned to the NHL at age 23. Kaprizov scored at a 40-goal pace in his rookie season, which is better than Tarasenko’s age-23 season. If Kaprizov is the blueprint, you can argue that Yurov should spend another year in the KHL.
In Yurov’s case, that extra year could help him find another new level after he changed positions. He moved from wing to center this year, which is incredibly difficult. The early returns were encouraging, but playing center in the NHL is extremely challenging. That alone is a great reason to let Yurov hone his craft for one more year overseas.
There don’t seem to be the same risks in this case as Minnesota had with Kaprizov, and there seem to be good reasons for Yurov to wait a year before cracking the NHL roster. He can work on a new position and be fully ready when he joins the Wild in 2025-26.
Yurov is still a significant part of this franchise’s future. The situation seems to be under control, even if we have to wait another year to see him in forest green. And it seems like the Wild aren’t concerned that this could drag on for more than one season.
It’s exciting to imagine Yurov on the second or third forward line, and it would also be a huge help against next year’s salary cap. Still, the front office seems content to leave Yurov overseas for another season.
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