By Kalisha Turnipseed -
The Minnesota Wild’s biggest storyline this offseason is Kirill Kaprizov’s future. Owner Craig Leipold and general manager Bill Guerin made it clear that the Wild will pay him more than anyone else. However, if Kaprizov signs the mega-extension he’s seeking, who wins and who loses?
Winners
Kaprizov
Kaprizov holds all the leverage. Minnesota is desperate to keep him, and Leipold has gone on record that nobody will pay him more. Kaprizov is the reason the Wild are even in the conversation as a contender.
However, this isn’t just about winning anymore. If Kaprizov signs for something in the $20 million AAV range, it’s about being paid more than Connor McDavid than it is about helping the Wild build a championship roster.
Connor McDavid
McDavid is still the best player in the world, and Kaprizov’s number becomes his bargaining chip. If Kaprizov gets $20 million per year, McDavid won’t settle for anything less than $22 to $23 million AAV on his next contract.
Kaprizov signing for $20 million is a nightmare scenario for the Edmonton Oilers, who already committed $14 million AAV to Leon Draisaitl. To make room, the Oilers would likely have to move on from key pieces like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Zach Hyman. However, both have no-move clauses (NMCs).
Meanwhile, Evan Bouchard just got a $10.5 million AAV extension, and Edmonton could be stuck with a thin roster. In other words, Kaprizov’s contract doesn’t just change Minnesota, but it shifts the entire league.
Kaprizov’s agent
Agents live for moments like this. Negotiating the richest deal in NHL history puts Kaprizov’s agent in a position of power with other clients. While he’s doing right by his player, there’s no consideration for the lasting effect this has on the Wild’s ability to build around Kaprizov. His job isn’t to think about Minnesota’s roster construction, but to get his client every dollar.
Boldy has five years left on his seven-year, $49 million ($7 million AAV) deal. He’ll hit free agency in 2030 when the salary cap is expected to skyrocket. By then, he could easily command $13 to $14 million per year, especially if Kaprizov’s contract sets the new market ceiling. For now, the Wild are lucky to have Boldy locked in at a bargain price.
Losers
Rossi’s development has been one of the Wild’s success stories, but Kaprizov’s extension puts him in a tough spot. Rossi will be looking for $8 to $9 million AAV after his current bridge deal, but the Wild may only be able to offer another short-term contract. That’s not what Rossi wants, and he'll likely trade him before his three-year, $15 million deal expires.
The goalie market is getting more expensive, and Gustavsson won’t see a payday in Minnesota. With Kaprizov eating up cap space, Gustavsson will be stuck with another bridge deal, and he won’t be happy about that. Jesper Wallstedt isn’t ready for full-time duty, which leaves the Wild in a tricky spot between their present and future in net.
Zeev Buium
Buium’s ceiling screams franchise defenseman, but don’t expect him to cash in the way Brock Faber did. Unless he wins the Calder or emerges as a Norris contender early, Guerin won’t have the flexibility to hand him an $8.5 million AAV extension like Faber’s. Kaprizov’s contract would make it harder to pay him what he's worth.
Bill Guerin
If Kaprizov gets $20 million, Guerin will be right back in familiar territory. He'll be leaning on entry-level contracts and signing cheap veterans because of a lack of cap space. Minnesota’s front office has lived this reality during the cap buyouts, and it would continue under a Kaprizov megadeal.
Guerin’s entire plan would hinge on Rossi, Boldy, Faber, Buium, Liam Ohgren, Danila Yurov, and Adam Benak all becoming stars. That’s a massive gamble.
Craig Leipold
Leipold will accomplish his goal of keeping Kaprizov in Minnesota. On the surface level, Leipold gets to keep his superstar, tickets keep selling, and Grand Casino Arena stays packed. However, if a $20 million Kaprizov doesn’t lead to championships, then fans will lose patience.
At some point, fans won’t pay top dollar just to watch a team that can’t realistically contend. Leipold may get the short-term financial win, but face long-term risk and consequences.
Kaprizov deserves every dollar he can get, but the Wild need more than one player to win a Stanley Cup. A $20 million extension would make him the highest-paid player in NHL history and spark a ripple effect across the league. But for Minnesota, it could also mean sacrificing roster depth and delaying the franchise’s window for contention.
The Wild face the conundrum of keeping their superstar happy by overpaying him or trading him.
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