Where Would Rossi Go In A 2020 Redraft?

The Minnesota Wild aren't in a rush to trade Marco Rossi. However, Rossi will likely be on a new team by this upcoming draft or July 1. Rossi experienced a demotion in the lineup during the playoffs while veterans like Ryan Hartman and Freddy Gaudreau got more ice time. Rossi wants to play for a team that values him, but Guerin doesn't seem to see Rossi as a long-term top-six player for the Wild. 

Rossi’s camp proposed a 7-year, $7 million average annual value (AAV) deal that Guerin recently rejected. Guerin wants to extend Rossi for 5 years at $5 million AAV, but Rossi rejected the deal. Both parties aren't on the same page, and it feels like Guerin’s relationship with Rossi is getting strained. 

However, Guerin will be making a big mistake by trading Rossi. 

It's been 5 years since the 2020 draft. Let's see how the NHL would've done a redraft of the top 10 players. 

Here's the original draft results: 

1. New York Rangers – Alexis Lafreniere (LW)
2. Los Angeles Kings – Quinton Byfield (C)
3. Ottawa Senators – Tim Stützle (C)
4. Detroit Red Wings – Lucas Raymond (RW)
5. Ottawa Senators – Jake Sanderson (D)
6. Anaheim Ducks – Jamie Drysdale (D)
7. New Jersey Devils – Alexander Holtz (RW)
8. Buffalo Sabres – Jack Quinn (RW)
9. Minnesota Wild – Marco Rossi (C)
10. Winnipeg Jets – Cole Perfetti (C) 

Here's a redraft based on best player available (BPA) using point-per-game: 

1. Stützle (Rangers): 0.89 points (367 games played) 
2. Raymond (Kings): 0.79 points (320 games played) 
3. Jarvis (Senators): 0.70 points (304 games played) 
4. Rossi (Red Wings): 0.55 points (185 games played) 
5. Perfetti (Senators): 0.56 points (222 games played) 
6. Sanderson (Ducks): 0.54 points (236 games played)
7. Byfield (Devils): 0.55 points (260 games played) 
8. Lundell (Sabers): 0.53 points (295 games played) 
9. Mercer (Wild): 0.51 points (328 games played) 
10. Lafreniere (Jets): 0.51 points  (380 games played) 

The Rangers have to be experiencing buyer’s remorse. Instead of selecting Stutzle 1st overall, they chose to pick Lafreniere, who people believed was a generational talent. However, Lafreniere has struggled to establish himself as a core player in New York. Lafreniere is on the trade block while the Rangers try to upgrade their center position. 

It's difficult to determine if the Kings would've selected Byfield in a redraft. Raymond has been the better producer and would be on LA’s top line. Raymond is a better option to play with Anze Kopitar than Adrian Kempe and Andrei Kuzmenko. Raymond would've been a game-changing presence.

Jarvis has been the biggest surprise in the NHL because the Carolina Hurricanes took him 13th overall. He's a core player for the Hurricanes and an All-Star talent. Perhaps the Wild should've drafted Jarvis when he was available at 9th, but Guerin chose to draft Rossi. 

Ottawa would’ve picked Sanderson 3rd or 5th overall because they had two top picks. However, what if Jarvis was available because the Rangers had taken Stutzle 1st overall? The Senators would have picked Jarvis 3rd had they known he would be an All-Star before Byfield, Lafreniere, and Rossi. 

The Red Wings wouldn't have taken Raymond in a redraft because the Kings would have taken him 2nd. However, with Stutzle, Raymond, and Jarvis off the board, who are the Wings drafting at 4th? Rossi would've been selected to play behind captain Dylan Larkin. If the Wings had gone best player available, they would've made the playoffs with Rossi centering the second line. 

Ottawa would be tempted to draft Perfetti to give them more center depth. Next to Jarvis, Perfetti would have helped the Senators go deeper in the playoffs. Jarvis has yet to appear in the Stanley Cup finals, so the Senators may have picked Sanderson to maintain their blueline depth. 

If the Senators had passed on Sanderson twice, the Ducks would've been ecstatic to see Sanderson available at 6th. Would've easily replaced Cam Fowler, who they traded to the St. Louis Blues at the trade deadline. Sanderson is playing in all situations and the top special teams units for the Ducks. 

The Devils would've loved to have Byfield center their 2nd line with Nico Hischier having to play on the top line because Jack Hughes was injured. Imagine if New Jersey played at full strength with Hughes and Byfield centering their 3rd line against the Hurricanes. Carolina would've had a tougher time beating them in 5 games. 

Buffalo would love to have Lundell as its second-line center behind Tage Thompson. He isn't statistically far away from Dylan Cozens, who the Sabres took 7th overall in 2019. He has scored 0.59 points in 362 games; Lundell has played 295 games and scored 0.53 points. The Florida Panthers are using him in a third-line role, and he’s already won a Stanley Cup. 

The Wild would've taken Mercer at 9th because he's a right-handed forward who can play center and wing. However, the Devils took Mercer with their second pick at 18th overall. Mercer is a better skater than Rossi. Would Mercer have gotten more looks than Rossi? The Wild have long wanted a speedy center next to Kaprizov. Would Mercer centering the top line against the Vegas Golden Knights have made a difference?

The Jets would've closed out the top 10 by selecting Lafreniere. From Lafreniere's standpoint, he should be frustrated that he slipped from 1st overall. Would the Rangers have had a better version of Lafreniere if he had played in the AHL and dominated? 

Here's the picks based on team needs: 

1. Stutzle (Rangers) 
2. Raymond (Kings) 
3. Byfield (Senators) 
4. Jarvis (Red Wings) 
5. Sanderson (Senators) 
6. Rossi (Ducks) 
7. Lundell (Devils) 
8. Perfetti (Sabers) 
9. Mercer (Wild) 
10. Dylan Holloway (Jets): 0.49 points (166 games played) 

I can see Ottawa preferring size and taking Byfield before Jarvis and Rossi. Imagine Byfield and Brady Tkachuk playing together on the Senators’ top line. The bigger, the better for the Senators. They likely wouldn't have traded for Dylan Cozens if Byfield were on the team. 

Jarvis isn't slipping past the Wings. He would look electrifying with Larkin. Anaheim would have grabbed Rossi if he slid to the 6th pick. The Ducks wouldn’t have traded for Cutter Gauthier if they had Rossi on their second line. Lundell is New Jersey’s third-line center, and the Devils would've beaten the Hurricanes with him on the second line. 

The Sabers aren't letting Perfetti slip past them, and the Wild are still standing strong in picking the speedster in Mercer to play with Kaprizov, who has better puck-moving ability than Holloway. However, if Mercer were taken before the Wild selects at 9th, they would take Holloway over Lafreniere. The Edmonton Oilers drafted Holloway 14th overall before they traded him to St. Louis via offer sheet. 

Winnipeg would've been more intrigued with Holloway than Lafreniere. Holloway is on pace to pass Lafreniere in points scored; Lafreniere is only scoring at a 2% higher rate than Holloway. I can see the Jets wanting size, speed, grit, tenacity, and versatility in Holloway that fits their system. However, is Guerin taking Holloway before the Jets? Holloway is a Guerin-type player. Holloway is also catching up to Mercer. Lafreniere would fall out of the top 10. 

The verdict? 

Minnesota should sign Rossi to a 5-year extension worth $6.5 million per year. Guerin wants to extend Rossi for 5 years. However, Rossi wants around $7 million. So, can Guerin live with paying Rossi $1.5 million more than $5 million? 

Guerin has a future top center and fails to acknowledge that because Rossi is 5-foot-9. Rossi has performed better than Lafreniere, Byfield, and Sanderson, who were picked before him. Prepare for a sad departure, Wild fans.