By Tony Abbott -
Back in July, the word on the street was that almost every team in the NHL was looking to get better. The Pittsburgh Penguins were the only real sellers this offseason, with the rest of the league's bottom-feeders holding tight. The Buffalo Sabres, Chicago Blackhawks, and San Jose Sharks decided against selling off talent. Meanwhile, the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks spent big, bringing in players like JJ Peterka and Chris Kreider.
This state of affairs leads one to wonder:
What's with the lack of teams looking to submit an offer sheet to Marco Rossi?
Rossi, a restricted free agent, is stuck in a stalemate with the Minnesota Wild. On last week's "Worst Seats in the House" podcast, Michael Russo reported that the two sides haven't negotiated since before the start of free agency. We can determine from that nugget that the divide between the two sides remains around $2 million per year apart, and perhaps more.
If teams are trying to get better, then a top-six center would be a great place to do it. Upgrading at the most important position for the cost of ~$7 million, as well as a first- and third-round pick, is fairly reasonable. There's not a lack of potential suitors, either. 18 teams can put up the draft capital to put an offer sheet on Rossi's table.
So why haven't they?
GMs tend to dislike stoking bad blood for no reason, and Bill Guerin has vowed to match any offer sheet. Still, at the same time, he insists there's a price point they don't want to go above. Would Guerin be willing to sign, say, a four-year, $26 to $28 million deal that would walk Rossi up to free agency, committing to a hefty cap hit without buying any UFA years? It doesn't seem like there's any downside in calling Minnesota's bluff.
This could change at any moment, especially as we inch closer to training camp, but it seems like there's no urgency for these teams that want to improve to actually try to improve. There must be a reason, so let's break down these 18 teams that are able to sign Rossi and try to figure out what the hang-up is.
Group 1: Not Enough Cap Space
Boston Bruins, Los Angeles Kings, Montreal Canadiens, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Winnipeg Jets
These teams are projected to have fewer than $5 million in cap space once the season starts, making it difficult to move enough around to accommodate a budget of $6.5 to $7 million. Among the teams on the list, that's probably most unfortunate for the Bruins.
Boston has one of the league's best players in David Pastrnak and one of the best goaltenders in Jeremy Swayman. Their roster is built to win now, but their top-six centers consist of Elias Lindholm and Morgan Geekie.
Rossi showed last year what he can do with an MVP-caliber shooter, and his presence would give the Bruins an Under-25 1-2 punch with James Hagens for the long term. Alas, money's tight.
Group 2: Too Bad To Risk It
Chicago Blackhawks, Nashville Predators, Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers
Realistically, these teams aren't making the playoffs next year. Even in the case of a team like Nashville, what's the point of potentially giving away a lottery pick unless you know you can get out of the gutter?
Dragging an aging, expensive roster into the playoffs doesn't sound that smart.
Group 3: No Pressing Need
Columbus Blue Jackets, New Jersey Devils
It's no surprise to see the Devils here, with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Dawson Mercer able to play down the middle.
It's a bit surprising to see the Blue Jackets, but that sounds right. For next season, Sean Monahan and Adam Fantilli don't seem like the best depth, but with top prospect Cayden Lindstrom in the system, the Jackets aren't far from having a young, legit pair of top-six centers. Are they going to want to spend $7 million on what will likely be their third-line center?
Group 4: Bigger Fish To Fry
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks have Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish... except that they don't. McTavish, like Rossi, is an RFA and needs a new contract.
Could they use an upgrade at center? Why not? Rossi is currently an upgrade over McTavish and would give them a strong top-nine up the middle. But you probably shouldn't throw offer sheets around when you've got a prominent RFA of your own able to take offers from other teams... including the Wild.
Group 5: Besties, WTF Are You Doing???
This leaves us four teams that haven't put in an offer sheet to Rossi, or at least, not to our knowledge. And in all four cases, it's very difficult to understand why.
The Buffalo Sabres may have three players, Tage Thompson, Joshua Norris, and Ryan McLeod, who can play center. Still, Thompson's defensive abilities and faceoff acumen might suggest a move to wing full-time would be better. It's not like Buffalo doesn't have talented players, but they've never been able to have it coalesce into a real hockey team. A two-way center with skill makes a whole lot of sense, particularly after losing some skill in Peterka this offseason.
The Calgary Flames' apparent disinterest in Rossi is probably the most confusing in the NHL. Their top two centers, Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund, are 35 and 34, respectively. Connor Zary, another RFA this summer, is the same age as Rossi, but scored just a half-point per game. They have zero top-six caliber center prospects. Calgary has $15 million in cap space and a Wild-like allergy to bottoming out, with just one top-five pick (No. 4, 2014, Sam Bennett) in their 45-year existence. It defies understanding.
This is Year 7 of Steve Yzerman with the Detroit Red Wings. He has zero playoff appearances and has drafted one forward who's better than Rossi. They could use a No. 2 center between Dylan Larkin and Marco Kasper. They fell just short of the playoffs last year. Shouldn't he be feeling some pressure to win? To upgrade down the middle?
We wrote about this possibility as free agency opened, but our point still stands: Rossi's a good way for the Utah Mammoth to help themselves and hurt the Wild. They've got just enough cap space to make it happen, they can perfectly slot Rossi between Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton, and the Mammoth have a coach in André Tourigny who loves and believes in Rossi. It's hard to believe Rossi wouldn't sign on the dotted line to play for him.
Realistically, there aren't a dozen suitors for Rossi, not at this stage of the offseason. But even now, there are four teams that it feels like a no-brainer to take a flier on Rossi with an offer sheet and see what shakes loose. The Sabres, Flames, Red Wings, and Mammoth should want to take a step next season. So what's the hold-up to getting better? The longer this drags on, the more confusing it gets.
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