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  • Where Does Zeev Buium Stand In the Calder Race?


    Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
    Benjamin Marois

    We’re only two weeks into the regular season schedule, but the Calder Trophy race is already shaping up to be thrilling.

    Three names stand out above the rest: Montreal Canadiens winger Ivan Demidov, New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer, and Minnesota Wild defenseman Zeev Buium.

    The first two were already seen as early Calder favorites before the season began, and they’ve lived up to the hype.

    Ivan Demidov

    Demidov has been excellent for Montreal, recording 9 points in 10 games while averaging just 13:58 of ice time per night. Head coach Martin St. Louis has been easing the 19-year-old Russian into a bigger role, careful not to overload him with responsibilities too soon in his first true season with the Canadiens. 

    Still, his production has been impressive, especially considering he only joined the top power-play unit in Montreal’s most recent game against Vancouver, where he notched three points, including two on the man advantage.

    Demidov also ranks tied for fourth in the league in primary assists with six. In fact, six of his seven total assists have directly led to goals. His evolution and usage will be fascinating to watch in the coming weeks and months, and his trajectory seems entirely positive. Barring a major injury, Demidov looks like a near-lock to be among the Calder finalists.

    Matthew Schaefer

    While many expected a strong start from Demidov, the same can be applied to Matthew Schaefer, even though his expectations were not as high as Demidov’s. The Islanders took him as the first overall pick in the latest draft, and he has enormous potential. Still, few predicted he’d post 7 points in his first 8 NHL games while averaging 23:12 of ice time per night, the 37th highest in the entire league and the most among rookies.

    Schaefer has impressed not just with his offensive numbers, but with his remarkable poise and maturity for an 18-year-old. He plays like a ten-year veteran, making few turnovers, driving clean breakouts, supporting his forwards, and showing an elite work ethic. Patrick Roy has already given him major responsibilities, and Schaefer has handled them like a pro.

    Long known for their dull, defense-first style, the Islanders are third in the NHL in goals per game (3.75), and Schaefer’s smooth skating and efficient zone exits have been a key factor in that transformation.

    Buium is a dark horse

    If Demidov and Schaefer seem like near-certainties for Calder contention, Zeev Buium is more of a dark horse, but he’s quietly building a strong case. 

    The Wild defenseman has 8 points in 10 games, a -8 rating, and averages 20:01 of ice time per night, solid numbers for a rookie blueliner.

    Like Demidov, Buium joins a team that already has established talent on both ends of the ice. Therefore, his role isn’t as prominent as Schaefer’s, who benefits from a larger opportunity on a rebuilding Islanders squad. 

    Buium ran Minnesota’s top power-play unit for his first eight games before giving up that spot to captain Jared Spurgeon and occasionally Brock Faber, as the Wild tried to spark their offense amid a losing streak.

    Still, as mentioned earlier, Buium is in a learning phase. Therefore, his development curve will likely be slower than Schaefer’s because their team contexts are so different. Minnesota is fighting for a playoff spot, while the Islanders are focused on rebuilding, despite their unexpectedly strong start.

    Buium continues to do an excellent job defensively. He rarely gets caught in his own zone by turnovers, loves to jump into the rush, and carries the puck confidently through the neutral zone. The Wild have long struggled to generate offense from the back end, but with Buium, they finally have a young gem on defense.

    The key for him is patience. Buium sits second in rookie scoring, just behind Demidov. Expectations among Wild fans are high, and frustration is growing as the team has managed only 3 wins in 10 games. 

    Still, Buium isn’t to blame, and fans know it. They recognize that he’s been one of the team’s bright spots, and if he keeps this up, he could very well find himself in the top three Calder finalists by season’s end.

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    Hutson got with 66 points and a -2.  I get why Buium's defense is scary, but taking him off primary PP minutes really shortchanges his biggest strengths.  

    Sure, expecting him to end up at 70-80 points is a bit much, but this team needs to outscore its defensive problems.

    Note: the whole defense is at fault for this situation, not just Buium.

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    Nanne was on K fan talking about wild d not being physical. They said Billy made a comment you can’t expect a guy who’s not a hitter to start hitting. Like Nanne said. Checking is a part of hockey!  It’s the easiest thing to teach. You don’t need to kill guys but make contact.  . It takes  opponents out of the play or delays opponents. Which in turn kills plays our causes chaos in what the other team is trying to do. So why is it a part of hockey and is one of the easiest things to teach yet the wild don’t do it?  It’s what wins in the playoffs  yet we don’t do it or value it.  
        Zeev seems to have offensive upside but defensively he’s calen addison . Looking at jiricek being a 5 year pro and so bad defensively, it makes you wonder can or will Zeev ever get it defensively. Neither one is physical and neither one can play d at this point . Is  defense really something that can be taught at this age of these prospects?  Or is Zeev one dimensional? I haven’t seen enough to form an opinion but sure sounds a lot like the Addison stuff already as far as hyping before he delivers 

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    8 minutes ago, Dean said:

    Nanne was on K fan talking about wild d not being physical. They said Billy made a comment you can’t expect a guy who’s not a hitter to start hitting. Like Nanne said. Checking is a part of hockey!  It’s the easiest thing to teach. You don’t need to kill guys but make contact.  . It takes  opponents out of the play or delays opponents. Which in turn kills plays our causes chaos in what the other team is trying to do. So why is it a part of hockey and is one of the easiest things to teach yet the wild don’t do it?  It’s what wins in the playoffs  yet we don’t do it or value it.  
        Zeev seems to have offensive upside but defensively he’s calen addison . Looking at jiricek being a 5 year pro and so bad defensively, it makes you wonder can or will Zeev ever get it defensively. Neither one is physical and neither one can play d at this point . Is  defense really something that can be taught at this age of these prospects?  Or is Zeev one dimensional? I haven’t seen enough to form an opinion but sure sounds a lot like the Addison stuff already as far as hyping before he delivers 

    I think the difference with Zeev is he's a very smart player....and he's still very young. 

    I really do think we'll be seeing improvements throughout the year. Time will tell.

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    14 hours ago, Dean said:

    Zeev seems to have offensive upside but defensively he’s calen addison

    I disagree with this completely.  Addison had no defense at all.  I think Buium does an adequate job on D.  Not perfect.. .but he is learning.  His movement with the puck is better than Addison ever had and he is smart enough to know when to engage and when to hang back (most of the time)... still learning.

    His negative stat is actually better than Spurgeon's and Foligno's. Two players that have prided themselves on their D-zone play in the past.  This entire team has a D-zone problem that needs to be fixed.

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    15 hours ago, Dean said:

    So why is it a part of hockey and is one of the easiest things to teach yet the wild don’t do it?  It’s what wins in the playoffs  yet we don’t do it or value it.  
        Zeev seems to have offensive upside but defensively he’s calen addison .

    The top part of this comment is real, and it is about playing the "right way" which is always preached by the Wild coaching staff. Put another way, if you are not checking, you are not playing the game the right way. Now, there's checking and then there's Foligno type obliterating. We're not asking for Foligno bombs by everyone, but we are asking for them to take the body and not get mesmerized by the puck. 

    The 2nd part of the highlighted comment I cannot agree with. The results look very similar: -8 in 10 games. However, Addison had no interest in playing defense, was allergic to body contact initiated by himself, and when he got beat on rushes he turned around and loafed back.

    Buium I have seen rub guys out, give an effort to defend and battle. While the results look similar, I see a whole different attitude with Buium than Addison. Addison could have acclimated to the NHL defending, but he ignored advice from Spurgeon, and in his 2nd year showed little to no improvement in his deficiencies. Buium, on the other hand, looks like he is learning and really has to get up to speed on the NHL moves. The opponents have gotten him several times, but it does look like he learns from that and won't let a lot of it happen again. 

    Am I advocating this comment?

    Quote

    Buium continues to do an excellent job defensively. He rarely gets caught in his own zone by turnovers, loves to jump into the rush, and carries the puck confidently through the neutral zone. The Wild have long struggled to generate offense from the back end, but with Buium, they finally have a young gem on defense.

    No, he is often caught out of position and hasn't done an excellent job defensively, thus the -8. He's been with Spurgeon the most through the 10 games. We know what Spurgy can do defensively, to suggest that Spurgy might be the reason for the -8 is a bit of a reach.

    But throughout the 10 games so far, I am noticing that the Wild defenders are not packing the inside. They are chasing the perimeter which is exactly what the opposition is looking for. This is a flaw that they need to fix. Our goalies are good enough to handle perimeter shots. They are not good enough to handle constant pressure in the home plate area. If you want to help out the goalies, let other teams shoot from the perimeter and snuff out anything in the middle. Whoever's in charge of coaching the defense should see this concept as low hanging fruit. 

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    Zeev

    image.png.d87bb50753615653573f7c8876f7ecdc.png

    Spurge

    image.png.d73e60778265acb888ef94d854fea891.png

    Zeev and Spurgeon were line mates in games 1, 2, 3, 4, 7,10 

    Zeev and Brodin were line mates in game 8,9 

    In games with Spurgeon, Zeev gave up goals of  0,6,1,4,1,1 for a total of 13 goals against.  With 6 games played with Spurgeon that is 2.16 goals average given up with Spurgeon.

    In games 8 and 9 with Brodin, Zeev gave up goals of 1 and 1 for an average of 1.

    Zeev played without our top two D in games 5,6 and 11.  He gave up goals of 1, 0, and 2.  3 goals in 3 games.  Average of 1 goal against.

    This suggests that Zeev is actually playing better defensively when NOT paired with Spurgeon.  His GA average does not change with other players. 

    Spurgeon with Zeev is 0,3,2,1,0,2.  8 goals against. 1.3 Goals Against Average.

    Spurgeon without Zeev is games 5,6,8,9,11.  His goals against him in those games is 1,0,2,1,2.  6 goals against in 5 games or 1.2 goals against average per game.

    All told Zeev has been on the ice for 16 goals and Spurgeon has been on the ice for 15 goals. 

    Zeev Average goals against per game is 1.45

    Spurgeon average goals against per game is 1.36.

    Can we deduce from this that Spurgeon and Zeev do not pair well together.  It is interesting that if you take away the Columbus game all the numbers become extremely close.  But they do suggest that Zeev does not pair well with Spurgeon.  Zeev plays better with a more disciplined d-man partner next to him.  It also suggests that Spurgeon is giving up goals at about the same rate with or without Zeev.  In other words, Zeev is not negatively affecting Spurgeon.

    I did this review rather quickly.  Let me know if I got my numbers mixed up.
     

    Edited by MNCountryLife
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    22 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

     

    I did this review rather quickly.  Let me know if I got my numbers mixed up.
     

    I've been really impressed with the tools for this over at dobbersports (https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/zeev-buium#lines) for this.  Their website layout kinda sucks with two 'top bars' where the lower 'top bar' has the interesting 'lines' and 'analytics' tabs

    Your thesis appears a bit off, as JoBro/BooBro were only paired 5% of the time.

    But basically, Zeev + Anybody was better than Zeev + Spurgy...

    Num Time % Line GF GA +/- SF SA SF% CF CA CF%
    1 86:42 50.4 JARED SPURGEON - ZEEV BUIUM 1 6 -5 31 48 39.2 79 97 44.9
    2 28:06 16.3 ZACH BOGOSIAN - ZEEV BUIUM 0 0 0 12 16 42.9 25 28 47.2
    3 20:36 12.0 DAVID JIRICEK - ZEEV BUIUM 1 1 0 10 11 47.6 20 18 52.6
    4 15:27 9.0 BROCK FABER - ZEEV BUIUM 0 1 -1 9 9 50.0 18 19 48.6
    5 8:35 5.0 JONAS BRODIN - ZEEV BUIUM 0 0 0 2 6 25.0 6 9 40.0
    6 7:26 4.3 JAKE MIDDLETON - ZEEV BUIUM 1 0 1 3 2 60.0 6 3 66.7
    7 4:26 2.6 ZEEV BUIUM 0 3 -3 4 3 57.1 7 5 58.3
    8 0:12 0.1 JARED SPURGEON - BROCK FABER - ZEEV BUIUM 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
    9 0:11 0.1 JARED SPURGEON - JAKE MIDDLETON - ZEEV BUIUM 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
    10 0:06 0.1 JARED SPURGEON - JONAS BRODIN - ZEEV BUIUM 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
    Edited by MrCheatachu
    fixed link
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    2 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

    Your thesis appears a bit off, as JoBro/BooBro were only paired 5% of the time.

    Thanks for the heads up on dobbersports.  I grabbed the information from NHL.com.  It doesn't account for changes during the game.  

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    Just now, MNCountryLife said:

    Thanks for the heads up on dobbersports.  I grabbed the information from NHL.com.  It doesn't account for changes during the game.  

    Yeah, BooBro/JoBro have only played together for 8:35 min total.  Not sure that's a big enough sample size to make a determination of his ability to play together.

    In fact, the only CF% worse than Spurg/Zeev was JoBro/BooBro...

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    6 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

    Yeah, BooBro/JoBro have only played together for 8:35 min total.  Not sure that's a big enough sample size to make a determination of his ability to play together.

    In fact, the only CF% worse than Spurg/Zeev was JoBro/BooBro...

    according to dobber Zeev plays best with Mids.  Interesting.

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    19 hours ago, Dean said:

    Nanne was on K fan talking about wild d not being physical. They said Billy made a comment you can’t expect a guy who’s not a hitter to start hitting. Like Nanne said. Checking is a part of hockey!  It’s the easiest thing to teach. You don’t need to kill guys but make contact.  . It takes  opponents out of the play or delays opponents. Which in turn kills plays our causes chaos in what the other team is trying to do. So why is it a part of hockey and is one of the easiest things to teach yet the wild don’t do it?  It’s what wins in the playoffs  yet we don’t do it or value it.  
        Zeev seems to have offensive upside but defensively he’s calen addison . Looking at jiricek being a 5 year pro and so bad defensively, it makes you wonder can or will Zeev ever get it defensively. Neither one is physical and neither one can play d at this point . Is  defense really something that can be taught at this age of these prospects?  Or is Zeev one dimensional? I haven’t seen enough to form an opinion but sure sounds a lot like the Addison stuff already as far as hyping before he delivers 

    Philly obviously wasn't that high on Buium. He's still very young. 

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    48 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    Can we deduce from this that Spurgeon and Zeev do not pair well together.  It is interesting that if you take away the Columbus game all the numbers become extremely close.  But they do suggest that Zeev does not pair well with Spurgeon.  Zeev plays better with a more disciplined d-man partner next to him.  It also suggests that Spurgeon is giving up goals at about the same rate with or without Zeev.  In other words, Zeev is not negatively affecting Spurgeon.

    We haven't tried Zeev with Faber yet. Would you consider Faber a bit more disciplined as a partner? I would.

    My comment on Spurgeon not being the problem is more than this year's body of work. Spurgeon looks like the same player as in year's past. It doesn't appear as if he's lost a step, but the evidence here is clear, Spurgeon and Buium do not look as if they are good pairings, and I will have to take my opinion of this pairing back to the drawing board. 

    Just out of curiosity, how does Buium do with Jiricek? I think he's played with him for 3 games. It's not just the goals against, but also the TOI.

    Mr. Cheatachu's version shows the TOI together and is a better organized look at it, but with Buium playing with Jiricek, I'm guessing that they weren't on the ice as often. 

    Edited by mnfaninnc
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    3 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    We haven't tried Zeev with Faber yet. Would you consider Faber a bit more disciplined as a partner? I would.

    My comment on Spurgeon not being the problem is more than this year's body of work. Spurgeon looks like the same player as in year's past. It doesn't appear as if he's lost a step, but the evidence here is clear, Spurgeon and Buium do not look as if they are good pairings, and I will have to take my opinion of this pairing back to the drawing board. 

    Just out of curiosity, how does Buium do with Jiricek? I think he's played with him for 3 games. It's not just the goals against, but also the TOI.

    Based on MrCheatachu's graph, it shows Zeev/Faber have been on the ice for 15 minutes and Zeev/Jiricek 20 minutes.

    Zeev/Faber are  +/-  of negative 1 

    Zeev/Jiricek are +/- of 0

    Zeev is definitely comfortable with both of them. Yes, I would consider Faber a more "At Home" style defender.  Similar to Brodin.  I do think Hynes is sheltering Jiricek a bit.  But Jiricek is a plus/minus of zero.  Not too shabby for a guy that seems to fail the eye test a bit too often.  He may be earning a bit more time from Hynes.

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    If you go to the bottom of the Dobbersports site, there's a nifty plot that shows the players corsi for% vs their 'Quality of Competition' metric vs. their offensive zone deployment.

    More positive 'Quality of Competition' means you're on the ice with the best players, higher CF% shows you're generating more offense than defense.

    • JoBro/Fabes have been paired together so not surprising to see their bubbles close together with similar CF% (Blue color). 
    • Jiricek is definitely getting sheltered minutes
    • We aint getting many offensive zone starts...I guess i dont understand how the entire team is <50%...that seems to suggest we're not getting much offensive pressure as a team that is winning should.

    image.png.4c737a235637c3d2aab88920f3c2bf14.png

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    23 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:
    • Jiricek is definitely getting sheltered minutes

    I took a peek at 22-23 season, and removed the players names...anybody want to guess where Addison is, defined as 'Average Sheltered Defenseman' or Merrill labeled 'Struggling Depth Defenseman' ?


    image.png.4769beeee962421eb14c82c75b4a990a.png

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    We all know that the Calder Trophy is political and based primarily on the points produced by the player.  That being said, Jakub Dobes should win this  going away.  Dobes has 6 wins in 6 games.  GAA average of 1.97.  And a save percentage of .930.  

    Demidov has 9 points in 11 games which is impressive but his teammate in Dobes will take votes away from him.  

    Zeev has 8 points in 11 games which is similar to Matthew Schafer and Emmitt Finnie.  

    Oliver Kapanen from Montreal which is another player doing well as a rookie will take away from Demidov and Dobes as well.

    So, I like the chances that Zeev can win this Trophy.  He will play on a very potent power play all season.  When the team decides to start scoring again he will get more points.  I doubt there will be a fatigue thing with this guy because he has played a ton of hockey over the past few years.  

    Trophy or not the Wild have a pretty good hockey player in Zeev. 

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    14 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

    I like the chances that Zeev can win this Trophy.  He will play on a very potent power play all season.

    Will Hynes still play Buium on the Power Play1 though?  He doesn't have a PP point since game 4. I know I've seen Spurgeon and Faber there some recently. Spurgeon is running PP1 in the last 5-6 games, with at least 8 more PP minutes than Buium in that span.

    Hynes could certainly limit Buium's chances at the award, perhaps along with the effectiveness of the Wild's power play. Interestingly, PP2 is suddenly far more effective than PP1 over the last 6 games. No player has been on the ice for more of the Wild's power play goals than Buium(11 out of 14).

     

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    19 hours ago, MrCheatachu said:

    anybody want to guess where Addison is, defined as 'Average Sheltered Defenseman' or Merrill labeled 'Struggling Depth Defenseman' ?

    Addison is the little blue dot with around 59% offensive zone starts, right?

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    9 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Will Hynes still play Buium on the Power Play1 though?  He doesn't have a PP point since game 4. I know I've seen Spurgeon and Faber there some recently. Spurgeon is running PP1 in the last 5-6 games, with at least 8 more PP minutes than Buium in that span.

    Hynes could certainly limit Buium's chances at the award, perhaps along with the effectiveness of the Wild's power play. Interestingly, PP2 is suddenly far more effective than PP1 over the last 6 games. No player has been on the ice for more of the Wild's power play goals than Buium(11 out of 14).

     

    Buium is playing over 20 minutes a game and is often in the action every time he is on the ice.  The only other option on the Power Play that would make sense is Jiricek but that isn't going to happen.  

    The politics of the award will more than likely put a Montreal or the kid in New York with the award.  Buium will have a fantastic season and Minnesota will have another player that should have won it and didn't. 

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