When Will Kirill Kaprizov Catch Fire Again?

Kirill Kaprizov went from driving an early Hart-caliber pace last season before his lower-body injury to opening this year below his usual scoring clip. The contrast between those stretches tells a story about expectations, health, and how much weight rests on his shoulders in Minnesota. 

The underlying signs suggest his game is rounding into form. Still, the bar he set before getting hurt makes this season’s “slow start” feel louder than it might actually be in a vacuum. The numbers suggest there may be an extra gear he can reach, or that his scoring is a bit more spread out this year.

Before everything derailed in late January, Kaprizov’s 2024-25 season was one of the best individual campaigns in franchise history. He scored 23 goals and 52 points in only 37 games before surgery, putting him on a 50-goal, 115-point pace over a full season. 

Kaprizov’s production was front-loaded but sustainable, driven by his usual blend of volume shooting, power-play touch, and transition play. In his first 19 games alone, he recorded 13 goals and 34 points, essentially dragging the Wild to relevance every night with multi-point performances. 

Those early months were the version of Kaprizov that changes game plans and award ballots. Defenses shaded towards him at five-on-five, and penalty kills overplayed his flank. Still, he found ways to create, often tilting the ice almost single-handedly when Minnesota needed a push.

The turning point was the lower-body injury that ultimately led to surgery in late January and a much longer absence than the original four-week estimate. What began as he’ll be back before the end of the regular season turned into months of uncertainty and speculation around how much damage had been done, physically and rhythmically, to the Wild’s most important player.

Kirill Kaprizov missed roughly half the season, playing in only 41 games, yet still finished with 25 goals and 31 assists for 56 points, a testament to his dominance when available. Even in a “lost” year, he produced at a 122-point pace over 82 games, reinforcing just how far above replacement level his game sits when he is healthy and in rhythm.

The injury didn’t just rob him of games. It disrupted his timing, interrupted his conditioning curve, and forced him to rebuild his explosiveness and confidence in tight spaces. All are areas central to how he attacks off the rush and manipulates defenders on the half wall.

Fast forward to 2025-26, and Kaprizov’s counting numbers still look strong, but they lack the same shock-factor as last year’s pre-injury explosion. Through 42 games, he has 24 goals and 48 points. That’s excellent by most standards, but clearly a step down from the 56 points he had through only 41 games a year ago. 

One notable pattern: Kaprizov needed time to heat up, with only eight goals over his first 29 appearances before finding the net more consistently as the schedule wore on. The “slow start” label fits relative to expectations, not reality. Kaprizov is the same player who once started with three goals in 15 games and still finished with 47 on the year has a history of building as seasons progress. 

His volume and usage suggest the underlying engine remains intact. Kaprizov continues to log heavy minutes, drive the top power-play unit, and generate a high number of attempts, even if the puck has not exploded off his stick quite as ruthlessly as it did before the injury disrupted his trajectory.

Kaprizov’s early 2024-25 heater reset what normal looks like for him, and that context is doing a lot of work this season. When a winger spends three months on a 50-plus-goal, Hart Trophy pace, anything short of that can be read as underwhelming, even if the actual numbers are still star-level. 

Fans are no longer comparing Kaprizov to the rest of the roster; they’re comparing him to his peak. The version who had 7 goals and 14 assists in his first 11 games of last year and seemed to create something dangerous every shift. The memory of that dominance makes this season’s streaky finishing and quieter stretches feel somewhat magnified, especially in games where Minnesota’s offense still runs almost entirely through him.

There is also the residue from last year’s injury. Any time a player has surgery and misses months, the focus naturally shifts beyond box scores to questions about burst, edgework, and whether he looks “like himself.” That lens has colored much of the discussion around his 2025-26 start.

History suggests this version of Kaprizov, more streaky than overpowering, but still productive, is more of a phase than a new baseline. He has shown before that early-season lulls do not prevent him from finishing among the league's elite scorers. Nothing in his usage or role suggests Minnesota will dial back expectations anytime soon. 

As Kaprizov’s confidence in his post-surgery body continues to grow, so should his willingness to attack off the rush, cut inside more aggressively, and lean into the deceptive release that made last fall such a nightmare for goalies. 

If his recent scoring bump holds, this “slow start” may ultimately look more like a delayed ignition in the first truly normal season after a major disruption, not a sign that last year's form was a one-off spike. In other words, last year's pre-injury heater established the ceiling; this year's early grind reflects the reality of recovery and expectation. The rest of this season will determine how quickly Kaprizov can climb back towards the standard he set when everything was clicking.