What Would Spending $16 Million On Kirill Kaprizov Mean?

When it comes to Kirill Kaprizov, the line from Minnesota Wild owner Craig Leipold has been unwavering from the start. At the beginning of last season, Mr. Leipold told the press, "Nobody will offer more money than us." Eleven months later, it's becoming clear he wasn't bluffing.

"[Kaprizov's upcoming contract] will be a huge deal -- likely the biggest the NHL has ever seen," declared Mr. Leipold last week. How huge? According to Elliotte Friedman on his "32 Thoughts" podcast: "I don't know if this is where it's gonna end up, but there are rumors out there the Wild will go to 8 [years] times $16 [million] for Kaprizov."

Wowza.

Make no mistake, Kaprizov was always going to get PAID. The salary cap is about to spike, which would have inflated the price regardless, and the Wild are in a position where they need to retain their superstar player. Kaprizov is easily the best player ever to put on a Wild uniform, and after spending to the cap year after year for a string of first-round exits, Mr. Leipold doesn't seem prepared to let him slip away over something as small as "money."

If you're the Wild, you do whatever it takes to secure Kaprizov's services. But when he signs on the dotted line, the organization is going to have to live within the confines of that new reality.

$16 million would make Kaprizov the highest-paid player in the NHL, and it's a decent bet that will hold after Connor McDavid re-signs with the Edmonton Oilers. During the first year of his deal (2026-27), his salary will account for 15.38% of the salary cap. That's a higher percentage of the cap than Nathan MacKinnon (15.09), Auston Matthews (15.06), and Leon Draisaitl (14.65) took up in the first years of their deals.

Heck, that'd be $500K more than the combined cap hits of Brock Faber, a No. 1 defenseman ($8.5M) and Matt Boldy, a 70-point top-line winger ($7M).

Now, the conventional wisdom in the NHL has been that the league's top players have been underpaid. A great example is Kaprizov. His last contract had him making $9 million against the cap, which was at the time the largest contract for someone who had under 60 games of experience at the time of signing.

But last season, Dom Luszczyszyn had the market value of his play (presumably prorated for a full season) pegged at $14.9 million. Having Kaprizov at $9 million was basically like signing a $6 million player.

However, you might notice, $14.9 million isn't as much as $16 million. The market has been correcting for the top players, and superstars are finally getting superstar dollars. From here on out, those bargains are drying up.

Well, before here, actually. Let's look at those three superstar deals we mentioned: MacKinnon, Matthews, and Draisaitl. Injuries held Matthews to "only" 33 goals and 78 points in 67 games last year, but his two-way play remained at a high level. By Luszczyszyn's measure, he was the second-best player in the Atlantic Division, behind only Nikita Kucherov and ahead of MVP-quality players like David Pastrnak, Aleksander Barkov, and Mitch Marner. Still, the value of his play ($13.1M) was slightly lower than his cap hit ($13.25M). 

MacKinnon's 32-goal, 116-point season had him fourth in Hart Trophy voting this season. It was the second-highest point total of his career, despite losing Mikko Rantanen via a mid-season trade. It's hard to ask for a better season from a superstar player. But all that produced a surplus of "only" $1.5 million on his $12.6 million cap hit.

Then there's Draisaitl, who Luszczyszyn's model rated as the top skater in the NHL. He won the Rocket Richard Trophy with 52 goals and scored 106 points, with only Connor Hellebuyck standing between him and a second Hart Trophy. Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement metric valued him as being worth 9.0 points in the standings for Edmonton, the leader among all skaters. Again, it's hard to ask for a better season.

Draisaitl put up that season under his old contract, so the Oilers got incredible savings. But if Kaprizov puts up an equivalent season in any year of a $16 million contract, he'll deliver the Wild a surplus of... $300K.

So, at least for the first few seasons of the contract, Kaprizov is going to have to play at that MVP-like level to fully justify the dollars. That's a high, high standard.

And yet, it's a standard Kaprizov showed he could live up to last year. Despite his injuries, Kaprizov managed to put up an 82-game pace of 50 goals and 112 points. His half-season was worth 4.0 points in the standings for the Wild. Double that, and you have 8.0, which would have ranked third in the NHL.

There are also benefits beyond his individual numbers. Like most superstars, Kaprizov makes others better, setting up the likes of Boldy, Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Marco Rossi with his incredible passing. Minnesota might not be getting savings on Kaprizov, but Kaprizov can help them squeeze extra value from the players around him.

More important, however, might be what he means to the organization and the state. The Wild waited two decades to see a player like Kaprizov come to the organization. It might take another two to find another one if Kaprizov were to walk. Mr. Leipold has waited over 17 years to see this team get to a Conference Final. If $16 million is the cost of not having to take a step back, then the cost is the cost.

Also, the fact is that Minnesota doesn't have the ready-made Stanley Cup contender that made a player like Rantanen sign with the Dallas Stars, or Marner with Vegas, for significantly less money. They hope to get there soon, absolutely, but the fact remains that Minnesota's not a free agent draw, and has to pony up to keep the biggest fish they've ever reeled in.

It might turn into a popular sentiment that Kaprizov is overpaid, especially if he winds up making more money than McDavid. It might be technically true, but that won't mean he's not holding up his part of the bargain. If he's a top player, worth something like $12 million, then there shouldn't be grumbling about his salary. It's the cost of doing business, and paying a superstar $16 million instead of $12 shouldn't be a thing that holds a true Cup contender back.

The Wild are apparently prepared to look past the sticker shock, and if they are willing to do so, why shouldn't the fans?