By Luke Sims -
What if I told you that the Minnesota Wild were ranked in the top 10 in the NHL in goals per game through the first quarter of the season?
However, they have been slipping down the rankings since then. It’s almost February, and they are 19th in the NHL with 2.36 goals per game.
Minnesota’s offensive slide coincides with their drop in the standings from first in the NHL to eighth. The Wild are only seven points up on the second Wild Card spot and a single game from being in the Wild Card.
There are several reasons for Minnesota’s slide. It starts with injuries, but the healthy players have been inconsistent, and the Wild have had poor special teams and defense.
The injuries are a big reason they’ve slipped in the standings. Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, and Joel Eriksson Ek are top six players who have missed time. Kaprizov is returning to the injured list to have surgery for a lingering lower-body injury. While he should return before the playoffs, Minnesota’s offensive production will dip in his absence.
Still, the lack of scoring from Minnesota’s powerplay is also to blame. The Wild score 19.4% of the time with the man advantage, 22nd in the NHL. They typically only run their top line out there, and the unit has suffered without Kaprizov.
Matt Boldy could mitigate some of the lack of offensive production in Kaprizov’s absence, but he’s had scoring droughts. Boldy only had two goals and seven points in December. The 23-year-old from Boston has turned it around at the start of the new year with 14 points in 12 games. Still, the Wild need him to keep up that pace to compensate for Kaprizov’s loss.
Minnesota’s depth scoring is pretty nonexistent. Ryan Hartman and Freddy Gaudreau have not been good. Hartman only has seven goals and 16 points after posting 45 last season, going 18 games without a point. Even when he’s been in a top-six role, he has struggled to produce consistently.
Gaudreau had a terrible season last year, scoring only 15 points, and needed to bounce back. However, he has only scored nine goals and 11 points through 50 games. Gaudreau is on pace to be better than last season but still down from his first two seasons in Minnesota, when he had 40 or more points.
Minnesota also needs more from Marcus Johansson. He was underwhelming before going on the injured list. With only five goals and 11 assists, it’s shaping up to be another mediocre season from Mojo. Yakov Trenin should also be able to provide some offense, but he may not score ten goals this season.
The Wild’s saving grace has been the point production from their defenseman when they are healthy and Marco Rossi. The Austrian has 17 goals and 27 assists. His 44 points are third on the Wild, and he’s held down the top-line center spot.
Brock Faber and Jake Middleton have had solid seasons from the back end, and the Wild needed them to supplement the lack of depth scoring. Jared Spurgeon is back healthy, and he can generate offense. He had 34 points in 2022-23, his last full season. Even Jonas Brodin, who should return from injury soon, is having a solid year offensively with 16 points.
Minnesota’s slip in defensive prowess has meant it must score more goals to win games. Since December 1, the Wild have allowed 3.39 goals per game, the fourth-most in the NHL. Earlier this month, they went to Nashville and allowed six goals to the worst 5v5 scoring team in the NHL.
The Wild’s lack of consistency from their depth, injuries, and faulty defense and special teams make scoring harder. It also helps explain their slide in the standings.
All stats and data via HockeyDB, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and CapWages unless otherwise noted.
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