What Does Zeev Buium Have To Do To Be In the Calder Conversation?

All the talk within the Minnesota Wild fanbase right now is centered around the Kirill Kaprizov contract saga. Between that and the Marco Rossi rigamarole, it's been easy to feel cynical about Minnesota’s offseason. Still, there are reasons to be excited about the upcoming season. One of the most intriguing storylines to watch will be how Zeev Buium performs in his rookie season.

Hockey Wilderness ranked the defender as the No. 1 prospect in the Wild's system and has already touched on the possibility that he may be in line for Calder Trophy consideration as the league's best rookie. Scott Wheeler backed up that opinion recently when he ranked Buium as the second-best contender for the trophy behind Ivan Demidov.

While there's significant buzz around Buium's rookie season, winning the Calder Trophy is no small feat. Let's take a look at what he'll have to achieve to join Kirill Kaprizov as the Wild's second rookie of the year.

Winning the Calder as a defender

It’s typically difficult for a defenseman to win the Calder Trophy. Defensemen generally take longer to develop and have trouble reaching the gaudy scoring numbers that their forward counterparts can accumulate. 

From the 1990-91 season until 2018-19, only three defenders (Bryan Berard, Barrett Jackman, and Aaron Ekblad) took home the honor. 

However, that has changed recently. We’re in a golden age of young defenders in the NHL. Three (Cale Makar, Moritz Seider, and Lane Hutson) of the last seven Calder winners are blueliners and represent some of the best young players in the game. 

Since we have some recent defensive Calder winners, we can gather insight into what Zeev Buium's season would need to look like to contend for the trophy.

From a purely statistical outlook, there are a few things that are clear about what it takes to win the Calder trophy as a defender. First, defensive winners must have impressive offensive seasons.

This offensive hallmark is particularly true for Makar and Hutson. Lane Hutson tied Larry Murphy's record for assists by a rookie defenseman en route to an impressive offensive season. Cale Makar was even better on a points-per-game basis and was especially lethal as a goal scorer from the blue line.

Moritz Seider was the least offensively potent of the three, but still had a productive season. He paired that with his physical game and took significant responsibility on the Detroit Red Wings’ blueline. All three players had impressive time-on-ice numbers, but Seider made it his calling card. His average time on ice was in the top 10% among all NHL defenders that year. 

Being able to contribute to the power play is also a crucial aspect of a Calder Trophy-winning defender's game. All three players became fixtures on their team's extra-man unit, allowing them to rack up points as distributors. 

Another thing that stands out is that all three players were 21 years old the season they won the Calder. That made them more experienced rookies than Buium will be when he turns 20 in December. An extra year of development can be crucial, especially for a young defender.

Can Buium meet lofty expectations?

Now that we know what a Calder-winning defender looks like, we can analyze whether it's realistic for Buium to reach those benchmarks. It can be challenging to forecast statistical output for a player who has never played in the NHL, but let's use the information we have.

We know that Buium should have a decent chance at attaining the time-on-ice needed to make noise come award season. According to a recent Michael Russo roster projection, Buium is slated to start the season on the Wild's third pairing.

(Source: The Athletic)

Even with that being the case, every defender except for Brock Faber has missed significant time in recent seasons. Jonas Brodin is already set to miss the start of the season with an injury. Buium should be the first in line to move up and fill those spots.

Buium also profiles as a potential power play quarterback, a role the Wild could really use him in. He should get the chance to play on the power play, the three most recent Calder-winning defenders.

The big question is whether he can replicate Cale Makar and Lane Hutson's scoring output. Buium seems more similar to those players than he does to Seider, so he'll have to have a similar performance. 

Buium, Makar, and Hutson all played NCAA hockey instead of coming up through the junior ranks. Let's examine all three of their final college seasons to gain some context regarding Buium’s development path.

It's eerie how similar the trio's final college seasons were. Their scoring numbers are essentially identical. While Makar and Hutson were a year older, it was also their second season in the NCAA, like it was Buium's.

Of course, there are other factors than the player's last season in development. Past success doesn't indicate that Buium is the same player as Makar or Hutson. But it does suggest that he's on a similar level to them at the same stage of development. 

College hockey regularly churns out high-level defensive products, boasting players like Quinn Hughes, Brock Faber, and Charlie McAvoy. It stands to reason that a standout collegiate career has a high chance of translating for Buium.

The competition

While Buium has the potential to have a great season, he will face a lot of competition for the Calder Trophy. This year's class of rookies is stacked on the blueline; four of the top five players Wheelers lists in his rankings are defenders. 

Buium is joined by Zayne Parekh (Calgary Flames), Alexander Nikishin (Carolina Hurricanes), and Sam Rinzel (Chicago Blackhawks) in the top five. 

All three of those players should have ample opportunity to earn the ice time they need to win the Calder.

Parekh is the youngest of the group of promising rookie defenders, and the Calgary Flames can still send him to juniors if it makes sense for his development.

Rinzel shared a similar path to Buium, developing at the University of Minnesota. He has demonstrated the most ability to adapt to the NHL, with an impressive nine-game stint in the NHL at the end of last season.

Nikishin is an intriguing prospect. Although this will be his first full season playing in North America, he's the oldest of the group of Calder hopeful defensemen. The blueliner is an experienced pro with three KHL seasons under his belt and will turn 24 in October. 

The rookie class is loaded, and the path won't be easy, but Buium has the kind of game that makes you believe he can rise to the challenge. If his style adapts to the NHL as well as past NCAA blueliners have, he can contribute at a high level immediately.

At the very least, watching his first steps in the NHL should be one of the most exciting storylines Minnesota fans have to look forward to next year.