By Kalisha Turnipseed -
Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin is ready to match a potential Marco Rossi offer sheet. That means NHL teams that want to trade for Rossi shouldn’t offer-sheet him because it makes it less likely Guerin will want to do business with them. However, it will force teams to be more creative in pursuing Rossi, where they can still trade for him if Guerin chooses not to match.
Sebastian Aho, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Dylan Holloway, and Philip Broberg are the most recent players who received offer sheets within the last decade. We’ll look into each case, except for Broberg, who’s a defenseman and not relevant to the Rossi situation.
Many teams, including the Vancouver Canucks, Buffalo Sabres, Chicago Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers, and Montreal Canadiens are interested in pursuing Rossi. They are trying to transition from wild-card and lottery teams to Stanley Cup contenders. Therefore, they're willing to offer-sheet a contract that Guerin doesn’t want to match.
What kind of contract would they offer Rossi? And what can we learn from recent offer sheets?
Let's look into the last three forwards who got an offer sheet:
Sebastian Aho (August, 2019)
5-year, $42.3 million ($8.46 million AAV)
The Montreal Canadiens caught Aho by surprise when they offered him a five-year contract worth $8.46 million AAV.
He signed it so that he could be ready for training camp rather than being left unsigned. However, he was pumped when he learned that the Carolina Hurricanes were going to match. Carolina sent the Canadiens a 2022 first-round pick and a 2022 third-round pick to complete the deal.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (August, 2021)
1-year, $6.1 million AAV
Carolina offered Kotkaniemi a one-year contract worth $6.1 million. The Hurricanes were well aware that the Canadiens didn't have the cap space to match it. The Habs didn't match it, and Carolina sent them a 2022 first-round pick and a 2022 third-round pick.
Dylan Holloway (August, 2024)
2-year, $4.58 million ($2.29 million AAV)
The Blues were looking to upgrade their forward group and took advantage of the Edmonton Oilers’ cap issues.
St. Louis offered Holloway a two-year, $4.58 million contract ($2.29 million AAV) and Broberg a two-year, $9.16 million contract ($4.58 million AAV). The Oilers weren't able to match, and they sent the Blues a 2025 third-round pick for Holloway and a 2025 second-round pick for Broberg.
Which type of offer sheet does Rossi sign?
It's reasonable for Rossi to sign an offer sheet that provides him with long-term security and financial stability. However, Aho was an established point-per-game player by the time he signed his offer sheet. So don't count on Rossi getting paid more than $8.5 million on a long-term deal.
Guerin didn't want to commit to Rossi for seven years at $7 million AAV. However, it's possible for either the Canucks, Blackhawks, or Canadiens to offer him a contract that's $7 million or more, with the seven-year term Rossi wants.
However, what if Rossi settles for a short-term deal where a team is willing to overpay for him, so Guerin doesn't match?
Carolina offered Kotkaniemi $6.1 million, and the Canadiens had no choice but to trade him. After Kotkaniemi's contract expired, he accepted an eight-year extension for $4.82 million AAV.
Could there be a deal where Rossi is offered $8.5 million to $9 million for a year, so that he accepts? If that's the case, then the Wild would be getting a first-round pick, a second-round pick, and a third-round pick as compensation.
Once he accepts, he'll become an RFA once again, where he will get more term on his next deal, but with less AAV. Will Guerin match, knowing he doesn't want to pay Rossi more than $5 million? Personally, I'd match if I'm Guerin. Rossi could accept a two-year deal that's also on the expensive side.
The Blackhawks have nearly $20.5 million in cap space, which they can easily overpay for Rossi on a short-term deal, as he will again become an RFA. The last thing that Guerin should allow is for a division rival like the Blackhawks to steal Rossi from him.
Don't be surprised to see the Blackhawks make a bold move. The Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks have at least $6 million more in cap space than the Blackhawks. They could make a surprise appearance.
Did these teams keep their compensation picks?
The Canadiens took their second first-round pick and dealt it to the Arizona Coyotes (now the Utah Mammoth) for Christian Dvorak to replace Kotkaniemi. The Oilers kept their third-round pick for Holloway to select Tommy Lafreniere at 83rd overall in the 2025 draft. Later, they traded their second-round pick to the Boston Bruins to move up in the 2025 draft to select William Moore at 51st overall.
Is it possible that Guerin uses his compensation picks for a bigger target, such as the 2026 trade deadline, if he does get compensated? Yes.
Much like how the Canadiens were able to replace Kotkaniemi with Dvorak, Guerin might have something up his sleeve to make a future splash if he chooses not to go further with Rossi in addressing his top-six.
The Wild should sign Rossi to avoid an offer sheet. They can't let Rossi go for compensation picks and end up with a hole at center to start the season. Aho, Kotkaniemi, and Holloway signed their offer sheets in August. Guerin has less than a month to take action on extending Rossi; otherwise, a team will offer him a qualifying offer sheet by the beginning of August.
Guerin is prepared for the unexpected, but is he willing to pay the price?
Count on Guerin to sign Rossi to a contract that will still be manageable for the team before the August deadline. Guerin has the chance of keeping Rossi, who fits into their young core moving forward.
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