What Does A Filip Gustavsson Extension Look Like?

Of all the teams that need to think long and hard about their future cap situation, the Minnesota Wild probably tops the list right now. 

With news that Kirill Kaprizov rejected an eight-year contract offer at the highest annual price in NHL history, the rest of the roster needs to squeeze every dollar of value available. 

Next in line for an extension is goaltender Filip Gustavsson. The Athletic’s Joe Smith reported recently that the Wild are “expected to start talks” with Gustavsson. With Kaprizov’s extension looming, can they afford to extend both players? 

With contributions from Shayna Goldman, Smith’s report also included a list of comparable contracts that Minnesota might use to build its offer. Based on that list, they concluded that Gustavsson’s AAV will likely fall between $6.5 million and $8 million. They also reported the estimate from the contract model at Evolving-Hockey.com, which was five years at $7.605 million. 

That gives us the bones of a contract projection. However, Smith and Goldman’s estimate leaves considerable room for negotiation. The difference between $6.5 million and $8 million per year would be nearly $10 million over the course of a six-year deal. 

Furthermore, that Evolving-Hockey projection smells funny to me. If you look into the comparables identified by The Athletic, no five-year deal has come close to that $7.605 AAV, even if converted into a percentage of the salary cap. 

In fact, separating these contracts by term reveals a significant divide between the middle class of NHL starters and the superstars: namely, only an elite goaltender can negotiate an eight-year term. That’s even more evident after filtering to only the comparables whose deals started in 2024 or 2025. 

Another interesting note: these comparables have a higher AAV as term increases, which is the opposite of standard practice in the NHL. On the other hand, it makes intuitive sense that teams would only commit long-term contracts to the goaltenders worth a large AAV. Goaltending can be extremely volatile. Once you’ve found a solution in net, make sure the problem is solved for a long time -- whatever the price. 

This reinforces the idea that only the NHL’s best goaltenders can acquire a maximum term, and also that Smith and Goldman pulled an extremely wide range of comparables. 

Diving into the performance of these 13 goaltenders in the three NHL seasons before their contracts were signed, it’s clear that the list of comparables should be narrowed. 

This list is sorted by MoneyPuck’s five-on-five Goals Saved Above Expected metric (GSAx). MoneyPuck estimates the probability of every shot attempt a goaltender faces. Using that probability, they estimate the number of goals an average goaltender would allow, then subtract the number of goals scored. The difference between those two numbers is GSAx. 

It’s fair to say that Blackwood, Merzlikins, and Vejmelka should be thrown out in this case. Saros’s numbers are so exceptional that they should be ignored as well. Daccord is perhaps in the correct ballpark, but Gustavsson is a step ahead. 

With a long list of comparables available, it’s probably best to filter out John Gibson and Elvis Merzlikins, since they were signed several years ago. Swayman and Oettinger are difficult to use because they signed as Restricted Free Agents (RFA), which drastically reduces their negotiating leverage. 

That leaves two reasonable comparables: Logan Thompson and Joey Daccord, with the important note that Gustavsson seems notably better than Daccord. Between these two data points, it feels clear that Gustavsson seems primed for a six-year contract, given the trend about term and performance noted above. 

Could Gustavsson’s camp make the case that he belongs in that upper tier of goaltenders? It may be easier than you think. Gustavsson struggled mightily in 2023-24, but the seasons before and after that were exceptional. His name was whispered in Vezina conversations for the 2023 Vezina Trophy, and he used the 2024 offseason to identify weaknesses in his game. That led to another solid season in 2024-25. 

Gustavsson picked up some bad habits amid the Wild’s horrific, injury-riddled 2023-24 season, which were compounded by an ineffective, injured defense. What does his recent performance look like if we ignore that ‘23-24 season? 

Oh, so that’s why The Athletic included Swayman and Saros. 

That opens the door to talking about seven or eight years, and perhaps pushing for 8% of the salary cap. However, that door isn’t swinging wide open. It’s only open a crack. To get here, you have to throw out Filip Gustavsson’s worst season over the past 3 years. If you draw lines around any of those comparable goaltender’s worst season, their numbers probably get better too. 

On the other hand, Gustavsson’s agent has a reasonable excuse to throw out that ‘23-24 season: he was playing behind something which barely resembled an NHL roster. Is it really fair to use data trained on NHL games against him if the team he played for was so different from a typical NHL team? 

Ultimately, Guerin should have a pretty good idea how true that is from his coaches and medical staff. However, it doesn’t matter if Guerin thinks Gus’s bad year was a fluke. Gus’s team has to convince one of the 31 other GMs that it was a fluke. If nobody else buys that, the door shuts quickly on any kind of long-term, $8 million AAV contract. 

Without input from Minnesota’s staff, it would be a leap of faith for any other GM to make that kind of offer. 

In the meantime, Gustavsson is under contract, and he has games to play. That gives Minnesota leverage, because Gustavsson has no security past this season. If he’s hurt, it could drastically affect his career earnings. Is it really worth that risk to hit free agency and try to convince somebody that Gustavsson can be a franchise goaltender? 

The answer could be yes -- it only takes two teams to start a bidding war. On the other hand, that seems like the only route to a long-term, high-value contract. 

If Gustavsson’s camp is motivated to get an extension done sooner, it will likely come in around six or seven years at around 6.5% to 7.5% of the salary cap -- an AAV around $6.76 to $7.8 million. The same is true if Gustavsson strikes out in free agency. 

Think of it this way: there are three potential outcomes for Gustavsson’s negotiation. 

1. He pushes to sign in-season, giving away upside for long-term security
2. He bets on himself, waits until free agency, but is disappointed with the market and ultimately signs a shorter, cheaper deal
3. He bets on himself, waits until free agency, and finds the market he’s hoping for

In two of those three scenarios, Minnesota gets a chance to sign Gustavsson on a team-friendly deal. 

1100 words, and still no X years by $X Million from the author? What a ripoff. Well then, let’s put them on the table. 

According to PuckPedia, Filip Gustavsson’s career earnings are just below $10 million. In the final year of this deal, that will climb to about $13 million. A six-year, $7 million AAV extension sure sounds good, even in a rapidly inflating cap environment. The $42 million on that deal quadruples his lifetime earnings, and it keeps him in the league through his age-33 season. 

It’s not nearly as much as a $64 million eight-year contract that could be out there for him if he stays healthy this year, but it’s no guarantee that anybody would pay that much even if he does stay healthy. 

That’s a lot of leverage for the Wild, and still a fair market rate for their franchise goaltender.