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  • What Can We Learn From Minnesota's Most Hyped Prospects Who Didn't Pan Out?


    Image courtesy of Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images
    Luke Sims

    The Minnesota Wild will rely on a wave of prospects to fill out their roster this season. With Zeev Buium, David Jiricek, Jesper Wallstedt, Liam Ohgren, and Danilla Yurov set to play roles on the NHL team this season, it’s time to look back at recent history and see how other hyped top prospects have fared.

    I’m not talking about established players like Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov. Those guys were well on their way to stardom. Buium is Minnesota’s most hyped prospect and debuted in the playoffs, but their other prospects are bigger unknowns. The others are good prospects whose development hasn't been as linear as the other stars.

    We still don’t know how Minnesota’s most hyped prospects will pan out. Still, a look back at some recent high-profile busts may give us some indication.

    Marat Khusnutdinov

    While the jury is still out on whether Khusnutdinov can score at the NHL level, there’s no doubt he belongs there. Once a prospect with Kaprizov-like numbers in the KHL, Khusnutdinov was one of the players the Wild hoped could become a building block.

    Kaprizov’s defensive metrics were solid with the Wild, but he was one of the worst offensive players in the NHL. Even on a better line, he didn’t show that he could elevate his game to the level that he’d need to be a meaningful offensive contributor.

    The Wild traded him to the Boston Bruins for a player the Wild no longer has on its roster. There’s still time for Khusnutdinov, but he may never become a scorer in the NHL.

    Adam Beckman

    Beckman is another recent example of a player. He’s a former third-round pick who tore up (107 points)  the WHL with the Spokane Chiefs but struggled to find his footing as an NHL player. He was always a solid offensive contributor for the AHL club, just never able to put those skills to use in the NHL.

    Beckman logged only three assists in 23 NHL games. The Wild traded him to the New Jersey Devils, who sent him to the New York Islanders. Minnesota acquired Graeme Clark, who’s no longer with the team.

    You could make the argument that he didn’t get a real chance, but the most likely case is that he just doesn’t have it. He’s a really good AHL player whose game hasn’t translated to the NHL.

    Calen Addison

    Acquired in the Jason Zucker trade, Addison was hailed as a future power-play quarterback. However, because Bill Guerin acquired him in one of his first transactions, Addison had a greater opportunity to prove that he belonged in the NHL. 

    Addison had a solid start to his career, scoring 29 points in 62 games. Still, disagreements over defensive ability with former Wild head coach Dean Evason led Addison to the press box. He never regained Evason’s trust, and Minnesota traded him to the San Jose Sharks. He has only played in the AHL since.

    Addison’s offensive upside could not keep pace with his defensive deficiencies, which led the Wild to remove him from the lineup. Now at 25 years old, it looks like Evason might have been right about Addison.

    Luke Kunin

    Kunin was supposed to be the solution for Minnesota up the middle. A homegrown, American leader who played college hockey at Wisconsin, the Wild took him 15th overall in 2016. Kunin was going to be the best center to come through Minnesota since Mikko Koivu, but his 31 points in his third season were a career-high.

    The Wild traded Kunin for the draft pick that they used on Khusnutdinov. Kunin has been unproductive since the trade, not eclipsing 30 points in any of his following seasons, playing for non-competitive teams in Nashville and San Jose. 

    Kunin was another low-floor, low-ceiling player who had his chance but didn’t develop the offensive skills the team had hoped he would. He’s got the chops on the defensive side of the game to stay in the league, but he’s a fourth liner at best.

    Jordan Greenway

    There are only a few individuals who walk this earth who can do the things that Greenway can do. At 6’6”, 321 lbs., Greenway is a massive addition to any forward group. His intangibles gave him a shot with the Wild. Throughout five seasons, he never truly showed what he was capable of and was never fully healthy. The Wild traded him to the Buffalo Sabres in (year), and he’s continued to be the same player.

    So what can we learn from all of this? 

    Besides the fact that the Wild apparently knows when it’s time to move on from a prospect, there’s a common thread. Production matters. All of these prospects were expected to deliver more, but they all fell short of expectations.

    Minnesota’s current prospect group still has time. Still, if production doesn’t materialize, they’ll be off to San Jose or Nashville sooner than we might think.

    All stats and data via HockeyDB unless otherwise noted.

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    All organizations hype their prospects.  Its part of the marketing.  Even when they don't deserve hype.  Like everyone of the guys on this list. 

    When people outside of the organization hype the prospects then you may have something.  

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    I know it's the dog days of summer for hockey fans, but just one or two typos in this article😁

    Kaprizov’s defensive metrics were solid with the Wild, but he was one of the worst offensive players in the NHL.

    At 6’6”, 321 lbs., Greenway is a massive addition to any forward group.

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    Gonna need a proofreader on this article:

    Quote

    Kaprizov’s defensive metrics were solid with the Wild, but he was one of the worst offensive players in the NHL.

    Quote

    At 6’6”, 321 lbs., Greenway is a massive addition to any forward group.

     

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    I think Khusnutdinov  was handled very poorly by the Wild. They threw him to the wolves when he should have been sent to Iowa for at least a year to get acclimated to North American hockey. Plus they buried him on the fourth line. It was like sending a Ferrari to Home Depot to pick up plywood. He has shown promise in Boston when elevated.

    I think the jury is still out on this one and the Wild may regret giving him away for nothing. That was another head scratcher by Guerin. I do get what he was trying to accomplish, but he either should've listened to his scouts or done more homework. Billy got fleeced again.

    Edited by Scalptrash
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    Maybe I look at draft picks in the NHL differently than most, but I wouldn't consider any of these guys "busts", besides maybe Kunin.

    Kunin was picked 15th.  He has played 434 games and has 142 points.  Definitely not great.  But of the 60 15th overall picks through 2023, only 20 have played in 300+ games and 22 reached 100+ points.  Kunin will probably get to 500 games this year, and only 16 have done that.  Granted he didn't turn into Joe Sakic, Al McInnis or Mike Bossy, who were all 15th picks, but he did better than the majority.

    Greenway and Khusnutdinov were both selected in the second round.  Greenway has played 435 games and has 159 points, and Khus has played in 91 games already.  Of players drafted in the second round, only 27% play in 300+ games and only 17% play in 500+.  As far as points go, 21% get to 100+ and 10% get to 300+.

    Third round picks like Beckham have even longer odds.  About half even play in 1 game, 28% play in 100+ and 17% play in 300+.

    I could be wrong, but I don't think the expectation for any of these guys amongst the "prospect pool experts", besides maybe Kunin, was to be anything more than bottom 6 players.

    I think the main problem that we have as fans is we expect every one of our prospects to hit and it just isn't reality.  With the 4 skaters we have this year, I would be happy if 2 of them become top pair players, and the other two become bottom pair players and the Wall becomes a capable NHL goalie.  Anything more than that would be a huge win.

     

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    47 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Greenway and Khusnutdinov were both selected in the second round.  Greenway has played 435 games and has 159 points, and Khus has played in 91 games already.  Of players drafted in the second round, only 27% play in 300+ games and only 17% play in 500+.  As far as points go, 21% get to 100+ and 10% get to 300+.

    While Greener got flack here for being a lazy slob who only ate pizza, he seems to be doing well out in Buffalo, might not have figured out his offensive side of the puck, but has been a key guy on the penalty kill:

    Sounds like he was injured for a stretch last season, but also is a well liked player in their locker room.

    https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/buffalo-sabres-jordan-greenway-season-recap-season-in-review-injury

    It's odd to see him mentioned along side guys like Addison, who have failed to stick in the NHL. 

     

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