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By Tony Abbott -
After his two goals propelled the Minnesota Wild to a 4-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Friday night, can there be any doubt that Matt Boldy is the biggest winner of the John Hynes Era? In the three months since Hynes' Minnesota debut on November 28, Boldy has 22 goals and 39 points in 39 games. Those 22 goals are tied for sixth in the NHL over that span, alongside MVP candidate Nikita Kucherov.
Notably, it also edges out his linemates, Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek (20 and 18 goals, respectively). Boldy seems to have flipped a switch after struggling out of the gate under Dean Evason and dealing with an injury. Boldy notched only one goal and seven assists through his first 12 games.
Overall, though, Boldy's 50 games have him on pace to hit 34 goals and 69 points in 75 games this year. It's a comfortable step up in career highs from last year (31 goals, 63 points) despite playing six fewer games. But that slow start, combined with this level of sheer dominance he's showing, has to have people wondering what Boldy can do if he just puts it together for an entire year.
The thing is: We already know. Because he's essentially put it together for an entire year.
Just flip back a calendar year to February 25, 2023. Boldy was just games away from the outburst of scoring that came after being grouped with Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson at the trade deadline. Take his final 22 games from last year and put them with this season's production, and you have the following stat line from the last calendar year:
38 Goals, 71 Points, 73 Games
Suddenly, we have an excellent idea of what Boldy can do for an entire season. So, instead of simply evaluating Boldy based on what he's done from October to now, let's pretend the last calendar year is a full season. Are we using arbitrary endpoints? Sure, but also: Who cares? The dirty little secret of endpoints is that they're all arbitrary.
Thanks to Natural Stat Trick, we can search back to see how the NHL has done from the calendar year of February 25, 2023, to Saturday, February 24, 2024. How does Boldy's year stack up with the NHL's best over the last 365 days?
Turns out: a 37-goal, 70-point season is pretty good! Not the most elite of elites, of course. Those distinctions would go to Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Kucherov, who each have 130-plus(!!!) points over the last calendar year. Still, 71 points ties him at 39th in the NHL over that stretch.
That's great in itself. But when you look at the most direct impact on goals, Boldy fares even better. Of Boldy's 71 points, 63 are either goals or primary assists (the assist occurring directly before the goal). We drop everyone else's secondary assists from the equation, and Boldy moves up to a share of 23rd place in the league. Say hi to Robert Thomas and Claude Giroux, who match Boldy over that time.
Beyond his all-situation prowess, Boldy's last calendar year has seen him become an absolute monster at 5-on-5 play. With 27 goals at 5-on-5, Boldy is tied with Mikko Rantanen for sixth in the NHL. While his overall points (44) "only" ranks 30th in the NHL over that time, his primary points again put him among the league's best. Dropping the secondary assists from the league's point totals vaults Boldy to a tie for 10th in the league. Boldy's 41 primary points in the past year are identical to Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl, Brady Tkachuk, and Carter Verhaeghe.
Lastly, we have to contextualize all this with the fact that Boldy's put up this kind of year at 22 years old. We've rarely seen a player have a season this great, this young, at least for the data that we have. Here's how Boldy's Primary Points per 60 at 5-on-5 (min. 700 minutes) over the last calendar year stacks up among all Under-23 players since 2007-08:
1. 2009-10 Sidney Crosby (age 22): 2.84
2. 2020-21 Auston Matthews (22): 2.83
3. 2007-08 Sidney Crosby (21): 2.74
4. 2017-18 Auston Matthews (18): 2.59
5. 2018-19 Mitch Marner (21): 2.57
6. Since 02/25/2023 MATT BOLDY (22): 2.53
7. 2007-08 Alex Ovechkin (21): 2.50
T-8. 2011-12 Steven Stamkos (21): 2.47
T-8. 2020-21 Jason Robertson (21): 2.47
T-10. 2017-18 Nathan MacKinnon: 2.46
T-10. 2013-14 Tyler Seguin: 2.46
This list is a pretty convincing argument that the best players at 5-on-5 are the best players in general. There are eight players on this list, aside from this unofficial Boldy campaign. All but Marner have scored 40-plus goals in a season. All but Seguin and Marner have 100-point seasons (and Marner's career high is 99). Four (Crosby, Matthews, Ovechkin, and Stamkos) have Rocket Richard trophies. Three (Crosby, Matthews, and Ovechkin) have Hart Trophies, and MacKinnon will probably bring that list to four in the not-too-distant future.
The last 24 games of the year (and, if applicable, playoffs) will determine whether Boldy's season will be viewed as him hitting his full potential or leaving something on the table. Maybe treating seasons in isolation is objectively the best way to view his progress. But perhaps we can also look at these last 365 days and treat them as the Year of Matt Boldy. If we do, there can be no doubt.
He's arrived as a truly elite player.
All data via Evolving Hockey unless otherwise indicated.
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