By Justin Wiggins -
Playing goalie in the NHL is hard. Like, really hard.
Today's game is moving faster than ever, and the skaters are more skilled than ever. Nowhere does this ring true more than when you analyze goaltending statistics of the last ten years as league-wide save percentages have dropped consistently year over year.
And the position has never been more difficult to project. Every year, there’s a goalie who is typically viewed as a top goaltender but struggles. Conversely, there’s almost always a mid-range goalie who comes out of nowhere to compete for the Vezina trophy. Knowing that, why did we not see this season from Filip Gustavsson coming?
It’s been a trying season for the “Gus Bus.” Following his breakout campaign last year, which resulted in a fancy new contract extension, Gustavsson hasn’t been the same player in goal for the Minnesota Wild. Gustavsson was one of the top goaltenders in the league last year. He finished second in save percentage, just behind Vezina trophy winner Linus Ullmark.
He also produced strong advanced metrics, placing himself in the top-10 in goals saved above expected (GSAx), even with far fewer games played than the rest of that group. It was a magical season for Gustavsson, and the Wild rewarded him with a three-year, $11.25 million extension.
However, this season has been markedly worse for Gustavsson across all metrics. His save percentage has plummeted to below .900, and his GSAx has gone from +24.54 a year ago to -9.94 this season in nearly as many games played.
Beyond the statistics, the eye test has also revealed the downturn in his game. Gustavsson has struggled to track pucks in certain games. Remember that epic comeback against the Vancouver Canucks on Presidents' Day? Gustavsson might be the only member of the State of Hockey who would rather forget it ever happened.
Sure, I’d be remiss not to point out that Gustavsson missed a chunk of the season due to injury, and perhaps that injury is still hampering him. Still, the rumblings have begun with his last couple of performances and the Wild fighting for a playoff spot. But is that fair?
Because if you compare the teeter-totter nature of Gustavsson’s past two seasons to the rest of the league, it’s pretty par for the course. Goaltending has become an impossible guessing game over the past decade in the NHL. League-wide save percentages are down to levels we haven’t seen since the beginning of the post-lockout era. In 2016, the average save percentage was still holding at .915, but that number had plunged to .904 by 2022-23.
Even the most recognizable names in the sport have not been immune to such volatility from year to year. Jacob Markstrom finished second in the Vezina trophy voting two years ago, posting a .922 SV% and a league-high nine shutouts. A year later, Markstrom finished with a save percentage below .900 and a GSAx hovering at zero.
More perplexing is how Markstrom’s game has returned to Vezina-level this year. A year after being unable to stop nine of ten pucks coming his way, Markstrom is back toward the top of the league in save percentage and GSAx.
Even one of the league’s best and most consistent netminders, Igor Shesterkin, is stuck in inexplainable season-to-season goaltending regressions. Ever since he arrived in New York and Henrik Lundqvist passed him the torch, Shesterkin has planted himself as a top-3 goalie in the league. He finished first in Vezina voting in 2021-22 and was a finalist again last year. But Shesterkin finds himself in goalie purgatory this season. His save percentage is down to .907, and his GSAx has gone from otherworldly to slightly above average.
His tandem partner, Jonathan Quick, is having a resurgent season, but nobody believes it’s time to move on from Shesterkin. Why? Because that’s where we are in the NHL landscape of goaltending today. It’s an extremely difficult position to play today due to the decades-long rule changes to promote more scoring.
These inconsistent seasons have become the norm in the NHL. Just ask the likes of Jordan Binnington, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Andrei Vasilevskiy, who have experienced tough seasons sandwiched between all-time great performances.
While Gustavsson’s recent performance has made life difficult for a team attempting to get back into a playoff position, it’s certainly understandable. The best in the world have a few seasons of mortality. Therefore, it’s probably fair to expect the same from Gustavsson, who the Ottawa Senators recently cast aside.
Not to mention, his contract also reflects such results. Gustavsson is 29th in AAV this year among all goaltenders. The Wild aren’t paying him for Vezina-level production.
So, while Gustavsson’s season has been disappointing compared to last year, his inconsistency year to year is common in the rest of the league. It speaks to how crucial it is to have two goaltenders who can occasionally help each other carry the load.
The hope is Gustavsson can rebound next year to provide results falling somewhere in the middle of these past two seasons. The Wild are counting on it because immediately turning the crease over to an emerging but inexperienced Jesper Wallstedt would be a tough ask. In the meantime, patience is the game with Gus Bus.
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