There's A Lot Riding On Jesper Wallstedt's Bounceback Season

One tough season isn't going to derail the Minnesota Wild's plans to have Jesper Wallstedt become "The Great Wall of St. Paul." But jeez, what a tough season last year was. After holding his own as a goalie in the AHL, posting a .908 and .910 save percentage during his first two North American pro seasons, things fell apart.

Wallstedt had an abysmal .879 save percentage, surrendering five or more goals in seven of his 27 appearances. It was a season that dramatically dropped his stock. He went from being The Athletic's Scott Wheeler's No. 1-ranked goalie last July to No. 12 this year.

The Wild are banking on the bounceback next year, partly because they have to. Marc-André Fleury's retirement means that at least 22 starts are now up for grabs. And honestly, there's room to take up even more playing time in St. Paul. Filip Gustavsson took on the sixth-biggest workload in hockey, starting 58 times. That's not crazy for an undisputed No. 1 goalie, but the Wild would surely like the luxury of pushing that number closer to 50.

Minnesota doesn't just need 22 to 26 reliable starts, though. They need to know that there's a safe Plan B in case something goes wrong. They had that last year. Fleury showed his age (.899 save%), but he was a credible NHL option who could start for stretches in case of injury. There's no Fleury to act as that buffer this season. Cal Petersen is the Wild's third starter/AHL goalie, and he hasn't had 10 or more NHL starts since the 2021-22 season.

If Gustavsson gets hurt, or reverts back to his 2023-24 form, The Great Wall of St. Paul is all that stands between making the playoffs or missing big.

Wallstedt is ready for the challenge.

"Now, after three seasons in the AHL, the goal is clearly to crack the NHL," he told Uffe Bodin (in Swedish, translated to English) at Daily Faceoff earlier this week. "I believe I’m capable of that when I’m at my best – but I still have to work on some things around my game. That’s definitely where I want to be."

But ready or not, it's go-time for the 22-year-old. And it's not just because the Wild are seeking to take the next step in contention now that their buyout-induced cap hell is over. Whether Wallstedt plays 25, 55, or even zero games, this year is going to go a long way to determine Minnesota's future in net.

Perhaps thanks to the increase in cap space league-wide, the goalie market is climbing up. Solid-but-unspectacular goalies like Mackenzie Blackwood, Logan Thompson, and Adin Hill are getting inked to five/six-year deals in the $5.25 to $6.25 million cap hit range. The top end of the market -- think Jake Oettinger, Jeremy Swayman, and Linus Ullmark -- is sitting at around $8-8.5 million.

This matters a ton because Gustavsson will become a UFA next season. He's had ups and downs in St. Paul, but during his time in Minnesota, he has an overall save percentage of .914. You can give the Wild's defense a ton of the credit, but the fact remains that only Connor Hellebuyck, Ullmark, and Anthony Stolarz have a higher save percentage while facing 3,000-plus shot attempts over that time.

Minnesota probably has to start with the assumption that Gustavsson's next contract will begin with a "6." It might even get to an "8" with another strong season, and maybe a "9" with an elite one.

How much do the Wild want to foot that bill? Fair or not, that's going to depend entirely on how much confidence Wallstedt builds this year.

If Wallstedt can thrive in 30 games and show that he's capable of handling a bigger workload next year, the Wild have options. They might be able to offer Gustavsson a lucrative two-year deal to stay in a good situation, then allow him to cash in later. Minnesota could also just declare Wallstedt their starter, then set about finding a reliable, but cost-effective backup.

But if Wallstedt can't inspire that confidence, the Wild don't have the luxury of walking away from a Gustavsson contract that's not to their liking. They're either going to have to pay market-rate for Gustavsson, find another starting-caliber goalie, or roll the dice with a young goalie who struggled two seasons in a row. 

Neither of the latter two options would be particularly good. Teams like the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche have tried to go cheaper and cheaper in net, only to bottom out before course-correcting with Blackwood and Jacob Markstrom, respectively. It's already not easy to find solid goaltending, and it's only going to get more difficult.

Unless Wallstedt wrests the starting job from Gustavsson entirely next season, there's not going to be a scenario where next year's goalie decision will feel easy. Still, Wallstedt has the power to make the Wild feel reasonably comfortable with however it goes, or make the entire State of Hockey incredibly nervous as Summer 2026 approaches.